Collegium Pharmaceutical (COLL) AI Stock Analysis

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Collegium Pharmaceutical

(NASDAQ:COLL)

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Rating:64Neutral

Price Target:$24.50▲(3.24% Upside)

Action:reiterated

Date:10/20/26

The score is primarily supported by strong financial performance (notably revenue acceleration and robust free cash flow) and a constructive earnings outlook tied to ADHD-led growth. These positives are tempered by balance-sheet leverage and a technically weak longer-term price trend, while valuation appears reasonable at a mid-teens P/E.

Positive Factors

ADHD Portfolio GrowthRapid Jornay PM growth and expanding branded market share indicate durable commercial traction in ADHD treatment. Rising prescriptions, prescriber reach, and share support a growing franchise that can diversify Collegium beyond its pressured opioid portfolio over the next several quarters.

Negative Factors

Elevated LeverageDebt remains large relative to equity, leaving Collegium more sensitive to earnings volatility and refinancing conditions. Although leverage improved from prior years, the balance sheet still limits financial flexibility after the Azstarys acquisition and could constrain future capital allocation if performance weakens.

Collegium Pharmaceutical (COLL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap: $772.54M
Dividend Yield: ―
Average Volume (3M): 823.90K
Price to Earnings (P/E): 15.5
Beta (1Y): 0.32
Revenue Growth: 14.31%
EPS Growth: 34.35%
Country: US
Employees: 423
Sector: Healthcare
Sector Strength: 51
Industry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic

Collegium Pharmaceutical Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc. (COLL) is a specialized pharmaceutical firm dedicated to the development and marketing of medications for pain management. Its diverse product lineup features significant therapies aimed at addressing various pain condi...

How the Company Makes Money

Collegium makes money primarily by selling its prescription pain medicines to the U.S. market. Its key revenue streams are net product revenues from (1) Xtampza ER, and (2) the Nucynta franchise (Nucynta ER and Nucynta IR). Revenue is recognized base...

Collegium Pharmaceutical Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 05, 2026(Q2-2026)|% Change Since:-33.60%|Next Earnings Date:Nov 04, 2026

Earnings Call SentimentPositive

The call highlighted strong, accelerating growth in the ADHD franchise—Jornay PM momentum, the strategic Azstarys acquisition with early revenue and raised guidance, Belbuca growth and incremental formulary wins, and an 8% increase in adjusted EBITDA. Offsetting these positives were meaningful declines in the NUCYNTA franchise driven by authorized generic pricing, a decline in Xtampza ER, a GAAP net loss driven by acquisition-related costs, substantial cash deployed to acquire Azstarys and a modest leverage increase, and potential LOE risk for Belbuca. Overall, management presented a constructive outlook focused on ADHD-led growth and disciplined capital deployment while acknowledging near-term pain portfolio pressures and one-time acquisition impacts.

Positive Updates

Jornay PM Prescription and Revenue Growth

Jornay PM prescriptions grew 13.1% year-over-year; net revenue for Jornay PM was $46.1 million in Q2, up 41% year-over-year. Prescribers exceeded 30,000 (up 17.6% YoY).

Negative Updates

NUCYNTA Franchise Revenue Decline and Authorized Generic Pricing Impact

Total NUCYNTA franchise net revenue declined 24% YoY to $35.2 million in Q2. Revenue was lower-than-expected due to net pricing pressure from authorized generic (AG) agreements; CFO noted AG net realizations ~10%–15% of branded net price for IR and ~20%–25% for ER on AG volume.

Company Guidance

Collegium reaffirmed full‑year guidance for Jornay PM of $190–200 million and raised its Azstarys outlook to $65–75 million, driving updated total product revenue guidance of $825–855 million (about +8% year‑over‑year at the midpoint); adjusted EBITDA was guided to $445–470 million (essentially flat vs. 2025) and Jornay PM gross‑to‑net is expected to remain in the mid‑60% range. Management said the guidance update primarily reflects lower‑than‑expected NUCYNTA revenue due to authorized generic pricing, noted Azstarys generated $12.9 million of initial sales in Q2, and reported Q2 operating cash flow of $71.3 million, ending cash and marketable securities of $129.5 million after using approximately $356 million to fund the Azstarys acquisition, with net debt to adjusted EBITDA of ~2.1x.

Collegium Pharmaceutical Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong recent revenue acceleration and solid core profitability, backed by robust operating cash flow and free cash flow. The key offset is elevated leverage (debt-to-equity ~2.6x) and some earnings-quality noise (large EBITDA vs. EBIT gap and historical bottom-line volatility).

