Provident Financial Holdings AI Stock Analysis
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Provident Financial Holdings (PROV) AI Stock Analysis
Provident Financial Holdings
(NASDAQ:PROV)
PROV scores around the low-60s primarily due to steady-but-mixed financial performance (revenue rebound and solid free cash flow offset by margin compression and still-elevated leverage). Earnings-call commentary adds support through strong credit quality and expected (but slowing) margin expansion. Technical signals are neutral-to-soft and keep the overall score from moving higher, while valuation and the dividend provide moderate support.
Provident Financial Holdings (PROV) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
- Market Cap
- $111.47M
- Dividend Yield
- 3.07%
- Average Volume (3M)
- 16.72K
- Price to Earnings (P/E)
- 17.8
- Beta (1Y)
- 0.37
- Revenue Growth
- 0.19%
- EPS Growth
- 13.85%
- Country
- US
- Employees
- 137
- Sector
- Financial
- Sector Strength
- 68
- Industry
- Banks - Regional
Provident Financial Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Provident Financial Holdings, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for Provident Savings Bank, F.S.B. that provides community banking and financial services in Southern California, the United States. The company offers deposit products, such as...
How the Company Makes Money
Provident Financial Holdings generates earnings primarily through its banking subsidiary by (1) earning interest income on loans and investment securities and (2) paying interest on deposits and other funding sources, with the difference between thes...
Provident Financial Holdings Earnings Call Summary
The call was predominantly positive, supported by stable loan activity, strong credit quality, net interest margin expansion, higher-yielding loan repricing, operating efficiency efforts, and substantial capital strength and shareholder returns. The main challenges were a higher provision for credit losses, expected moderation in margin expansion as funding costs reprice higher, and seasonal origination headwinds.
Q1-2027 Updates
Positive Updates
Negative Updates
Company Guidance
Management expects loan origination volume in the December 2026 quarter to remain within the range of recent quarters, between $29 million and $46 million, with continued moderation in loan prepayment activity; it also expects to “gin up some growth” in the December quarter and perhaps in the March quarter. Approximately $116 million of loans are repricing about 65 basis points higher, to a weighted average interest rate of 7.21% from 6.56%, while new origination volume is expected to be “maybe coming in at 150 basis points higher” than the existing loan portfolio; approximately $104.9 million of maturing wholesale funding at a weighted average interest rate of 3.94% is expected to reprice “somewhat higher.” Management expects net interest margin to expand in the December quarter, but “at a lower amount” than the 11 basis points from the June to September quarter, with the September quarter adjusted for the Federal Home Loan Bank special cash dividend at about 3.22% versus 3.21% in June.
Provident Financial Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income statement trends are mixed: TTM revenue rebounded sharply, but longer-term growth is choppy and profitability has compressed versus prior peaks. Cash flow is a relative strength with solid TTM free cash flow and strong conversion vs. net income, though operating cash flow metrics show volatility. Balance sheet leverage has improved from recent highs but remains elevated versus earlier years, limiting flexibility.
Income Statement
62PositiveBalance Sheet
55NeutralCash Flow
68Positive| Breakdown | TTM | Jun 2026 | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 60.19M | 59.62M | 60.16M | 58.67M | 50.07M | 39.45M |
| Gross Profit | 40.03M | 40.61M | 39.67M | 38.93M | 40.69M | 38.77M |
| EBITDA | 16.23M | 9.64M | 12.36M | 13.54M | 15.60M | 17.71M |
| Net Income | 6.55M | 6.66M | 6.25M | 7.35M | 8.59M | 9.09M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.21B | 1.21B | 1.25B | 1.27B | 1.33B | 1.19B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 138.49M | 49.21M | 53.16M | 53.23M | 68.00M | 26.09M |
| Total Debt | 172.04M | 157.05M | 213.07M | 238.50M | 235.01M | 85.00M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.08B | 1.08B | 1.12B | 1.14B | 1.20B | 1.06B |
| Stockholders Equity | 125.44M | 126.22M | 128.54M | 129.94M | 129.69M | 128.65M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 10.59M | 8.54M | 8.15M | 4.10M | 15.58M | 11.63M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 10.86M | 8.97M | 8.69M | 5.68M | 16.32M | 11.79M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 21.67M | 31.50M | 26.46M | 45.06M | -109.90M | -51.75M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -28.69M | -44.35M | -33.43M | -65.22M | 136.01M | -6.90M |
Provident Financial Holdings Technical Analysis
Price Trends
Market Momentum
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PROV, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 18.24 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 18.05, above the 50-day MA of 18.19, and above the 200-day MA of 17.03, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.00 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 61.35 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 13.47 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for PROV.
Provident Financial Holdings Risk Analysis
Provident Financial Holdings disclosed 27 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Provident Financial Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Latest Risks Added
3 New RisksProvident Financial Holdings Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
MGYR78Outperform
AUBN73Outperform
UNB63Neutral- PROV60Neutral
PBHC58Neutral
RVSB49Neutral
Financial Indicators
| Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MGYR | 78Outperform | $140.60M | 10.75 | 10.23% | 1.91% | 8.91% | 30.08% |
| AUBN | 73Outperform | $90.20M | 10.24 | 9.42% | 4.17% | 4.68% | 21.56% |
| Sector * | 68Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% |
| UNB | 63Neutral | $112.39M | 8.68 | 15.07% | 6.31% | 6.11% | 5.22% |
| PROV | 60Neutral | $111.96M | 17.84 | 5.18% | 3.07% | 0.19% | 13.85% |
| PBHC | 58Neutral | $104.04M | -41.47 | 0.08% | 2.43% | -6.61% | -78.36% |
| RVSB | 49Neutral | $128.30M | -44.47 | -2.02% | 1.24% | -10.03% | -162.70% |
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
| Show on chart | Ticker | Company Name | Price | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PROV | Provident Financial Holdings | 18.24 | 3.23 | 21.55% | |
| AUBN | Auburn National Bancorporation | 25.93 | 1.78 | 7.38% | |
| MGYR | Magyar Bancorp | 21.94 | 5.73 | 35.37% | |
| PBHC | Pathfinder | 16.70 | 2.24 | 15.49% | |
| RVSB | Riverview | 6.47 | 1.24 | 23.66% | |
| UNB | Union Bankshares, Inc. | 22.84 | 2.38 | 11.64% |
Provident Financial Holdings Corporate Events
Provident Financial Holdings Reports Weaker Fiscal Q1 Earnings
NegativeOn October 27, 2026, Provident Financial Holdings reported results for the first quarter of fiscal 2027 ended September 30, 2026, posting net income of $1.57 million, or $0.25 per diluted share, down 28 percent from the preceding quarter and six perc...
Provident Financial Announces New Share Repurchase Authorization
PositiveOn October 22, 2026, Provident Financial Holdings announced that its board authorized a new stock repurchase plan covering up to five percent of its common shares, or about 305,477 shares, to begin after the existing January 2026 plan is completed or...
Provident Financial Holdings Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend
PositiveProvident Financial Holdings, Inc., traded on NASDAQ GS under the ticker PROV, is the holding company for Provident Savings Bank, F.S.B., based in Riverside, California. The company operates in the banking and financial services industry, focusing on...
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.
Date of analysis: Nov 07, 2026