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American Express
(NYSE:AXP)
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Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:
$332.00
â–¼(-1.18% Downside)
Action:Upgraded
Date:08/17/26
AXP scores well primarily on strong operating momentum and constructive guidance from the latest earnings call, supported by generally solid profitability and cash generation. The overall score is tempered by leverage-related balance-sheet risk and a near-term TTM slowdown, while technicals are neutral and valuation looks fair rather than clearly discounted.
Positive Factors
Durable Card-Fee Growth
Sustained double-digit card-fee growth demonstrates strong customer retention, premium product demand, and pricing power within American Express’s closed-loop model. This recurring revenue stream can support durable top-line expansion and reduce reliance on transaction volumes alone over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Regulatory Compliance Penalty
The regulatory orders and substantial civil penalty highlight weaknesses in aspects of American Express’s financial-crimes compliance program. Although management says the penalty was partly reserved and does not change 2026 or 2027 guidance, remediation requirements can still absorb management attention and resources.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Durable Card-Fee Growth
Sustained double-digit card-fee growth demonstrates strong customer retention, premium product demand, and pricing power within American Express’s closed-loop model. This recurring revenue stream can support durable top-line expansion and reduce reliance on transaction volumes alone over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
American Express Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Breaks down revenue by business segments, highlighting which areas are driving growth and profitability for American Express.
Breaks down revenue by business segments, highlighting which areas are driving growth and profitability for American Express.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyAmerican Express (AXP) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$210.38B
Dividend Yield1.18%
Average Volume (3M)3.10M
Price to Earnings (P/E)18.8
Beta (1Y)1.24
Revenue Growth9.41%
EPS Growth15.72%
CountryUS
Employees76,800
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryFinancial - Credit Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)16.49
Shares Outstanding675,309,800
10 Day Avg. Volume3,403,374
30 Day Avg. Volume3,097,879
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio2.46
Price to Book (P/B)7.68
Price to Sales (P/S)3.20
P/FCF Ratio16.07
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.16
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.90
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.43
Enterprise Value/Ebitda9.85
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$372.47Price Target Upside10.87% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering22
EPS Forecast (FY)17.68
Revenue Forecast (FY)$79.47B
American Express Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Operating globally, American Express Company and its affiliated entities deliver a comprehensive suite of charge and credit payment card solutions, alongside a variety of travel-related offerings. Its business structure is organized into three pri...
How the Company Makes Money
American Express generates revenue mainly through a combination of (1) discount (merchant) revenue, (2) net card fees, (3) net interest income, and (4) other fees and service revenue.
1) Discount (merchant) revenue: When a cardmember uses an Amer...
American Express Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 24, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 23, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong operating momentum: double-digit revenue growth, robust spend and card fee expansion, excellent credit metrics, international strength, healthy deposit growth, and high ROE. Management raised revenue guidance and emphasized reinvesting incremental performance into customer acquisition, technology and strategic partnerships (e.g., TheFork). Near-term headwinds include a higher VCE ratio, the staggered sale of small business co-brand portfolios that will depress spend and NII growth until lapped, and elevated marketing/integration spending that keeps EPS guidance unchanged. Overall, positives around growth, credit quality and capital returns materially outweigh the manageable, largely-transitory challenges.Positive Updates
Strong Quarterly Revenue and EPS
Revenue grew 10% year-over-year in Q2 2026 and the company raised full-year revenue guidance to 10%. Reported EPS for the quarter was $4.53 and Christophe noted EPS was up ~11% year-over-year for the quarter; year-to-date the company delivered ~11% revenue growth and ~14% EPS growth.
