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Commercial National Financial (CEFC) AI Stock Analysis

9 Followers
CEFC

Commercial National Financial

(Other OTC:CEFC)

Select Model
Rating:74Outperform
Price Target:$17.50â–²(9.55% Upside)
Action:reiterated
Date:11/07/26

CEFC scores well primarily on financial performance (healthy profitability, improving leverage over time, and cash flows that broadly support earnings), with valuation also a meaningful positive (low P/E and a ~3.72% dividend yield). Technicals are supportive but not strong enough to lift the stock into a higher tier, reflecting only modest momentum.

Positive Factors
Improving LeverageThe substantial decline in debt-to-equity indicates a stronger capital posture and greater financial resilience than earlier periods. Lower leverage can improve the bank’s ability to absorb operating volatility, support lending activity, and retain flexibility for future capital allocation.
Negative Factors
Margin VolatilityYear-to-year margin volatility reduces confidence in the consistency of the company’s earnings stream. The apparent 2024 operating margin anomaly suggests profitability may be sensitive to changing operating conditions, making future earnings quality and planning less predictable.

Commercial National Financial (CEFC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%CEFC+25.21%SPY+14.30%Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26Nov '26
Market Cap
$62.97M
Dividend Yield
3.69%
Average Volume (3M)
2,117
Price to Earnings (P/E)
9.1
Beta (1Y)
0.27
Revenue Growth
-1.54%
EPS Growth
3.05%
Country
US
Employees
95
Sector
Financial
Sector Strength
68
Industry
Banks - Regional

Commercial National Financial Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Commercial National Financial Corporation operates as the holding company for Commercial Bank that provides various banking products and services to individuals, agricultural and commercial businesses, and light industries in Michigan. It accepts var...

Commercial National Financial Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong overall fundamentals for a regional bank: solid revenue momentum (notably a pickup in 2025), healthy profitability, improving leverage versus earlier years, and operating cash flow/free cash flow that generally supports earnings. The score is held back by margin volatility (including a 2024 operating margin inconsistency), a rise in total debt in 2025, and uneven free cash flow growth year-to-year.

Income Statement

78Positive

Balance Sheet

71Positive

Cash Flow

74Positive
Financial statement breakdown
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue28.12M28.15M29.17M27.39M25.63M21.71M
Gross Profit23.06M22.35M21.08M20.37M22.62M19.30M
EBITDA8.30M8.05M8.16M8.57M10.87M8.45M
Net Income6.82M6.61M5.86M6.17M8.08M6.37M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets564.72M554.21M566.64M579.16M613.75M610.80M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments37.65M57.37M57.33M36.68M70.03M49.44M
Total Debt18.31M23.31M14.95M27.40M32.40M47.80M
Total Liabilities510.12M497.93M516.11M532.35M574.44M565.91M
Stockholders Equity54.60M56.28M50.53M46.81M39.31M44.89M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow06.26M4.82M5.67M7.99M4.41M
Operating Cash Flow06.45M6.19M6.70M8.85M5.24M
Investing Cash Flow015.88M34.91M9.47M17.00M-76.15M
Financing Cash Flow0-20.54M-18.45M-44.31M6.51M56.86M

Commercial National Financial Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentPositive
Last Price15.97

Price Trends

50DMA15.83Positive
100DMA15.61Positive
200DMA14.80Positive

Market Momentum

MACD0.04Negative
RSI61.87Neutral
STOCH67.62Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CEFC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 15.97 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 15.82, above the 50-day MA of 15.83, and above the 200-day MA of 14.80, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.04 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 61.87 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 67.62 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CEFC.

Commercial National Financial Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)

Financial Indicators

CEFC against its peers
NameOverall RatingMarket CapP/E RatioROEDividend YieldRevenue GrowthEPS Growth
OPHCOPHC83Outperform$112.72M5.2416.39%―24.01%20.16%
CEFCCEFC74Outperform$63.37M9.1312.20%3.69%-1.54%3.05%
ASRVASRV70Outperform$80.02M8.827.48%2.53%2.43%75.47%
Sector *68Neutral$18.00B11.429.92%3.81%9.73%1.22%
TCBSTCBS65Neutral$49.55M15.045.83%1.44%2.23%33.79%
HFBLHFBL64Neutral$72.64M11.2111.12%2.37%7.94%43.98%

* Financial Sector Average

Performance Comparison

0%50%100%CEFCASRVHFBLOPHCTCBSDec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26Nov '26
CEFC and its peers over the selected period
Show on chartTickerCompany NamePriceChange% Change
CEFCCommercial National Financial Corporation15.973.2425.44%
ASRVAmeriServ Financial, Inc.4.741.8061.11%
HFBLHome Federal Bancorp Inc. Of Louisiana24.008.7857.73%
OPHCOptimumbank9.074.87115.95%
TCBSTexas Community Bancshares, Inc.17.391.6210.30%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Nov 07, 2026