Credit Agricole (XCAU) AI Stock Analysis

Company Guidance

Management expects CA Savings on-balance sheet savings to increase from EUR 15 billion in Germany to EUR 40 billion across Europe, with the number of customers to double, 650 new customers per day at the end of the year, roughly 30,000 to 40,000 new customers in Germany by year-end and roughly EUR 1 billion in additional outstandings; the platform is expected to roll out in 6 other European countries shortly from 2027 and onwards. Credit Agricole Deutschland will add financial savings and retirement savings in 2027, while the IKB acquisition targets 15% ROI within 3 years, with closing planned at the end of the first half of 2027 and a 20 basis points CET1 impact. Management expects LCL 2026 net interest income to be in the mid-teens and maintains guidance for 6% growth in net interest income over the years 2026 and 2028; cost of risk remains in the hypothesis of around 40 basis points or below, 2026 SFS investments should remain below EUR 50 million, and the EUR 350 million LCL investment is expected to capture 1.2 million new customers by 2028. The 14% ROTE target is considered a minimum over the medium-term plan, the 50% cash distribution target remains, Banco BPM contribution should be around EUR 140 million per quarter onwards, and mobility is expected to have a not good Q4, 2027 should also be a year where things are not going to be that great, with things expected to pick up in 2028.