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Chipotle
(NYSE:CMG)
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Rating:73Outperform
Price Target:
$37.00
▼(-1.15% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/30/26
CMG scores well primarily on strong financial performance (growth and cash generation) and a supportive earnings update (raised comp outlook, digital/throughput initiatives, unit growth and buybacks). The score is held back by margin pressure and cost inflation noted on the call, premium valuation (P/E 30.761), and mixed technicals with the stock still below its 200-day moving average.
Positive Factors
Revenue growth and brand demand
Sustained revenue expansion and positive comparable sales indicate continued customer demand, pricing power and successful restaurant development. The combination supports durable growth even as the company operates in a competitive, discretionary category.
Negative Factors
Restaurant margin compression
Lower restaurant-level margins show that food, freight and labor inflation are absorbing the benefit of sales growth and pricing. If these costs persist, they could constrain earnings growth and reduce the economic payoff from new units.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue growth and brand demand
Sustained revenue expansion and positive comparable sales indicate continued customer demand, pricing power and successful restaurant development. The combination supports durable growth even as the company operates in a competitive, discretionary category.
Read all positive factors
Chipotle Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Restaurants
Tracks the number of Chipotle locations, indicating expansion strategy and market penetration, which are key to revenue growth and brand presence.
Tracks the number of Chipotle locations, indicating expansion strategy and market penetration, which are key to revenue growth and brand presence.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyChipotle (CMG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$47.36B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)18.41M
Price to Earnings (P/E)34.3
Beta (1Y)0.92
Revenue Growth7.31%
EPS Growth-4.37%
CountryUS
Employees130,301
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryRestaurants
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.09
Shares Outstanding1,265,418,000
10 Day Avg. Volume17,804,810
30 Day Avg. Volume18,407,638
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio12.01
Price to Book (P/B)17.48
Price to Sales (P/S)4.15
P/FCF Ratio34.18
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$44.78Price Target Upside19.64% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering24
EPS Forecast (FY)1.15
Revenue Forecast (FY)$13.02B
Chipotle Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc., along with its affiliated companies, oversees the ownership and daily running of Chipotle Mexican Grill eateries. By February 15, 2022, its global presence included roughly 3,000 restaurant locations spread across the...
How the Company Makes Money
Chipotle makes money primarily by selling food and beverages directly to customers at company-owned restaurants. The largest revenue stream is in-restaurant and digital sales of entrees (e.g., burritos, bowls, tacos, salads) and add-ons (e.g., gua...
Chipotle Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 29, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call portrayed clear operational and top-line momentum — 9.3% revenue growth, comp sales and transaction gains, strong digital penetration, successful LTOs, HEEP-driven throughput improvements, and active unit growth and buybacks. Offsetting this progress were margin compression (restaurant-level margin down ~220 bps), rising input and labor costs, a short-term softening exacerbated by an industry cyclospora issue (~200 bps headwind), flat adjusted EPS, and a material in-store loyalty adoption gap. Management raised full-year comp guidance to low single-digits but cautioned about tougher Q3 comps and near-term uncertainty. Overall, positive initiatives and growth drivers are showing traction, but cost pressure and near-term headwinds restrain performance.Positive Updates
Revenue and Comparable Sales Growth
Revenue grew 9.3% year-over-year to $3.3 billion in Q2 2026, driven by comparable restaurant sales growth of 2.2% (transaction comp +1.0%).
