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Carnival (CCL)
NYSE:CCL
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Carnival (CCL) AI Stock Analysis

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Carnival

(NYSE:CCL)

Rating:74Outperform
Price Target:
$33.00
▲(15.14%Upside)
Carnival Corporation's stock score is driven by strong financial recovery and positive earnings outlook. Technical indicators show bullish momentum, though caution is warranted due to overbought signals. Strategic corporate actions further enhance the company's growth potential.
Positive Factors
Financial Performance
Carnival Corporation's Q2 earnings per share were significantly higher than expected, indicating strong financial performance.
Revenue Management
The company's net revenue yields exceeded expectations, demonstrating effective revenue management.
Negative Factors
Booking Levels
Although the company's booked position remains strong, it is slightly weaker compared to the previous year's record levels.
Research Objectivity
J.P. Morgan may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of its research report on Carnival Corporation.

Carnival (CCL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Carnival Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionCarnival Corporation & plc operates as a leisure travel company. Its ships visit approximately 700 ports under the Carnival Cruise Line, Princess Cruises, Holland America Line, P&O Cruises (Australia), Seabourn, Costa Cruises, AIDA Cruises, P&O Cruises (UK), and Cunard brand names. The company also provides port destinations and other services, as well as owns and owns and operates hotels, lodges, glass-domed railcars, and motor coaches. It sells its cruises primarily through travel agents, tour operators, vacation planners, and websites. The company operates in the United States, Canada, Continental Europe, the United Kingdom, Australia, New Zealand, Asia, and internationally. It operates 87 ships with 223,000 lower berths. Carnival Corporation & plc was founded in 1972 and is headquartered in Miami, Florida.
How the Company Makes MoneyCarnival Corporation generates revenue primarily through ticket sales for its cruise voyages, which include accommodations, meals, and basic onboard amenities. Additional revenue streams come from onboard spending by passengers, such as purchases at specialty restaurants, bars, casinos, spas, and retail outlets, as well as shore excursions and other services. Carnival also earns income from travel and vacation-related services, including port and terminal operations. The company's revenue is influenced by factors such as fleet size, occupancy rates, ticket pricing, and the level of onboard spending. Strategic partnerships with travel agencies and marketing alliances also play a role in reaching wider customer bases and enhancing revenue streams.

Carnival Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Carnival has shown notable recovery with improved revenue, profitability, and cash flow metrics. High leverage remains a risk despite strong revenue growth and improving profit margins.
Income Statement
75
Positive
Carnival's TTM revenue increased with a strong revenue growth rate from the previous year. The company shows a solid gross profit margin of 39.2% and a net profit margin of 9.7%, reflecting improved profitability from the previous losses. However, the EBIT margin at 16.2% and EBITDA margin at 26.0% indicate room for operational efficiency improvements.
Balance Sheet
60
Neutral
The company's debt-to-equity ratio of 2.86 indicates relatively high leverage, which poses a risk in economic downturns. The return on equity is 25.2%, showing effective utilization of shareholder funds. However, the equity ratio of 19.6% suggests a lower proportion of assets financed by equity, indicating financial vulnerability.
Cash Flow
70
Positive
Carnival's free cash flow improved significantly, with a growth rate of 116.3%, indicating better cash management. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 2.15 and free cash flow to net income ratio of 1.11 suggest strong cash generation relative to earnings. However, past negative cash flows remain a concern that needs continued attention.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue25.97B25.02B21.59B12.17B1.91B5.59B
Gross Profit10.18B9.38B7.28B412.00M-2.75B-2.65B
EBITDA6.75B6.23B4.37B-2.20B-5.69B-7.12B
Net Income2.52B1.92B-74.00M-6.09B-9.50B-10.24B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets51.16B49.06B49.12B51.70B53.34B53.59B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments2.15B1.21B2.42B4.03B9.14B9.51B
Total Debt28.65B28.88B31.89B35.88B34.61B28.38B
Total Liabilities41.16B39.81B42.24B44.64B41.20B33.04B
Stockholders Equity10.01B9.25B6.88B7.06B12.14B20.55B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow2.81B1.30B997.00M-6.61B-7.72B-9.92B
Operating Cash Flow5.43B5.92B4.28B-1.67B-4.11B-6.30B
Investing Cash Flow-2.34B-4.54B-2.81B-4.77B-3.54B-3.24B
Financing Cash Flow-2.61B-2.58B-5.09B3.58B6.95B18.65B

Carnival Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price28.66
Price Trends
50DMA
23.97
Positive
100DMA
22.12
Positive
200DMA
22.98
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
1.63
Negative
RSI
66.88
Neutral
STOCH
60.02
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CCL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 28.66 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 26.51, above the 50-day MA of 23.97, and above the 200-day MA of 22.98, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.63 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 66.88 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 60.02 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CCL.

