Carlyle Group (CG) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $18.74B
• Dividend Yield: 2.63%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.96M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 28.8
• Beta (1Y): 1.74
• Revenue Growth: -22.38%
• EPS Growth: 437.16%
• Country: US
• Employees: 2,300
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Asset Management
• EPS (TTM): 0.91
• Shares Outstanding: 361,704,900
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,946,206
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,957,806
• PEG Ratio: -0.07
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.23
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.34
• P/FCF Ratio: -21.63
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.53
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 4.32
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 5.20
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 15.47
• 1Y Price Target: $66.92
• Price Target Upside: 29.16% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 13
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 69 Neutral
• Price Target: $67.00 ▲(29.32% Upside)

Carlyle Group's strong earnings call performance and reasonable valuation are key strengths, contributing positively to the overall score. However, technical indicators suggest a bearish trend, and financial performance highlights areas for improvement in cash flow and operational efficiency.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Consistent revenue growth indicates effective business strategies and market expansion, supporting long-term financial health.

Strategic Partnerships

Strategic partnerships enhance Carlyle's market reach and investment capabilities, fostering sustainable growth and competitive advantage.

AUM Growth

Record AUM growth reflects strong investor confidence and effective asset management, ensuring steady revenue from management fees.

Negative Factors

Cash Flow Challenges

Low operating cash flow relative to net income suggests potential liquidity issues, impacting financial flexibility and operational efficiency.

Debt Reliance

High reliance on debt can limit financial flexibility and increase risk, potentially affecting long-term stability and growth opportunities.

Real Estate Market Challenges

Challenges in real estate fundraising could hinder growth in this sector, affecting Carlyle's diversification and revenue streams.

Carlyle Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

The Carlyle Group Inc. is an investment firm specializing in direct and fund of fund investments. Within direct investments, it specializes in management-led/ Leveraged buyouts, privatizations, divestitures, strategic minority equity investments, structured credit, global distressed and corporate opportunities, small and middle market, equity private placements, consolidations and buildups, senior debt, mezzanine and leveraged finance, and venture and growth capital financings, seed/startup, early venture, emerging growth, turnaround, mid venture, late venture, PIPES. The firm invests across four segments which include Corporate Private Equity, Real Assets, Global Market Strategies, and Solutions. The firm typically invests in industrial, agribusiness, ecological sector, fintech, airports, parking, Plastics, Rubber, diversified natural resources, minerals, farming, aerospace, defense, automotive, consumer, retail, industrial, infrastructure, energy, power, healthcare, software, software enabled services, semiconductors, communications infrastructure, financial technology, utilities, gaming, systems and related supply chain, electronic systems, systems, oil and gas, processing facilities, power generation assets, technology, systems, real estate, financial services, transportation, business services, telecommunications, media, and logistics sectors. Within the industrial sector, the firm invests in manufacturing, building products, packaging, chemicals, metals and mining, forestry and paper products, and industrial consumables and services. In consumer and retail sectors, it invests in food and beverage, retail, restaurants, consumer products, domestic consumption, consumer services, personal care products, direct marketing, and education. Within aerospace, defense, business services, and government services sectors, it seeks to invest in defense electronics, manufacturing and services, government contracting and services, information technology, distribution companies. In telecommunication and media sectors, it invests in cable TV, directories, publishing, entertainment and content delivery services, wireless infrastructure/services, fixed line networks, satellite services, broadband and Internet, and infrastructure. Within real estate, the firm invests in office, hotel, industrial, retail, for sale residential, student housing, hospitality, multifamily residential, homebuilding and building products, and senior living sectors. The firm seeks to make investments in growing business including those with overleveraged balance sheets. The firm seeks to hold its investments for four to six years. In the healthcare sector, it invests in healthcare services, outsourcing services, companies running clinical trials for pharmaceutical companies, managed care, pharmaceuticals, pharmaceutical related services, healthcare IT, medical, products, and devices. It seeks to invest in companies based in Sub-Saharan focusing on Ghana, Kenya, Mozambique, Botswana, Nigeria, Uganda, West Africa, North Africa and South Africa focusing on Tanzania and Zambia; Asia focusing on Pakistan, India, South East Asia, Indonesia, Philippines, Vietnam, Korea, and Japan; Australia; New Zealand; Europe focusing on France, Italy, Denmark, United Kingdom, Germany, Austria, Belgium, Finland, Iceland, Ireland, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Benelux , Sweden, Switzerland, Hungary, Poland, and Russia; Middle East focusing on Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and UAE; North America focusing on United States which further invest in Southeastern United States, Texas, Boston, San Francisco Bay Area and Pacific Northwest; Asia Pacific; Soviet Union, Central-Eastern Europe, and Israel; Nordic region; and South America focusing on Mexico, Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Peru. The firm seeks to invest in food, financial, and healthcare industries in Western China. In the real estate sector, the firm seeks to invest in various locations across Europe focusing on France and Central Europe, United States, Asia focusing on China, and Latin America. It typically invests between $1 million and $50 million for venture investments and between $50 million and $2 billion for buyouts in companies with enterprise value of between $31.57 million and $1000 million and sales value of $10 million and $500 million. It seeks to invest in companies with market capitalization greater than $50 million and EBITDA between $5 million to $25 million. It prefers to take a majority or a minority stake. It typically holds its investments for three to five years. Within automotive and transportation sectors, the firm seeks to hold its investments in for four to six years. While investing in Japan, it does not invest in companies with more than 1,000 employees and prefers companies' worth between $100 million and $150 million. The firm originates, structures, and acts as lead equity investor in the transactions. The Carlyle Group Inc. was founded in 1987 and is based in Washington, District of Columbia with additional offices in 21 countries across 5 continents (North America, South America, Asia, Australia and Europe).

