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4D Molecular Therapeutics (FDMT) AI Stock Analysis

FDMT

4D Molecular Therapeutics

(NASDAQ:FDMT)

Select Model
Rating:50Neutral
Price Target:$12.00▲(4.90% Upside)
Action:reiterated
Date:10/24/26

The score is primarily held back by weak financial performance—large ongoing losses and heavy cash burn—despite a low-leverage balance sheet and improving revenue. Technical indicators also point to continued negative momentum. Valuation is difficult to assess due to negative earnings, while the recent Phase 3 start and supportive clinical data provide a meaningful (but risk-dependent) positive offset.

Positive Factors
Revenue GrowthThe sharp increase in revenue to $92.0M TTM indicates meaningful commercial progress from a low base and suggests growing monetization of the company’s programs. If sustained, this expanding revenue foundation can support greater operating scale and improve the long-term path toward funding development internally.
Negative Factors
Persistent UnprofitabilityThe scale of ongoing losses shows that FDMT remains far from breakeven despite higher revenue. Persistent negative operating profitability can constrain reinvestment, increase dependence on external capital, and leave future earnings highly sensitive to clinical outcomes and successful commercialization.

4D Molecular Therapeutics (FDMT) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

-40%-20%0%20%40%60%FDMT+8.18%SPY+12.58%Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26Nov '26
Market Cap
$628.13M
Dividend Yield
―
Average Volume (3M)
1.01M
Price to Earnings (P/E)
-4.2
Beta (1Y)
0.73
Revenue Growth
278712.12%
EPS Growth
26.59%
Country
US
Employees
196
Sector
Healthcare
Sector Strength
51
Industry
Biotechnology

4D Molecular Therapeutics Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

4D Molecular Therapeutics, Inc. is a clinical-stage gene therapy company that engineers therapeutic agents by leveraging its proprietary adeno-associated virus (AAV) vector technology. The company's developmental efforts are concentrated across a tri...

4D Molecular Therapeutics Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Revenue has stepped up sharply (TTM $92.0M), but the company remains far from profitable with a large TTM net loss (-$179.2M), deeply negative net margin (~-195%), and materially negative EBIT/EBITDA. Cash flow is a key weakness (TTM operating cash flow -$156.1M; free cash flow -$156.7M), increasing funding needs. The balance sheet is a relative strength with low debt ($19.6M; debt-to-equity ~0.05), though equity has declined, reflecting ongoing burn.

Income Statement

32Negative

Balance Sheet

70Positive

Cash Flow

40Negative
Financial statement breakdown
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue92.01M85.21M37.00K20.72M3.13M18.04M
Gross Profit38.65M77.58M-141.26M-76.37M-77.12M-43.32M
EBITDA-183.96M-132.48M-154.16M-95.09M-103.61M-68.30M
Net Income-179.18M-140.11M-160.87M-100.84M-107.49M-71.32M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets492.62M566.71M560.38M339.89M261.85M353.49M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments361.33M402.65M424.88M288.23M213.55M247.78M
Total Debt39.22M21.41M24.61M14.67M16.12M16.45M
Total Liabilities84.96M61.05M49.78M32.06M30.51M34.38M
Stockholders Equity407.66M505.66M510.61M307.83M231.34M319.11M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-156.67M-109.08M-138.37M-78.56M-98.22M-78.24M
Operating Cash Flow-156.07M-109.08M-134.59M-75.79M-86.69M-69.13M
Investing Cash Flow-16.64M-92.97M-302.44M115.72M-17.05M-172.68M
Financing Cash Flow165.92M112.96M337.25M156.83M3.08M118.09M

4D Molecular Therapeutics Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentNegative
Last Price11.44

Price Trends

50DMA13.63Negative
100DMA12.57Negative
200DMA10.89Positive

Market Momentum

MACD-0.47Negative
RSI41.05Neutral
STOCH49.25Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FDMT, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 11.44 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 12.32, below the 50-day MA of 13.63, and above the 200-day MA of 10.89, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.47 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 41.05 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 49.25 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for FDMT.

4D Molecular Therapeutics Risk Analysis

4D Molecular Therapeutics disclosed 87 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. 4D Molecular Therapeutics reported the most risks in the "Tech & Innovation" category.

Higher RiskSector Avg.Lower RiskFinance & CorporateTech & InnovationLegal & RegulatoryProductionAbility to SellMacro & Political
Tech & Innovation - Risks related to the company’s reliance on technology and ability to make innovative products

Latest Risks Added

3 New Risks
1.Our business may be affected by the evolving regulatory framework for AI Technologies.Q4, 2025
2.Our reliance on Chinese biotechnology companies may subject us to additional risks.Q4, 2025
3.coverage and adequate reimbursement for our product candidates, if any and if approved, could limit our ability to market those products and decrease our ability to generate revenue.Q4, 2025

4D Molecular Therapeutics Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)

Financial Indicators

FDMT against its peers
NameOverall RatingMarket CapP/E RatioROEDividend YieldRevenue GrowthEPS Growth
ASMBASMB62Neutral$409.86M35.47-0.02%―125.12%98.69%
AURAAURA54Neutral$636.75M-3.39-73.18%――9.05%
KRROKRRO54Neutral$210.80M-1.58-114.26%―-62.08%-2.62%
DSGNDSGN52Neutral$668.37M-8.60-34.03%――-5.51%
Sector *51Neutral$7.86B-0.30-43.30%2.27%22.53%-2.21%
FDMTFDMT50Neutral$657.41M-4.18-41.33%―278712.12%26.59%
IMRXIMRX47Neutral$242.54M-3.39-33.91%――42.34%

* Healthcare Sector Average

Performance Comparison

-50%0%50%100%150%FDMTASMBKRRODSGNIMRXAURADec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26Nov '26
FDMT and its peers over the selected period
Show on chartTickerCompany NamePriceChange% Change
FDMT4D Molecular Therapeutics, Inc.11.370.625.77%
ASMBAssembly Biosciences Inc19.51-11.92-37.93%
KRROKorro Bio, Inc.15.85-18.01-53.19%
DSGNDesign Therapeutics, Inc.10.153.9162.66%
IMRXImmuneering Corp. Class A3.49-2.89-45.30%
AURAAura Biosciences Inc6.030.356.16%

4D Molecular Therapeutics Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyProduct-Related Announcements

4D Molecular Therapeutics Begins Phase 3 4D-150 DME Trial

Positive
Sep 28, 2026

On September 28, 2026, 4D Molecular Therapeutics reported that it has enrolled the first patients across multiple global sites in 4SIGHT, a Phase 3 randomized, double-masked trial of intravitreal gene therapy 4D-150 versus aflibercept in treatment-na...

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Oct 24, 2026