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Julius Baer Group Ltd
(BAER)
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Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:
CHF81.00
▲(6.49% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:09/30/26
The score is primarily held back by financial quality concerns—especially the sharp 2025 cash-flow deterioration and increased leverage—despite solid profitability. Offsetting this, the earnings call pointed to strong current operating results and capital strength, while valuation is reasonable and technicals are mildly constructive but not strongly confirmed due to negative MACD.
Positive Factors
Scale and growth
Record assets under management and higher client assets strengthen Julius Baer’s recurring fee base and reinforce its position in private banking. Continued asset growth also creates operating leverage, supports adviser productivity, and provides a durable platform for future client-driven revenue.
Negative Factors
Weak cash conversion
The sharp deterioration in operating and free cash flow indicates that reported profitability is not consistently translating into cash generation. Persistent volatility could constrain internally funded investment, dividends, and balance-sheet flexibility, making earnings quality less dependable over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Scale and growth
Record assets under management and higher client assets strengthen Julius Baer’s recurring fee base and reinforce its position in private banking. Continued asset growth also creates operating leverage, supports adviser productivity, and provides a durable platform for future client-driven revenue.
Read all positive factors
Julius Baer Group Ltd (BAER) vs. iShares MSCI Switzerland ETF (EWL)
Market Cap
CHF14.51B
Dividend Yield3.67%
Average Volume (3M)511.75K
Price to Earnings (P/E)12.8
Beta (1Y)1.03
Revenue Growth-0.29%
EPS Growth31.63%
CountryCH
Employees7,675
SectorGeneral
Sector StrengthN/A
IndustryAsset Management
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)5.55
Shares Outstanding206,001,790
10 Day Avg. Volume655,815
30 Day Avg. Volume511,747
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.67
Price to Book (P/B)1.77
Price to Sales (P/S)2.17
P/FCF Ratio-86.94
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
CHF78.90Price Target Upside3.73% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)5.99
Revenue Forecast (FY)CHF4.45B
Julius Baer Group Ltd Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Julius Bär Gruppe AG provides wealth management solutions in Switzerland, Europe, the Americas, Asia, and internationally. The company provides investment advisory and discretionary mandates; structured products, securities execution and advisory,...
How the Company Makes Money
Julius Baer primarily makes money by earning recurring fees and financial income from managing client assets and providing banking services. A core revenue stream is net fee and commission income, which includes (i) asset-based management fees cha...
Julius Baer Group Ltd Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 21, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 04, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a strong operational and financial performance: record AUM and record half-year net profit, robust revenue growth, expanding gross margins, tangible cost savings and a materially stronger capital position. Key strategic and technology initiatives are underway and RM recruitment pipelines are active. Offsetting these positives are near-term headwinds from the deliberate derisking and revised risk & compliance framework that will depress flows into 2027, some H2 cost buildup related to investments, isolated credit write-offs and regional recruitment challenges. On balance the positive financial outcomes and capital resilience significantly outweigh the near-term execution and derisking challenges.Positive Updates
Record Assets Under Management and Client Assets
AUM reached CHF 547 billion, up 5% year-to-date and the highest level in the bank's history; monthly average AUM rose 7% YoY to CHF 526 billion. Assets under custody increased 10%, bringing total client assets to just under CHF 650 billion.
