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First Guaranty Bancshares (FGBI) AI Stock Analysis

FGBI

First Guaranty Bancshares

(NASDAQ:FGBI)

Select Model
Rating:45.4Neutral
Price Target:$8.50â–¼(-15.59% Downside)
Action:reiterated
Date:10/28/26

The score is driven primarily by severely deteriorated profitability and the regulatory consent order. Positive cash generation, moderate leverage, favorable technical positioning, and low valuation provide some offset, but the bank must restore sustainable profitability and strengthen capital to improve its outlook.

Positive Factors
Improved Cash GenerationThe return to positive operating and free cash flow provides internally generated funding for banking operations and balance-sheet needs. If sustained alongside eventual profitability, this improvement could strengthen financial flexibility and reduce reliance on external capital.
Negative Factors
Persistent Net LossesPersistent losses weaken retained capital and prevent the balance sheet from generating adequate shareholder returns. Even though losses narrowed versus 2025, continued negative profitability could constrain lending capacity, capital allocation, and the company’s ability to sustain distributions.

First Guaranty Bancshares (FGBI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

-25%0%25%50%75%100%FGBI+65.97%SPY+11.79%Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26
Market Cap
$158.61M
Dividend Yield
0.42%
Average Volume (3M)
21.95K
Price to Earnings (P/E)
8.6
Beta (1Y)
0.35
Revenue Growth
-2.49%
EPS Growth
―
Country
US
Employees
333
Sector
Financial
Sector Strength
68
Industry
Banks - Regional

First Guaranty Bancshares Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. functions as the parent company for First Guaranty Bank, a financial institution delivering commercial banking services primarily across Louisiana and Texas. The bank offers a comprehensive suite of deposit products, i...

First Guaranty Bancshares Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financial performance is weak overall: sharp losses, negative margins, declining revenue, and negative returns on equity outweigh the adequate balance sheet and positive recent cash generation.

Income Statement

18Very Negative

Balance Sheet

42Neutral

Cash Flow

61Positive
Financial statement breakdown
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue188.93M195.96M244.78M191.78M145.84M120.92M
Gross Profit37.73M-12.11M91.47M89.76M105.64M96.56M
EBITDA-42.33M-64.27M20.44M15.92M40.50M39.23M
Net Income-36.38M-56.02M12.45M9.22M28.88M27.30M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets3.90B4.08B3.97B3.55B3.15B2.88B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments1.99B845.70M845.13M369.60M214.25M472.37M
Total Debt186.28M186.13M201.92M275.40M183.37M49.63M
Total Liabilities3.67B3.85B3.72B3.30B2.92B2.65B
Stockholders Equity227.35M226.22M255.05M249.63M234.99M223.89M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow53.16M-9.98M30.68M6.76M34.22M24.32M
Operating Cash Flow54.53M-8.28M33.73M21.71M36.87M26.52M
Investing Cash Flow31.82M129.90M-142.07M-206.09M-467.91M-452.64M
Financing Cash Flow-19.65M159.88M386.09M387.61M252.33M388.45M

First Guaranty Bancshares Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentPositive
Last Price10.07

Price Trends

50DMA8.41Positive
100DMA9.04Positive
200DMA9.01Positive

Market Momentum

MACD0.27Negative
RSI66.13Neutral
STOCH91.73Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FGBI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 10.07 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.58, above the 50-day MA of 8.41, and above the 200-day MA of 9.01, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.27 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 66.13 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 91.73 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for FGBI.

First Guaranty Bancshares Risk Analysis

First Guaranty Bancshares disclosed 50 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. First Guaranty Bancshares reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Higher RiskSector Avg.Lower RiskFinance & CorporateTech & InnovationLegal & RegulatoryProductionAbility to SellMacro & Political
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added

0 New Risks

First Guaranty Bancshares Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)

Financial Indicators

FGBI against its peers
NameOverall RatingMarket CapP/E RatioROEDividend YieldRevenue GrowthEPS Growth
RBKBRBKB71Outperform$202.17M14.696.49%―9.53%103.97%
FNWDFNWD69Neutral$187.57M24.204.50%1.11%-0.28%-6.38%
Sector *68Neutral$18.00B11.429.92%3.81%9.73%1.22%
EBMTEBMT55Neutral$168.95M10.777.98%2.75%1.58%13.99%
FGBIFGBI45Neutral$158.61M8.569.18%0.42%-2.49%―

* Financial Sector Average

Performance Comparison

-25%0%25%50%75%FGBIEBMTRBKBFNWDECBKDec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26
FGBI and its peers over the selected period
Show on chartTickerCompany NamePriceChange% Change
FGBIFirst Guaranty Bancshares9.593.4255.30%
EBMTEagle Bancorp Montana21.215.2833.17%
RBKBRhinebeck Bancorp12.935.7880.94%
FNWDFinward Bancorp43.319.3327.44%
ECBKECB Bancorp, Inc.21.365.1031.37%

First Guaranty Bancshares Corporate Events

Dividends

First Guaranty Bancshares Declares Series A Preferred Dividend

Positive
Oct 27, 2026

On October 15, 2026, First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. announced that holders of record on November 15, 2026 of its depositary shares, each representing a 1/40th interest in its 6.75% Series A Fixed-Rate Non-Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock, would...

Dividends

First Guaranty Bancshares Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend

Positive
Sep 10, 2026

On August 20, 2026, the Board of Directors of First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.01 per share on its outstanding common stock, payable to shareholders of record as of September 25, 2026 and scheduled for payment...

Legal ProceedingsRegulatory Filings and Compliance

First Guaranty Bancshares Enters Capital-Focused Consent Order

Negative
Aug 7, 2026

On August 7, 2026, First Guaranty Bank entered into a consent order with the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and the Louisiana Office of Financial Institutions, stemming from a joint regulatory examination completed on September 2, 2025. The or...

Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions

First Guaranty Bancshares Exits Texas Operations After Sale

Neutral
Aug 6, 2026

First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. announced that its subsidiary, First Guaranty Bank, completed the sale of its Texas operations to Armstrong Bank on July 31, 2026. The transaction included five branches along with approximately $234 million in deposit...

Dividends

First Guaranty Bancshares Declares Quarterly Preferred Dividend

Positive
Aug 5, 2026

On July 16, 2026, First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. announced that holders of its depositary shares, each representing a 1/40th interest in its 6.75% Series A Fixed-Rate Non-Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock, would receive a quarterly cash distribut...

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Oct 28, 2026