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FirstGroup
(OTC:FGROY)
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Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:
$3.00
▲(20.97% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/19/26
The score is driven primarily by improving but still thin and volatile fundamentals (profitability recovery and solid cash flow offset by a 2026 revenue decline and weak margins), supported by attractive valuation (low P/E and healthy dividend). Technicals add a positive trend signal, though very overextended momentum readings temper the overall result.
Positive Factors
Profitability Recovery
The return to positive earnings after the 2024 loss indicates meaningful operational recovery and improves the company’s ability to fund investment, service obligations, and potentially return capital. If sustained, this provides a stronger earnings base over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Revenue Slowdown
The 2026 revenue contraction interrupts the prior multi-year expansion trend and indicates that growth has lost momentum. Sustained weakness in revenue would limit operating leverage, constrain investment capacity, and make future earnings improvement more dependent on cost control than on expanding demand.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Profitability Recovery
The return to positive earnings after the 2024 loss indicates meaningful operational recovery and improves the company’s ability to fund investment, service obligations, and potentially return capital. If sustained, this provides a stronger earnings base over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
FirstGroup (FGROY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.43B
Dividend Yield3.37%
Average Volume (3M)0.00
Price to Earnings (P/E)9.7
Beta (1Y)0.53
Revenue Growth-1.44%
EPS Growth5.88%
CountryUS
Employees30,513
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryRailroads
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.21
Shares Outstanding533,752,000
10 Day Avg. Volume0
30 Day Avg. Volume0
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.80
Price to Book (P/B)1.47
Price to Sales (P/S)0.22
P/FCF Ratio2.72
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.25M
Enterprise Value/Revenue374.76K
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit13.10M
Enterprise Value/Ebitda2.37M
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
FirstGroup Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
FirstGroup plc provides public transport services in the United Kingdom. It operates through First Bus and First Rail segments. The First Bus segment offers local bus services with a fleet of approximately 5,800 buses and coaches in the United Kin...
How the Company Makes Money
FirstGroup makes money primarily by operating bus services and earning revenue from passenger transportation and transport-related contracts. A key revenue stream is passenger fares collected on commercial bus routes (e.g., single and return ticke...
FirstGroup Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Nov 18, 2025
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 25, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflects a strong performance in revenue growth and operational efficiencies, particularly in the bus and rail segments, despite economic challenges and a decline in bus volumes. The company's efforts in sustainability and expanding rail services are noteworthy achievements.Positive Updates
Significant Revenue Growth
Group adjusted revenue increased by 30% to GBP 834 million, driven largely by the acquisition of First Bus London.
Negative Updates
Inflation and National Insurance Challenges
Faced headwinds from inflation and increased national insurance, impacting bus and rail revenue improvements.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Significant Revenue Growth
Group adjusted revenue increased by 30% to GBP 834 million, driven largely by the acquisition of First Bus London.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
In FirstGroup's 2026 Half Year Results Presentation, the company reported strong financial performance despite facing economic challenges. Adjusted revenue, excluding national rail contract revenues, increased by 30% to GBP 834 million, largely due to the acquisition of First Bus London. Adjusted earnings per share rose by 16% to 9.9p, supported by the repurchase of approximately 22 million shares. The Board proposed an interim dividend of 2.2p per share, marking a 29% increase from the previous year. First Bus achieved a 24% reduction in lost mileage to 1.3% and improved its Net Promoter Score to plus 15. The company also completed a business restructure, delivering an annualized overhead saving of GBP 15 million. The open access rail operations maintained a seat miles capacity utilization of 67%, and FirstGroup secured rolling stock for a new Stirling to London Houston service, expected to be operational by mid-2026. The company is advancing its sustainability initiatives, launching First Charge and investing in Palmer Energy Technology for battery storage. Overall, FirstGroup is focused on driving operational efficiencies, enhancing customer service, and advancing its U.K. growth and diversification strategy.FirstGroup Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
58
Neutral
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
Cash Flow
62
Positive
| Breakdown | Mar 2026 | Mar 2025 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 4.83B | 4.65B | 4.26B | 3.86B | 2.93B |
| Gross Profit | 137.91M | 1.81B | 1.57B | 829.30M | 2.90B |
| EBITDA | 712.20M | 849.80M | 656.30M | 896.70M | 875.40M |
| Net Income | 120.22M | 127.50M | -15.90M | 87.10M | 636.40M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 3.10B | 3.66B | 3.81B | 4.41B | 3.83B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 432.02M | 171.40M | 496.50M | 791.40M | 787.70M |
| Total Debt | 1.16B | 1.35B | 1.63B | 2.07B | 1.41B |
| Total Liabilities | 2.38B | 2.95B | 3.17B | 3.66B | 2.95B |
| Stockholders Equity | 710.04M | 696.70M | 633.30M | 740.20M | 876.60M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 384.86M | 597.80M | 324.00M | 395.90M | -186.20M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 630.59M | 754.20M | 543.30M | 573.80M | 65.40M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -194.21M | -150.90M | -10.20M | 79.40M | 2.08B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -460.88M | -641.50M | -776.30M | -640.90M | -2.89B |
FirstGroup Technical Analysis
Positive
2.48
Price Trends
2.44
Positive
2.41
Positive
2.37
Positive
Market Momentum
0.10
Negative
85.77
Negative
99.24
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FGROY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 2.48 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.52, above the 50-day MA of 2.44, and above the 200-day MA of 2.37, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.10 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 85.77 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 99.24 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for FGROY.
FirstGroup Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
67 Neutral | $1.43B | 9.65 | 17.75% | 3.37% | -1.44% | 5.88% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
58 Neutral | $759.88M | -4.52 | 4.88% | 3.06% | 299.75% | 87.78% | |
51 Neutral | $649.23M | -3.54 | -93.84% | ― | 9.97% | -472.97% | |
49 Neutral | $1.89B | 49.33 | 2.10% | 4.09% | 12.24% | ― | |
46 Neutral | $1.16B | -2.98 | -120.34% | ― | 9.95% | -1057.36% | |
45 Neutral | $1.10B | -1.22 | -45.51% | ― | 3.99% | -119.13% |
* Industrials Sector Average
FGROY
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.