Confluent (CFLT) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $8.05B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 5.33M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.30
• Revenue Growth: 24.11%
• EPS Growth: 21.87%
• Country: US
• Employees: 3,060
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Software - Infrastructure
• EPS (TTM): 0.08
• Shares Outstanding: 286,330,080
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 4,734,581
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 5,326,609
• PEG Ratio: -0.48
• Price to Book (P/B): 8.10
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -36.26
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.86
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.84
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 9.19
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -4.43
• 1Y Price Target: $28.35
• Price Target Upside: 19.87% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 28

• Rating: 60 Neutral
• Price Target: $24.00 ▲(1.48%Upside)

Confluent's robust revenue growth and strategic expansion in key areas like cloud services and customer base are significant strengths. However, ongoing profitability challenges, a cautious outlook on future growth due to macroeconomic uncertainties, and a challenging valuation environment weigh down the overall score. The technical analysis indicates neutral market sentiment, adding to the mixed outlook.

Positive Factors

Customer Growth

Customer growth strong with the addition of 340 customers, reaching a total of 6,140.

Platform Expansion

Confluent is positioned as the leader in real-time data streaming with a unique advantage at the intersection of open-source Kafka, platform expansion, and AI infrastructure modernization.

Subscription Revenue

Solid Q1 subscription revenue of $260.9 million beat the estimate, growing 26.1% year-over-year.

Negative Factors

Cloud Performance

Weaker consumption trends and macro volatility weigh on cloud performance, full-year outlook.

Consumption Trends

Management observed that larger customers began slowing the pace of new use case additions and focusing on cost optimization efforts, with no expected near-term rebound in consumption.

Guidance Cut

A slight guidance cut steals thunder from an otherwise stellar Q1.

Confluent Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Confluent, Inc. operates a data streaming platform in the United States and internationally. It offers Confluent Cloud, a managed cloud-native service for connecting and processing data; and Confluent Platform, an enterprise-grade self-managed software that connects and processes data in real-time with the foundational platform for data in motion. It also provides Kafka Connect that enables to build connectors to integrate Apache Kafka with other apps and data systems; ksqlDB, a database for stream processing applications; and stream governance, a solution that is designed for the intricacies of streaming data, which allows teams to expand usage of real-time data without bypassing requirements for risk management and regulatory compliance. In addition, it also offers training and professional services. The company was formerly known as Infinitem, Inc. and changed its name to Confluent, Inc. in September 2014. Confluent, Inc. was incorporated in 2014 and is headquartered in Mountain View, California.

How the Company Makes Money

Confluent generates revenue through a combination of subscription-based services and professional support offerings. The primary revenue stream comes from its Confluent Cloud, a managed service that charges customers based on their usage of data streaming capabilities. This includes fees for data storage, processing, and transfer. Additionally, Confluent Platform, a self-managed software offering, provides another revenue stream through licensing fees. The company also offers training, consulting, and support services, which contribute to its earnings. Key partnerships with cloud providers and enterprise clients further bolster Confluent's revenue, enabling it to tap into a broad customer base seeking robust data streaming solutions.

Confluent Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Confluent is experiencing strong revenue growth and maintains a solid gross profit margin. However, ongoing profitability challenges are highlighted by negative net and operational margins. The balance sheet reflects a stable equity base and manageable debt levels, though high liabilities pose potential risks. Improvements in cash flow are promising, but further efforts are needed to sustain and stabilize growth.

Income Statement

Confluent has shown robust revenue growth, increasing from $236.6 million in 2020 to $1.02 billion in TTM 2025. The company demonstrates a strong gross profit margin, which stands at 73.9% for TTM 2025. However, the net profit margin remains negative, indicating ongoing challenges in achieving profitability, with a net income loss of $319.7 million in TTM 2025. EBIT and EBITDA margins are also negative, reflecting operational inefficiencies. Overall, the company is growing its top line but needs to manage costs better to achieve profitability.

Balance Sheet

Confluent maintains a solid equity base, with stockholders' equity increasing to $1.03 billion in TTM 2025. The debt-to-equity ratio is relatively moderate at 1.08, suggesting a balanced approach to leveraging debt for growth. The equity ratio improved to 38.0%, indicating a stable financial position with a strong asset base. While the company has increased its cash reserves, the overall liabilities remain high, which could pose risks if revenue growth slows.

Cash Flow

The company managed to turn its free cash flow positive in TTM 2025 with $12.9 million, a significant improvement from negative values in previous years. The operating cash flow to net income ratio remains low, indicating that cash generation from operations is still a challenge. Free cash flow growth is positive, but the company needs to focus on sustaining this trend to support its growth initiatives without relying heavily on external financing.

Breakdown
TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
1.02B	963.64M	776.95M	585.94M	387.86M	236.58M
	Gross Profit
752.20M	706.17M	547.28M	383.53M	250.57M	161.10M
	EBIT
-408.81M	-419.15M	-443.92M	-462.67M	-339.62M	-233.18M
	EBITDA
-387.39M	-419.15M	-430.01M	-455.05M	-335.99M	-231.61M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-319.67M	-345.06M	-442.75M	-452.55M	-342.80M	-229.83M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
1.92B	1.91B	1.90B	1.93B	2.02B	288.55M
	Total Assets
2.70B	2.69B	2.46B	2.34B	2.34B	526.12M
	Total Debt
1.11B	1.11B	1.11B	1.12B	1.12B	50.93M
	Net Debt
830.36M	724.00M	763.83M	681.23M	-254.35M	14.14M
	Total Liabilities
1.67B	1.73B	1.65B	1.58B	1.49B	832.37M
	Stockholders Equity
1.03B	961.23M	810.41M	769.48M	850.28M	-306.25M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
12.98M	9.49M	-124.34M	-171.79M	-114.00M	-86.71M
	Operating Cash Flow
32.66M	33.46M	-103.66M	-157.33M	-105.06M	-82.06M
	Investing Cash Flow
-170.22M	-74.98M	-84.85M	-865.80M	-400.58M	-176.86M
	Financing Cash Flow
80.60M	79.81M	102.37M	82.24M	1.84B	276.76M

Confluent Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 23.65
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CFLT, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 23.65 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 23.15, above the 50-day MA of 22.24, and below the 200-day MA of 25.48, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.46 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 54.26 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 43.98 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for CFLT.

Confluent Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
MDB	78 Outperform	$16.80B	―	-4.00%	―	19.24%	59.66%
INFA	78 Outperform	$8.37B	5,125.53	0.09%	―	2.28%	―
PATH	71 Outperform	$6.55B	―	-3.62%	―	7.21%	23.13%
DBX	68 Neutral	$7.91B	18.46	-60.11%	―	0.79%	0.59%
S	64 Neutral	$5.74B	―	-26.98%	―	32.25%	20.56%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$11.97B	10.29	-7.47%	2.99%	7.32%	-8.06%
CFLT	60 Neutral	$8.05B	―	-34.18%	―	24.11%	21.87%

Confluent Corporate Events

Confluent Holds 2025 Annual Stockholders Meeting

On June 11, 2025, Confluent, Inc. conducted its 2025 Annual Meeting of Stockholders, where holders of Class A and Class B common stock participated in voting on three proposals. The stockholders elected Class I directors to serve until 2028, ratified the appointment of PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for 2025, and approved the compensation of named executive officers on a non-binding advisory basis.

The most recent analyst rating on (CFLT) stock is a Hold with a $28.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Confluent stock, see the CFLT Stock Forecast page.