Dynavax (DVAX) AI Stock Analysis

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Dynavax

(NASDAQ:DVAX)

48Neutral

Dynavax's overall score is affected by weak financial performance due to declining revenues and net losses, which are somewhat offset by a strong balance sheet and adequate cash flow management. Technical indicators are bearish, and the stock's valuation is unappealing due to the negative P/E ratio. The earnings call provides a positive outlook with revenue growth and strategic advancements, which somewhat mitigates the financial and technical weaknesses. Continued focus on growth and cost management will be key to improving the company's financial health.

Positive Factors

Financial Performance

Heplisav-B gross margin was 82% in 4Q24, indicating strong profitability from the product.

Market Share Growth

Heplisav has continued to gain and maintain market share, with an estimated share of the U.S. HBV market increasing to ~43%.

Strategic Developments

Recent developments supporting HEPLISAV-B include the addition of the hepatitis B vaccination to Medicare Part B reimbursement.

Negative Factors

Revenue Miss

Year-over-year market share gains and revenue growth of 36% are still encouraging despite a slight miss on sales estimates.

Sales Performance

First-quarter Heplisav sales came in below estimates, reflecting a miss on expectations.

Dynavax (DVAX) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Market Cap

$1.16B

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)2.85M

Price to Earnings (P/E)64.5

Beta (1Y)0.38

Revenue Growth24.76%

EPS Growth-783.38%

CountryUS

Employees405

SectorHealthcare

Sector Strength41

IndustryDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)-0.77

Shares Outstanding120,080,650

10 Day Avg. Volume2,911,850

30 Day Avg. Volume2,850,804

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio1.60

Price to Book (P/B)2.93

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio28.21

Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$24.25

Price Target Upside150.78% Upside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering5

Dynavax Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionDynavax Technologies Corporation (DVAX) is a biopharmaceutical company focused on leveraging the power of the body's innate and adaptive immune responses through toll-like receptor (TLR) stimulation. The company is primarily engaged in the development and commercialization of novel vaccines. Its core product, HEPLISAV-B, is a hepatitis B vaccine for adults, which utilizes a proprietary toll-like receptor 9 agonist to enhance the immune response.

How the Company Makes MoneyDynavax makes money primarily through the sale and distribution of HEPLISAV-B, its FDA-approved hepatitis B vaccine for adults. The company generates revenue by marketing this vaccine to healthcare providers, clinics, and government entities. Key revenue streams include product sales, which are driven by demand in both the private and public healthcare sectors. Additionally, Dynavax may receive revenue from partnerships and collaborations with other pharmaceutical companies or government agencies for the development of new vaccines or immunotherapy solutions. These collaborations can provide upfront payments, milestone payments, and royalties on future sales, contributing to the company's earnings.

Dynavax Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Dynavax has shown positive revenue growth and a healthy gross margin, but profitability remains a concern with negative EBIT and EBITDA margins. The balance sheet is stable with a strong equity position but carries some leverage risk. Cash flow performance is solid, with efficient cash generation and management, supporting the company's operations despite ongoing profitability challenges.

Income Statement

Neutral

Dynavax shows a growth in revenue from the previous year, with a revenue growth rate of 19.34% in the latest period. However, the company has struggled with profitability, as seen in the negative EBIT and EBITDA margins, indicating operational challenges. The gross profit margin is healthy at 100% due to the total revenue equating to gross profit, but net profit margin is modest at 9.85% due to net income being relatively low compared to total revenue.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The balance sheet reflects a strong equity base with an equity ratio of 60.50%, indicating financial stability. However, the debt-to-equity ratio is relatively high at 0.42, suggesting some leverage risk. Return on equity is low at 4.58%, suggesting that the company is not generating substantial returns on shareholders' equity.

Cash Flow

Positive

Dynavax shows strong operating cash flow relative to net income, with a robust free cash flow growth rate of 6.90%. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 2.43, reflecting efficient cash generation. The company's free cash flow to net income ratio is also strong at 2.20, indicating effective cash management.

Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
277.25M	232.28M	722.68M	439.44M	46.55M
	Gross Profit
277.25M	182.12M	460.53M	265.87M	32.64M
	EBIT
-4.12M	-37.03M	283.52M	134.49M	-75.22M
	EBITDA
45.70M	9.67M	307.70M	95.71M	-46.84M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
27.31M	-6.39M	293.16M	76.71M	-91.78M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
713.83M	742.30M	624.39M	545.95M	165.04M
	Total Assets
986.26M	997.10M	985.85M	1.04B	353.27M
	Total Debt
250.24M	256.91M	258.01M	257.38M	217.85M
	Net Debt
154.36M	106.64M	56.01M	-178.81M	185.77M
	Total Liabilities
389.46M	375.02M	404.84M	816.87M	294.58M
	Stockholders Equity
596.80M	622.07M	581.01M	222.37M	58.69M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
60.16M	96.46M	55.58M	326.05M	-103.32M
	Operating Cash Flow
66.51M	100.56M	62.72M	335.53M	-92.25M
	Investing Cash Flow
-18.04M	-153.93M	-316.00M	14.22M	-26.53M
	Financing Cash Flow
-102.02M	1.39M	19.52M	55.78M	109.50M

Dynavax Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price9.67

Price Trends

50DMA

11.95

Negative

100DMA

12.47

Negative

200DMA

12.03

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

-0.66

Positive

RSI

34.97

Neutral

STOCH

14.43

Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DVAX, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 9.67 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.50, below the 50-day MA of 11.95, and below the 200-day MA of 12.03, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.66 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 34.97 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 14.43 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for DVAX.

