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Carnival
(NYSE:CCL)
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Rating:74Outperform
Price Target:
$33.00
▲(25.33% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/05/26
CCL scores well on improved operating performance and a constructive earnings outlook (record bookings/deposits, cost control, and modestly higher EPS guidance), supported by positive technical momentum. The overall score is held back primarily by still-elevated leverage for a cyclical business, and near-term yield risk tied to geopolitical disruption in Europe; valuation is reasonable and corporate actions modestly reinforce balance-sheet improvement.
Positive Factors
Cash generation & margins
Sustained positive operating and free cash flow alongside solid margins provide durable internal funding for debt reduction, fleet investment, and shareholder returns. Reliable cash generation reduces refinancing dependence and supports resilience through travel cycles and periodic demand dips.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage
Despite improvement, a sizable debt load relative to equity leaves limited financial flexibility for a cyclical travel business. Elevated leverage increases refinancing and interest‑rate vulnerability, constraining capital deployment in downturns and heightening reliance on sustained cash generation to de‑risk the balance sheet.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash generation & margins
Sustained positive operating and free cash flow alongside solid margins provide durable internal funding for debt reduction, fleet investment, and shareholder returns. Reliable cash generation reduces refinancing dependence and supports resilience through travel cycles and periodic demand dips.
Read all positive factors
Carnival Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Shows how revenue is distributed across different business areas, highlighting which segments are driving growth and which may need strategic attention.
Shows how revenue is distributed across different business areas, highlighting which segments are driving growth and which may need strategic attention.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyCarnival (CCL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$37.90B
Dividend Yield1.58%
Average Volume (3M)21.86M
Price to Earnings (P/E)12.3
Beta (1Y)1.66
Revenue Growth5.16%
EPS Growth16.93%
CountryUS
Employees160,000
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryTravel Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.31
Shares Outstanding1,369,649,200
10 Day Avg. Volume17,822,368
30 Day Avg. Volume21,858,501
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.31
Price to Book (P/B)2.77
Price to Sales (P/S)1.28
P/FCF Ratio13.05
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$33.36Price Target Upside26.69% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering21
EPS Forecast (FY)2.24
Revenue Forecast (FY)$27.62B
Carnival Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Carnival Corporation & plc (CCL) is a global leisure travel company focused on the cruise industry. Through a portfolio of cruise brands, it operates passenger cruise ships that offer vacation itineraries across multiple regions, providing onboard...
How the Company Makes Money
Carnival primarily makes money by selling cruise tickets and onboard/ancillary products and services tied to those voyages. Its revenue model is typically grouped into (1) passenger ticket revenue and (2) onboard and other revenue. Passenger ticke...
Carnival Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jun 23, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Sep 17, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented strong operational and financial outperformance: record revenue metrics, solid yield and booking momentum (including strong early 2027 bookings), meaningful cost management wins, improved fuel efficiency and a stronger leverage profile that enabled material share repurchases and continued investment in fleet and destinations. These positives were partially offset by transitory but meaningful headwinds from the prolonged Middle East conflict that pressured yields—primarily in Europe—elevated fuel and travel costs, and produced short‑term demand disruption. Management characterizes the yield impact as temporary and emphasized durable structural improvements (commercial capabilities, disciplined fleet strategy, destination assets, and permanent cost savings). Given the breadth and magnitude of operational and balance-sheet gains relative to the described transitory disruptions, the overall tone is constructive.Positive Updates
Record Financial and Operating Results
Carnival reported a record quarter with records across revenues, yields, EBITDA, net income, and customer deposits (customer deposits reached an all-time high of $9.0 billion). Q2 net income was $569 million, more than 20% higher year-over-year.