How the Company Makes Money

Carlyle Group generates revenue primarily through management fees and performance-based fees from its investment funds. Management fees are typically a percentage of the assets under management (AUM), which provide a steady income stream. Performance fees, often referred to as carried interest, are earned when the firm's investment returns exceed a specified benchmark, allowing Carlyle to share in the profits of its successful investments. Additionally, the firm may earn investment income from the underlying portfolio companies and assets it manages. Significant partnerships with institutional investors and access to a broad network of industry contacts enhance Carlyle's ability to source investments and drive returns, contributing to its overall earnings.

Carlyle Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Carlyle Group's financial performance shows strong revenue growth and profitability recovery, supported by effective cost management and robust cash flow. The significant reduction in debt enhances financial stability, though equity backing could be improved.

Income Statement

The Carlyle Group has demonstrated significant revenue growth from $2.64 billion in 2023 to $5.43 billion in 2024, indicating a strong recovery trajectory. However, the net profit margin has fluctuated, with a return to profitability in 2024 at $1.02 billion compared to a loss in 2023. The gross profit margin is consistent with the total revenue, indicating effective cost management. The EBIT margin in 2024 is strong at approximately 87.7%, showcasing operational efficiency despite past volatility.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is stable, with stockholders' equity increasing to $6.35 billion in 2024 from $5.19 billion in 2023, reflecting improved capitalization. The company has reduced its debt significantly, achieving a zero total debt position in 2024, improving the debt-to-equity ratio. However, the equity ratio remains moderate at around 27.5%, suggesting room for strengthening asset backing.

Cash Flow

The Carlyle Group's cash flow position is robust, with free cash flow growing from $138 million in 2023 to over $1 billion in 2024, demonstrating effective cash management and operational improvements. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is positive, indicating efficient conversion of income to cash. However, the historical cash flow volatility suggests potential risks in maintaining this trajectory.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	6.64B	5.43B	2.96B	4.44B	8.78B	2.93B
Gross Profit	5.52B	4.74B	2.42B	4.12B	8.49B	2.68B
EBITDA	1.85B	1.58B	-420.30M	1.72B	4.08B	632.10M
Net Income	1.26B	1.02B	-608.40M	1.23B	2.97B	348.20M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	25.07B	23.10B	21.18B	21.40B	21.25B	15.64B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.74B	2.10B	1.79B	1.57B	2.62B	1.14B
Total Debt	10.71B	9.50B	9.26B	8.68B	8.50B	8.05B
Total Liabilities	18.35B	16.76B	15.39B	14.58B	15.54B	12.71B
Stockholders Equity	6.72B	5.61B	5.19B	6.22B	5.28B	2.69B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	889.30M	-837.20M	138.30M	-419.90M	1.75B	-230.40M
Operating Cash Flow	969.30M	-759.50M	204.90M	-379.30M	1.79B	-169.20M
Investing Cash Flow	-74.90M	-77.60M	-43.60M	-828.80M	-32.20M	-61.20M
Financing Cash Flow	-549.90M	682.80M	-99.60M	114.80M	-242.50M	370.30M

