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Freeport-McMoRan
(NYSE:FCX)
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Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
$63.00
â–¼(-10.27% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/11/26
The score is driven primarily by solid underlying financial performance (profitability, cash generation, and manageable leverage) but moderated by cyclical variability. Near-term operational/cost headwinds from the earnings call (Grasberg ramp timing and higher unit costs) and a demanding valuation (high P/E with low yield) further cap the score, while technicals indicate a supported but not strongly bullish momentum backdrop.
Positive Factors
Balance-sheet strength
Improving leverage and a materially larger equity base provide financing flexibility and resilience across commodity cycles. A stronger balance sheet supports multi-year capex for growth projects, preserves investment-grade access to liquidity, and lessens forced asset sales during downturns, underpinning durable operational optionality.
Negative Factors
Grasberg ramp bottlenecks & production cuts
Delayed ramp and lower short‑term throughput reduce near‑to‑medium term volumes and free cash flow, shifting the timing of returns on heavy Indonesian investments. Persistent timing setbacks increase per‑unit fixed costs, raise execution risk for downstream projects, and can defer value realization for several fiscal years.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Balance-sheet strength
Improving leverage and a materially larger equity base provide financing flexibility and resilience across commodity cycles. A stronger balance sheet supports multi-year capex for growth projects, preserves investment-grade access to liquidity, and lessens forced asset sales during downturns, underpinning durable operational optionality.
Read all positive factors
Freeport-McMoRan Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Breaks down revenue by different business units, highlighting which segments are driving growth and profitability, and revealing the company's strategic focus and market positioning.
Breaks down revenue by different business units, highlighting which segments are driving growth and profitability, and revealing the company's strategic focus and market positioning.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyFreeport-McMoRan (FCX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$83.92B
Dividend Yield1.03%
Average Volume (3M)14.41M
Price to Earnings (P/E)31.1
Beta (1Y)1.78
Revenue Growth5.35%
EPS Growth55.07%
CountryUS
Employees29,000
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryCopper
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.88
Shares Outstanding1,437,559,800
10 Day Avg. Volume15,910,594
30 Day Avg. Volume14,407,765
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.98
Price to Book (P/B)3.88
Price to Sales (P/S)2.85
P/FCF Ratio65.67
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$73.31Price Target Upside4.41% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering14
EPS Forecast (FY)2.75
Revenue Forecast (FY)$28.72B
Freeport-McMoRan Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Freeport-McMoRan Inc. is a prominent mining enterprise conducting extensive operations across North America, South America, and Indonesia. The company primarily focuses on the exploration and extraction of key mineral resources such as copper, gol...
How the Company Makes Money
Freeport-McMoRan makes money primarily by producing and selling mined metals, with copper as its dominant revenue driver. The company generates revenue from (1) sales of copper produced from its mines and processing facilities, including copper co...
Freeport-McMoRan Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 23, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 23, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a mix of material near-term operational challenges at Grasberg and industry-wide input-cost pressures, but emphasized strong portfolio diversity, significant growth options (notably leach scaling, El Abra and Bagdad), a solid balance sheet, an insurance recovery, and meaningful recent operating gains in the U.S. Management characterized Grasberg issues as timing and engineering challenges (not resource loss), with concrete mitigation plans and only modest incremental capex. Given the magnitude of long-term value drivers and current financial strength versus the primarily timing-related setbacks, the tone is constructive with manageable near-term headwinds.Positive Updates
Year-over-Year Financial and Operational Improvement
Sales of copper and gold, and unit costs, were better than forecast; revenues, EBITDA and operating cash flow grew compared with Q1 2025 despite reduced Indonesia capacity.
