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Freeport-McMoRan
(NYSE:FCX)
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Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
$71.00
â–¼(-11.15% Downside)
Action:Downgraded
Date:10/02/26
FCX scores as moderately attractive, led by solid underlying financial strength and a positive operational/growth outlook from the earnings call (Grasberg ramp, U.S. gains, leach scaling). Offsetting factors are soft near-term technical momentum and a relatively expensive valuation (high P/E with a modest yield), with added execution/capex inflation and regulatory timing risks.
Positive Factors
Improving Balance Sheet
Moderate and improving leverage gives Freeport-McMoRan greater resilience through commodity cycles and preserves flexibility to fund mine expansions, sustain operations, and return capital. Investment-grade status and limited near-term maturities further reduce financing pressure while growth projects advance.
Negative Factors
Commodity-Cycle Earnings Volatility
Freeport-McMoRan remains exposed to realized copper, gold, and molybdenum prices, so revenue and margins can weaken even when operations perform well. Recent flat-to-declining revenue and lower margins demonstrate that commodity-cycle sensitivity can make cash generation and earnings less predictable over the next several quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Improving Balance Sheet
Moderate and improving leverage gives Freeport-McMoRan greater resilience through commodity cycles and preserves flexibility to fund mine expansions, sustain operations, and return capital. Investment-grade status and limited near-term maturities further reduce financing pressure while growth projects advance.
Read all positive factors
Freeport-McMoRan Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Breaks down revenue by different business units, highlighting which segments are driving growth and profitability, and revealing the company's strategic focus and market positioning.
Breaks down revenue by different business units, highlighting which segments are driving growth and profitability, and revealing the company's strategic focus and market positioning.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyFreeport-McMoRan (FCX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$98.94B
Dividend Yield0.87%
Average Volume (3M)11.13M
Price to Earnings (P/E)33.9
Beta (1Y)1.67
Revenue Growth-1.85%
EPS Growth53.32%
CountryUS
Employees29,000
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryCopper
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.03
Shares Outstanding1,436,017,600
10 Day Avg. Volume10,790,040
30 Day Avg. Volume11,131,085
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.98
Price to Book (P/B)3.88
Price to Sales (P/S)2.85
P/FCF Ratio65.67
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.10
Enterprise Value/Revenue4.21
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit15.68
Enterprise Value/Ebitda12.10
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$82.17Price Target Upside2.82% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering15
EPS Forecast (FY)3.18
Revenue Forecast (FY)$29.94B
Freeport-McMoRan Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Freeport-McMoRan Inc. is a prominent mining enterprise conducting extensive operations across North America, South America, and Indonesia. The company primarily focuses on the exploration and extraction of key mineral resources such as copper, gol...
How the Company Makes Money
Freeport-McMoRan makes money primarily by producing and selling mined metals—chiefly copper—and, secondarily, gold and molybdenum. Revenue is largely generated from (1) sales of copper concentrate and refined copper (including cathode) produced fr...
Freeport-McMoRan Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 23, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 27, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized clear operational progress (Grasberg ramp, Morenci mine-rate gains), strong financial leverage to rising copper prices, a robust organic growth pipeline (Baghdad, El Abra, leach scaling) and disciplined capital allocation including shareholder returns. Challenges include capital cost inflation (notably Baghdad and higher 2027 capex), energy and input volatility, timing/sequencing impacts on quarterly sales, and regulatory timing risk for the Grasberg license extension. On balance, the positives — operational execution, market backdrop, and financial strength — outweigh the manageable risks and cost pressures.Positive Updates
Grasberg Ramp-Up Strong Execution
Grasberg Block Cave production rates doubled in Q2 from an April average of ~34,000 tpd to ~69,000 tpd in June; management targets district rates of approximately ~65% of full capacity by mid-2027 and approaching full capacity by end-2027.
Negative Updates
Capital Cost Escalation
Baghdad preliminary capital estimate is ~30% above the 2023 estimate (management cites commodity and labor escalation and scope/engineering updates); 2027 capex forecast increased to ~$4.8 billion (~$300M above April estimate).
