Exchange Bank (Santa Rosa) (EXSR) AI Stock Analysis

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Exchange Bank (Santa Rosa)

(Other OTC:EXSR)

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Rating:71Outperform

Price Target:$166.00▲(10.58% Upside)

Action:reiterated

Date:11/07/26

The score is driven primarily by solid financial performance (improving 2025 growth/profitability and materially lower leverage) and supportive valuation (low P/E with a meaningful dividend). Offsetting these positives, technical indicators show weak near-term momentum with the stock trading below key moving averages and a negative MACD, which lowers the overall score despite oversold readings.

Positive Factors

Improving Revenue and MarginsThe combination of stronger revenue growth and expanding margins indicates improved operating performance and customer activity. If maintained, this progress can support earnings growth, provide more internal funding for expansion, and strengthen the bank’s competitive position over the next several quarters.

Negative Factors

Subdued Return on EquityPersistently high-single-digit ROE indicates that the bank is generating less profit from its equity base than it did during its stronger 2022 period. This weaker capital efficiency can limit earnings compounding and suggests that improved leverage has not yet translated into equivalent shareholder returns.

Exchange Bank (Santa Rosa) (EXSR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap: $256.65M
Dividend Yield: 3.52%
Average Volume (3M): 1,051
Price to Earnings (P/E): 7.9
Beta (1Y): 0.21
Revenue Growth: 2.63%
EPS Growth: 8.01%
Country: US
Employees: 400
Sector: Financial
Sector Strength: 68
Industry: Banks - Regional

Exchange Bank (Santa Rosa) Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Exchange Bank (Santa Rosa, CA), headquartered in Santa Rosa, California, along with its associated entities, delivers a full spectrum of commercial and retail banking services to individual clients and businesses throughout California. For personal b...

Exchange Bank (Santa Rosa) Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Solid fundamentals overall: revenue growth improved in 2025 (~14%) with net margin rising to ~19% (vs ~16% in 2024). The balance sheet is notably de-risked with sharply lower leverage (debt-to-equity ~0.12 in 2025 vs ~0.50 in 2024), though ROE remains in the high single digits (~8–9%), well below the stronger 2022 level (~19%). Cash generation is generally supportive (FCF ~90% of net income) but has been somewhat choppy year to year.

Income Statement

76Positive

Balance Sheet

82Very Positive

Cash Flow

71Positive

Financial statement breakdown
Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	157.86M	155.61M	148.10M	114.15M	125.58M	118.95M
Gross Profit	122.66M	117.50M	110.45M	114.15M	123.50M	115.19M
EBITDA	40.76M	38.95M	35.66M	29.99M	52.33M	53.06M
Net Income	32.43M	29.97M	23.85M	20.19M	37.48M	36.41M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.19B	3.30B	3.30B	3.37B	3.33B	3.54B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	0	1.40B	28.64M	35.65M	48.37M	472.97M
Total Debt	0	40.00M	140.00M	232.66M	28.21M	7.94M
Total Liabilities	2.84B	2.96B	3.02B	3.11B	3.13B	3.22B
Stockholders Equity	344.36M	346.73M	280.81M	255.41M	202.02M	319.20M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0	21.72M	25.62M	36.15M	34.46M	27.58M
Operating Cash Flow	0	24.11M	27.47M	38.69M	37.62M	37.80M
Investing Cash Flow	0	95.44M	0	34.12M	-360.98M	-288.56M
Financing Cash Flow	0	-66.16M	0	-31.57M	-101.24M	387.32M

Exchange Bank (Santa Rosa) Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentNegative

Last Price150.12

Price Trends

50DMA156.68Negative

100DMA159.12Negative

200DMA152.49Negative

Market Momentum

MACD-2.09Positive

RSI36.27Neutral

STOCH2.28Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For EXSR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 150.12 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 155.70, below the 50-day MA of 156.68, and below the 200-day MA of 152.49, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -2.09 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 36.27 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 2.28 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for EXSR.

Exchange Bank (Santa Rosa) Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (68)

Financial Indicators

EXSR against its peers
Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
FRAF	79Outperform	$313.65M	11.24	15.56%	1.94%	7.25%	76.40%
EFSI	76Outperform	$249.06M	13.94	9.27%	2.70%	17.02%	47.37%
EXSR	71Outperform	$257.31M	7.91	9.29%	3.52%	2.63%	8.01%
OPBK	70Outperform	$223.54M	7.41	12.79%	3.61%	7.48%	28.18%
FXNC	68Neutral	$271.90M	11.77	12.06%	2.27%	0.87%	103.52%
Sector *	68Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
INBK	66Neutral	$221.53M	14.75	4.17%	0.95%	7.39%	―

* Financial Sector Average

Performance Comparison

EXSR and its peers over the selected period
Ticker	Company Name	Price	Change	% Change
EXSR	Exchange Bank (Santa Rosa)	150.12	33.44	28.66%
INBK	First Internet Bancorp	25.36	8.28	48.50%
OPBK	Op Bancorp	14.97	2.77	22.68%
FXNC	First National Corp	30.02	7.10	30.95%
FRAF	Franklin Financial Services	69.69	22.82	48.68%
EFSI	Eagle Financial Services	46.01	12.20	36.08%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Nov 07, 2026

Exchange Bank (Santa Rosa) AI Stock Analysis