Carlyle Group Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 51.81
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 51.81 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 57.73, below the 50-day MA of 62.06, and below the 200-day MA of 52.27, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -2.07 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 25.88 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 16.70 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CG.

Carlyle Group Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CG	69 Neutral	$18.74B	28.83	10.68%	2.63%	-22.38%	437.16%
BX	69 Neutral	$178.68B	42.06	35.17%	3.25%	31.91%	19.86%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
ARES	64 Neutral	$48.58B	85.07	13.92%	2.88%	45.89%	-9.53%
TPG	63 Neutral	$20.80B	―	2.55%	3.47%	43.48%	-24.02%
KKR	60 Neutral	$104.80B	56.41	8.22%	0.61%	-24.62%	-48.96%
STEP	47 Neutral	$7.19B	―	-88.82%	2.31%	88.68%	-494.20%

Carlyle Group Corporate Events

Carlyle Group Issues $800 Million in Senior Notes

On September 19, 2025, The Carlyle Group Inc. and its subsidiaries entered into a senior notes indenture with The Bank of New York Mellon Trust Company, issuing $800 million in 5.050% Senior Notes due 2035. The notes, guaranteed by Carlyle’s subsidiaries, include covenants limiting certain corporate actions and provide for redemption options and events of default. Additionally, on September 16, 2025, Carlyle and its subsidiaries signed an underwriting agreement with several major financial institutions, ensuring the legality and issuance of the notes.

The most recent analyst rating on (CG) stock is a Buy with a $75.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Carlyle Group stock, see the CG Stock Forecast page.

Carlyle Group Announces $800 Million Senior Notes Offering

On September 16, 2025, Carlyle Group announced the pricing of an $800 million offering of 5.050% senior notes due 2035, guaranteed by its subsidiaries. The proceeds will be used for general corporate purposes, with the offering expected to close on September 19, 2025, subject to customary conditions.

The most recent analyst rating on (CG) stock is a Sell with a $56.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Carlyle Group stock, see the CG Stock Forecast page.

Carlyle Group’s Earnings Call Highlights Robust Growth

Carlyle Group’s recent earnings call painted a picture of robust financial health and strategic growth, despite facing some hurdles in the corporate private equity market. The sentiment expressed was largely positive, highlighting the company’s strong financial performance, significant capital returns, successful fundraising endeavors, and strategic expansions.

Carlyle Group Reports Strong Q2 2025 Results

The Carlyle Group Lp is a global investment firm specializing in private capital deployment across three main segments: Global Private Equity, Global Credit, and Carlyle AlpInvest, with a significant presence worldwide and over $465 billion in assets under management.

Carlyle Group Announces New Leadership Appointments

On July 28, 2025, Carlyle Group announced significant leadership changes effective January 1, 2026, with John C. Redett, Mark Jenkins, and Jeff Nedelman appointed as Co-Presidents. This restructuring aims to enhance Carlyle’s strategic priorities and investment performance. John Redett will oversee Global Private Equity, Mark Jenkins will lead Global Credit and Insurance, and Jeff Nedelman will continue with Global Client Business. Additionally, Justin Plouffe will succeed Redett as Chief Financial Officer. These appointments are expected to strengthen Carlyle’s market positioning and drive future growth, reflecting the firm’s commitment to evolving and delivering value to investors.

The most recent analyst rating on (CG) stock is a Sell with a $45.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Carlyle Group stock, see the CG Stock Forecast page.