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Blue Bird
(NASDAQ:BLBD)
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Rating:78Outperform
Price Target:
$88.00
▲(15.49% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/06/26
BLBD scores well primarily on improved financial performance (profitability, deleveraging, and solid free cash flow) and a strongly positive earnings update with raised guidance and identifiable growth initiatives. Technicals are supportive but neutral in momentum, while valuation appears fair (P/E ~17.7) with no dividend yield to add downside support.
Positive Factors
Stronger balance sheet and deleveraging
The company has materially repaired its balance sheet, reducing leverage to a modest level and rebuilding equity to roughly $655M. That structural improvement increases financial flexibility for capex, M&A, and cyclical downturns, lowering refinancing and solvency risk over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Gross-margin compression from consolidation
Accounting and consolidation effects have reduced reported margins even as absolute EBITDA rose. If acquisition-related dilution of percentage margins persists before synergies are realized, structural margin metrics could remain depressed relative to prior company-level margins for several quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Stronger balance sheet and deleveraging
The company has materially repaired its balance sheet, reducing leverage to a modest level and rebuilding equity to roughly $655M. That structural improvement increases financial flexibility for capex, M&A, and cyclical downturns, lowering refinancing and solvency risk over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
Blue Bird Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Analyzes income from different business areas, highlighting which segments drive growth and profitability, and where there might be challenges.
Analyzes income from different business areas, highlighting which segments drive growth and profitability, and where there might be challenges.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyBlue Bird (BLBD) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.35B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)427.64K
Price to Earnings (P/E)17.7
Beta (1Y)0.91
Revenue Growth10.09%
EPS Growth25.05%
CountryUS
Employees2,012
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryAuto - Manufacturers
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)8.45
Shares Outstanding31,646,590
10 Day Avg. Volume421,891
30 Day Avg. Volume427,639
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.64
Price to Book (P/B)7.23
Price to Sales (P/S)1.25
P/FCF Ratio12.04
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$90.67Price Target Upside18.99% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)4.77
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.75B
Blue Bird Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Blue Bird Corporation specializes in the design, engineering, production, and distribution of school buses and related components. The company serves customers across the United States, Canada, and international markets, structured into two primar...
How the Company Makes Money
Blue Bird primarily makes money by selling completed school buses and bus body/chassis configurations to customers (typically school districts and private fleet operators) through its dealer/distributor channel. Revenue is largely driven by unit v...
Blue Bird Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 05, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Dec 14, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a strongly positive operational and financial performance with record Q3 adjusted EBITDA, revenue growth year-to-date, raised full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance, robust liquidity, and strategic growth moves (Micro Bird consolidation and a major collaboration with Ford). Headwinds discussed were largely related to acquisition consolidation effects (margin compression), seasonal working capital build, policy/tariff volatility, and the execution and investment risk associated with entering the Class 5-6 chassis market. Overall, the highlights (record profitability, guidance raise, strategic expansions, EV leadership, and solid liquidity) substantially outweigh the manageable lowlights.Positive Updates
Revenue and Unit Sales Outperformance
Q3 consolidated revenue of $517 million, up $119 million year-over-year; sold 3,525 buses in Q3 (includes 1,235 Micro Bird units). Year-to-date revenue grew 12% to $1.2 billion with 7,808 units sold (+916 units YoY).
Negative Updates
Gross Margin Compression from Consolidation
Reported gross margin for Q3 was 20%, down 160 basis points YoY; Micro Bird consolidation accounted for approximately a 180 basis point reduction to margins, compressing adjusted EBITDA percentage from a pre-consolidation record 16.1% to a reported 13.8%.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue and Unit Sales Outperformance
