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Maplebear
(NASDAQ:CART)
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Rating:76Outperform
Price Target:
$49.00
▼(-3.49% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:09/26/26
CART’s score is driven primarily by strong financial quality (high margins, very low leverage, and robust free cash flow) and a positive earnings outlook with solid growth and profitability guidance. These strengths are tempered by weak near-term technical momentum (below key moving averages with negative MACD) and a valuation that is reasonable rather than clearly discounted, with no dividend yield provided.
Positive Factors
Double-Digit Growth
Double-digit GTV and revenue growth shows continued expansion of marketplace activity, while advertising is growing faster than transactions. This mix supports a durable growth model because higher-margin brand monetization can compound alongside consumer ordering and retailer engagement.
Negative Factors
Earnings Volatility
The history of a significant loss followed by renewed profitability shows that earnings have not been consistently stable through the cycle. Such volatility can complicate planning, reduce confidence in near-term earnings durability, and constrain the predictability of cash available for investment.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Double-Digit Growth
Double-digit GTV and revenue growth shows continued expansion of marketplace activity, while advertising is growing faster than transactions. This mix supports a durable growth model because higher-margin brand monetization can compound alongside consumer ordering and retailer engagement.
Read all positive factors
Maplebear Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Gross Transaction Volume
Represents the total value of transactions processed, highlighting the scale of business operations and market reach.
Represents the total value of transactions processed, highlighting the scale of business operations and market reach.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyMaplebear (CART) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$9.98B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)3.77M
Price to Earnings (P/E)23.1
Beta (1Y)0.80
Revenue Growth12.61%
EPS Growth2.28%
CountryUS
Employees3,600
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustrySoftware - Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.90
Shares Outstanding231,500,060
10 Day Avg. Volume4,748,743
30 Day Avg. Volume3,770,701
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio22.23
Price to Book (P/B)4.67
Price to Sales (P/S)3.14
P/FCF Ratio12.90
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$57.91Price Target Upside14.06% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering24
EPS Forecast (FY)2.33
Revenue Forecast (FY)$4.26B
Maplebear Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Maplebear Inc., doing business as Instacart, operates as a technology and enablement partner for the grocery industry in the United States and internationally. The company offers Instacart Marketplace which helps retailers serve customers’ needs b...
How the Company Makes Money
Instacart primarily makes money through a combination of transaction-related revenue from its marketplace and high-margin advertising/technology revenue.
1) Transaction and service revenue (consumer and retailer-facing fees)
- Consumer fees: When...
Maplebear Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 06, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 17, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlights broad-based momentum: double-digit GTV and revenue growth, strong advertising performance, improving order quality for the 16th consecutive quarter, meaningful Adjusted EBITDA expansion, and large operating/free cash flow gains. Strategic initiatives — AI assistant rollout, Arpalus and Instaleap acquisitions, Storefront Pro expansion, and enterprise signings — support durable growth and deeper retailer relationships. Offsetting items include modest GAAP net income decline due to timing of stock-based compensation, slight gross margin pressure from increased payments to publishers, and widened guidance ranges reflecting larger operating scale and variability. Some cash flow strength was also driven by a large accounts receivable collection, which is timing-sensitive. Overall, positives significantly outweigh the challenges, with management emphasizing profitable growth and continued reinvestment.Positive Updates
Strong GTV and Revenue Growth
Gross Transaction Value (GTV) was $10.35B, up 14% year-over-year. Total revenue was $1.04B, up 14% year-over-year, driven by GTV growth and advertising strength.
Negative Updates
GAAP Net Income Decline
GAAP net income was $111M, down 4% year-over-year, primarily due to an increase in stock-based compensation tied to a shift in vesting timing for annual equity grants.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong GTV and Revenue Growth
Gross Transaction Value (GTV) was $10.35B, up 14% year-over-year. Total revenue was $1.04B, up 14% year-over-year, driven by GTV growth and advertising strength.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Instacart guided Q3 2026 GTV of $10.3B–$10.55B (midpoint $10.425B, ~14% YoY at the midpoint) and said GTV should continue to outpace orders, and guided Adjusted EBITDA of $320M–$340M (midpoint $330M, ~19% YoY at the midpoint); advertising & other revenue is expected to grow 15%–18% YoY and to again outpace GTV. Management said it has widened GTV and Adjusted EBITDA ranges (reflecting larger operating scale), that the midpoint is its best estimate and it now expects to land within the ranges, and reiterated full‑year expectations that Adjusted EBITDA will grow faster than GTV while moderating expansion as it reinvests and laps prior expense efficiencies.Maplebear Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
91
Very Positive
Cash Flow
88
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 3.99B | 3.74B | 3.38B | 3.04B | 2.55B | 1.83B |
| Gross Profit | 2.89B | 2.76B | 2.54B | 2.28B | 1.83B | 1.23B |
| EBITDA | 741.00M | 655.00M | 619.00M | -2.00B | 118.00M | -45.00M |
| Net Income | 480.00M | 447.00M | 457.00M | -1.62B | 428.00M | -73.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 3.51B | 3.69B | 4.12B | 4.73B | 3.67B | 2.96B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 850.00M | 687.00M | 1.52B | 2.19B | 1.79B | 1.50B |
| Total Debt | 34.00M | 36.00M | 26.00M | 40.00M | 49.00M | 54.00M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.19B | 1.17B | 1.02B | 977.00M | 911.00M | 712.00M |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.32B | 2.52B | 3.09B | 3.75B | 2.76B | 2.25B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.18B | 911.00M | 623.00M | 530.00M | 251.00M | -226.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.23B | 972.00M | 687.00M | 586.00M | 277.00M | -204.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -108.00M | -208.00M | -107.00M | 135.00M | 117.00M | -330.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.87B | -1.39B | -1.41B | -30.00M | 46.00M | 464.00M |
Maplebear Technical Analysis
Neutral
50.77
Price Trends
47.31
Negative
45.46
Negative
42.60
Positive
Market Momentum
-1.45
Positive
40.20
Neutral
34.88
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CART, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 50.77 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 46.04, above the 50-day MA of 47.31, and above the 200-day MA of 42.60, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.45 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 40.20 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 34.88 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for CART.
Maplebear Risk Analysis
Maplebear disclosed 66 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Maplebear reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Maplebear Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
81 Outperform | $5.95B | 3.94 | 24.62% | 4.98% | 2.38% | 64.31% | |
76 Outperform | $9.98B | 23.13 | 17.63% | ― | 12.61% | 2.28% | |
70 Outperform | $9.91B | 16.71 | -15.15% | 2.61% | 5.16% | 2.13% | |
66 Neutral | $6.56B | 34.37 | -17.67% | ― | 0.73% | 44.07% | |
66 Neutral | $7.32B | 34.31 | 49.51% | ― | 5.86% | 81.66% | |
62 Neutral | $14.05B | -41.20 | 11.48% | ― | 7.46% | -2.70% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
CART
Maplebear
44.11
4.81
12.24%
DPZ
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295.00
-127.11
-30.11%
VIPS
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12.44
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W
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101.37
15.02
17.39%
ETSY
Etsy
72.84
0.30
0.41%
CHWY
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17.72
-21.53
-54.85%
Maplebear Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Maplebear Eliminates Series A Preferred, Streamlining Capital
Positive
Sep 25, 2026
On September 21, 2026, Maplebear Inc. received a notice from the holder of all 5,833,333 shares of its Series A Convertible Preferred Stock to convert those shares into an equal number of common shares. The company issued 5,833,333 common shares t...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.