Negative Updates
Restaurant-Level Margin Compression
Restaurant-level margin was 25.2%, down approximately 220 basis points year-over-year, reflecting cost pressures despite sales growth.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue and Comparable Sales Growth
Revenue grew 9.3% year-over-year to $3.3 billion in Q2 2026, driven by comparable restaurant sales growth of 2.2% (transaction comp +1.0%).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Guidance highlighted a raise to full‑year comparable sales growth in the low single‑digit range with Q3 comps guided to about +1% (assuming a roughly 200‑basis‑point cyclospora‑related headwind); pricing was ~1.6% in Q2, is expected to increase to the mid‑2% range in Q3 and land near the high end of the prior 1%–2% full‑year range; cost of sales was 29.7% in Q2 (up ~80 bps) and is expected just under 30% in Q3 with low‑single‑digit inflation; restaurant‑level margin was 25.2% in Q2 (down 220 bps) and adjusted diluted EPS was $0.33 (flat); digital sales were $1.3B (38.3% of sales); labor was 25% in Q2 (up ~30 bps) and is expected in the mid‑25% range in Q3 with wage inflation in the low single digits; other operating costs were 14.9% (up ~90 bps) and should be mid‑15% in Q3, marketing ~3% (low‑3% expected Q3 and full year), G&A was $176M non‑GAAP (Q2) with Q3 non‑GAAP expected around $180M, depreciation ~3% of sales, an effective tax rate guide of 24%–26% for 2026, ending cash of $800M, Q2 buybacks of $631M (YTD >$1.3B), board authorization for an additional $1.3B (≈$1.7B remaining), and operational/expansion notes including 101 openings in the quarter, cadence of ~350 openings this year (~80% Chipotlanes), new‑unit productivity ~80%, year‑2 cash‑on‑cash ≈60%, and HEEP rollout in >1,000 restaurants (2,000 expected by year‑end) with HEEP restaurants outperforming by ~2–3 entrees in peak 15.Chipotle Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
88
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
Cash Flow
84
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 12.42B | 11.93B | 11.31B | 9.87B | 8.63B | 7.55B |
| Gross Profit | 3.00B | 3.03B | 3.02B | 2.59B | 2.06B | 1.71B |
| EBITDA | 2.27B | 2.37B | 2.32B | 1.95B | 1.50B | 1.10B |
| Net Income | 1.42B | 1.54B | 1.53B | 1.23B | 899.10M | 652.98M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 8.86B | 8.99B | 9.20B | 8.04B | 6.93B | 6.65B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 677.86M | 1.05B | 1.42B | 1.30B | 899.14M | 1.08B |
| Total Debt | 5.42B | 9.85B | 4.54B | 4.05B | 3.73B | 3.52B |
| Total Liabilities | 6.66B | 6.16B | 5.55B | 4.98B | 4.56B | 4.36B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.20B | 2.83B | 3.66B | 3.06B | 2.37B | 2.30B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.57B | 1.45B | 1.51B | 1.22B | 844.01M | 839.61M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.33B | 2.11B | 2.11B | 1.78B | 1.32B | 1.28B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -96.50M | -35.08M | -837.53M | -946.01M | -830.03M | -522.04M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -2.84B | -2.47B | -1.07B | -660.65M | -929.40M | -548.61M |
Chipotle Technical Analysis
Positive
37.43
Price Trends
34.04
Positive
33.39
Positive
34.61
Positive
Market Momentum
0.84
Negative
62.12
Neutral
89.42
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CMG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 37.43 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 34.88, above the 50-day MA of 34.04, and above the 200-day MA of 34.61, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.84 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 62.12 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 89.42 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CMG.
Chipotle Risk Analysis
Chipotle disclosed 23 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Chipotle reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Chipotle Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
83 Outperform | $25.03B | 20.93 | 56.01% | 3.12% | 9.39% | 17.16% | |
73 Outperform | $47.36B | 34.27 | 53.26% | ― | 7.31% | -4.37% | |
69 Neutral | $42.65B | 19.28 | -30.35% | 1.96% | 10.28% | 56.85% | |
68 Neutral | $37.07B | 19.33 | 34.86% | 3.50% | 6.51% | 40.57% | |
64 Neutral | $189.72B | 21.63 | -561.20% | 2.78% | 6.30% | 5.37% | |
62 Neutral | $120.57B | 62.35 | -24.31% | 2.39% | 4.51% | -24.97% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
CMG
Chipotle
37.22
-5.19
-12.24%
DRI
Darden Restaurants
211.13
10.78
5.38%
MCD
McDonald's
260.06
-44.76
-14.68%
SBUX
Starbucks
107.26
21.43
24.97%
YUM
Yum! Brands
150.75
8.03
5.62%
QSR
Restaurant Brands International
78.07
17.27
28.41%
Chipotle Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Chipotle Addresses Salmonella Probe, Affirms Safety Measures
Neutral
Aug 5, 2026
Chipotle reported that public health authorities, including the FDA and Minnesota Department of Health, were investigating a salmonella outbreak in the broader supply chain affecting several food service retailers, but Minnesota officials confirme...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackFinancial Disclosures
Chipotle Q2 Results Highlight Growth and Share Buybacks
Positive
Jul 29, 2026
Chipotle reported second-quarter 2026 results on July 29, highlighting 9.3% year-over-year revenue growth to $3.3 billion and a 2.2% increase in comparable restaurant sales, driven mainly by new openings and modest check and transaction gains. Dig...
Executive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Chipotle strengthens audit committee independence with new director
Positive
Jul 8, 2026
On July 7, 2026, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. appointed independent director Albert Baldocchi to its Board’s Audit and Risk Committee, replacing Scott Maw in order to comply with Securities and Exchange Commission Rule 10A-3 and New York Sto...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.