Metcash Limited (MG9) AI Stock Analysis

Company Guidance

Management guided that the group enters FY2027 from a position of strength after FY2026 revenue of AUD 19.6bn (up 3.8% excl. tobacco), EBITDA before strategy & integration of AUD 774m, operating cash flow of AUD 558m and a three‑year cash realization ratio of 104.2% (target 80–90%); leverage is around 1x with closing net debt AUD 616.6m and committed facilities of AUD 1.57bn (≈AUD 967m undrawn). For FY2027 they expect CapEx of ~AUD 150m (ex‑acquisitions), depreciation & amortization to increase by a low double‑digit percentage as Project Horizon assets come on stream, corporate costs of ~AUD 20–22m per half, net finance costs of ~AUD 130–135m, and Project Horizon’s first final deployment planned in Q4 2026 (with cost guidance unchanged if the second deployment proceeds safely). Capital management guidance included a total FY26 dividend of AUD 0.18/share (final AUD 0.095), ~74% payout ratio and suspension of the DRP; other noted metrics: ROFE ~20%, FY26 investment spend ~AUD 244m, FY26 CapEx AUD 175m, food EBIT AUD 261.8m (up 5.4%, margin 2.5% +14bps), hardware revenue (incl. charge‑through) AUD 3.7bn (+4.3%), an expected ~AUD 10m FY27 hit to food earnings from removal of the accelerated tobacco excise, and management targets AUD 25m of cost savings (AUD 15m people, AUD 10m procurement).