Alcoa (185) AI Stock Analysis

Alcoa

(XETRA:185)

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Positive Factors

Improved ProfitabilityAlcoa’s materially stronger TTM revenue and margins show improved earnings power compared with the weaker 2022–2024 period. If operational performance and market conditions remain supportive, the higher profitability can provide more capacity for investment, debt service, and shareholder returns over the next several quarters.

Negative Factors

Commodity-Cycle Earnings VolatilityThe history of losses and near-break-even profitability demonstrates that Alcoa’s earnings remain highly dependent on aluminum and alumina prices and operating costs. This cyclicality can quickly reduce margins and cash generation when market conditions weaken, limiting earnings predictability.

Alcoa (185) vs. iShares MSCI Germany ETF (EWG)

Market Cap: EUR 10.34B
Dividend Yield: 0.99%
Average Volume (3M): 867
Price to Earnings (P/E): 6.7
Beta (1Y): 1.16
Revenue Growth: 4.32%
EPS Growth: 23.79%
Country: Germany
Employees: 14,900
Sector: Basic Materials
Sector Strength: 61
Industry: Aluminum

Alcoa Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Alcoa Corporation stands as a global industrial leader, primarily focused on the production and sale of bauxite, alumina, and aluminum products. Its extensive operations span multiple continents, including North America (United States, Canada), Europ...

Alcoa Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Oct 14, 2026(Q3-2026)|% Change Since:-2.56%|Next Earnings Date:Jan 19, 2027

Earnings Call SentimentPositive

The call was predominantly positive, supported by strong operational execution, production records, improved Pinjarra performance, solid cash generation, favorable alumina and aluminum market fundamentals, progress on the AliGroup acquisition, and the Massena East monetization agreement. However, management also addressed a fatality, lower metal prices, sequentially lower adjusted net income, higher carbon costs, mining approval delays, softer Chinese alumina conditions, and uncertainty around supply recovery. The highlights significantly outweighed the lowlights.

Positive Updates

Strong Third-Quarter Operational Performance

Alcoa reported strong third-quarter performance, including six year-to-date production records, an approximately 15,000 metric ton sequential increase in aluminum production, completion of the Alumar smelter restart, and a significant performance recovery at the Pinjarra refinery.

Negative Updates

Fatality at Alumar Smelter

A fatality occurred at the Alumar smelter in Brazil on September 16. Management said the loss deeply affected the company and that Alcoa is taking actions to strengthen its safety culture, reduce risk, and reinforce critical risk controls, leadership behaviors, and accountability.

Company Guidance

For the full year, Alcoa made only minor adjustments for transformation expenses, depreciation, interest expense and capital expenditures; for the fourth quarter, it expects higher production and shipments in both segments, while alumina performance elements are expected to be flat, excluding pricing, with maintenance moving between regions completely covered by improved shipment performance, and Aluminum costs are expected to increase by $30 million, including about $10 million more in carbon prices. The company expects to release about 10 days at least of working capital going into the fourth quarter, expects Western Australia mining approvals by mid-2027 after incorporating an additional 6 months of mining in current areas, and is thinking that probably 1.5 million metric tons of smelting capacity will come online in Indonesia next year against a 75 million metric ton market.

Alcoa Risk Analysis

Alcoa disclosed 32 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Alcoa reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added

3 New Risks

1.The issuance of shares of Alcoa common stock dilutes the ownership position of the Company's existing stockholders and the price of Alcoa common stock may be affected.Q2, 2026

2.Financing the Transaction may require substantial indebtedness, and permanent financing may not be available on favorable terms, which will increase available capital and credit-related risks.Q2, 2026

3.Alcoa may not realize the intended benefits of the Transaction, and integration may disrupt Alcoa's current plans or operations.Q2, 2026

Alcoa Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (61)

Financial Indicators

DE:185 against its peers
Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
RS	77Outperform	$22.26B	20.24	15.07%	1.13%	24.75%	56.89%
CENX	72Outperform	$3.34B	5.53	58.57%	―	9.67%	399.06%
CSTM	72Outperform	$3.11B	5.46	49.37%	―	26.10%	417.58%
Sector *	61Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
KALU	59Neutral	$1.90B	8.67	24.13%	2.65%	40.43%	136.99%
CLF	54Neutral	$8.13B	-16.01	-8.14%	―	8.10%	75.20%

* Basic Materials Sector Average

Performance Comparison

DE:185 and its peers over the selected period
Ticker	Company Name	Price	Change	% Change
DE:185	Alcoa Corporation	35.19	3.47	10.95%
CENX	Century Aluminum Co	33.70	2.97	9.66%
CLF	Cleveland-Cliffs	14.25	2.38	20.05%
KALU	Kaiser Aluminum	116.28	24.96	27.33%
RS	Reliance Steel & Aluminum	436.91	159.73	57.63%
CSTM	Constellium NV	23.11	6.89	42.48%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Alcoa AI Stock Analysis