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BP (BP) AI Stock Analysis
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BP
(NYSE:BP)
The score is primarily driven by recovering financial performance backed by strong free cash flow, alongside favorable technical momentum with price trading above key moving averages. These positives are moderated by valuation (P/E ~24.37 despite a ~4.00% yield) and earnings-call risks including impairment charges, safety issues, and softer near-term Q4 guidance.
BP Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Operating Revenue by SegmentShows how much revenue each business segment generates, highlighting which areas are driving growth and which may need strategic adjustments.
BP’s segment mix reflects a reporting reset from 2021: Customers & Products is the clear revenue engine while Gas & Low Carbon Energy exhibits wide, commodity‑driven swings tied to trading and LNG optionality. Oil Production & Operations is a much smaller, volatile contributor—recent exploration (e.g., Bumerangue) provides upside but commercialization and timing remain uncertain. Management flagged strong refinery throughput yet weakening refining margins and a $6B working‑capital build that pushed net debt higher, so top‑line strength may not convert into near‑term shareholder returns as buybacks are paused and capital prioritizes deleveraging.
The FlyBP (BP) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
- Market Cap
- $132.15B
- Dividend Yield
- 4.00%
- Average Volume (3M)
- 9.17M
- Price to Earnings (P/E)
- 24.4
- Beta (1Y)
- -0.01
- Revenue Growth
- 26.40%
- EPS Growth
- 473.45%
- Country
- US
- Employees
- 93,700
- Sector
- Energy
- Sector Strength
- 65
- Industry
- Oil & Gas Integrated
BP Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
BP p.l.c. operates as a global energy company, offering a wide array of carbon-based and sustainable products and services. Its operations are structured across three primary segments: Gas & Low Carbon Energy, Oil Production & Operations, and Custome...
How the Company Makes Money
BP makes money primarily by producing, processing, trading, and selling energy and energy-related products and services across its integrated value chain. 1) Upstream (oil and natural gas production) - BP generates revenue by selling crude oil, natur...
BP Earnings Call Summary
The call was broadly positive: BP reported strong profit, cash flow, free cash flow, operational performance, balance sheet progress, portfolio actions, and progress toward its targets. These positives outweighed the stated challenges, including higher process safety events, a $4 billion impairment charge, asset performance variability, remaining financial obligations, and a weaker expected customers result in the fourth quarter. Management nevertheless emphasized that more work remains to improve safety, consistency, portfolio returns, and the balance sheet.
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Negative Updates
Company Guidance
For the fourth quarter compared to the third quarter, customers are expected to deliver a significantly lower result, reflecting seasonally lower volumes, a lower midstream result, and Castrol earnings subject to the anticipated completion of the Castrol divestment; fuels margins and midstream performance are expected to remain sensitive to market conditions, and income taxes paid are expected to be around $800 million higher. For full year 2026, divestment and other proceeds are expected to be around $8 billion, the full year underlying effective tax rate is expected to be between 31% and 34%, and the timing of payment of the recently announced $350 million settlement with the U.S. state of Louisiana is still to be determined. The current estimate for the remainder of the year is a working capital release of around half a billion dollars, and financial obligations are expected to reduce to around $33 billion-$35 billion by the end of 2026; in refining, the target is to keep availability above 96%.
BP Financial Statement Overview
Summary
TTM profitability has rebounded (revenue +9.1% with improved gross/operating margins), and cash generation is strong (TTM operating cash flow ~$36.1B; free cash flow ~$23.4B with ~44.9% growth). This is tempered by balance-sheet leverage still being somewhat elevated (debt-to-equity ~1.12) and the company’s history of volatile, cycle-driven earnings and cash flow.
Income Statement
67PositiveBalance Sheet
58NeutralCash Flow
73Positive| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 238.12B | 189.34B | 189.19B | 210.13B | 241.39B | 157.74B |
| Gross Profit | 57.14B | 33.53B | 30.24B | 48.07B | 55.10B | 22.86B |
| EBITDA | 47.49B | 30.73B | 27.97B | 43.50B | 32.35B | 32.55B |
| Net Income | 9.02B | 55.00M | 381.00M | 15.24B | -2.49B | 7.57B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 303.72B | 278.53B | 282.23B | 280.29B | 288.12B | 287.27B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 43.05B | 36.71B | 34.52B | 28.59B | 23.91B | 26.22B |
| Total Debt | 69.62B | 84.27B | 71.55B | 63.08B | 55.49B | 69.79B |
| Total Liabilities | 224.13B | 204.53B | 203.91B | 194.80B | 205.13B | 196.83B |
| Stockholders Equity | 62.17B | 53.05B | 59.25B | 70.28B | 67.55B | 75.46B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 23.39B | 11.27B | 12.00B | 17.75B | 28.86B | 12.72B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 36.14B | 24.49B | 27.30B | 32.04B | 40.93B | 23.61B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -10.44B | -11.50B | -13.25B | -14.87B | -13.71B | -5.69B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -17.64B | -15.88B | -7.30B | -13.36B | -28.02B | -18.08B |
BP Technical Analysis
Price Trends
Market Momentum
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BP, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 50.39 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 48.48, above the 50-day MA of 45.96, and above the 200-day MA of 42.39, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.41 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 63.21 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 56.17 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for BP.