Negative Updates
Higher Variable Costs to Cardholder Engagement (VCE)
VCE to revenue ratio stepped up to 44.6% in Q2 (above prior expectations) due to stronger-than-expected cardholder spending and the Platinum refresh; management now expects full-year VCE between 44% and 45%.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Quarterly Revenue and EPS
Revenue grew 10% year-over-year in Q2 2026 and the company raised full-year revenue guidance to 10%. Reported EPS for the quarter was $4.53 and Christophe noted EPS was up ~11% year-over-year for the quarter; year-to-date the company delivered ~11% revenue growth and ~14% EPS growth.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
American Express raised its 2026 revenue-growth guidance to 10% while maintaining full‑year EPS guidance of $17.30–$17.90; management expects card‑fee growth to accelerate in Q3 and to exit the year in the high‑teens, marketing to be up ~10% year‑over‑year in H2, operating expenses to grow in the mid‑single digits for the full year, and the variable card‑member expense (VCE) ratio to finish the year between 44%–45%. They flagged headwinds from the staggered sale/transfers of two small‑business co‑brand portfolios (a ~1 percentage‑point quarterly hit to spend growth starting in Q4, roughly a 2.5‑pp drag to NII until lapped, and about a 1‑pp hit to total revenue), expect credit metrics to remain generally stable, and noted the guidance excludes the potential H2 proceeds/impact from the planned sale of their Global Business Travel equity stake.American Express Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
66
Positive
Cash Flow
70
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 84.07B | 80.46B | 74.20B | 67.36B | 55.63B | 44.43B |
| Gross Profit | 70.92B | 66.97B | 60.76B | 55.59B | 50.68B | 44.57B |
| EBITDA | 24.72B | 15.57B | 14.57B | 12.16B | 11.21B | 12.38B |
| Net Income | 11.45B | 10.83B | 10.13B | 8.37B | 7.51B | 8.06B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 308.20B | 300.05B | 271.46B | 261.11B | 228.35B | 188.55B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 45.56B | 48.53B | 41.74B | 48.65B | 38.39B | 24.50B |
| Total Debt | 59.05B | 57.76B | 51.09B | 49.16B | 43.92B | 40.92B |
| Total Liabilities | 273.92B | 266.58B | 241.20B | 233.05B | 203.64B | 166.37B |
| Stockholders Equity | 34.28B | 33.47B | 30.26B | 28.06B | 24.71B | 22.18B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 15.05B | 16.00B | 12.14B | 17.00B | 19.22B | 13.10B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 18.48B | 18.43B | 14.05B | 18.56B | 21.08B | 14.64B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -28.39B | -22.89B | -24.40B | -24.43B | -33.69B | -10.53B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -3.04B | 11.21B | 4.44B | 18.38B | 24.51B | -14.93B |
American Express Technical Analysis
Neutral
335.95
Price Trends
322.56
Negative
327.64
Negative
327.77
Negative
Market Momentum
-3.98
Negative
47.09
Neutral
86.57
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AXP, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 335.95 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 306.27, above the 50-day MA of 322.56, and above the 200-day MA of 327.77, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -3.98 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 47.09 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 86.57 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for AXP.
American Express Risk Analysis
American Express disclosed 34 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. American Express reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
American Express Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
82 Outperform | $521.30B | 33.21 | 232.46% | 0.58% | 16.15% | 22.59% | |
82 Outperform | $726.79B | 33.65 | 61.26% | 0.68% | 14.39% | 14.71% | |
70 Outperform | $210.38B | 18.79 | 34.12% | 1.18% | 9.41% | 15.72% | |
69 Neutral | $123.40B | 12.26 | 9.28% | 1.62% | 37.99% | 722.44% | |
69 Neutral | $47.95B | 10.54 | 24.42% | 1.00% | 6.32% | 12.89% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
65 Neutral | $21.71B | -20.99 | -4.14% | 1.22% | 7.48% | -43.97% |
* Financial Sector Average
AXP
American Express
309.84
-19.30
-5.86%
COF
Capital One Financial
198.07
-12.85
-6.09%
GPN
Global Payments
81.88
-3.47
-4.07%
MA
Mastercard
604.80
40.51
7.18%
V
Visa
396.06
50.44
14.60%
PYPL
PayPal Holdings
56.17
-12.22
-17.86%
American Express Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
American Express Issues New Series E Preferred Shares
Positive
Aug 12, 2026
On August 11, 2026, American Express filed a Certificate of Amendment in New York to establish the terms of a new Series E 6.450% fixed rate reset noncumulative preferred share class, with each share carrying a $1,000,000 liquidation preference an...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
American Express Plans Offering of New Series E Preferred
Neutral
Aug 5, 2026
On August 5, 2026, American Express announced a proposed public offering of depositary shares, each representing a 1/1,000th interest in a new series of Fixed Rate Reset Noncumulative Preferred Shares, Series E. The company plans to use the net pr...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
American Express Raises 2026 Outlook on Strong Q2
Positive
Jul 24, 2026
American Express reported on July 24, 2026, that second-quarter 2026 revenue rose 10% year over year to $19.6 billion, driven by higher card member spending, growth in card balances and strong fee income, while net income increased to $3.1 billion...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.