Dynavax Risk Analysis

Dynavax disclosed 50 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Dynavax reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Dynavax Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (52)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SUPN	71 Outperform	$1.87B	30.27	6.32%	―	11.82%	―
AMPH	70 Outperform	$1.17B	9.02	19.90%	―	8.05%	-8.46%
PCRX	63 Neutral	$1.20B	―	-12.27%	―	3.08%	-247.82%
ANIP	60 Neutral	$1.30B	―	-5.19%	―	30.26%	-173.36%
Sector *	52 Neutral	$5.15B	3.02	-44.64%	2.83%	16.44%	-0.47%
DVAX	48 Neutral	$1.16B	64.45	-10.45%	―	24.76%	-783.38%
EVO	45 Neutral	$1.43B	―	-20.41%	―	0.45%	-125.61%

* Healthcare Sector Average

Performance Comparison

DVAX

Dynavax

9.83

-1.56

-13.70%

PCRX

Pacira Pharmaceuticals

25.86

-4.75

-15.52%

SUPN

Supernus Pharmaceuticals

33.43

4.66

16.20%

ANIP

ANI Pharmaceuticals

60.16

-1.57

-2.54%

AMPH

Amphastar Pharmaceuticals

24.86

-18.21

-42.28%

EVO

Evotec AG

3.97

-1.24

-23.80%

Dynavax Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2025

(Q1-2025)

% Change Since: -11.45%|

Next Earnings Date:Jul 31, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

Dynavax demonstrated strong financial performance with record revenue and market share growth for HEPLISAV-B, alongside meaningful pipeline advancements and new programs. However, financial challenges such as a significant allowance for doubtful accounts and a substantial GAAP net loss due to debt refinancing impacted the quarter. Despite these challenges, the overall outlook remains positive with expectations of achieving the upper half of revenue guidance and strong EBITDA growth.

Q1-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Record First Quarter Net Revenue for HEPLISAV-B

Dynavax reported its highest ever first quarter net revenue for HEPLISAV-B at $65 million, which was a 36% increase compared to the previous year. This performance sets the company on track to achieve the top half of their full-year guidance range of net product sales between $305 million and $325 million.

Expansion of Development Pipeline

Dynavax is advancing its development pipeline with significant clinical trial milestones for its shingles and plague vaccine programs. Additionally, new programs for pandemic influenza and Lyme disease vaccines were announced, leveraging their CpG-1018 adjuvant technology.

Strong Market Position for HEPLISAV-B

HEPLISAV-B's estimated U.S. market share rose to 43% in Q1, up from 41% in the same period last year, driven by broad-based gains and consistent annual market share increases across major retail customers.

Positive Financial Outlook

Dynavax expects adjusted EBITDA to be at least $75 million for the full year 2025, demonstrating their ability to grow adjusted EBITDA at more than two times the rate of product revenue.

Negative Updates

Allowance for Doubtful Accounts

Dynavax recorded an $11 million allowance for doubtful accounts related to a legacy COVID-19 adjuvant commercial supply agreement with Clover Biopharmaceuticals due to their reported liquidity issues as of December 31, 2024.

GAAP Net Loss

The company reported a GAAP net loss of $96 million for the first quarter of 2025, primarily due to the GAAP accounting treatment of their debt refinancing, compared to a GAAP net loss of $9 million for the first quarter of 2024.

Company Guidance

In the Dynavax Technologies' First Quarter 2025 Financial Results Conference Call, the company provided guidance with several key metrics. They reported a record first quarter net revenue for HEPLISAV-B of $65 million, a 36% increase from the previous year, putting them on track to reach the top half of their annual guidance range of $305 million to $325 million in net product sales. HEPLISAV-B's U.S. market share increased to 43% in Q1 2025 from 41% the previous year, with expectations of reaching over 60% by 2030 as the market is anticipated to peak at $900 million. Additionally, they are advancing their shingles program, with a top line readout expected in Q3 2025, and have announced new programs for pandemic influenza and Lyme disease. The company is executing a $200 million share repurchase program, having completed over 85% of it, and aims to maintain disciplined cost management with SG&A expenses expected to remain flat for the year. They reaffirmed their HEPLISAV-B gross margin guidance at approximately 80% for 2025.

Dynavax Corporate Events

Executive/Board Changes

Dynavax Appoints New Chief Accounting Officer

Neutral

May 13, 2025

On May 8, 2025, Dynavax Technologies Corporation announced the appointment of Joseph Metzinger as Vice President and Chief Accounting Officer, effective May 12, 2025. Metzinger, a seasoned financial executive with 19 years of experience, has been consulting for Dynavax since 2024 and previously held senior roles at CFGI and ACC Consumer Finance. His appointment includes a base salary, performance bonus, and stock options, with no familial or transactional ties to current executives.

The most recent analyst rating on (DVAX) stock is a Buy with a $29.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Dynavax stock, see the DVAX Stock Forecast page.

Spark’s Take on DVAX Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, DVAX is a Neutral.

Dynavax scores moderately due to strong cash flow and revenue growth, balanced by operational challenges and negative profitability. Technical indicators show bearish sentiment, while the valuation is hampered by a negative P/E. Despite positive earnings call guidance, financial headwinds limit the score.

To see Spark’s full report on DVAX stock, click here.

Glossary

OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.

NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.

UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.