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Freeport-McMoRan
(NYSE:FCX)
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Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:
$84.00
â–²(5.12% Upside)
Action:Upgraded
Date:07/23/26
FCX scores well on underlying financial strength (profitability and improving leverage) and a constructive earnings outlook tied to operational ramp-ups and multi-year volume growth. The overall score is held back by a high P/E and mixed near-term technical momentum (negative MACD despite an uptrend versus key moving averages).
Positive Factors
Grasberg ramp and multi-year volume growth
The Grasberg Block Cave ramp provides a visible source of copper and gold volume growth. Rising utilization toward 2027 should improve operating leverage and reinforce FCX’s position as a large, diversified copper producer.
Negative Factors
Commodity-cycle exposure and uneven revenue growth
Copper remains FCX’s dominant revenue driver, leaving earnings highly sensitive to metal prices, grades and production costs. Recent revenue softness and lower margins show that strong profitability can weaken materially during an unfavorable commodity cycle.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Grasberg ramp and multi-year volume growth
The Grasberg Block Cave ramp provides a visible source of copper and gold volume growth. Rising utilization toward 2027 should improve operating leverage and reinforce FCX’s position as a large, diversified copper producer.
Read all positive factors
Freeport-McMoRan Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Breaks down revenue by different business units, highlighting which segments are driving growth and profitability, and revealing the company's strategic focus and market positioning.
Breaks down revenue by different business units, highlighting which segments are driving growth and profitability, and revealing the company's strategic focus and market positioning.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyFreeport-McMoRan (FCX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$104.20B
Dividend Yield0.82%
Average Volume (3M)14.29M
Price to Earnings (P/E)35.8
Beta (1Y)1.69
Revenue Growth-1.85%
EPS Growth53.32%
CountryUS
Employees29,000
SectorGeneral
Sector StrengthN/A
IndustryCopper
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.03
Shares Outstanding1,436,017,600
10 Day Avg. Volume17,354,072
30 Day Avg. Volume14,286,580
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.98
Price to Book (P/B)3.88
Price to Sales (P/S)2.85
P/FCF Ratio65.67
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$75.31Price Target Upside-5.76% Downside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering16
EPS Forecast (FY)2.95
Revenue Forecast (FY)$29.36B
Freeport-McMoRan Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Freeport-McMoRan Inc. is a prominent mining enterprise conducting extensive operations across North America, South America, and Indonesia. The company primarily focuses on the exploration and extraction of key mineral resources such as copper, gol...
How the Company Makes Money
Freeport-McMoRan makes money primarily by producing and selling mined metals, with copper as its dominant revenue driver. The company generates revenue from (1) sales of copper produced from its mines and processing facilities, including copper co...
Freeport-McMoRan Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 23, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 15, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized clear operational progress (Grasberg ramp, Morenci mine-rate gains), strong financial leverage to rising copper prices, a robust organic growth pipeline (Baghdad, El Abra, leach scaling) and disciplined capital allocation including shareholder returns. Challenges include capital cost inflation (notably Baghdad and higher 2027 capex), energy and input volatility, timing/sequencing impacts on quarterly sales, and regulatory timing risk for the Grasberg license extension. On balance, the positives — operational execution, market backdrop, and financial strength — outweigh the manageable risks and cost pressures.Positive Updates
Grasberg Ramp-Up Strong Execution
Grasberg Block Cave production rates doubled in Q2 from an April average of ~34,000 tpd to ~69,000 tpd in June; management targets district rates of approximately ~65% of full capacity by mid-2027 and approaching full capacity by end-2027.
Negative Updates
Capital Cost Escalation
Baghdad preliminary capital estimate is ~30% above the 2023 estimate (management cites commodity and labor escalation and scope/engineering updates); 2027 capex forecast increased to ~$4.8 billion (~$300M above April estimate).
