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Bavarian Nordic
(OTC:BVNRY)
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Rating:82Outperform
Price Target:
$12.50
▲(12.92% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/24/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial quality (high current profitability, very conservative balance sheet, and solid free cash flow). Earnings-call updates add support via upgraded FY26 revenue and margin guidance plus an expanded buyback, partially offset by near-term product headwinds and CEO transition risk. Technicals are bullish but look overextended (very high RSI/Stoch), and valuation is moderately attractive based on the low P/E.
Positive Factors
Conservative balance sheet
Minimal leverage gives Bavarian Nordic substantial financial resilience and flexibility to fund manufacturing, pipeline development, acquisitions, or shareholder returns without heavy debt-service pressure.
Negative Factors
Government demand variability
Reliance on government tenders, stockpiling, and outbreak responses makes revenue timing inherently uneven, creating a persistent risk that future procurement cycles will not match current preparedness strength.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Conservative balance sheet
Minimal leverage gives Bavarian Nordic substantial financial resilience and flexibility to fund manufacturing, pipeline development, acquisitions, or shareholder returns without heavy debt-service pressure.
Read all positive factors
Bavarian Nordic (BVNRY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.62B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)793.00
Price to Earnings (P/E)10.8
Beta (1Y)0.69
Revenue Growth3.52%
EPS Growth18.37%
CountryUS
Employees1,795
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryBiotechnology
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)6.64
Shares Outstanding237,712,550
10 Day Avg. Volume0
30 Day Avg. Volume793
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.32
Price to Book (P/B)1.15
Price to Sales (P/S)2.49
P/FCF Ratio6.11
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
Bavarian Nordic Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Bavarian Nordic A/S is a Danish biopharmaceutical company specializing in the development, production, and global commercialization of essential, life-saving vaccines. Its marketed portfolio includes non-replicating vaccines for smallpox and monke...
How the Company Makes Money
Bavarian Nordic primarily makes money by selling vaccines to governments, public health agencies, and commercial customers, with revenue concentrated in a few key product areas and channels. (1) Public-sector procurement and preparedness: A major ...
Bavarian Nordic Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 21, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 13, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a broadly positive picture: strong H1 revenue (DKK 3.092 billion), high gross (61%) and EBITDA margins (35% H1; 45% Q2), upgraded full-year revenue and margin guidance (DKK 5.7 billion and ~30%), a robust cash position (DKK 2.3 billion) and an expanded share buyback program (up to DKK 750 million). Growth across Travel Health (26% H1, 45% Q2), particularly rabies (+40% H1) and TBE (+17% H1), plus meaningful pipeline progress (EBV Phase I, promising Lyme preclinical data) reinforce a constructive outlook. Key near-term negatives include a downgrade to Vimkunya sales guidance (to DKK 200 million) due to delayed U.S. ACIP guidance, temporary shelf-life constraints on TBE with return risk, and an H1 cash flow impact from a one‑off milestone payment. Overall, the positive operational and financial momentum outweigh the identifiable short-term headwinds.Positive Updates
Strong top-line performance (H1 and Q2)
Reported revenue of DKK 3.092 billion for the first half of 2026 and Q2 revenue of DKK 2.034 billion, driven by balanced contributions from Public Preparedness and Travel Health.
Negative Updates
Vimkunya near-term sales downgrade
Full-year Vimkunya sales guidance reduced to approximately DKK 200 million (previously ~DKK 250 million). Company cited U.S. headwinds driven by delay in ACIP/MMWR publication causing distributor reluctance, and Q2 sales were lower than Q1 during the launch phase.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong top-line performance (H1 and Q2)
Reported revenue of DKK 3.092 billion for the first half of 2026 and Q2 revenue of DKK 2.034 billion, driven by balanced contributions from Public Preparedness and Travel Health.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management upgraded FY26 guidance after a strong H1: revenue for H1 was DKK 3.092 billion (Q2 DKK 2.034 billion) with an H1 EBITDA margin of 35% (Q2 45%), and they now confirm full‑year revenue of approximately DKK 5.7 billion (Travel Health ~DKK 3.0 billion unchanged; Public Preparedness upgraded to ~DKK 2.5 billion from an original DKK 1.8–2.0 billion range, with DKK 2.3 billion already secured in contracts), Vimkunya sales guidance was reduced to ~DKK 200 million (from DKK 250 million), EBITDA margin guidance lifted to ~30% (from ~28%), cash on hand stands at DKK 2.3 billion, operating cash flow H1 was ~‑DKK 400 million (impacted by an EUR 70 million milestone to GSK) with Q2 operating cash flow of DKK 351 million, financing cash flow H1 was ~‑DKK 464 million (including prior buyback), and the company launched a new share buyback program of up to DKK 750 million.Bavarian Nordic Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
84
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
92
Very Positive
Cash Flow
78
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 6.08B | 5.93B | 5.72B | 7.06B | 3.15B | 1.90B |
| Gross Profit | 3.14B | 2.81B | 2.82B | 4.53B | 1.70B | 570.32M |
| EBITDA | 2.64B | 1.57B | 1.67B | 2.05B | 84.28M | 35.80M |
| Net Income | 1.56B | 1.32B | 987.98M | 1.48B | -347.38M | -464.77M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 14.72B | 14.95B | 14.41B | 14.35B | 12.39B | 12.09B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.36B | 3.33B | 2.18B | 1.87B | 2.85B | 3.72B |
| Total Debt | 131.35M | 130.86M | 128.25M | 145.30M | 1.76B | 1.13B |
| Total Liabilities | 1.51B | 2.08B | 3.00B | 4.01B | 5.24B | 4.71B |
| Stockholders Equity | 13.22B | 12.87B | 11.41B | 10.34B | 7.15B | 7.37B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.23B | 2.42B | 262.19M | 141.80M | -1.16B | -1.42B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.43B | 2.62B | 1.95B | 1.12B | 220.05M | -358.50M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.45B | -2.39B | -1.87B | -945.56M | -877.40M | -2.88B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -414.47M | -109.97M | 55.77M | 735.83M | 635.82M | 3.54B |
Bavarian Nordic Technical Analysis
Positive
11.07
Price Trends
9.51
Positive
9.69
Positive
9.82
Positive
Market Momentum
0.50
Negative
74.53
Negative
82.16
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BVNRY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 11.07 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.91, above the 50-day MA of 9.51, and above the 200-day MA of 9.82, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.50 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 74.53 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 82.16 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for BVNRY.
Bavarian Nordic Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
82 Outperform | $2.62B | 10.82 | 11.88% | ― | 3.52% | 18.37% | |
60 Neutral | $8.51B | -14.61 | -69.59% | ― | ― | 1.28% | |
59 Neutral | $9.82B | -36.35 | -21.50% | ― | 134.84% | 6.73% | |
58 Neutral | $5.81B | -12.66 | -43.98% | ― | -100.00% | -33.88% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
48 Neutral | $2.52B | -4.39 | 392.35% | ― | 17.50% | -5.66% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
BVNRY
Bavarian Nordic
11.06
-1.22
-9.93%
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.