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CareDx
(NASDAQ:CDNA)
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Rating:78Outperform
Price Target:
$58.00
▲(14.17% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/18/26
CDNA scores well due to a strengthened financial profile (better profitability and strong free cash flow with a conservative balance sheet) and strong technical momentum (price above key moving averages with positive MACD). The latest earnings call further supports the outlook via raised guidance and reimbursement/clinical milestones, while valuation is only moderate and execution risks (expenses, out-of-period revenue, and NavDx integration) keep the score from the high-80s/90s range.
Positive Factors
Guidance and Testing Growth
Raised revenue and testing-volume guidance indicates expanding utilization of CareDx’s diagnostic platform and stronger demand across its testing portfolio. If achieved, this scale can support operating leverage, reinforce relationships with transplant centers, and provide a durable foundation for growth over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Inconsistent Historical Profitability
The recent return to profitability is encouraging, but repeated losses across prior periods make the current earnings level less proven. Continued execution is necessary to demonstrate that improved margins and earnings reflect a sustainable operating model rather than another temporary improvement in a volatile financial history.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Guidance and Testing Growth
Raised revenue and testing-volume guidance indicates expanding utilization of CareDx’s diagnostic platform and stronger demand across its testing portfolio. If achieved, this scale can support operating leverage, reinforce relationships with transplant centers, and provide a durable foundation for growth over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
CareDx Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Shows how the company’s sales break down across its different business lines (for example diagnostics, lab services, and recurring testing or monitoring). That split reveals which parts of the business are driving growth, which produce steadier, subscription-like income, and which are more exposed to reimbursement changes, competition, or single-customer concentration—key for judging future revenue stability and upside potential.
Shows how the company’s sales break down across its different business lines (for example diagnostics, lab services, and recurring testing or monitoring). That split reveals which parts of the business are driving growth, which produce steadier, subscription-like income, and which are more exposed to reimbursement changes, competition, or single-customer concentration—key for judging future revenue stability and upside potential.
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The Fly
The FlyCareDx (CDNA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.63B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.20M
Price to Earnings (P/E)23.6
Beta (1Y)1.02
Revenue Growth34.41%
EPS Growth90.73%
CountryUS
Employees763
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryMedical - Diagnostics & Research
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.15
Shares Outstanding51,734,222
10 Day Avg. Volume1,195,024
30 Day Avg. Volume1,201,246
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.34
Price to Book (P/B)3.31
Price to Sales (P/S)2.64
P/FCF Ratio27.80
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$51.20Price Target Upside0.79% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)1.2
Revenue Forecast (FY)$495.16M
CareDx Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
CareDx, Inc. is a global innovator specializing in the discovery, development, and commercialization of diagnostic and management tools designed for transplant recipients and their healthcare providers. The company's extensive portfolio features a...
How the Company Makes Money
CareDx primarily makes money by providing diagnostic testing and related services to transplant centers and clinicians, with revenue recognized when tests are performed and reported. A core revenue stream comes from its transplant diagnostics port...
CareDx Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 30, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 10, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong organic and inorganic growth, material margin expansion, a fortified balance sheet, and substantive clinical and reimbursement milestones (Medicare LCD, KOAR data, AlloHeme and HistoMap publications). Key near-term risks include sizable operating expense run-rate, material out-of-period revenue that inflated reported margins this quarter, and execution/integration risk around the NavDx acquisition and specialty oncology ASP/margin improvement. Management raised 2026 guidance while taking a conservative approach to NavDx assumptions and flagged potential modest near-term investments that could temper margin expansion. Overall, the positives around revenue growth, cash position, clinical evidence, and coverage developments outweigh the operational and integration cautions.Positive Updates
Strong Top-Line Growth
Total revenue increased 52% year-over-year to $132.0M in Q2 2026, driven by testing services and other segments.