BP Risk Analysis
BP disclosed 20 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. BP reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
- Finance & Corporate1
- Tech & Innovation3
- Legal & Regulatory2
- Production8
- Ability to Sell1
- Macro & Political5
Latest Risks Added
0 New RisksBP Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
XOM82Outperform
CVX79Outperform
EQNR79Outperform
SHEL79Outperform
E78.2Outperform- BP68Neutral
Financial Indicators
| Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XOM | 82Outperform | $769.96B | 19.24 | 15.64% | 2.20% | 20.21% | 40.82% |
| CVX | 79Outperform | $465.33B | 17.18 | 14.30% | 2.99% | 22.05% | 92.81% |
| EQNR | 79Outperform | $116.18B | 10.11 | 27.45% | 3.12% | 12.89% | 129.13% |
| SHEL | 79Outperform | $307.19B | 9.27 | 18.01% | 2.78% | 18.22% | 136.13% |
| E | 78Outperform | $88.93B | 10.40 | 15.47% | 4.01% | 9.45% | 204.92% |
| BP | 68Neutral | $129.89B | 24.36 | 15.61% | 4.00% | 26.40% | 473.45% |
| Sector * | 65Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% |
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
| Show on chart | Ticker | Company Name | Price | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BP | BP plc. | 50.39 | 17.21 | 51.88% | |
| CVX | Chevron | 235.52 | 87.32 | 58.92% | |
| E | Eni S.P.A. | 60.80 | 25.43 | 71.89% | |
| XOM | Exxon Mobil Corp. | 187.25 | 76.69 | 69.37% | |
| SHEL | Shell Plc | 108.69 | 36.97 | 51.55% | |
| EQNR | Equinor | 48.75 | 25.62 | 110.76% |
BP Corporate Events
BP Uses Surging Q3 2026 Cash Flow to Cut Debt and Advance Deepwater Horizon Commitments
BP p.l.c. is a global integrated oil and gas company headquartered in London, active across upstream production, refining, trading and mobility and convenience services. Its strategy emphasizes disciplined investment, portfolio simplification and rob...
BP’s Q3 2026 Form 6-K Shows Surging Profits and Faster Balance Sheet Repair
In an October 2026 Form 6-K filing covering the period ended 30 September 2026, BP reported significantly stronger financial performance, with profit attributable to shareholders rising to $4.7 billion in the third quarter from $1.2 billion a year ea...
BP Signals Lower Net Debt and Major Impairments in Third-Quarter 2026 Trading Update
BP issued a trading statement on 13 October 2026 outlining current estimates for its third-quarter 2026 performance, ahead of final results due on 30 October 2026. Reported upstream production is expected to be broadly stable at 2,190 to 2,240mboe/d...
BP updates total voting rights and share capital as of 30 September 2026
As of 30 September 2026, BP reported an issued share capital of 15,705,666,807 ordinary shares excluding treasury shares and 12,706,252 preference shares, each class carrying defined voting rights per share and per nominal capital. The company also h...
BP details September executive share dealings and sets sterling payout for Q2 2026 dividend
BP p.l.c. disclosed several share transactions by senior executives during September 2026, alongside confirming the sterling amount of its second-quarter interim dividend. These announcements form part of regular regulatory reporting to U.S. investor...
BP Confirms Ian Tyler as Chair and Plans Senior Board Transition
On 2 September 2026, BP announced that Ian Tyler has been appointed Chair of the company following an extensive search, moving from his previous role as Interim Chair, which he assumed on 26 May 2026. Tyler, a non‑executive director since April...
BP executives report August 2026 share acquisitions under company incentive plans
BP disclosed a series of insider share transactions for the period to 31 August 2026, detailing equity dealings by senior executives as part of routine regulatory reporting. The filings highlight ongoing use of company share plans, underscoring align...
BP Updates Total Voting Rights and Share Capital as of 31 August 2026
As at 31 August 2026, BP reported issued share capital of 15,704,544,735 ordinary shares, excluding 781,768,259 shares held in treasury, each ordinary share carrying one vote alongside 12,706,252 preference shares with enhanced voting rights. The com...
BP Files Form 6‑K Detailing Stronger Earnings for First Half 2026
BP p.l.c. has filed a Form 6‑K with the US Securities and Exchange Commission for August 2026, covering its results and disclosures for the six‑month period ended 30 June 2026. The report is incorporated by reference into multiple existin...
BP boosts Q2 2026 earnings as new CEO accelerates portfolio reshaping
BP reported stronger financial performance for the second quarter of 2026, with underlying replacement cost profit rising to $5.7 billion, $2.5 billion higher than the prior quarter, and operating cash flow of $10.9 billion despite a $1.0 billion wor...
BP Updates Total Voting Rights and Share Capital as of July 31, 2026
As of 31 July 2026, BP reported that its issued share capital consisted of 15,704,171,728 ordinary shares with one vote each and 12,706,252 preference shares carrying two votes for every £5 in nominal capital. The company also held 782,141,266 o...
BP Executives Reinvest Dividends into Company Shares in July 2026
On 1 July 2026, several senior executives at BP, including chief financial officer and director Kate Thomson, EVP upstream Gordon Birrell, EVP people, culture & communications and chief human resources and communications officer Kerry Dryburgh, a...
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.
Date of analysis: Nov 01, 2026