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Carnival
(NYSE:CCL)
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Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:
$28.00
▲(7.12% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:09/30/26
The score is driven primarily by improving financial performance (profitability and positive cash generation, but still-high leverage and weaker TTM operating margin) and a very constructive earnings-call outlook (record results and raised guidance, with fuel/capex as key risks). Valuation is supportive with a low P/E, while technicals remain mixed with a weaker intermediate trend (negative MACD and price below longer moving averages).
Positive Factors
Strong Demand and Pricing
Record forward bookings, occupancy, pricing and customer deposits indicate sustained demand for Carnival’s cruise product. This supports revenue visibility over coming quarters and gives the company a durable base for ticket pricing and onboard-spending growth.
Negative Factors
High Leverage
Although leverage has improved, debt remains elevated relative to equity for a cyclical travel operator with substantial fixed costs. A downturn or persistently high interest rates could pressure cash flows, restrict investment flexibility and increase refinancing sensitivity.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong Demand and Pricing
Record forward bookings, occupancy, pricing and customer deposits indicate sustained demand for Carnival’s cruise product. This supports revenue visibility over coming quarters and gives the company a durable base for ticket pricing and onboard-spending growth.
Read all positive factors
Carnival Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Shows how revenue is distributed across different business areas, highlighting which segments are driving growth and which may need strategic attention.
Shows how revenue is distributed across different business areas, highlighting which segments are driving growth and which may need strategic attention.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyCarnival (CCL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$35.61B
Dividend Yield1.68%
Average Volume (3M)23.81M
Price to Earnings (P/E)11.6
Beta (1Y)1.65
Revenue Growth5.20%
EPS Growth14.45%
CountryUS
Employees160,000
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryTravel Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.31
Shares Outstanding1,344,610,100
10 Day Avg. Volume27,715,501
30 Day Avg. Volume23,806,015
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.31
Price to Book (P/B)2.77
Price to Sales (P/S)1.28
P/FCF Ratio13.05
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.59
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.05
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit6.00
Enterprise Value/Ebitda7.80
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$34.29Price Target Upside31.17% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering21
EPS Forecast (FY)2.25
Revenue Forecast (FY)$27.71B
Carnival Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Carnival Corporation & plc operates as a prominent global entity in the leisure travel sector. Its extensive fleet of vessels navigates to nearly 700 different ports globally, sailing under a diverse portfolio of acclaimed brands such as Carnival ...
How the Company Makes Money
Carnival primarily makes money by operating cruise vacations and monetizing both the ticket price and onboard spending.
1) Passenger ticket revenue (cruise fares)
- The largest revenue driver is the sale of cruise tickets (often called passenger ...
Carnival Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Sep 29, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Dec 18, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was strongly positive. Carnival reported record revenues, yields, net income and deposits; raised full-year EPS guidance; delivered better-than-expected cost and fuel-consumption performance; described forward bookings and onboard spending as robust; and highlighted improving returns, capital returns and an investment-grade credit rating. The main challenges were higher fuel prices, residual first-quarter 2027 booking disruption, temporary loyalty-program accounting headwinds, Caribbean capacity pressure and higher expected capital expenditures.Positive Updates
Record Quarterly Financial Results
Third quarter revenues, yields and reported net income all reached new highs, while customer deposits also set a record. Net income exceeded June guidance by more than $100 million, or $0.08 per share.