Negative Updates
Geopolitical Volatility Impact on Yields
The Middle East conflict caused a transitory but material moderation in yields, concentrated in European deployments. Management revised yield expectations by roughly 100 basis points (about a 1 percentage point reduction versus prior guidance), which translated to an approximate $0.14 per share operational headwind.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Financial and Operating Results
Carnival reported a record quarter with records across revenues, yields, EBITDA, net income, and customer deposits (customer deposits reached an all-time high of $9.0 billion). Q2 net income was $569 million, more than 20% higher year-over-year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management updated full‑year June guidance to EPS $2.22 (up $0.01 from prior guidance due to share repurchases) after a strong Q2: net income $569M (up >20% YoY) that beat March guidance by $100M (~$0.07/share), yields +2.2% in Q2 and a normalized full‑year yield growth assumption of ~2.25% (a ~100 bp downward revision vs prior guidance, ~$0.14/share, largely tied to Middle East‑related disruption in Europe), while cruise costs ex‑fuel per ALBD are now expected to be up ~1.3% on a normalized basis (Q2 costs were essentially flat YoY and outperformed March cost guidance by ~2.5 points/250 bps, contributing ~$0.05/share and with $0.06/share of cost savings embedded in the full‑year view). Other operational favorability (~$0.08/share) came from depreciation, fuel consumption (>5% improvement YoY), fuel mix and net interest, and the net fuel/currency impact on guidance is <$0.01/share. Key balance‑sheet and commercial metrics: customer deposits reached a record $9.0B, 93% of capacity for the year is booked at record prices with less inventory vs. last year, adjusted net debt/EBITDA improved to 3.1x (from 3.4x YE25), EBITDA is forecasted >$7B, and the company has repurchased >17M shares for ~$450M of an authorized $2.5B buyback while returning about $1.3B to shareholders this year (buybacks + dividends).Carnival Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
54
Neutral
Cash Flow
71
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Nov 2025 | Nov 2024 | Nov 2023 | Nov 2022 | Nov 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 27.31B | 26.62B | 25.02B | 21.59B | 12.17B | 1.91B |
| Gross Profit | 9.40B | 7.88B | 9.38B | 7.28B | 412.00M | -2.75B |
| EBITDA | 7.16B | 6.91B | 6.23B | 4.37B | -2.20B | -5.69B |
| Net Income | 3.07B | 2.76B | 1.92B | -74.00M | -6.09B | -9.50B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 52.23B | 51.69B | 49.06B | 49.12B | 51.70B | 53.34B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.24B | 1.93B | 1.21B | 2.42B | 4.03B | 9.14B |
| Total Debt | 26.17B | 27.99B | 28.88B | 31.89B | 35.88B | 34.61B |
| Total Liabilities | 39.24B | 39.40B | 39.81B | 42.24B | 44.64B | 41.20B |
| Stockholders Equity | 12.97B | 12.28B | 9.25B | 6.88B | 7.06B | 12.14B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 3.20B | 2.61B | 1.30B | 997.00M | -6.61B | -7.72B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 6.79B | 6.22B | 5.92B | 4.28B | -1.67B | -4.11B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -3.61B | -3.32B | -4.54B | -2.81B | -4.77B | -3.54B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -3.08B | -2.19B | -2.58B | -5.09B | 3.58B | 6.95B |
Carnival Technical Analysis
Positive
26.33
Price Trends
27.75
Positive
26.99
Positive
27.63
Positive
Market Momentum
0.30
Negative
54.96
Neutral
22.07
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CCL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 26.33 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 27.51, below the 50-day MA of 27.75, and below the 200-day MA of 27.63, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.30 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 54.96 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 22.07 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CCL.
Carnival Risk Analysis
Carnival disclosed 17 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Carnival reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Carnival Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $37.90B | 12.30 | 24.45% | 1.14% | 5.16% | 16.93% | |
73 Outperform | $2.70B | 33.65 | 14.46% | 0.72% | 9.82% | 15.96% | |
72 Outperform | $82.60B | 19.05 | 43.83% | 1.70% | 8.72% | 21.01% | |
69 Neutral | $46.49B | 39.15 | 149.42% | ― | 20.78% | 119.41% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
58 Neutral | $2.25B | -92.96 | 9.06% | ― | 18.27% | -39.00% | |
57 Neutral | $8.69B | 11.71 | 32.35% | ― | 6.21% | 2.45% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
CCL
Carnival
28.42
-0.87
-2.97%
RCL
Royal Caribbean
309.88
1.21
0.39%
NCLH
Norwegian Cruise Line
19.55
-4.75
-19.55%
LIND
Lindblad Expeditions Holdings
34.48
20.98
155.41%
OSW
OneSpaWorld Holdings
26.92
5.27
24.36%
VIK
Viking Holdings
106.11
45.39
74.75%
Carnival Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Carnival Redeems Senior Notes, Highlights Stronger Credit Profile
Positive
Aug 5, 2026
On August 5, 2026, Carnival Corporation Ltd. announced it will redeem all $500 million of its 7.000% First-Priority Senior Secured Notes due 2029 on August 15, 2026, at a price of 103.50% of principal, with accrued interest paid to holders of reco...
Business Operations and StrategyDelistings and Listing Changes
Carnival Unifies Dual Listing and Redomiciles to Bermuda
Positive
May 7, 2026
On May 7, 2026, Carnival Corporation completed the unification of its long-standing dual listed structure with Carnival plc into a single entity, Carnival Corporation Ltd., with Carnival plc becoming a U.K. subsidiary. Simultaneously, the company ...
Business Operations and StrategyDelistings and Listing ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Carnival Unifies Dual Structure Under Single Bermuda Entity
Positive
May 7, 2026
On May 7, 2026, Carnival Corporation and Carnival plc completed the unification of their long‑standing dual‑listed company structure under a single Bermuda‑incorporated entity, Carnival Corporation Ltd., with Carnival plc becomin...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.