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FirstGroup (FGROY) AI Stock Analysis
FirstGroup
(Other OTC:FGROY)
The overall score is constrained by a mixed financial picture, where strong cash flows and a solid balance sheet are offset by very thin profitability. The primary risk is the technical setup, with extremely overbought momentum indicators signaling a likely short-term reversal despite the stock's recent upward trend. Attractive valuation and a healthy dividend yield provide some support.
FirstGroup (FGROY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
- Market Cap
- $1.55B
- Dividend Yield
- 3.29%
- Average Volume (3M)
- 1,378
- Price to Earnings (P/E)
- 9.9
- Beta (1Y)
- 0.51
- Revenue Growth
- -1.44%
- EPS Growth
- 5.88%
- Country
- US
- Employees
- 30,513
- Sector
- Industrials
- Sector Strength
- 63
- Industry
- Railroads
FirstGroup Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
FirstGroup plc provides public transport services in the United Kingdom. It operates through First Bus and First Rail segments. The First Bus segment offers local bus services with a fleet of approximately 5,800 buses and coaches in the United Kingdo...
How the Company Makes Money
FirstGroup makes money primarily by operating bus services and earning revenue from passenger transportation and transport-related contracts. A key revenue stream is passenger fares collected on commercial bus routes (e.g., single and return tickets,...
FirstGroup Earnings Call Summary
The earnings call reflects a strong performance in revenue growth and operational efficiencies, particularly in the bus and rail segments, despite economic challenges and a decline in bus volumes. The company's efforts in sustainability and expanding rail services are noteworthy achievements.
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Negative Updates
Company Guidance
In FirstGroup's 2026 Half Year Results Presentation, the company reported strong financial performance despite facing economic challenges. Adjusted revenue, excluding national rail contract revenues, increased by 30% to GBP 834 million, largely due to the acquisition of First Bus London. Adjusted earnings per share rose by 16% to 9.9p, supported by the repurchase of approximately 22 million shares. The Board proposed an interim dividend of 2.2p per share, marking a 29% increase from the previous year. First Bus achieved a 24% reduction in lost mileage to 1.3% and improved its Net Promoter Score to plus 15. The company also completed a business restructure, delivering an annualized overhead saving of GBP 15 million. The open access rail operations maintained a seat miles capacity utilization of 67%, and FirstGroup secured rolling stock for a new Stirling to London Houston service, expected to be operational by mid-2026. The company is advancing its sustainability initiatives, launching First Charge and investing in Palmer Energy Technology for battery storage. Overall, FirstGroup is focused on driving operational efficiencies, enhancing customer service, and advancing its U.K. growth and diversification strategy.
FirstGroup Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Financial performance is mixed. Strong cash flow generation and a healthy balance sheet with declining leverage are positives. However, very low gross and net margins and a recent revenue decline weigh on the score.
Income Statement
40NegativeBalance Sheet
70PositiveCash Flow
70Positive| Breakdown | TTM | Mar 2026 | Mar 2025 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 4.78B | 4.83B | 4.65B | 4.26B | 3.86B | 2.93B |
| Gross Profit | 136.79M | 137.91M | 1.81B | 1.57B | 829.30M | 2.90B |
| EBITDA | 757.76M | 712.20M | 849.80M | 656.30M | 896.70M | 875.40M |
| Net Income | 119.11M | 120.22M | 127.50M | -15.90M | 87.10M | 636.40M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 3.10B | 3.10B | 3.66B | 3.81B | 4.41B | 3.83B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 432.02M | 432.02M | 171.40M | 496.50M | 791.40M | 787.70M |
| Total Debt | 1.16B | 1.16B | 1.35B | 1.63B | 2.07B | 1.41B |
| Total Liabilities | 2.38B | 2.38B | 2.95B | 3.17B | 3.66B | 2.95B |
| Stockholders Equity | 710.04M | 710.04M | 696.70M | 633.30M | 740.20M | 876.60M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 383.04M | 384.86M | 597.80M | 324.00M | 395.90M | -186.20M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 625.84M | 630.59M | 754.20M | 543.30M | 573.80M | 65.40M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -192.09M | -194.21M | -150.90M | -10.20M | 79.40M | 2.08B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -456.51M | -460.88M | -641.50M | -776.30M | -640.90M | -2.89B |
FirstGroup Technical Analysis
Price Trends
Market Momentum
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FGROY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 2.92 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.70, above the 50-day MA of 2.50, and above the 200-day MA of 2.39, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.13 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 79.79 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 79.75 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for FGROY.
FirstGroup Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
RJET74Outperform- FGROY58.5Neutral
ALGT50Neutral
VLRS48Neutral
ULCC47Neutral
JBLU43Neutral
Financial Indicators
| Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RJET | 74Outperform | $904.55M | 9.03 | 7.12% | 2.62% | 437.81% | ― |
| Sector * | 63Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% |
| FGROY | 59Neutral | $1.49B | 9.89 | 17.75% | 3.29% | -1.44% | 5.88% |
| ALGT | 50Neutral | $1.95B | 50.24 | 2.10% | ― | 12.24% | ― |
| VLRS | 48Neutral | $734.05M | -3.35 | -151.82% | ― | 18.55% | -248.20% |
| ULCC | 47Neutral | $1.49B | -3.58 | -186.46% | ― | 23.97% | -200.15% |
| JBLU | 43Neutral | $1.08B | -1.05 | -58.36% | ― | 9.87% | -104.29% |
* Industrials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
| Show on chart | Ticker | Company Name | Price | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FGROY | FirstGroup plc Unsponsored ADR | 2.90 | 0.27 | 10.21% | |
| ALGT | Allegiant Travel | 71.34 | 13.31 | 22.94% | |
| JBLU | JetBlue Airways Corp | 2.85 | -1.23 | -30.15% | |
| VLRS | Controladora Vuela Compania de Aviacion SAB de CV ADR Class A | 6.41 | 0.03 | 0.47% | |
| RJET | Republic Airways Holdings Inc. | 19.32 | -0.48 | -2.42% | |
| ULCC | Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. | 6.45 | 2.85 | 79.17% |
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.
Date of analysis: Oct 19, 2026