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American Express
(NYSE:AXP)
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Rating:75Outperform
Price Target:
$392.00
▲(18.18% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/08/26
The score is led by strong financial quality (profitability/ROE and solid earnings quality) and a positive earnings call with reaffirmed growth/EPS guidance. Offsetting the outlook are mixed technicals (below longer-term moving averages) and some fundamental watch items including recent margin/FCF softness and elevated leverage; valuation is reasonable but the dividend yield is modest.
Positive Factors
Closed‑loop payments model & diversified revenue
American Express’s closed‑loop network and multi‑stream revenue model (merchant discount, card fees, interest, FX/ancillary services) create durable cross‑side network effects and diversified cash flows. That mix supports resilient revenue and margins as spending patterns evolve and underpins long‑term customer retention and pricing power.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage and funding sensitivity
Higher leverage versus historical norms increases sensitivity to funding costs and credit cycles for a card‑centric lender. A reliance on capital markets (note issuances) and elevated debt metrics can compress flexibility if rates rise or market funding narrows, making capital management and stress buffers more critical over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Closed‑loop payments model & diversified revenue
American Express’s closed‑loop network and multi‑stream revenue model (merchant discount, card fees, interest, FX/ancillary services) create durable cross‑side network effects and diversified cash flows. That mix supports resilient revenue and margins as spending patterns evolve and underpins long‑term customer retention and pricing power.
Read all positive factors
American Express Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Breaks down revenue by business segments, highlighting which areas are driving growth and profitability for American Express.
Breaks down revenue by business segments, highlighting which areas are driving growth and profitability for American Express.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyAmerican Express (AXP) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$237.45B
Dividend Yield0.84%
Average Volume (3M)3.12M
Price to Earnings (P/E)21.7
Beta (1Y)1.26
Revenue Growth9.41%
EPS Growth12.00%
CountryUS
Employees75,100
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryFinancial - Credit Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)16.04
Shares Outstanding682,326,400
10 Day Avg. Volume3,002,461
30 Day Avg. Volume3,119,745
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio2.46
Price to Book (P/B)7.68
Price to Sales (P/S)3.20
P/FCF Ratio16.07
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.90
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.47
Enterprise Value/Ebitda12.66
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$367.43Price Target Upside10.77% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering22
EPS Forecast (FY)17.71
Revenue Forecast (FY)$79.47B
American Express Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Operating globally, American Express Company and its affiliated entities deliver a comprehensive suite of charge and credit payment card solutions, alongside a variety of travel-related offerings. Its business structure is organized into three pri...
How the Company Makes Money
American Express primarily makes money through a combination of payments-network economics and lending-related income tied to its cardmember relationships. A major revenue stream is merchant-related revenue: when a cardmember uses an American Expr...
American Express Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 23, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 24, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented predominantly positive operational and financial momentum: double-digit revenue growth (11%), meaningful EPS upside (+18% YoY), robust card member spending and strong international performance, along with continued excellent credit metrics and healthy capital returns. Management is proactively reinvesting Q1 outperformance into marketing and technology (including AI initiatives and a sizable commercial product rollout), which raises near-term expense ratios but is positioned to support sustainable long-term growth. The few negatives (temporary airline softness from geopolitical events, modest near-term drag from held-for-sale co-brand portfolios, and the reinvestment-driven expense step-up) were acknowledged as manageable by management and not expected to materially impair results this year.Positive Updates
Strong Top-Line and Earnings Growth
Revenue grew 11% (10% FX-adjusted) in Q1 and diluted EPS was $4.28, up 18% year-over-year. Management reaffirmed full-year 2026 guidance of 9%–10% revenue growth and EPS of $17.30–$17.90.
