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Maplebear
(NASDAQ:CART)
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Rating:75Outperform
Price Target:
$68.00
▲(33.94% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/27/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (high margins, low leverage, and robust free cash flow) and a generally positive earnings outlook with profitable growth and advertising strength. Offsetting factors are a premium valuation, technically stretched momentum (RSI/Stoch elevated), and mixed corporate events including expected wind-down charges for Caper Cart.
Positive Factors
Marketplace and advertising growth
Double-digit GTV and revenue growth shows continued consumer activity and retailer engagement on the marketplace. Advertising growing faster than GTV adds a higher-value monetization layer, supporting revenue diversification and durable operating leverage as shopping activity expands.
Negative Factors
Gross margin pressure from advertising expansion
Advertising growth is increasingly accompanied by payments to publishers, which is compressing gross profit as a percentage of GTV. If these partnership costs remain elevated, faster advertising revenue may translate less efficiently into operating profit despite strong demand.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Marketplace and advertising growth
Double-digit GTV and revenue growth shows continued consumer activity and retailer engagement on the marketplace. Advertising growing faster than GTV adds a higher-value monetization layer, supporting revenue diversification and durable operating leverage as shopping activity expands.
Read all positive factors
Maplebear Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Gross Transaction Volume
Represents the total value of transactions processed, highlighting the scale of business operations and market reach.
Represents the total value of transactions processed, highlighting the scale of business operations and market reach.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyMaplebear (CART) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$14.09B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)4.15M
Price to Earnings (P/E)32.0
Beta (1Y)0.75
Revenue Growth12.61%
EPS Growth2.28%
CountryUS
Employees3,600
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustrySoftware - Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.90
Shares Outstanding231,500,060
10 Day Avg. Volume4,466,521
30 Day Avg. Volume4,145,928
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio22.23
Price to Book (P/B)4.67
Price to Sales (P/S)3.14
P/FCF Ratio12.90
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.78
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.77
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.82
Enterprise Value/Ebitda14.92
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$58.59Price Target Upside15.40% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering24
EPS Forecast (FY)2.33
Revenue Forecast (FY)$4.26B
Maplebear Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Maplebear Inc., doing business as Instacart, operates as a technology and enablement partner for the grocery industry in the United States and internationally. The company offers Instacart Marketplace which helps retailers serve customers’ needs b...
How the Company Makes Money
Instacart generates revenue primarily from (1) transaction-related fees tied to orders placed through its marketplace, (2) subscriptions, and (3) advertising and related services sold to brands.
1) Transaction-related revenue (orders/marketplace)...
Maplebear Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 06, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlights broad-based momentum: double-digit GTV and revenue growth, strong advertising performance, improving order quality for the 16th consecutive quarter, meaningful Adjusted EBITDA expansion, and large operating/free cash flow gains. Strategic initiatives — AI assistant rollout, Arpalus and Instaleap acquisitions, Storefront Pro expansion, and enterprise signings — support durable growth and deeper retailer relationships. Offsetting items include modest GAAP net income decline due to timing of stock-based compensation, slight gross margin pressure from increased payments to publishers, and widened guidance ranges reflecting larger operating scale and variability. Some cash flow strength was also driven by a large accounts receivable collection, which is timing-sensitive. Overall, positives significantly outweigh the challenges, with management emphasizing profitable growth and continued reinvestment.Positive Updates
Strong GTV and Revenue Growth
Gross Transaction Value (GTV) was $10.35B, up 14% year-over-year. Total revenue was $1.04B, up 14% year-over-year, driven by GTV growth and advertising strength.