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Grasberg Ramp-Up Strong Execution
Grasberg Block Cave production rates doubled in Q2 from an April average of ~34,000 tpd to ~69,000 tpd in June; management targets district rates of approximately ~65% of full capacity by mid-2027 and approaching full capacity by end-2027.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reiterated 2026 and multi‑year guidance with a 2026 average unit net cash cost of ≈$1.90/lb (vs April $1.95), second‑half copper sales >20% higher than first half and gold sales >65% higher, and 2027 copper sales expected >20% above 2026 (gold >50%) with further growth into 2028; Grasberg Block Cave production doubled from ~34k tpd in April to ~69k tpd in June and the district is targeted to run at ~65% of full capacity by mid‑2027 and approach full capacity by end‑2027; the Americas leach initiative targets a near‑term run rate of ~300M lb by year‑end on a pathway to ~800M lb/yr; preliminary Baghdad expansion CapEx is ≈$4.5B (≈30% above 2023 estimate), still economic at ~$4/lb Cu with a 3–4 year build; companywide 2027 CapEx ≈$4.8B (≈$300M above April) with discretionary capital ≈$1.6B in 2026 and $1.9B in 2027 (~50% for Kucing Liar/LNG); modeled annual EBITDA ranges ≈$13B at $5/lb Cu to ≈$20B at $7/lb (operating cash flow ≈$9.5B–$15.5B), with sensitivities of ~$390M EBITDA per $0.10/lb Cu, ~$105M per $100/oz Au and ~$85M per $1/lb Mo (models assume Au $4k/oz, Mo $30/lb); US mining rates (Morenci) rose ~30% vs 5‑yr average, the US business targets a ~60% potential production increase over coming years, and the balance sheet remains investment grade with no significant 2026 maturities, H1 shareholder returns of ~$600M (≈$200M buybacks) and $6.3B returned since 2021.Freeport-McMoRan Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
81
Very Positive
Cash Flow
69
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 25.87B | 25.74B | 25.45B | 22.71B | 23.33B | 22.36B |
| Gross Profit | 6.95B | 6.95B | 7.50B | 6.88B | 8.09B | 8.29B |
| EBITDA | 9.00B | 8.76B | 9.47B | 8.59B | 9.29B | 10.26B |
| Net Income | 2.94B | 2.20B | 1.88B | 1.84B | 3.46B | 4.30B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 59.73B | 58.17B | 54.85B | 52.51B | 51.09B | 48.02B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 4.08B | 4.05B | 3.92B | 5.97B | 8.15B | 8.07B |
| Total Debt | 10.36B | 11.50B | 9.74B | 10.20B | 10.95B | 9.77B |
| Total Liabilities | 27.50B | 27.40B | 26.07B | 25.20B | 26.22B | 25.00B |
| Stockholders Equity | 20.11B | 18.90B | 17.58B | 16.69B | 15.55B | 13.98B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 5.92B | 1.12B | 2.35B | 455.00M | 1.67B | 5.60B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 5.92B | 5.61B | 7.16B | 5.28B | 5.14B | 7.71B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -4.22B | -4.47B | -5.03B | -4.96B | -3.25B | -1.78B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -2.13B | -1.88B | -3.28B | -2.65B | -1.81B | -1.52B |
Freeport-McMoRan Technical Analysis
Positive
79.91
Price Trends
66.40
Positive
65.31
Positive
60.73
Positive
Market Momentum
2.24
Positive
53.27
Neutral
15.67
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FCX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 79.91 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 72.63, above the 50-day MA of 66.40, and above the 200-day MA of 60.73, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.24 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 53.27 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 15.67 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for FCX.
Freeport-McMoRan Risk Analysis
Freeport-McMoRan disclosed 31 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Freeport-McMoRan reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Freeport-McMoRan Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (55)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
81 Outperform | $8.97B | 7.65 | 27.66% | 3.67% | 67.75% | 122.36% | |
79 Outperform | $168.47B | 29.10 | 49.38% | 2.06% | 32.80% | 55.92% | |
78 Outperform | $137.43B | 16.11 | 25.02% | 1.09% | 23.61% | 42.29% | |
70 Outperform | $104.20B | 35.82 | 15.26% | 0.96% | -1.85% | 53.32% | |
63 Neutral | $176.43B | 13.89 | 18.86% | 4.41% | 14.26% | 17.02% | |
62 Neutral | $63.80B | 30.68 | 5.76% | 5.23% | 12.55% | -60.45% | |
55 Neutral | $6.65B | 3.83 | -15.92% | 6.20% | 10.91% | 7.18% |
* General Sector Average
FCX
Freeport-McMoRan
72.73
26.88
58.64%
BVN
Compania de Minas Buenaventura SAA
33.90
14.57
75.37%
NEM
Newmont Mining
128.09
52.63
69.74%
RIO
Rio Tinto
103.27
42.35
69.52%
SCCO
Southern Copper
198.76
101.86
105.13%
VALE
Vale SA
15.27
5.58
57.57%
Freeport-McMoRan Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackFinancial Disclosures
Freeport-McMoRan Delivers Strong Q2 2026 Copper Results
Positive
Jul 23, 2026
Freeport-McMoRan reported that in the second quarter of 2026 it generated net income attributable to common stock of $984 million, or $0.68 per share, with adjusted net income of $1.1 billion, or $0.74 per share, on revenues of $7.03 billion. The ...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Freeport-McMoRan Shareholders Elect Board, Back Executive Pay
Positive
Jun 10, 2026
At Freeport-McMoRan Inc.’s 2026 annual meeting of stockholders, held on June 10, 2026, shareholders elected eleven directors to serve until the next annual meeting, following a previously announced reduction of the board from twelve to eleve...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.