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Exchange Bank (Santa Rosa) (EXSR) AI Stock Analysis

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EXSR

Exchange Bank (Santa Rosa)

(Other OTC:EXSR)

Select Model
Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:$174.00â–²(14.47% Upside)
Action:reiterated
Date:08/06/26

EXSR scores a 61, reflecting a conservatively positioned regional bank with mixed fundamentals. The most significant positive factor is its attractive valuation — a P/E of 8.9x and 3.2% dividend yield offer value and income appeal, supported by a dramatically improved leverage profile (D/E at 0.12x). However, the score is held back by meaningful margin compression from 2021-2022 peaks, declining operating cash flow despite rising earnings, and a below-historical ROE of 8.6%. Technicals are neutral, providing no additional catalyst in either direction. The bank needs to demonstrate sustained margin recovery and improved cash flow generation to warrant a higher assessment.

Positive Factors
Improving Revenue and MarginsAccelerating revenue and improving margins indicate stronger earning capacity and operating performance. If sustained, this can support capital formation and loan growth, although the pack does not identify the specific drivers.
Negative Factors
Returns Below Prior PeaksCurrent profitability and returns remain materially below the unusually strong 2021–2022 period. This indicates lower realized earning power and limits confidence that recent improvement represents a return to historical peak efficiency.

Exchange Bank (Santa Rosa) (EXSR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%EXSR+33.58%SPY+10.42%Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26Nov '26
Market Cap
$260.58M
Dividend Yield
3.48%
Average Volume (3M)
952
Price to Earnings (P/E)
8.0
Beta (1Y)
0.20
Revenue Growth
2.63%
EPS Growth
8.01%
Country
US
Employees
400
Sector
Financial
Sector Strength
68
Industry
Banks - Regional

Exchange Bank (Santa Rosa) Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Exchange Bank (Santa Rosa, CA), headquartered in Santa Rosa, California, along with its associated entities, delivers a full spectrum of commercial and retail banking services to individual clients and businesses throughout California. For personal b...

How the Company Makes Money

Exchange Bank primarily makes money through the standard banking model of generating net interest income and fee-based (noninterest) income. 1) Net interest income (core earnings driver for most banks): - Lending interest: The bank earns interest and...

Exchange Bank (Santa Rosa) Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Revenue growth of 14.4% in 2025 and net income recovery to $30M are positives, but significant margin compression (net margin from ~30% to 19.3%) and declining operating cash flow ($24.1M vs. $38.7M peak) are meaningful concerns. The balance sheet is a bright spot with aggressive deleveraging (D/E dropping to 0.12x), though ROE at 8.6% remains below historical levels. Cash flow deterioration despite rising earnings signals potential underlying balance sheet pressures. Overall, the bank is financially stable but faces profitability headwinds.

Income Statement

55Neutral

Balance Sheet

62Positive

Cash Flow

48Neutral
Financial statement breakdown
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue157.94M155.61M148.10M114.15M125.58M118.95M
Gross Profit122.19M117.50M110.45M114.15M123.50M115.19M
EBITDA41.89M38.95M35.66M29.99M52.33M53.06M
Net Income32.12M29.97M23.85M20.19M37.48M36.41M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets3.19B3.30B3.30B3.37B3.33B3.54B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments31.22M1.40B28.64M35.65M48.37M472.97M
Total Debt40.00M40.00M140.00M232.66M28.21M7.94M
Total Liabilities2.83B2.96B3.02B3.11B3.13B3.22B
Stockholders Equity355.41M346.73M280.81M255.41M202.02M319.20M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow021.72M25.62M36.15M34.46M27.58M
Operating Cash Flow024.11M27.47M38.69M37.62M37.80M
Investing Cash Flow095.44M034.12M-360.98M-288.56M
Financing Cash Flow0-66.16M0-31.57M-101.24M387.32M

Exchange Bank (Santa Rosa) Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)

Financial Indicators

EXSR against its peers
NameOverall RatingMarket CapP/E RatioROEDividend YieldRevenue GrowthEPS Growth
FRAFFRAF78Outperform$321.33M11.2215.56%1.94%7.25%76.47%
EFSIEFSI75Outperform$251.45M13.749.27%2.73%17.02%47.37%
FXNCFXNC71Outperform$285.48M11.9012.06%2.24%0.88%103.52%
Sector *68Neutral$18.00B11.429.92%3.81%9.73%1.22%
INBKINBK66Neutral$236.94M14.984.17%0.93%7.39%―
OPBKOPBK65Neutral$229.96M7.3112.79%3.66%7.57%28.18%
EXSREXSR61Neutral$265.65M8.039.37%3.48%2.63%8.01%

* Financial Sector Average

Performance Comparison

0%20%40%60%EXSRINBKOPBKFXNCFRAFEFSIDec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26Nov '26
EXSR and its peers over the selected period
Show on chartTickerCompany NamePriceChange% Change
EXSRExchange Bank (Santa Rosa)152.0038.4533.86%
INBKFirst Internet Bancorp25.778.0745.63%
OPBKOp Bancorp14.772.1316.88%
FXNCFirst National Corp30.358.0536.10%
FRAFFranklin Financial Services69.5524.3353.81%
EFSIEagle Financial Services 45.3410.8931.61%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Aug 06, 2026