Etsy (3E2) AI Stock Analysis

Etsy

(XETRA:3E2)

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Action:N/A

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Positive Factors

Accelerating Marketplace GrowthSustained acceleration in marketplace GMS indicates improving demand and renewed platform momentum rather than isolated growth. Continued expansion can increase transaction revenue, strengthen seller participation, and provide a larger base for Etsy’s advertising and payment services.

Negative Factors

Negative Equity and Elevated LeverageNegative equity reduces balance-sheet flexibility and makes leverage harder to assess through conventional capital-base measures. Although debt has declined, elevated leverage could constrain investment choices and increase vulnerability if marketplace growth or profitability weakens.

Etsy (3E2) vs. iShares MSCI Germany ETF (EWG)

Market Cap: EUR 7.67B
Dividend Yield: ―
Average Volume (3M): 182
Price to Earnings (P/E): 8.3
Beta (1Y): 0.93
Revenue Growth: -4.54%
EPS Growth: 506.04%
Country: Germany
Employees: 2,375
Sector: Consumer Cyclical
Sector Strength: 61
Industry: Specialty Retail

Etsy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Etsy, Inc. oversees online retail platforms designed to link independent merchants with a global customer base. Its primary marketplace is dedicated to unique and handcrafted items, while its Depop division focuses on the resale of apparel. The compa...

Etsy Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Oct 27, 2026(Q3-2026)|% Change Since:3.96%|Next Earnings Date:Feb 24, 2027

Earnings Call SentimentPositive

The call was strongly constructive. Etsy reported accelerating GMS, revenue, adjusted EBITDA, active-buyer growth, seller growth, improved marketing efficiency, strong cash generation, debt reduction, and increased shareholder returns. Management also highlighted measurable contributions from personalization and continued progress in search, discovery, AI, and marketplace quality. The main challenges were modestly declining purchase frequency, expected fourth-quarter growth moderation, foreign-currency headwinds, tougher comparisons, holiday uncertainty, and upcoming executive transitions. Overall, the breadth and magnitude of the positive developments significantly outweighed the explicitly stated challenges.

Positive Updates

Marketplace GMS Growth Accelerated

Etsy marketplace GMS reached $2.6 billion in the third quarter, increasing 8.8% year-over-year. The company said this marked three consecutive quarters of accelerating growth and that the business is now firmly in growth mode.

Negative Updates

Overall Purchase Frequency Remained Down

Purchase frequency remained modestly down year-over-year, and management said overall frequency was down modestly throughout the year. Although repeat and habitual buyers increased sequentially and engagement indicators improved, Etsy said it was not yet comping positively year-over-year on total frequency.

Company Guidance

For the fourth quarter, Etsy anticipates marketplace GMS will be between $3.46 billion and $3.52 billion, representing year-over-year growth of approximately 5%-7%, with take rate approximately 25.6% and adjusted EBITDA margin approximately 30%; for the full year, it anticipates GMS growth of approximately 7%, take rate about 25.8%, and adjusted EBITDA margin roughly 30%. The outlook assumes overall macroeconomic factors remain relatively consistent, foreign currency is a modest growth headwind, and prior year comparisons become less favorable in the fourth quarter; marketing spending will be guided by the gains in efficiency made year-to-date and an ROI target.

Etsy Risk Analysis

Etsy disclosed 45 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Etsy reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added

0 New Risks

Etsy Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (61)

Financial Indicators

DE:3E2 against its peers
Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
WSM	79Outperform	$29.77B	25.53	57.79%	1.16%	2.24%	7.35%
AMZN	74Outperform	$2.59T	19.17	26.71%	―	15.35%	73.92%
EBAY	71Outperform	$53.40B	26.05	46.11%	1.00%	15.33%	-0.34%
MELI	64Neutral	$82.36B	44.20	26.54%	―	46.01%	-9.25%
TDUP	62Neutral	$273.18M	-11.65	-37.30%	―	15.58%	64.75%
Sector *	61Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%

* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average

Performance Comparison

DE:3E2 and its peers over the selected period
Ticker	Company Name	Price	Change	% Change
DE:3E2	Etsy Inc	79.74	26.84	50.74%
AMZN	Amazon.Com, Inc.	240.35	-13.65	-5.37%
EBAY	Ebay Inc	121.64	39.91	48.84%
MELI	Mercadolibre, Inc.	1624.53	-691.87	-29.87%
WSM	Williams-Sonoma	252.72	62.68	32.98%
TDUP	Thredup, Inc.	2.08	-6.42	-75.53%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Etsy AI Stock Analysis