Negative Updates
High Operating Expense Run-Rate
Non-GAAP operating expenses were $75M (57% of revenue) in Q2. Full-year non-GAAP operating expense guidance is $293M–$297M (~60% of revenue), constraining near-term margin expansion.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Top-Line Growth
Total revenue increased 52% year-over-year to $132.0M in Q2 2026, driven by testing services and other segments.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
CareDx raised full-year 2026 guidance to $490–$500M in revenue (midpoint $495M, ~30% YoY) with adjusted EBITDA of $66–$78M (midpoint $72M, ~15% of revenue); testing volume is guided to 258,000–266,000 tests (midpoint 262,000, +31% YoY) with Q3 volume at the midpoint of 72,600 tests (58,000 transplant; 14,600 specialty oncology) and Q4 midpoint 76,300 tests (60,000 transplant; 16,300 specialty oncology); guidance assumes testing services revenue of $400M (including $24M specialty oncology), patient & digital revenue $72M, and product revenue $23M; non‑GAAP gross margin 71%–73%, non‑GAAP operating expenses $293–$297M (~60% of revenue), and depreciation ~ $10M ± $1M; modeling assumes blended revenue per test of $1,527 (ASP $1,367 + $160 out‑of‑period), transplant ASP $1,455 (Q3)/$1,465 (Q4), specialty oncology ASP $770 (Q3)/$795 (Q4), and out‑of‑period revenue of $8M (Q3) and $4M (Q4); the prior $7.5M LCD headwind was removed and the guide excludes transaction completion costs.CareDx Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
66
Positive
Balance Sheet
83
Very Positive
Cash Flow
78
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 458.09M | 379.81M | 333.79M | 280.32M | 321.79M | 296.40M |
| Gross Profit | 323.33M | 256.57M | 224.16M | 178.32M | 209.58M | 199.01M |
| EBITDA | 15.56M | -4.66M | -33.99M | -84.92M | -60.23M | -20.20M |
| Net Income | 111.01M | -21.35M | 52.55M | -190.28M | -76.61M | -30.66M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 532.99M | 413.23M | 491.05M | 466.83M | 542.99M | 566.62M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 373.64M | 177.21M | 260.65M | 235.42M | 293.09M | 348.49M |
| Total Debt | 19.25M | 26.19M | 28.37M | 34.22M | 39.00M | 21.35M |
| Total Liabilities | 107.39M | 110.13M | 112.62M | 205.50M | 112.08M | 100.75M |
| Stockholders Equity | 425.60M | 303.10M | 378.43M | 261.33M | 430.91M | 465.88M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 85.05M | 36.12M | 31.56M | -27.63M | -49.57M | -39.55M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 93.66M | 42.03M | 38.05M | -18.39M | -25.24M | -19.29M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 269.08M | 2.16M | -483.00K | 40.45M | -228.50M | 47.71M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -57.35M | -93.39M | -5.61M | -29.61M | -4.54M | 185.64M |
CareDx Technical Analysis
Positive
50.80
Price Trends
40.71
Positive
31.42
Positive
25.06
Positive
Market Momentum
2.70
Positive
65.49
Neutral
50.69
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CDNA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 50.8 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 48.49, above the 50-day MA of 40.71, and above the 200-day MA of 25.06, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.70 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 65.49 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 50.69 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CDNA.
CareDx Risk Analysis
CareDx disclosed 64 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. CareDx reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
CareDx Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $2.63B | 23.64 | 32.81% | ― | 34.41% | 90.73% | |
71 Outperform | $1.01B | -49.90 | -4.15% | ― | 3.18% | -100.37% | |
60 Neutral | $2.23B | -8.76 | -6.31% | 0.75% | 11.19% | 50.58% | |
57 Neutral | $1.84B | -15.78 | -46.47% | ― | -13.26% | 14.26% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
48 Neutral | $542.88M | -7.00 | -7.87% | ― | 6.83% | -69.59% | |
44 Neutral | $305.12M | -2.67 | -32.59% | 13.45% | -3.16% | 72.02% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
CDNA
CareDx
50.88
37.54
281.41%
MYGN
Myriad Genetics
3.19
-3.72
-53.84%
NEO
NeoGenomics
17.38
9.45
119.17%
FLGT
Fulgent Genetics
19.73
-2.54
-11.41%
PSNL
Personalis
17.20
11.88
223.31%
CSTL
Castle Biosciences
32.91
8.85
36.78%
CareDx Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
CareDx boosts outlook after strong Q2 and divestiture
Positive
Jul 30, 2026
CareDx reported strong second quarter 2026 results, with revenue rising 52% year-over-year to $132 million, driven by a 61% jump in testing services revenue to $100 million and solid growth in patient and digital solutions and lab products. The co...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
CareDx Refocuses Portfolio With Naveris Oncology Acquisition
Positive
Jul 7, 2026
On June 30, 2026, CareDx completed the $171.7 million cash sale of its Swedish subsidiary CareDx AB and its kitted lab products business, including IVD PCR and NGS transplant typing and monitoring assays outside North America, to Eurobio Scientifi...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
CareDx Shareholders Back Directors, Auditor and Equity Plan
Positive
Jun 15, 2026
On June 11, 2026, CareDx, Inc. held its 2026 annual meeting of stockholders, where investors elected five directors to one-year terms and ratified Deloitte Touche LLP as the company’s independent auditor for the fiscal year ending December ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.