Q3 consolidated revenue of $517 million, up $119 million year-over-year; sold 3,525 buses in Q3 (includes 1,235 Micro Bird units). Year-to-date revenue grew 12% to $1.2 billion with 7,808 units sold (+916 units YoY).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Blue Bird raised and clarified fiscal and multi‑year guidance: for fiscal 2026 it expects revenue of $1.74–$1.76 billion (≈$1.75B midpoint) with adjusted EBITDA of $245–$250 million (raised to $247M, ≈14% margin) and adjusted free cash flow of $125–$135 million (roughly 50% of adjusted EBITDA); Q4 is expected at about 14% adjusted EBITDA margin despite a small unit reduction, and up to $5M of extraordinary CapEx (Blue Bird’s 50% fiscal ’26 portion) is anticipated related to the new plant (DOE MESC grant partially funds it). Looking out, pro forma 2026/27 (with full Micro Bird consolidation) implies ≈$2.0B revenue and ≈$260M adjusted EBITDA (~13%), the new Ford/Detroit chassis initiative carries a 2027 investment of ≈$90M (≈$50M CapEx) with a path to ~10,000 units by 2030 and >$100M long‑run EBITDA at 14–15%, medium‑term EBITDA target of ~$275M (≈13.5%), and a long‑term objective of roughly $3.0B revenue and $400–$500M+ adjusted EBITDA (≈14.5–15%+); management also plans to refinance/expand the credit facility by year‑end 2026, maintain leverage <2.0x adjusted EBITDA, and has ≈$90M remaining on its buyback program.Blue Bird Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
82
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
79
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Sep 2025 | Sep 2024 | Sep 2023 | Sep 2022 | Sep 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.61B | 1.48B | 1.35B | 1.13B | 800.64M | 684.00M |
| Gross Profit | 331.66M | 303.51M | 256.16M | 138.85M | 36.55M | 72.14M |
| EBITDA | 82.18M | 192.35M | 152.34M | 59.80M | -24.33M | 21.15M |
| Net Income | 281.81M | 127.72M | 105.55M | 23.81M | -45.76M | -289.00K |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.17B | 625.25M | 524.89M | 417.77M | 366.13M | 356.02M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 116.82M | 229.31M | 127.69M | 78.99M | 10.48M | 11.71M |
| Total Debt | 115.75M | 90.32M | 95.97M | 131.91M | 174.48M | 220.82M |
| Total Liabilities | 511.63M | 369.84M | 365.33M | 377.77M | 364.74M | 388.68M |
| Stockholders Equity | 654.89M | 255.41M | 159.56M | 40.00M | 1.38M | -32.66M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 224.16M | 153.34M | 95.85M | 111.41M | -30.89M | -66.45M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 264.83M | 176.21M | 111.11M | 119.93M | -24.44M | -54.24M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -90.84M | -23.87M | -15.81M | -8.52M | -6.45M | -11.31M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -183.66M | -50.72M | -46.60M | -42.90M | 29.66M | 32.75M |
Blue Bird Technical Analysis
Negative
76.20
Price Trends
74.92
Negative
68.66
Negative
60.63
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.77
Positive
32.05
Neutral
49.38
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BLBD, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 76.2 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 76.36, above the 50-day MA of 74.92, and above the 200-day MA of 60.63, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.77 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 32.05 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 49.38 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for BLBD.
Blue Bird Risk Analysis
Blue Bird disclosed 41 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Blue Bird reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Blue Bird Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $2.35B | 17.71 | 50.84% | ― | 10.09% | 25.05% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
56 Neutral | $77.97B | 44.43 | 3.04% | 0.80% | -1.11% | -67.59% | |
55 Neutral | $40.42B | -15.06 | -3.53% | 4.73% | 1.63% | -158.78% | |
54 Neutral | $58.54B | -7.89 | -18.90% | 4.18% | 1.47% | -315.47% | |
52 Neutral | $22.04B | -5.90 | -67.49% | ― | 14.21% | 20.20% | |
49 Neutral | $2.88B | -0.58 | -440.92% | ― | 61.03% | -5.36% |
* Industrials Sector Average
BLBD
Blue Bird
76.93
24.62
47.07%
F
Ford Motor
14.13
3.38
31.45%
GM
General Motors
89.16
36.69
69.93%
HMC
Honda Motor Company
30.60
-0.22
-0.70%
LCID
Lucid Group
6.70
-15.00
-69.12%
RIVN
Rivian Automotive
15.56
3.49
28.91%
Blue Bird Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Blue Bird Expands via Ford Chassis Collaboration Deal
Positive
Aug 5, 2026
On August 3, 2026, Blue Bird entered into agreements to acquire key assets of Detroit Chassis LLC and to collaborate with Ford Motor Company on the next generation F-53 and F-59 commercial stripped chassis. The deal includes purchasing Detroit Cha...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
Blue Bird boosts guidance on strong Q3 results
Positive
Aug 5, 2026
On August 5, 2026, Blue Bird reported fiscal 2026 third-quarter net sales of $517.2 million, GAAP net income of $185.3 million and adjusted EBITDA of $71.4 million, with 3,525 buses sold and a 14% EBITDA margin. The results were driven largely by ...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Blue Bird Transfers Pension Obligations via Annuity Purchase
Neutral
May 18, 2026
On May 12, 2026, Blue Bird Body Company, as sponsor of its frozen defined benefit pension plan, agreed to purchase group annuity contracts from Pacific Life to transfer future benefit obligations and administration for 2,044 participants, without ...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Blue Bird Boosts Outlook After Strong Q2 2026 Results
Positive
May 6, 2026
On May 6, 2026, Blue Bird reported fiscal 2026 second-quarter results showing net sales of $352.6 million, down 1.7% year-on-year due to fewer production days, while GAAP net income rose to $29.3 million and adjusted EBITDA reached a record second...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.