Negative Updates
GAAP Net Income Decline
GAAP net income was $111M, down 4% year-over-year, primarily due to an increase in stock-based compensation tied to a shift in vesting timing for annual equity grants.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong GTV and Revenue Growth
Gross Transaction Value (GTV) was $10.35B, up 14% year-over-year. Total revenue was $1.04B, up 14% year-over-year, driven by GTV growth and advertising strength.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Instacart guided Q3 2026 GTV of $10.3B–$10.55B (midpoint $10.425B, ~14% YoY at the midpoint) and said GTV should continue to outpace orders, and guided Adjusted EBITDA of $320M–$340M (midpoint $330M, ~19% YoY at the midpoint); advertising & other revenue is expected to grow 15%–18% YoY and to again outpace GTV. Management said it has widened GTV and Adjusted EBITDA ranges (reflecting larger operating scale), that the midpoint is its best estimate and it now expects to land within the ranges, and reiterated full‑year expectations that Adjusted EBITDA will grow faster than GTV while moderating expansion as it reinvests and laps prior expense efficiencies.Maplebear Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
91
Very Positive
Cash Flow
88
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 3.99B | 3.74B | 3.38B | 3.04B | 2.55B | 1.83B |
| Gross Profit | 2.89B | 2.76B | 2.54B | 2.28B | 1.83B | 1.23B |
| EBITDA | 741.00M | 655.00M | 619.00M | -2.00B | 118.00M | -45.00M |
| Net Income | 480.00M | 447.00M | 457.00M | -1.62B | 428.00M | -73.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 3.51B | 3.69B | 4.12B | 4.73B | 3.67B | 2.96B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 850.00M | 687.00M | 1.52B | 2.19B | 1.79B | 1.50B |
| Total Debt | 34.00M | 36.00M | 26.00M | 40.00M | 49.00M | 54.00M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.19B | 1.17B | 1.02B | 977.00M | 911.00M | 712.00M |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.32B | 2.52B | 3.09B | 3.75B | 2.76B | 2.25B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.18B | 911.00M | 623.00M | 530.00M | 251.00M | -226.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.23B | 972.00M | 687.00M | 586.00M | 277.00M | -204.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -108.00M | -208.00M | -107.00M | 135.00M | 117.00M | -330.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.87B | -1.39B | -1.41B | -30.00M | 46.00M | 464.00M |
Maplebear Technical Analysis
Positive
50.77
Price Trends
48.16
Positive
46.82
Positive
42.90
Positive
Market Momentum
1.70
Negative
77.15
Negative
84.90
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CART, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 50.77 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 47.78, above the 50-day MA of 48.16, and above the 200-day MA of 42.90, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.70 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 77.15 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 84.90 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CART.
Maplebear Risk Analysis
Maplebear disclosed 66 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Maplebear reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Maplebear Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
81 Outperform | $6.01B | 3.97 | 24.62% | 4.91% | 2.38% | 64.31% | |
75 Outperform | $14.09B | 32.04 | 17.63% | ― | 12.61% | 2.28% | |
66 Neutral | $7.84B | 40.30 | -17.67% | ― | 0.73% | 44.07% | |
66 Neutral | $8.80B | 33.18 | 62.13% | ― | 5.86% | 81.66% | |
64 Neutral | $10.31B | 17.22 | -15.48% | 2.46% | 4.50% | 5.70% | |
62 Neutral | $15.48B | -46.00 | 11.48% | ― | 7.46% | -2.70% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
CART
Maplebear
60.88
22.53
58.75%
DPZ
Domino's Pizza
313.32
-90.64
-22.44%
VIPS
Vipshop
12.63
-5.33
-29.67%
W
Wayfair
113.05
26.60
30.77%
ETSY
Etsy
85.43
9.87
13.06%
CHWY
Chewy
21.90
-12.71
-36.72%
Maplebear Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresProduct-Related Announcements
Maplebear to Wind Down Caper Cart Operations
Negative
Oct 26, 2026
On October 25, 2026, Maplebear Inc.’s Board of Directors decided to wind down its Caper Cart operations to re-align resources with the company’s strategic priorities. The wind-down is expected to be substantially completed by the end o...
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Maplebear Eliminates Series A Preferred, Streamlining Capital
Positive
Sep 25, 2026
On September 21, 2026, Maplebear Inc. received a notice from the holder of all 5,833,333 shares of its Series A Convertible Preferred Stock to convert those shares into an equal number of common shares. The company issued 5,833,333 common shares t...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.