Negative Updates
Derisking and Revised Risk & Compliance Weighing on Flows
Implementation of the revised risk & compliance framework is dampening net new money and growth. Management reiterated that 2026 NNM will be below 2025 and that the impact will carry over into 2027, with normalization expected in 2028; magnitude is not yet quantified.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Assets Under Management and Client Assets
AUM reached CHF 547 billion, up 5% year-to-date and the highest level in the bank's history; monthly average AUM rose 7% YoY to CHF 526 billion. Assets under custody increased 10%, bringing total client assets to just under CHF 650 billion.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The call reiterated that net new money for 2026 will be below 2025 and that the headwind from the revised risk & compliance framework will carry into 2027 (normalising in 2028), while management reconfirmed mid‑term targets including a sustainable cost/income ratio below 67% by 2028 and forward tax guidance of 18–20%; dividend policy remains unchanged with a c.50% payout ratio. Key metrics cited: AUM CHF 547bn (+5% YTD) with monthly average AUM CHF 526bn (+7%), total client assets ~CHF 650bn, net new money CHF 5.7bn (2.2% annualised), operating income CHF 2.276bn (+12%), record H1 net profit CHF 673m (like‑for‑like +32%), gross margin ~87 bps (exit May–Jun 80 bps; recurring 37 bps, activity‑driven 27 bps, interest‑driven 23 bps), costs CHF 1.462bn (+2%) and a H1 cost/income of 62.6% (management expects H2 cost/income <67% given an 80 bps gross margin input), CET1 ratio 18.5% (CET1 CHF 4.3bn, RWAs CHF 23.3bn), Tier‑1 leverage ratio 4.7%, LCR 344%, loan‑to‑deposit 61%, balance sheet ~CHF 117bn (+8%), client deposits CHF 72bn (+8%), loans CHF 44bn (+5%) (Lombard CHF 36bn +7%), treasury book CHF 18bn (+15%), FX swap book ~CHF 27.5bn, credit losses CHF 23m, RM headcount 1,247 with ~120 hires expected in 2026 (31% of RMs on business cases; business case achievement ~69%), plus CHF 60m gross run‑rate savings implemented and CHF 11m fiscal‑year savings already benefiting the P&L.Julius Baer Group Ltd Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
62
Positive
Cash Flow
35
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 5.99B | 5.92B | 3.90B | 3.24B | 4.52B | 4.27B |
| Gross Profit | 4.48B | 4.01B | 3.90B | 813.40M | 4.52B | 4.27B |
| EBITDA | 1.52B | 1.19B | 1.30B | 758.60M | 1.39B | 1.51B |
| Net Income | 1.14B | 763.70M | 1.02B | 454.00M | 949.60M | 1.08B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 116.58B | 107.49B | 105.07B | 96.79B | 105.64B | 116.31B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 7.48B | 25.19B | 30.06B | 16.22B | 18.91B | 25.80B |
| Total Debt | 11.16B | 8.21B | 4.06B | 6.05B | 5.92B | 7.07B |
| Total Liabilities | 109.20B | 100.26B | 98.24B | 90.62B | 99.35B | 109.56B |
| Stockholders Equity | 7.37B | 7.23B | 6.83B | 6.16B | 6.29B | 6.73B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 42.80M | -147.50M | 1.87B | -1.17B | 1.72B | 123.80M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 336.10M | 99.80M | 2.13B | -929.10M | 1.91B | 320.60M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 1.17B | 1.03B | 2.86B | -1.69B | -5.37B | 764.60M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 1.95B | -188.00M | -409.40M | 79.30M | -3.48B | 1.62B |
Julius Baer Group Ltd Technical Analysis
Neutral
76.06
Price Trends
73.84
Negative
71.28
Positive
66.51
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.63
Positive
47.26
Neutral
20.86
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CH:BAER, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 76.06 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 72.19, above the 50-day MA of 73.84, and above the 200-day MA of 66.51, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.63 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 47.26 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 20.86 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for CH:BAER.
Julius Baer Group Ltd Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (55)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | CHF15.40B | 12.97 | ― | 7.74% | 8.63% | -0.75% | |
71 Outperform | CHF5.32B | 14.40 | ― | 2.12% | 3.78% | 17.30% | |
67 Neutral | CHF4.97B | 13.15 | 14.87% | 3.36% | 11.49% | 51.27% | |
66 Neutral | CHF4.84B | 16.95 | 12.14% | 4.12% | -0.85% | -25.22% | |
61 Neutral | CHF14.51B | 12.76 | ― | 3.67% | -0.29% | 31.63% | |
55 Neutral | $6.65B | 3.83 | -15.92% | 6.20% | 10.91% | 7.18% |
* General Sector Average
CH:BAER
Julius Baer Group Ltd
71.76
18.31
34.25%
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Julius Baer Group Ltd Corporate Events
Julius Baer closes FINMA probe, strengthens risk framework and plans share buyback
Sep 29, 2026
Julius Baer Group has confirmed the completion of FINMA’s consolidated enforcement proceedings tied to a past credit event in its former private debt business and legacy money-laundering client cases, all predating the current leadership. Th...
Julius Baer Delivers Record Half-Year Profit on Surging Client Assets
Jul 21, 2026
Julius Baer reported a record IFRS consolidated profit of CHF 673 million for the first half of 2026, with earnings per share more than doubling year-on-year and adjusted results matching the IFRS figures. Assets under management climbed 5% to an ...
Julius Bär names veteran finance executive Peter Burrill as new CFO
Jul 3, 2026
Julius Bär Group has appointed seasoned finance executive Peter Burrill as Chief Financial Officer and member of the Executive Board, effective 17 August 2026 and subject to regulatory approval, succeeding long-serving CFO Evie Kostakis after...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.