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Capital One Financial
(NYSE:COF)
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Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
$226.00
▲(4.51% Upside)
Action:Downgraded
Date:09/16/26
COF scores positively on fundamentals, led by strong cash flow and a solid/improving balance-sheet posture, with supportive (not stretched) valuation. The main offsets are weak near-term technical momentum and execution/capital/expense pressures highlighted on the earnings call (CET1 compression, elevated costs, and the Discover loan-growth brownout), despite improving credit trends and on-track integration progress.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation
Strong operating and free cash flow indicate that reported earnings are converting into usable financial resources. This supports loan growth, technology investment, capital needs, and shareholder returns while reducing reliance on external funding over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Volatile profitability and compressed margins
The sharp TTM revenue decline and materially lower margins show that earnings have not yet returned to their stronger historical profile. This limits consistency of returns and makes future profitability more sensitive to credit costs, funding conditions, and operating execution.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong cash generation
Strong operating and free cash flow indicate that reported earnings are converting into usable financial resources. This supports loan growth, technology investment, capital needs, and shareholder returns while reducing reliance on external funding over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Capital One Financial Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Breaks down revenue across different business segments, revealing which areas are driving growth and profitability, and highlighting strategic focus areas for the company.
Breaks down revenue across different business segments, revealing which areas are driving growth and profitability, and highlighting strategic focus areas for the company.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyCapital One Financial (COF) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$127.79B
Dividend Yield1.55%
Average Volume (3M)2.93M
Price to Earnings (P/E)12.8
Beta (1Y)1.46
Revenue Growth39.21%
EPS Growth-76.14%
CountryUS
Employees78,400
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryFinancial - Credit Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)16.16
Shares Outstanding613,484,860
10 Day Avg. Volume2,838,066
30 Day Avg. Volume2,934,536
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.92
Price to Book (P/B)1.15
Price to Sales (P/S)1.89
P/FCF Ratio5.01
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$258.83Price Target Upside19.70% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering19
EPS Forecast (FY)20.44
Revenue Forecast (FY)$63.95B
Capital One Financial Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Capital One Financial Corporation, identified by its ticker COF, operates as a prominent financial services holding company. It oversees essential subsidiaries such as Capital One Bank (USA), National Association, and Capital One, National Associa...
How the Company Makes Money
Capital One makes money primarily through (1) net interest income and (2) non-interest income derived from its banking and card businesses.
1) Net interest income (spread-based earnings)
- Credit card interest: A major driver of revenue is intere...
Capital One Financial Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 21, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 22, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Overall the call conveyed solid top-line growth, improving credit metrics, a healthy liquidity and funding posture, and clear progress on Discover integration and synergy realization. Management acknowledged near-term headwinds — most notably a temporary Discover loan "brownout," margin on capital due to buybacks and the Brex impact, elevated expenses tied to integration, technology and marketing, and sizable net charge-offs in the quarter. Taken together the positives (robust revenue growth, improving credit/delinquency trends, high NIM, strong liquidity ratios, and on-track synergy delivery) outweigh the medium-term capital and expense pressures.Positive Updates
Reported and Adjusted EPS
GAAP earnings of $3.0 billion or $4.73 per diluted common share; adjusted EPS (net of acquisition-related items) of $5.81 for the quarter.
Negative Updates
Capital Ratio Compression
Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio ended the quarter at 13.7%, down 70 basis points QoQ. Drivers included $2.7 billion of share repurchases, an estimated ~40-bp impact from the Brex transaction, and higher risk-weighted assets that more than offset net income.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Reported and Adjusted EPS
GAAP earnings of $3.0 billion or $4.73 per diluted common share; adjusted EPS (net of acquisition-related items) of $5.81 for the quarter.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reiterated that earnings power remains consistent with the original Discover thesis while providing near‑term metrics and timing: Q2 GAAP earnings $3.0B ($4.73 diluted), adjusted EPS $5.81; revenue +4% Q/Q, noninterest expense +7% Q/Q, pre‑provision earnings +1% (flat on an adjusted basis); provision down $1.1B (‑27%) to $3.0B and an allowance release of $662M to an allowance balance of $23B with total portfolio coverage 5.02% (‑26 bps); segment coverage—domestic card 6.99% (‑41 bps) with a 4.71% charge‑off rate (‑39 bps Q/Q) and 3.39% delinquency (‑31 bps Q/Q), consumer banking allowance build $115M and coverage 2.39% (+3 bps); liquidity reserves ~$144B (‑$21B), ending cash ~$55B (‑$22B), preliminary LCR 165% and NSFR 136%; NIM 8.01% (+14 bps Q/Q) with an expected Q3 NIM catch‑up from lower average cash and an extra day (+9 bps tailwind in back half); CET1 13.7% (‑70 bps Q/Q) after $2.7B buybacks and ~40 bps Brex impact; integration update—14 of 24 months complete, full quarterly debit revenue synergies now in the run‑rate, ~1/3 of operating expense synergies realized and the full $2.5B of synergies on track (remaining opex synergies targeted by H2 2027), and tech conversion milestones for Discover (50% of originations on Capital One tech, new originations fully on by end‑Q3; back‑book waves in Jul/Oct/Jan with full back‑book on platform by Q1).Capital One Financial Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
