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Certara (CERT) AI Stock Analysis
Certara
(NASDAQ:CERT)
The score is driven primarily by mixed financial performance: resilient operating/free cash flow and a reasonable balance sheet are outweighed by a sharp TTM profitability decline and slightly negative TTM revenue growth. Technicals are a notable support with a strong uptrend and positive momentum indicators. The latest earnings call was net constructive (software/bookings strength and margin expansion), but tempered by narrowed revenue growth guidance and ongoing losses; valuation remains pressured due to a negative P/E and no dividend yield provided.
Certara Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Revenue by TypeAnalyzes revenue streams from different business segments, highlighting which areas are driving growth and which may need strategic adjustments.
Certara's software revenue is experiencing robust growth, driven by strong demand for Simcyp, which recently achieved a significant regulatory milestone with EMA qualification. This segment's 22% year-over-year growth contrasts with the more modest 5% growth in services revenue. Despite macroeconomic challenges and timing issues with Tier 1 software renewals, the company remains optimistic, bolstered by strategic investments like the upcoming CertaraIQ launch. These developments position Certara well for continued expansion in high-growth areas, particularly in biosimulation technology.
The FlyCertara (CERT) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
- Market Cap
- $1.69B
- Dividend Yield
- ―
- Average Volume (3M)
- 2.59M
- Price to Earnings (P/E)
- -25.0
- Beta (1Y)
- 1.73
- Revenue Growth
- 0.66%
- EPS Growth
- -134.07%
- Country
- US
- Employees
- 1,546
- Sector
- Healthcare
- Sector Strength
- 51
- Industry
- Medical - Healthcare Information Services
Certara Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Certara, Inc. provides advanced software solutions and technology-driven services, specializing in biosimulation throughout the entire drug development lifecycle. From initial drug discovery and preclinical research to clinical trials, regulatory sub...
How the Company Makes Money
Certara generates revenue primarily by selling its products and services to organizations involved in developing and regulating medicines. A key revenue stream is software revenue, earned from licensing its drug-development and biosimulation software...
Certara Earnings Call Summary
The call was generally positive. Software growth, bookings, adjusted EBITDA expansion, cost savings, AI initiatives, cloud adoption, regulatory contracts, and commercial restructuring represented significant positives. These were partly offset by declining services revenue and bookings, the narrowed 2026 revenue growth outlook, a continuing operations net loss, restructuring costs, tax expense, and the revenue headwind from cloud conversion. Highlights significantly outweighed the lowlights.
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Negative Updates
Company Guidance
Certara narrowed its 2026 full-year revenue growth range to 2%-3%, expects software revenue growth to be above this range and services revenue to be at or below the low end of that range; its previously communicated full-year Adjusted EBITDA margin outlook was 29%-31%, which remains an appropriate margin range for the fourth quarter, while 2026 adjusted EPS is expected to be $0.31-$0.34, fully diluted weighted average shares are expected to be in the range of 155 million-157 million, and the effective tax rate is modeled in the range of 25%-30%. The company said APAC initiatives are really going to be a 2027 growth impact, expects new AI capabilities to further contribute to growth and positioning in 2027, and will hold off on providing 2027 guidance until later in the year.
Certara Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Cash generation and balance-sheet support are positives (TTM operating cash flow ~$81M and free cash flow ~$59M; moderate leverage with debt-to-equity ~0.30). However, profitability is the core weakness: TTM net margin is deeply negative (-16.7%) and net income deteriorated meaningfully in the TTM period, alongside a modest TTM revenue contraction (-2.4%).
Income Statement
46NeutralBalance Sheet
64PositiveCash Flow
68Positive| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 398.74M | 418.84M | 385.15M | 354.34M | 335.64M | 286.10M |
| Gross Profit | 236.80M | 257.71M | 230.63M | 213.31M | 203.07M | 174.49M |
| EBITDA | 98.70M | 102.52M | 72.37M | 23.84M | 89.00M | 58.58M |
| Net Income | -64.34M | -1.59M | -12.05M | -55.36M | 14.73M | -13.27M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.41B | 1.56B | 1.58B | 1.56B | 1.57B | 1.51B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 214.93M | 189.39M | 179.18M | 234.95M | 236.59M | 185.80M |
| Total Debt | 298.23M | 11.40M | 311.90M | 302.57M | 308.13M | 308.38M |
| Total Liabilities | 437.01M | 493.79M | 516.45M | 516.30M | 493.26M | 469.88M |
| Stockholders Equity | 977.91M | 1.06B | 1.06B | 1.05B | 1.08B | 1.04B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 58.55M | 69.77M | 59.42M | 67.43M | 80.01M | 51.49M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 81.23M | 96.33M | 80.47M | 82.75M | 92.54M | 60.39M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 48.49M | -26.56M | -112.37M | -79.55M | -27.84M | -269.92M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -88.06M | -63.99M | -21.01M | -9.45M | -7.36M | 123.39M |
Certara Technical Analysis
Price Trends
Market Momentum
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CERT, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 11.09 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.14, above the 50-day MA of 9.18, and above the 200-day MA of 7.29, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.57 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 64.86 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 58.57 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CERT.
Certara Risk Analysis
Certara disclosed 43 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Certara reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Latest Risks Added
0 New RisksCertara Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
OPRX70Outperform- CERT62Neutral
TEM61Neutral
DH47Neutral
SOPH47Neutral
Financial Indicators
| Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OPRX | 70Outperform | $175.74M | 40.31 | 3.60% | ― | -5.82% | ― |
| CERT | 62Neutral | $1.66B | -25.01 | -6.66% | ― | 0.66% | -134.07% |
| TEM | 61Neutral | $14.19B | -72.01 | -40.86% | ― | 36.56% | 10.59% |
| Sector * | 51Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% |
| DH | 47Neutral | $169.46M | -0.77 | -78.52% | ― | -4.99% | 39.52% |
| SOPH | 47Neutral | $588.23M | -6.39 | -132.79% | ― | 24.11% | 2.08% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
| Show on chart | Ticker | Company Name | Price | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CERT | Certara, Inc. | 11.09 | -0.18 | -1.60% | |
| OPRX | Optimizerx Corporation | 9.82 | -9.12 | -48.15% | |
| SOPH | Sophia Genetics Sa | 6.97 | 2.23 | 47.05% | |
| DH | Definitive Healthcare Corp. Class A | 1.23 | -1.42 | -53.58% | |
| BFRG | BullFrog AI Holdings, Inc. | 0.53 | -0.43 | -45.21% | |
| TEM | Tempus AI, Inc. Class A | 75.61 | 3.52 | 4.88% |
Certara Corporate Events
Certara Corrects EBITDA Disclosure in Earnings Presentation
NeutralOn August 4, 2026, Certara, Inc. disclosed that its second quarter 2026 earnings call and related presentation contained a misstatement about the 2025 adjusted EBITDA of its recently divested Regulatory and Medical Writing business. The business was...
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.
Date of analysis: Nov 05, 2026