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Grasberg Ramp-Up Strong Execution
Grasberg Block Cave production rates doubled in Q2 from an April average of ~34,000 tpd to ~69,000 tpd in June; management targets district rates of approximately ~65% of full capacity by mid-2027 and approaching full capacity by end-2027.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reiterated 2026 and multi‑year guidance with a 2026 average unit net cash cost of ≈$1.90/lb (vs April $1.95), second‑half copper sales >20% higher than first half and gold sales >65% higher, and 2027 copper sales expected >20% above 2026 (gold >50%) with further growth into 2028; Grasberg Block Cave production doubled from ~34k tpd in April to ~69k tpd in June and the district is targeted to run at ~65% of full capacity by mid‑2027 and approach full capacity by end‑2027; the Americas leach initiative targets a near‑term run rate of ~300M lb by year‑end on a pathway to ~800M lb/yr; preliminary Baghdad expansion CapEx is ≈$4.5B (≈30% above 2023 estimate), still economic at ~$4/lb Cu with a 3–4 year build; companywide 2027 CapEx ≈$4.8B (≈$300M above April) with discretionary capital ≈$1.6B in 2026 and $1.9B in 2027 (~50% for Kucing Liar/LNG); modeled annual EBITDA ranges ≈$13B at $5/lb Cu to ≈$20B at $7/lb (operating cash flow ≈$9.5B–$15.5B), with sensitivities of ~$390M EBITDA per $0.10/lb Cu, ~$105M per $100/oz Au and ~$85M per $1/lb Mo (models assume Au $4k/oz, Mo $30/lb); US mining rates (Morenci) rose ~30% vs 5‑yr average, the US business targets a ~60% potential production increase over coming years, and the balance sheet remains investment grade with no significant 2026 maturities, H1 shareholder returns of ~$600M (≈$200M buybacks) and $6.3B returned since 2021.Freeport-McMoRan Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
81
Very Positive
Cash Flow
69
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 25.87B | 25.74B | 25.45B | 22.71B | 23.33B | 22.36B |
| Gross Profit | 6.95B | 6.95B | 7.50B | 6.88B | 8.09B | 8.29B |
| EBITDA | 9.00B | 8.76B | 9.47B | 8.59B | 9.29B | 10.26B |
| Net Income | 2.94B | 2.20B | 1.88B | 1.84B | 3.46B | 4.30B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 59.73B | 58.17B | 54.85B | 52.51B | 51.09B | 48.02B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 4.08B | 4.05B | 3.92B | 5.97B | 8.15B | 8.07B |
| Total Debt | 10.36B | 11.50B | 9.74B | 10.20B | 10.95B | 9.77B |
| Total Liabilities | 27.50B | 27.40B | 26.07B | 25.20B | 26.22B | 25.00B |
| Stockholders Equity | 20.11B | 18.90B | 17.58B | 16.69B | 15.55B | 13.98B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 5.92B | 1.12B | 2.35B | 455.00M | 1.67B | 5.60B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 5.92B | 5.61B | 7.16B | 5.28B | 5.14B | 7.71B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -4.22B | -4.47B | -5.03B | -4.96B | -3.25B | -1.78B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -2.13B | -1.88B | -3.28B | -2.65B | -1.81B | -1.52B |
Freeport-McMoRan Technical Analysis
Neutral
79.91
Price Trends
71.87
Negative
67.94
Positive
64.65
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.56
Positive
42.28
Neutral
38.67
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FCX, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 79.91 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 71.02, above the 50-day MA of 71.87, and above the 200-day MA of 64.65, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.56 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 42.28 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 38.67 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for FCX.
Freeport-McMoRan Risk Analysis
Freeport-McMoRan disclosed 31 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Freeport-McMoRan reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Freeport-McMoRan Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
81 Outperform | $7.59B | 6.87 | 27.66% | 3.73% | 67.75% | 122.36% | |
79 Outperform | $167.24B | 25.93 | 51.96% | 1.98% | 38.69% | 66.94% | |
76 Outperform | $123.47B | 14.74 | 25.02% | 0.88% | 23.61% | 42.29% | |
69 Neutral | $98.94B | 33.93 | 15.26% | 0.87% | -1.85% | 53.32% | |
63 Neutral | $148.71B | 11.69 | 18.86% | 5.35% | 14.26% | 17.02% | |
62 Neutral | $51.91B | 25.49 | 5.76% | 8.38% | 12.55% | -60.45% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
FCX
Freeport-McMoRan
64.59
23.74
58.12%
BVN
Compania de Minas Buenaventura SAA
28.49
6.33
28.59%
NEM
Newmont Mining
114.11
26.03
29.55%
RIO
Rio Tinto
84.14
16.89
25.11%
SCCO
Southern Copper
183.59
62.80
51.99%
VALE
Vale SA
12.20
1.52
14.24%
Freeport-McMoRan Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Freeport-McMoRan Highlights Q3 Output and Growth Initiatives
Positive
Oct 2, 2026
In the third quarter of 2026, Freeport-McMoRan’s consolidated copper and gold production broadly met expectations, with about 830 million pounds of copper and 230 thousand ounces of gold produced, though U.S. mines faced weather-related disr...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Freeport-McMoRan Subsidiary Extends Revolving Credit Facility
Positive
Sep 8, 2026
On September 1, 2026, PT Freeport Indonesia, a 48.76%-owned subsidiary of Freeport-McMoRan Inc., amended and restated its $1.75 billion senior unsecured revolving credit facility, extending the maturity date from November 2028 to September 2031. A...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackFinancial Disclosures
Freeport-McMoRan Delivers Strong Q2 2026 Copper Results
Positive
Jul 23, 2026
Freeport-McMoRan reported that in the second quarter of 2026 it generated net income attributable to common stock of $984 million, or $0.68 per share, with adjusted net income of $1.1 billion, or $0.74 per share, on revenues of $7.03 billion. The ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.