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Valvoline (0V4) AI Stock Analysis

DE:0V4

Valvoline

(Frankfurt:0V4)

Rating:―N/A
Action:N/A
Date:―

No summary available

Positive Factors
Strong revenue and EBITDA growthStrong sales and EBITDA growth indicate broad operating momentum across Valvoline’s service network. If sustained, this combination can support reinvestment, improve operating leverage, and strengthen the company’s earnings base over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
High financial leverageThe substantial debt burden leaves Valvoline more exposed if profitability weakens or cash generation becomes inconsistent. High leverage can constrain capital allocation, increase refinancing sensitivity, and make earnings less resilient during periods of operating or cost pressure.

Valvoline (0V4) vs. iShares MSCI Germany ETF (EWG)

-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%DE:0V4+6.67%EWG+5.59%Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26
Market Cap
EUR 4.38B
Dividend Yield
―
Average Volume (3M)
36
Price to Earnings (P/E)
46.4
Beta (1Y)
0.37
Revenue Growth
8.28%
EPS Growth
-65.75%
Country
Germany
Employees
11,000
Sector
Consumer Cyclical
Sector Strength
61
Industry
Auto - Dealerships

Valvoline Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Valvoline Inc. is a prominent provider, involved in the manufacturing, distribution, and commercialization of a comprehensive range of engine and vehicle care products and related services. Its operations are structured into two distinct divisions: R...

Valvoline Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 04, 2026(Q3-2026)|% Change Since:-15.29%|Next Earnings Date:Nov 18, 2026
Earnings Call SentimentPositive

The call presented a strong operational and financial quarter with notable top-line growth (system-wide sales +19%, company net sales +24%), meaningful EBITDA and EPS expansion, improved cash flow and balance sheet metrics, continued network growth and positive early results from the Breeze integration. The primary drag is an industry-wide Group III base oil supply disruption (Strait of Hormuz) that has driven finished lubricant costs materially higher (≈60% vs March; ~$5–$7 per oil change) and creates near-term margin pressure (Q4 product-cost-driven compression). Management has taken pricing and operational actions, raised same-store sales guidance, and expects elevated costs to persist for several months after supply normalizes, but the company characterizes itself as advantaged on supply and remains confident in demand and long-term margins.

Positive Updates

Strong Top-Line Growth and Record Quarterly System Sales
System-wide store sales increased 19%, crossing the $1 billion mark for the first time in a quarter; system-wide same-store sales grew 8%.

Negative Updates

Severe Base Oil Supply Disruption
Closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupted global oil supply chains and constrained Group III base oil (key for full synthetic), an industry-wide issue expected to persist into the medium term.

Company Guidance

Valvoline raised full‑year system‑wide same‑store sales guidance to 7.5%–8% (and nudged the full‑year sales midpoint from $2.05B to $2.10B, +$25M) and narrowed adjusted EBITDA and EPS ranges to $550–$560M and $1.70–$1.75, respectively, noting it had planned ~100 bps of full‑year EBITDA margin compression but now expects roughly half (~50 bps); management also said Q4 pricing actions aim to protect gross profit dollars though the September quarter midpoint would imply 300–400 bps of sequential margin compression driven by product cost. Q3 showed net sales of $545M (+24% YoY), system‑wide store sales +19% (crossing >$1B for the quarter), system‑wide same‑store sales +8%, EBITDA $162M (+25%, margin 29.8%, +30 bps), EPS $0.57 (+21%), gross margin 40% (-50 bps), SG&A 17% (-90 bps), YTD operating cash flow $285M (up $105M), free cash flow $112M (up ~$93M), net leverage 2.8x (down ~10%), and an expected annual interest savings of ~$1.8M from a Term Loan B repricing. Management cautioned finished lubricant costs could be ~60% above March (roughly $5–$7 per oil change) and that supply/cost normalization may take ~4–6 months after the Strait of Hormuz reopens.

Valvoline Risk Analysis

Valvoline disclosed 26 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Valvoline reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Higher RiskSector Avg.Lower RiskFinance & CorporateTech & InnovationLegal & RegulatoryProductionAbility to SellMacro & Political
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added

0 New Risks

Valvoline Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)

Financial Indicators

DE:0V4 against its peers
NameOverall RatingMarket CapP/E RatioROEDividend YieldRevenue GrowthEPS Growth
GPIGPI63Neutral$3.12B8.5313.03%0.80%-3.41%11.11%
Sector *61Neutral$18.38B12.79-2.54%3.03%1.52%-15.83%
PAGPAG61Neutral$13.93B15.5516.40%2.64%6.12%-3.41%
ANAN58Neutral$5.94B8.8231.76%―-1.77%22.76%
DRVNDRVN58Neutral$2.05B12.0022.09%―-10.59%―
LADLAD51Neutral$6.48B8.8712.12%0.77%1.46%0.70%

* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average

Performance Comparison

-40%-20%0%20%40%DE:0V4ANGPILADPAGDRVNDec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26
DE:0V4 and its peers over the selected period
Show on chartTickerCompany NamePriceChange% Change
DE:0V4Valvoline Inc28.801.003.60%
ANAutoNation Inc185.90-7.64-3.95%
GPIGroup 1 Automotive269.79-120.55-30.88%
LADDriveway Vehicle Solutions309.6613.804.67%
PAGPenske Automotive213.2560.5639.66%
DRVNDriven Brands Holdings, Inc.12.72-1.76-12.15%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.