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Coinbase Global (COIN)
NASDAQ:COIN

Coinbase Global (COIN) AI Stock Analysis

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Coinbase Global

(NASDAQ:COIN)

74Outperform
Coinbase Global demonstrates strong financial performance and strategic growth initiatives, particularly in the derivatives market and international expansion. The high valuation and potential market volatility present risks but are balanced by positive earnings call insights and robust cash flow management. Technical indicators suggest mixed momentum, warranting cautious optimism.
Positive Factors
Earnings Growth
Analyst expects Coinbase's earnings per share to grow at a compound annual growth rate of around 38%, significantly outpacing market consensus for future estimates.
Market Position
Coinbase remains the dominant platform with 66% U.S market share, supported by the aspiration to make America the ‘crypto capital of the world’.
S&P 500 Inclusion
Coinbase Global (COIN) reached a major milestone with its addition to the S&P 500, which initially caused COIN shares to jump by 24%.
Negative Factors
Cybersecurity Breach
Coinbase Global disclosed a significant cybersecurity breach and confirmed an ongoing SEC investigation regarding its past user metrics.
Data Security Concerns
COIN revealed that cybercriminals had bribed a small group of overseas customer support contractors to access sensitive customer data.
Remediation Costs
The breach affected less than 1% of COIN’s monthly transacting users, estimated to be approximately 97k customers, and the company expects to incur costs of between $180m and $400m related to remediation efforts and customer reimbursements.

Coinbase Global (COIN) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Coinbase Global Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionCoinbase Global, Inc. is a leading American company in the cryptocurrency industry, providing a secure and user-friendly platform for buying, selling, and managing digital currencies. Founded in 2012, Coinbase operates in the financial technology sector, focusing primarily on enabling access to a wide range of cryptocurrencies for retail and institutional investors. The company's core products and services include a cryptocurrency exchange, a digital wallet, and various tools for merchants and developers to conduct transactions using digital assets.
How the Company Makes MoneyCoinbase Global makes money primarily through transaction fees charged on its cryptocurrency exchange. The company generates revenue by taking a percentage fee on trades conducted by users on its platform, which can vary depending on the size of the transaction and the user's location. In addition to transaction fees, Coinbase earns from subscription and services revenue, which includes services like Coinbase Custody for institutional clients, staking services, and earning interest on certain digital assets. The company also benefits from partnerships with various financial institutions and blockchain projects, contributing to its earnings by providing technological solutions and infrastructure support. Significant market volatility and increased interest in cryptocurrencies can significantly influence Coinbase's revenue, as more trading activity leads to higher transaction fee income.

Coinbase Global Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Trading Volume
Trading Volume
Measures the total value of cryptocurrency transactions on the platform, reflecting user engagement, market activity, and the company's ability to generate transaction fees.
Chart InsightsCoinbase's trading volume has shown a volatile pattern, with a notable recovery in late 2024 and early 2025 after a significant drop in 2023. This resurgence aligns with strategic moves like the Deribit acquisition, boosting its derivatives market share. However, the earnings call highlights ongoing challenges with declining transaction revenue and macroeconomic uncertainties potentially impacting future trading volumes. Despite these hurdles, Coinbase's focus on international expansion and legal victories positions it for potential growth, though investors should remain cautious of market volatility.
Data provided by:Main Street Data

Coinbase Global Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Coinbase Global has shown significant improvement in its financial performance, particularly in revenue growth and profitability margins. The balance sheet reflects a healthy leverage position with a Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 0.44 and strong equity base, though asset reductions may need attention. Cash flow metrics are robust, highlighting the company's ability to generate cash effectively.
Income Statement
75
Positive
Coinbase Global has demonstrated strong revenue growth, with Total Revenue increasing significantly from $3108 million in 2023 to $6564 million in 2024, a growth rate of 111%. The Gross Profit Margin was high at 86.3% in 2024, indicating efficient cost management. However, the company experienced volatility in profitability with a Net Profit Margin of 39.3% in 2024, which is an improvement from previous losses. The EBIT and EBITDA margins also improved positively to 35.1% in 2024.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The Debt-to-Equity Ratio was 0.44 in 2024, reflecting a balanced leverage position. Return on Equity (ROE) was 25.1%, indicating strong profitability relative to shareholder equity. The Equity Ratio was 45.6%, showing a solid equity foundation. However, the company’s Total Assets have decreased compared to prior periods, which could pose a challenge for future growth.
Cash Flow
80
Positive
Coinbase Global showed strong cash flow performance with a Free Cash Flow of $2556 million in 2024, improving from $860 million in 2023. The Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio was 0.99, indicating efficient cash generation relative to earnings. The Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio was also favorable at 0.99, suggesting strong cash flow conversion from profit.
Breakdown
Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
6.56B3.11B3.19B7.84B1.28B
Gross Profit
5.67B2.69B2.56B6.57B1.14B
EBIT
2.31B-161.66M-2.67B3.08B408.95M
EBITDA
3.12B25.21M-2.82B3.14B464.93M
Net Income Common Stockholders
2.58B94.87M-2.62B3.62B322.32M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
9.82B10.29B5.29B7.22B1.11B
Total Assets
22.54B206.98B89.72B21.27B5.86B
Total Debt
4.53B3.06B3.49B3.49B107.78M
Net Debt
-4.22B-2.08B-935.28M-3.63B-954.07M
Total Liabilities
12.27B200.70B84.27B14.89B4.33B
Stockholders Equity
10.28B6.28B5.45B6.38B1.53B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
2.56B859.75M-1.65B10.64B2.99B
Operating Cash Flow
2.56B922.95M-1.59B10.73B3.00B
Investing Cash Flow
-282.38M5.39M-663.82M-1.12B50.82M
Financing Cash Flow
2.83B-811.33M-5.84B3.28B18.80M

Coinbase Global Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price266.46
Price Trends
50DMA
193.34
Positive
100DMA
228.48
Positive
200DMA
225.53
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
16.01
Negative
RSI
70.41
Negative
STOCH
88.38
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For COIN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 266.46 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 211.55, above the 50-day MA of 193.34, and above the 200-day MA of 225.53, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 16.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 70.41 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 88.38 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for COIN.

