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Amcor (4850) AI Stock Analysis

DE:4850

Amcor

(Frankfurt:4850)

Rating:―N/A
Action:N/A
Date:―

No summary available

Positive Factors
Global Packaging ScaleAmcor's global manufacturing footprint, procurement scale, and long-standing B2B relationships support customer retention and operating efficiency. Its engineered packaging, design, material-science, and healthcare capabilities can provide differentiation beyond commodity packaging.
Negative Factors
Revenue and Margin PressureThe combination of declining revenue and lower profitability suggests demand, pricing, or mix pressures are weighing on the earnings base. Persistent margin compression would reduce reinvestment capacity and make synergy delivery more important to sustaining returns.

Amcor (4850) vs. iShares MSCI Germany ETF (EWG)

-10%0%10%20%30%40%DE:4850+32.26%EWG+6.61%Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26
Market Cap
EUR 22.66B
Dividend Yield
5.19%
Average Volume (3M)
240
Price to Earnings (P/E)
18.1
Beta (1Y)
0.67
Revenue Growth
46.69%
EPS Growth
21.10%
Country
Germany
Employees
75,000
Sector
Consumer Cyclical
Sector Strength
61
Industry
Packaging & Containers

Amcor Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Amcor plc stands as a prominent global provider of packaging solutions, focusing on the creation, production, and distribution of its diverse product portfolio across Europe, North America, Latin America, Africa, and the Asia Pacific regions. The com...

Amcor Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 11, 2026(Q4-2026)|% Change Since:5.43%|Next Earnings Date:Nov 03, 2026
Earnings Call SentimentPositive

The call presented a generally positive operational and financial story: management delivered strong EPS growth, exceeded initial synergy expectations, showed sequential volume improvement, expanded margins in both core segments, and announced dividend growth while improving safety performance. However, near-term cash flow and balance-sheet metrics were pressured by a $500M working-capital impact tied to the Middle East conflict, $290M of integration-related cash costs, and modest organic volume expansion. Management expects to recover working capital over 12 months, achieve the remaining synergies toward the $650M target, and deliver double-digit adjusted EPS growth in calendar 2027, which underpins a constructive outlook despite short-term headwinds.

Positive Updates

Strong EPS Growth
Q4 adjusted EPS of $1.23, up 23% year-over-year; full year fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS of $4.02, up 13% year-over-year — delivering on prior target of double-digit adjusted EPS growth for fiscal 2026.

Negative Updates

Free Cash Flow Shortfall
Fiscal 2026 free cash flow of $1.3 billion, which was $200 million below the company's outlook range (impacted by transaction/integration cash and working capital effects related to the Middle East conflict).

Company Guidance

Amcor guided adjusted EPS of $1.80–$1.90 for the six months ending Dec. 31, 2026 (versus prior-year $1.83, after a $0.04 divestiture impact bringing the baseline to $1.79), with the outlook reflecting a $0.10–$0.12 headwind from higher interest and taxes and a $0.13–$0.21 tailwind from synergy capture and net operating performance; leverage is expected to be 3.5–3.6x at Dec. 31, 2026 (seasonally lower earnings/cash flow) and roughly 3x by year-end 2027, with management targeting double-digit adjusted EPS growth in calendar 2027 and mid-single-digit EBITDA growth implied into that year; management also reiterated capital/cash assumptions (FY2026 free cash flow $1.3B, target to recover >$500M of working capital over 12 months—roughly $100–$300M in the first six months—CapEx ≈5% of sales), noted Q4 synergies of $115M and FY synergies of $285M toward a $650M three‑year target (including ~$140M of growth wins so far), and declared a quarterly dividend of $0.65 per share.

Amcor Risk Analysis

Amcor disclosed 33 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Amcor reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Higher RiskSector Avg.Lower RiskFinance & CorporateTech & InnovationLegal & RegulatoryProductionAbility to SellMacro & Political
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added

3 New Risks
1.Integration - We may face challenges with integrating acquisitions and achieving the financial and other results and benefits anticipated at the time of acquisition.Q2, 2026
2.Strategic Review of Portfolio - Our strategic review of our portfolio may cause disruptions to our business, may not result in the completion of transactions to restructure or divest all non-core businesses, and may not create additional value for our shareholders.Q2, 2026
3.Artificial Intelligence - Our use of artificial intelligence technologies could adversely affect our business and financial results.Q2, 2026

Amcor Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)

Financial Indicators

DE:4850 against its peers
NameOverall RatingMarket CapP/E RatioROEDividend YieldRevenue GrowthEPS Growth
CCKCCK71Outperform$12.88B17.0927.10%1.06%13.75%-11.09%
SLGNSLGN69Neutral$4.28B17.1611.09%1.95%4.48%-16.03%
BALLBALL68Neutral$17.59B19.2817.04%1.18%16.86%64.01%
Sector *61Neutral$18.38B12.79-2.54%3.03%1.52%-15.83%
SWSW54Neutral$22.53B48.222.56%4.12%1.11%-37.09%
SONSON45Neutral$4.94B-23.80-6.12%4.26%3.56%-11673.60%

* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average

Performance Comparison

0%20%40%DE:4850BALLCCKSLGNSONSWDec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26
DE:4850 and its peers over the selected period
Show on chartTickerCompany NamePriceChange% Change
DE:4850Amcor42.2010.6933.90%
BALLBall Corporation68.0720.9044.31%
CCKCrown Holdings123.2427.1528.26%
SLGNSilgan42.554.7312.51%
SONSonoco Products Company50.2111.8030.72%
SWSmurfit Westrock PLC43.408.5724.61%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.