Carnival Risk Analysis

Carnival disclosed 14 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Carnival reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Carnival Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
OSOSW
77
Outperform
$2.19B33.6312.80%0.75%9.80%89.42%
CUCUK
75
Outperform
$37.27B14.2330.02%10.81%175.74%
CCCCL
74
Outperform
$37.29B15.5330.02%10.81%175.74%
63
Neutral
$16.85B11.25-7.01%2.93%1.72%-24.85%
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
CCL
Carnival
28.66
10.34
56.44%
CUK
Carnival
26.26
9.46
56.31%
OSW
OneSpaWorld Holdings
21.35
5.28
32.86%

Carnival Corporate Events

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Carnival Closes €1 Billion Senior Notes Offering
Positive
Jul 7, 2025

On July 7, 2025, Carnival plc successfully closed a private offering of €1.0 billion in senior unsecured notes due 2031, with an interest rate of 4.125% per year. The proceeds from this offering will be used to repay existing borrowings under Carnival Corporation’s senior secured term loan facilities maturing in 2027 and 2028. This transaction is part of Carnival’s strategy to deleverage, reduce interest expenses, and simplify its capital structure, moving closer to achieving an investment-grade credit rating.

The most recent analyst rating on (CCL) stock is a Hold with a $21.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Carnival stock, see the CCL Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Carnival Closes €1 Billion Senior Notes Offering
Positive
Jul 7, 2025

On July 7, 2025, Carnival plc closed a private offering of €1.0 billion in senior unsecured notes due 2031, with an interest rate of 4.125% per year. The proceeds will be used to repay borrowings under senior secured term loan facilities maturing in 2027 and 2028. This transaction is part of Carnival’s strategy to deleverage, reduce interest expenses, and simplify its capital structure. The notes are guaranteed by Carnival Corporation and certain subsidiaries, and were offered to qualified institutional buyers and non-U.S. investors. This move is seen as a step towards achieving an investment-grade credit rating, reflecting Carnival’s ongoing efforts to strengthen its financial position.

The most recent analyst rating on (CCL) stock is a Hold with a $21.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Carnival stock, see the CCL Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and Financing
Carnival Secures $4.5 Billion Credit Facility
Positive
Jun 13, 2025

On June 13, 2025, Carnival Corporation and Carnival plc announced the successful arrangement of a new $4.5 billion multi-currency revolving credit facility, replacing the existing facility of Carnival Holdings (Bermuda) II Limited. This new agreement, which matures in 2030, includes an accordion feature for up to $1.0 billion of additional commitments and is expected to enhance the company’s liquidity, aiding in debt reduction efforts. The facility is unsecured and guaranteed by the same subsidiaries that guarantee the company’s senior secured term loan facilities, reflecting confidence in Carnival’s continued performance and strong banking relationships.

The most recent analyst rating on (CCL) stock is a Hold with a $21.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Carnival stock, see the CCL Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and Financing
Carnival Secures $4.5 Billion Credit Facility
Positive
Jun 13, 2025

On June 13, 2025, Carnival Corporation and Carnival plc announced the successful arrangement of a new $4.5 billion multi-currency revolving credit facility, replacing the existing facility. This new agreement, which matures in June 2030, includes an accordion feature for additional commitments and reflects confidence in Carnival’s financial performance and banking relationships. The new facility is unsecured and guaranteed by the same subsidiaries that back the company’s senior secured term loan facilities, enhancing liquidity and supporting debt reduction efforts.

The most recent analyst rating on (CCL) stock is a Hold with a $21.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Carnival stock, see the CCL Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Carnival Completes $1 Billion Senior Notes Offering
Positive
May 21, 2025

On May 21, 2025, Carnival Corporation closed a private offering of $1.0 billion in senior unsecured notes due 2031, with an interest rate of 5.875%. The proceeds will be used to redeem $993 million of the company’s 7.625% senior unsecured notes due 2026, continuing its strategy to reduce interest expenses and manage future debt maturities. This transaction is expected to reduce net interest expenses by over $20 million through the maturity date of the 2026 notes. The notes are guaranteed by Carnival plc and certain subsidiaries and include investment-grade covenants, offering a strategic advantage in managing the company’s financial obligations.

The most recent analyst rating on (CCL) stock is a Hold with a $21.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Carnival stock, see the CCL Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Carnival Completes $1 Billion Senior Notes Offering
Positive
May 21, 2025

On May 21, 2025, Carnival Corporation closed a private offering of $1.0 billion in senior unsecured notes due 2031, with a 5.875% interest rate. The proceeds will be used to redeem $993 million of the company’s 7.625% senior unsecured notes due 2026, continuing its strategy to reduce interest expenses and manage debt maturities. The transaction is expected to save over $20 million in net interest expenses by the maturity date of the 2026 notes. The notes are guaranteed by Carnival plc and certain subsidiaries and include investment-grade covenants.

The most recent analyst rating on (CCL) stock is a Hold with a $21.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Carnival stock, see the CCL Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 08, 2025