Coinbase Global Risk Analysis

Coinbase Global disclosed 85 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Coinbase Global reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Coinbase Global Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (64)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
74
Outperform
$67.87B49.9315.83%48.30%5.09%
73
Outperform
$4.60B-63.52%30.08%-196.62%
67
Neutral
$20.74B908.930.38%17.24%
SPSPT
65
Neutral
$1.39B-36.95%17.79%16.49%
64
Neutral
$12.82B9.837.68%17000.34%12.38%-5.56%
62
Neutral
$3.27B24.36-14.71%59.99%-283.24%
55
Neutral
$109.31B-29.68%-6.19%-3736.55%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
COIN
Coinbase Global
263.99
38.80
17.23%
RIOT
Riot Platforms
8.97
-1.99
-18.16%
MSTR
Strategy
413.42
240.70
139.36%
SPT
Sprout Social
23.90
-7.91
-24.87%
GRND
Grindr
23.50
14.13
150.80%
GRAB
Grab
5.08
1.34
35.83%

Coinbase Global Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 08, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 29.04%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 12, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Coinbase demonstrated strong financial performance and significant advancements in derivatives market share and international expansion. The acquisition of Deribit and growth in USDC highlight strategic growth moves. However, challenges remain with declines in transaction revenue and potential macroeconomic impacts on crypto markets.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Financial Performance
Coinbase reported Q1 2025 revenue of $2 billion with $930 million in adjusted EBITDA, indicating resilience in an uncertain macro environment.
Derivatives Market Share Growth
Coinbase drove over $800 billion in global derivatives trading volume, with a significant market share increase driven by its international exchange, resulting in a 60% increase in market share.
Deribit Acquisition
Coinbase announced the acquisition of Deribit for $2.9 billion, making it the number one crypto derivatives platform globally by open interest.
USDC Market Cap and Revenue Growth
USDC hit a market cap all-time high of $60 billion in Q1 2025, with Coinbase's USDC balances increasing by 49% quarter-over-quarter to $12 billion.
International Expansion
Coinbase secured a vast registration in Argentina and registered with India’s financial intelligence unit, FIU, unlocking access to one of the fastest-growing crypto markets.
Subscription and Services Revenue
Subscription and services revenue grew 9% to an all-time high of $698 million.
Legal and Regulatory Wins
The dismissal of the SEC lawsuit against Coinbase marked a major judicial win, and Coinbase saw progress in bipartisan legislation for crypto market structure and stablecoins.
Negative Updates
Transaction Revenue Decline
Transaction revenue was $1.3 billion, down 19% quarter-over-quarter, driven by a decline in consumer and institutional trading volumes.
Macro Uncertainty Impact
Macro uncertainty, including global trade policy, may contribute to softer crypto trading markets and lower asset prices entering Q2.
Spot Trading Volume Decline
Total global spot trading was down 13%, with Coinbase outperforming at a decline of 10%.
Company Guidance
In the Coinbase First Quarter 2025 Earnings Call, the company provided comprehensive guidance and performance metrics. Coinbase reported Q1 revenue of $2 billion and an adjusted EBITDA of $930 million, showcasing resilience in a challenging macro environment. The company achieved significant milestones, including a $60 billion market cap for USDC, a 49% increase in average USDC held in Coinbase products to $12 billion, and a $4 billion stablecoin balance driven by USDC. The acquisition of Deribit, valued at $2.9 billion, positions Coinbase as the leading crypto derivatives platform globally with 75% market share in options and $1 trillion in trading volume. Additionally, Coinbase anticipates Q2 subscription and services revenue to be between $600 million and $680 million, with macro uncertainty potentially impacting crypto trading markets. The company plans to invest in trading incentives, expecting a $30-$40 million impact, and remains focused on strategic growth initiatives, including expanding its product offerings and international presence.

Coinbase Global Corporate Events

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Coinbase Acquires Deribit in Major Cryptocurrency Deal
Positive
May 8, 2025

On May 8, 2025, Coinbase Global, Inc. entered into a Share Purchase Agreement to acquire all outstanding shares of Deribit, a Netherlands-based company, for $700 million in cash and nearly 11 million shares of Coinbase’s Class A common stock. This acquisition, pending regulatory approvals and other conditions, aims to strengthen Coinbase’s market position and expand its offerings in the cryptocurrency space, with significant implications for stakeholders, including a lock-up arrangement for certain Deribit shareholders and a potential $100 million termination fee if regulatory approvals are not obtained by November 8, 2025.

Spark’s Take on COIN Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, COIN is a Outperform.

Coinbase Global shows strong financial performance with significant revenue growth and profitability improvements. The technical indicators show mixed signals, warranting caution. Valuation is reasonable, but the lack of a dividend might deter some investors. The earnings call highlighted positive future prospects, although concerns about declining stablecoin revenue and rising expenses should be monitored.

To see Spark’s full report on COIN stock, click here.

Legal Proceedings
Coinbase Global Reaches Agreement with SEC on Litigation
Neutral
Feb 21, 2025

Coinbase Global faced legal action from the SEC beginning in June 2023, with allegations of operating an unregistered securities exchange and offering unregistered securities. On February 21, 2025, Coinbase announced an agreement in principle with the SEC to dismiss the litigation, pending approval from the SEC’s Commissioners, marking a significant development in its ongoing legal challenges.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.