Negative Updates
Grasberg Material-Handling Bottlenecks and Ramp-Down
Wet draw points in PB2/3 increased from 30% (Sept 2025) to 45% currently — a 50% relative increase — reducing blending capability and causing material-handling bottlenecks downstream of the extraction level; majority of bottlenecks expected to be addressed by mid-2027.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Year-over-Year Financial and Operational Improvement
Sales of copper and gold, and unit costs, were better than forecast; revenues, EBITDA and operating cash flow grew compared with Q1 2025 despite reduced Indonesia capacity.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Freeport’s guidance updated for 2026 reflects softer near‑term output at Grasberg and higher input costs but strong long‑term cash‑flow leverage to copper: copper has averaged >$5.80/lb YTD (peaked >$6), modeled 2027–28 EBITDA of ~$14B at $5/lb to ~$21B at $7/lb (operating cash flow ~$10B–$16B) with each $0.10/lb ≈ $400M EBITDA and each $100/oz gold ≈ $110M (gold assumed $4,500/oz, moly $25/lb). Grasberg PB2/3 is now forecast at ~60,000 tpd in H2‑2026 (vs prior 100,000 tpd) ramping toward ~90,000 tpd by mid‑2027; of 635 active draw points wet points rose from 30% (Sep‑2025) to 45% and 10 of 23 panels now fail the 1:1 dry:wet blend, driving a timing‑only 5‑year production revision of ~–9% copper and –7% gold (largest in 2026–27). Unit costs are now expected to average $1.95/lb in 2026 (prior $1.75), a March diesel spike equates to ≈$500M annualized cost, idle‑cost exclusions rose to $1.3B (from $900M), incremental chute mods add ~$60–70M, and company capex is ~$4.3B in 2026 and ~$4.5B in 2027 with $1.6–1.7B discretionary (≈50% Kucing Liar/LNG); management also expects to collect a $700M insurance recovery in Q2, scale leach to 300–400M lb/year in 2026–27 with a path to 800M lb/year by 2030, pursue ~60% U.S. production growth over several years, and returned ~$300M to shareholders in Q1 (1.7M shares repurchased).Freeport-McMoRan Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
Cash Flow
67
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 26.42B | 25.74B | 25.45B | 22.71B | 23.33B | 22.36B |
| Gross Profit | 7.34B | 6.95B | 7.50B | 6.88B | 8.09B | 8.29B |
| EBITDA | 9.59B | 8.76B | 9.47B | 8.59B | 9.29B | 10.26B |
| Net Income | 2.73B | 2.20B | 1.88B | 1.84B | 3.46B | 4.30B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 58.84B | 58.17B | 54.85B | 52.51B | 51.09B | 48.02B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 4.02B | 4.05B | 3.92B | 5.97B | 8.15B | 8.07B |
| Total Debt | 10.40B | 11.50B | 9.74B | 10.20B | 10.95B | 9.77B |
| Total Liabilities | 27.33B | 27.40B | 26.07B | 25.20B | 26.22B | 25.00B |
| Stockholders Equity | 19.50B | 18.90B | 17.58B | 16.69B | 15.55B | 13.98B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 6.25B | 1.12B | 2.35B | 455.00M | 1.67B | 5.60B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 6.05B | 5.61B | 7.16B | 5.28B | 5.14B | 7.71B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -4.28B | -4.47B | -5.03B | -4.96B | -3.25B | -1.78B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -2.56B | -1.88B | -3.28B | -2.65B | -1.81B | -1.52B |
Freeport-McMoRan Technical Analysis
Negative
70.21
Price Trends
63.57
Negative
62.54
Negative
55.76
Positive
Market Momentum
-1.41
Positive
41.02
Neutral
47.74
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FCX, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 70.21 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 61.63, above the 50-day MA of 63.57, and above the 200-day MA of 55.76, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.41 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.02 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 47.74 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for FCX.
Freeport-McMoRan Risk Analysis
Freeport-McMoRan disclosed 31 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Freeport-McMoRan reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Freeport-McMoRan Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $95.76B | 11.59 | 25.22% | 0.95% | 25.14% | 73.19% | |
72 Outperform | $143.90B | 28.70 | 45.96% | 2.07% | 21.70% | 36.79% | |
69 Neutral | $155.33B | 14.71 | 16.59% | 4.60% | 7.59% | -13.66% | |
66 Neutral | $59.30B | 20.99 | 7.68% | 10.04% | 4.64% | -51.66% | |
65 Neutral | $83.92B | 31.06 | 14.52% | 1.25% | 5.35% | 55.07% | |
63 Neutral | $49.32B | 17.28 | 5.35% | 1.03% | -1.31% | 149.74% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
FCX
Freeport-McMoRan
58.38
13.67
30.58%
MT
ArcelorMittal
66.45
33.14
99.48%
NEM
Newmont Mining
89.70
30.47
51.44%
RIO
Rio Tinto
90.15
31.20
52.93%
SCCO
Southern Copper
172.48
80.30
87.11%
VALE
Vale SA
14.19
4.80
51.07%
Freeport-McMoRan Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Freeport-McMoRan Shareholders Elect Board, Back Executive Pay
Positive
Jun 10, 2026
At Freeport-McMoRan Inc.’s 2026 annual meeting of stockholders, held on June 10, 2026, shareholders elected eleven directors to serve until the next annual meeting, following a previously announced reduction of the board from twelve to eleve...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Freeport-McMoRan Secures New $3 Billion Credit Facility
Positive
May 20, 2026
On May 14, 2026, Freeport-McMoRan and its Indonesian subsidiary PT Freeport Indonesia entered into a new five-year, $3.0 billion senior unsecured revolving credit facility with a syndicate of banks led by JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America, replac...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackFinancial Disclosures
Freeport-McMoRan Posts Strong First-Quarter 2026 Results
Positive
Apr 23, 2026
On April 23, 2026, Freeport-McMoRan reported strong first-quarter 2026 results, with net income attributable to common stock of $881 million, or $0.61 per share, and adjusted net income of $830 million, or $0.57, as revenues, operating income and ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.