Negative Updates
Airline Spending Softness and Travel Disruption
Airline spending growth slowed late in March into April (airline spend noted at +8% earlier), driven by travel disruptions from the Middle East conflict and a spike in refund volumes. Management indicated the impact was visible but not material to overall billed business.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Top-Line and Earnings Growth
Revenue grew 11% (10% FX-adjusted) in Q1 and diluted EPS was $4.28, up 18% year-over-year. Management reaffirmed full-year 2026 guidance of 9%–10% revenue growth and EPS of $17.30–$17.90.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
American Express reaffirmed its full‑year 2026 guidance—revenue growth of 9–10% and EPS of $17.30–$17.90—after a strong Q1 (revenue +11% / +10% FX‑adjusted; card member spending +10% / +9% FX‑adjusted; EPS $4.28, +18% YoY). Management said it will increase marketing and technology investments while maintaining capital returns (Q1 capital returned $2.3B including $0.7B dividends and $1.7B buybacks) and a strong ROE (35% this quarter). Key financials cited alongside the guidance include Q1 NII +12% FX‑adjusted vs. total balances +7% FX‑adjusted, net card fees +16% FX‑adjusted, provision expense $1.3B with a $24M reserve release, high‑yield savings/CD balances +9% YoY, Q1 marketing $1.5B (flat YoY) but marketing now expected to grow mid‑single digits for the year, and a projected full‑year VCE‑to‑revenue ratio around 44% (Q1 44.7%); management noted only a low single‑digit near‑term drag to SME spend from the co‑brand exits and does not expect a material change to its capital management approach.American Express Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
84
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
73
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 82.41B | 80.46B | 74.20B | 67.36B | 55.63B | 44.43B |
| Gross Profit | 68.81B | 66.97B | 60.76B | 55.59B | 50.68B | 44.57B |
| EBITDA | 18.88B | 15.57B | 14.57B | 12.16B | 11.21B | 12.38B |
| Net Income | 11.22B | 10.83B | 10.13B | 8.37B | 7.51B | 8.06B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 308.89B | 300.05B | 271.46B | 261.11B | 228.35B | 188.55B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 54.05B | 48.53B | 41.74B | 48.65B | 38.39B | 24.50B |
| Total Debt | 60.44B | 57.76B | 51.09B | 49.16B | 43.92B | 40.92B |
| Total Liabilities | 274.90B | 266.58B | 241.20B | 233.05B | 203.64B | 166.37B |
| Stockholders Equity | 33.99B | 33.47B | 30.26B | 28.06B | 24.71B | 22.18B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 14.32B | 16.00B | 12.14B | 17.00B | 19.22B | 13.10B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 17.47B | 18.43B | 14.05B | 18.56B | 21.08B | 14.64B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -26.21B | -22.89B | -24.40B | -24.43B | -33.69B | -10.53B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 9.54B | 11.21B | 4.44B | 18.38B | 24.51B | -14.93B |
American Express Technical Analysis
Positive
331.69
Price Trends
321.39
Positive
319.00
Positive
336.90
Positive
Market Momentum
7.50
Negative
69.46
Neutral
45.41
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AXP, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 331.69 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 329.74, above the 50-day MA of 321.39, and below the 200-day MA of 336.90, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 7.50 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 69.46 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 45.41 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AXP.
American Express Risk Analysis
American Express disclosed 34 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. American Express reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
American Express Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
83 Outperform | $661.48B | 30.56 | 58.90% | 0.69% | 14.37% | 13.59% | |
77 Outperform | $461.62B | 30.20 | 206.12% | 0.54% | 17.06% | 21.18% | |
77 Outperform | $25.82B | 7.87 | 21.41% | 1.34% | -3.18% | 32.55% | |
75 Outperform | $237.45B | 21.71 | 33.95% | 0.84% | 9.41% | 12.00% | |
70 Outperform | $126.17B | 71.87 | 2.86% | 1.05% | 39.21% | -76.14% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
66 Neutral | $38.87B | 8.21 | 25.08% | ― | 6.97% | 19.31% |
* Financial Sector Average
AXP
American Express
348.00
22.45
6.90%
COF
Capital One Financial
204.82
-15.49
-7.03%
MA
Mastercard
522.44
-43.46
-7.68%
V
Visa
351.08
-4.97
-1.40%
SYF
Synchrony Financial
76.77
7.76
11.25%
PYPL
PayPal Holdings
44.07
-31.86
-41.96%
American Express Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
American Express Shareholders Reaffirm Board, Pay and Auditor
Positive
May 7, 2026
At its Annual Meeting of Shareholders held on May 5, 2026, American Express reported that all 13 director nominees were elected with majority support, including Chairman and CEO Stephen J. Squeri, underscoring broad investor backing for the curren...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
American Express Issues New Fixed-to-Floating Rate Notes
Positive
May 4, 2026
American Express Company, a major player in global payments and financial services, continues to rely on capital markets funding through senior unsecured debt to support its lending and card operations. Its strategy includes issuing fixed and floa...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
American Express to Divest Stake in Global Business Travel
Positive
May 4, 2026
On May 4, 2026, American Express said it will divest its roughly 30% stake in Global Business Travel Group, Inc. as part of Long Lake and General Catalyst’s agreement to acquire GBTG, a move that underscores its focus on capital efficiency w...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
American Express Posts Strong Q1 2026 Results, Reaffirms Guidance
Positive
Apr 23, 2026
On April 23, 2026, American Express reported first-quarter 2026 net income of $3.0 billion, up from $2.6 billion a year earlier, with revenue rising 11% to $18.9 billion and EPS climbing 18% to $4.28. Card Member spending grew 10% (9% FX-adjusted)...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
American Express Reports Stable Credit Quality, Moderate Write-Offs
Positive
Apr 15, 2026
For the three months ended March 31, 2026, American Express reported stable credit quality in its U.S. Consumer and U.S. Small Business card member loans held for investment, with total loans of $129.7 billion and 30‑day delinquency rates st...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.