86
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 78.61B | 69.25B | 53.94B | 49.48B | 38.37B | 32.03B |
| Gross Profit | 52.04B | 32.78B | 27.40B | 26.36B | 28.40B | 32.38B |
| EBITDA | 21.98B | 7.54B | 9.15B | 9.27B | 12.45B | 19.29B |
| Net Income | 10.52B | 2.45B | 4.75B | 4.89B | 7.36B | 12.39B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 673.84B | 669.01B | 490.14B | 478.46B | 455.25B | 432.38B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 56.74B | 61.71B | 47.08B | 122.41B | 107.78B | 117.01B |
| Total Debt | 45.37B | 51.00B | 45.55B | 49.86B | 48.75B | 43.09B |
| Total Liabilities | 560.04B | 555.39B | 429.36B | 420.38B | 402.67B | 371.35B |
| Stockholders Equity | 113.79B | 113.62B | 60.78B | 58.09B | 52.58B | 61.03B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 32.20B | 26.14B | 16.95B | 19.61B | 12.88B | 11.61B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 31.45B | 27.72B | 18.16B | 20.57B | 13.81B | 12.31B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -34.23B | -444.00M | -26.41B | -21.92B | -29.74B | -31.50B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 3.96B | -8.85B | 8.17B | 13.84B | 25.13B | 474.00M |
Capital One Financial Technical Analysis
Neutral
216.24
Price Trends
211.99
Negative
201.01
Positive
206.24
Positive
Market Momentum
-1.48
Positive
40.42
Neutral
16.33
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For COF, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 216.24 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 214.55, above the 50-day MA of 211.99, and above the 200-day MA of 206.24, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.48 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 40.42 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 16.33 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for COF.
Capital One Financial Risk Analysis
Capital One Financial disclosed 34 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Capital One Financial reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Capital One Financial Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $12.80B | 9.78 | 9.42% | 2.86% | 1.97% | 174.08% | |
73 Outperform | $24.72B | 7.70 | 20.94% | 1.63% | -2.40% | 18.50% | |
70 Outperform | $219.27B | 19.88 | 34.12% | 1.08% | 9.41% | 15.72% | |
69 Neutral | $127.79B | 12.79 | 9.28% | 1.55% | 39.21% | -76.14% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
67 Neutral | $7.22B | 9.49 | 23.07% | 6.65% | 6.93% | 19.96% | |
65 Neutral | $22.37B | 34.61 | 6.18% | ― | 34.08% | -0.29% |
* Financial Sector Average
COF
Capital One Financial
206.85
-14.13
-6.39%
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324.43
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0.26%
ALLY
Ally Financial
41.58
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SYF
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76.06
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3.75%
OMF
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61.53
5.16
9.16%
SOFI
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17.07
-10.35
-37.75%
Capital One Financial Corporate Events
Business Operations and Strategy
Capital One to Present at Barclays Financial Conference
Positive
Sep 15, 2026
Capital One Financial Corporation announced it will present at the Barclays 24th Annual Global Financial Services Conference in New York on Wednesday, September 16, 2026, at 12:00 p.m. ET. The company will provide a live audio webcast of its prese...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Capital One Financial Completes €1.5 Billion Senior Notes Offering
Positive
Sep 15, 2026
On September 15, 2026, Capital One Financial Corporation completed a €1.5 billion public offering of fixed-to-floating rate senior notes in two tranches maturing in 2032 and 2037, carrying coupons of 4.326% and 4.832%, respectively. The note...
Financial Disclosures
Capital One Reports August Credit Card and Auto Metrics
Neutral
Sep 15, 2026
Capital One reported monthly charge-off and delinquency metrics for loans held for investment as of and for the month ended August 31, 2026, highlighting performance in its domestic credit card and auto loan businesses. The release detailed net ch...
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Capital One Retires Series M Preferred, Streamlines Capital Structure
Positive
Sep 1, 2026
On September 1, 2026, Capital One Financial Corporation redeemed all outstanding shares of its Fixed Rate Reset Non-Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock, Series M, in line with the terms governing that security. On the same date, the company filed...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividends
Capital One to Redeem Series M Preferred Stock
Neutral
Aug 20, 2026
On Aug. 20, 2026, Capital One announced plans to redeem all 1,000,000 outstanding shares of its Fixed Rate Reset Non-Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock, Series M, at $1,000 per share. The redemption, scheduled for Sept. 1, 2026, affects holders ...
Financial Disclosures
Capital One Reports June 2026 Credit Portfolio Metrics
Neutral
Jul 21, 2026
For the month ended June 30, 2026, Capital One reported domestic credit card loans held for investment averaging $256.2 billion, with period-end balances of $259.0 billion and net charge-offs of $934 million, translating to an annualized net charg...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.