Negative Updates
Higher Fuel Prices Remain a Headwind
Higher fuel prices are expected to have a $150 million impact on full-year results and represented an $0.11 per share headwind to full-year September guidance. Management stated that fuel prices remain volatile and can move up or down.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Quarterly Financial Results
Third quarter revenues, yields and reported net income all reached new highs, while customer deposits also set a record. Net income exceeded June guidance by more than $100 million, or $0.08 per share.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
For full year 2026, September guidance forecasts yield growth of approximately 2.3%, cruise costs, excluding fuel per ALBD, up approximately 2.2% year-over-year, full year EPS guidance of $2.24, up $0.02 from previous guidance, and operational improvement of more than $150 million in net income compared to June guidance, overcoming $150 million impact from increased fuel prices; fourth quarter year-over-year yield growth is expected to be approximately 1.7%, or approximately 2.3% on a normalized basis, while cruise costs, excluding fuel per ALBD, are expected to be up approximately 2.2% year-over-year, or approximately 1.1% on a normalized basis; for 2027, capacity is forecast to increase 0.5% compared to 2026, with occupancy and price at record levels, while Carnival Rewards creates a 0.4 point impact on full year 2027 yields; non-newbuild CapEx was $2.4 billion for 2026 and is expected to be somewhat higher than the $2.4 billion a year for the next few years, and expected EBITDA is more than $7 billion.Carnival Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
56
Neutral
Cash Flow
62
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Nov 2025 | Nov 2024 | Nov 2023 | Nov 2022 | Nov 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 27.59B | 26.62B | 25.02B | 21.59B | 12.17B | 1.91B |
| Gross Profit | 9.44B | 7.88B | 9.38B | 7.28B | 412.00M | -2.75B |
| EBITDA | 7.26B | 6.91B | 6.23B | 4.37B | -2.20B | -5.69B |
| Net Income | 3.14B | 2.76B | 1.92B | -74.00M | -6.09B | -9.50B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 50.97B | 51.69B | 49.06B | 49.12B | 51.70B | 53.34B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.22B | 1.93B | 1.21B | 2.42B | 4.03B | 9.14B |
| Total Debt | 25.16B | 27.99B | 28.88B | 31.89B | 35.88B | 34.61B |
| Total Liabilities | 36.77B | 39.40B | 39.81B | 42.24B | 44.64B | 41.20B |
| Stockholders Equity | 14.19B | 12.28B | 9.25B | 6.88B | 7.06B | 12.14B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 3.18B | 2.61B | 1.30B | 997.00M | -6.61B | -7.72B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 6.82B | 6.22B | 5.92B | 4.28B | -1.67B | -4.11B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -3.69B | -3.32B | -4.54B | -2.81B | -4.77B | -3.54B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -3.67B | -2.19B | -2.58B | -5.09B | 3.58B | 6.95B |
Carnival Technical Analysis
Positive
26.14
Price Trends
25.06
Positive
26.30
Positive
27.13
Negative
Market Momentum
0.69
Negative
66.24
Neutral
88.33
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CCL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 26.14 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 24.17, above the 50-day MA of 25.06, and below the 200-day MA of 27.13, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.69 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 66.24 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 88.33 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CCL.
Carnival Risk Analysis
Carnival disclosed 17 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Carnival reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Carnival Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $2.42B | 30.16 | 14.46% | 0.83% | 9.82% | 15.96% | |
70 Outperform | $35.61B | 11.57 | 23.91% | 1.68% | 5.20% | 14.45% | |
65 Neutral | $75.07B | 17.30 | 43.83% | 1.95% | 8.72% | 21.01% | |
62 Neutral | $36.04B | 27.12 | 117.49% | ― | 20.02% | 62.66% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
59 Neutral | $2.38B | -98.06 | 9.06% | ― | 18.27% | -39.00% | |
52 Neutral | $7.05B | 9.17 | 32.35% | ― | 6.21% | 2.45% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
CCL
Carnival
26.73
-1.65
-5.82%
RCL
Royal Caribbean
281.51
-23.54
-7.72%
NCLH
Norwegian Cruise Line
15.32
-8.26
-35.03%
LIND
Lindblad Expeditions Holdings
36.37
24.00
194.02%
OSW
OneSpaWorld Holdings
24.13
3.81
18.77%
VIK
Viking Holdings
82.16
20.41
33.05%
Carnival Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Carnival Redeems Senior Notes, Highlights Stronger Credit Profile
Positive
Aug 5, 2026
On August 5, 2026, Carnival Corporation Ltd. announced it will redeem all $500 million of its 7.000% First-Priority Senior Secured Notes due 2029 on August 15, 2026, at a price of 103.50% of principal, with accrued interest paid to holders of reco...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.