Income Statement

78Positive

Balance Sheet

54Neutral

Cash Flow

72Positive

Financial statement breakdown
Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	808.21M	780.57M	631.45M	566.77M	463.93M	276.87M
Gross Profit	485.09M	463.26M	377.34M	326.17M	209.49M	150.62M
EBITDA	473.40M	401.00M	341.70M	308.33M	173.31M	86.56M
Net Income	47.91M	62.87M	69.19M	48.16M	-25.00M	71.52M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.14B	1.66B	1.66B	1.14B	1.17B	692.08M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	129.47M	406.53M	162.76M	310.55M	173.69M	186.43M
Total Debt	857.79M	940.56M	859.30M	674.28M	709.17M	258.75M
Total Liabilities	1.82B	1.36B	1.43B	947.88M	979.29M	489.15M
Stockholders Equity	311.91M	301.68M	228.84M	195.43M	194.84M	202.93M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	328.28M	327.58M	203.33M	274.29M	122.61M	101.61M
Operating Cash Flow	329.92M	329.32M	204.98M	274.75M	124.23M	103.56M
Investing Cash Flow	-551.90M	-63.53M	-287.76M	-70.81M	-573.69M	-1.94M
Financing Cash Flow	234.11M	-110.25M	-60.60M	-140.18M	436.72M	-89.30M

Collegium Pharmaceutical Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentPositive

Last Price23.73

Price Trends

50DMA23.16Positive

100DMA28.33Negative

200DMA33.01Negative

Market Momentum

MACD0.13Negative

RSI55.93Neutral

STOCH67.50Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For COLL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 23.73 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 22.94, above the 50-day MA of 23.16, and below the 200-day MA of 33.01, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.13 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 55.93 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 67.50 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for COLL.

Collegium Pharmaceutical Risk Analysis

Collegium Pharmaceutical disclosed 43 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Collegium Pharmaceutical reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.

Legal & Regulatory - Litigation, compliance, new legislation, and taxation risks

Latest Risks Added

1 New Risk

1.Our ability to realize the benefits from the Azstarys Acquisition is substantially dependent on the timely and effective integration of the Azstarys operations into our ongoing operations.Q2, 2026

Collegium Pharmaceutical Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (51)

Financial Indicators

COLL against its peers
Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ANIP	75Outperform	$1.62B	14.96	19.19%	―	30.90%	―
COLL	64Neutral	$770.92M	15.51	15.96%	―	14.31%	34.35%
INDV	63Neutral	$4.28B	9.91	-352.94%	22.41%	16.44%	265.06%
PCRX	62Neutral	$1.45B	103.35	2.13%	―	5.71%	―
AMRX	58Neutral	$7.12B	47.00	119.00%	―	8.88%	2272.07%
Sector *	51Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
AQST	47Neutral	$473.18M	-6.06	243.68%	―	22.56%	5.86%

* Healthcare Sector Average

Performance Comparison

COLL and its peers over the selected period
Ticker	Company Name	Price	Change	% Change
COLL	Collegium Pharmaceutical Inc.	23.73	-12.12	-33.81%
PCRX	Pacira	36.39	14.54	66.54%
ANIP	Ani Pharmaceuticals	72.28	-20.34	-21.96%
INDV	Indivior PLC	28.15	3.28	13.20%
AMRX	Amneal Pharma	20.21	8.52	72.88%
AQST	Aquestive Therapeutics, Inc.	3.88	-2.12	-35.33%

Collegium Pharmaceutical Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyLegal Proceedings

Collegium Pharmaceutical Settles Nucynta ER Patent Dispute

Positive

Oct 19, 2026

On October 15, 2026, Collegium Pharmaceutical and Grünenthal GmbH entered into a settlement agreement resolving all disputes, including a U.S. patent infringement lawsuit filed in February 2026 over Collegium’s launch of an authorized gene...

Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback

Collegium Pharmaceutical Launches $50 Million Accelerated Share Buyback

Positive

Aug 13, 2026

On August 12, 2026, Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc. announced it had entered into an accelerated share repurchase agreement with Jefferies LLC to buy back $50 million of its common stock under a previously authorized $150 million repurchase program. C...

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions

Collegium Pharmaceutical Updates Guidance After AZSTARYS Acquisition

Neutral

Aug 6, 2026

In the quarter ended June 30, 2026, Collegium reported net product revenues of $199.9 million, up 6% year-over-year, supported by strong growth in its ADHD portfolio and a solid, though pressured, pain franchise. JORNAY PM net revenue surged 41% to $...

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Oct 20, 2026

Collegium Pharmaceutical AI Stock Analysis