Blue Bird AI Stock Analysis
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Blue Bird (BLBD) AI Stock Analysis
Blue Bird
(NASDAQ:BLBD)
BLBD scores well on fundamentals and outlook: financial performance reflects a clear profitability and cash-flow turnaround, and the latest earnings call reinforced momentum with raised guidance and strategic expansion plans. The score is held back by weak technical signals (price below key moving averages with negative MACD) and ongoing execution/sustainability risks tied to consolidation-driven margin compression, working-capital volatility, and the sizable upcoming investment program.
Blue Bird Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Revenue by SegmentAnalyzes income from different business areas, highlighting which segments drive growth and profitability, and where there might be challenges.
Bus revenue is the clear growth engine, accelerating through 2024–mid‑2025 on higher ASPs, greater alt‑power mix and the MicroBird JV, while Parts delivers steady, margin‑friendly gains tied to an aging fleet and pricing actions. Management’s April consolidation will lift reported revenue but dilute near‑term adjusted EBITDA margin, and production capacity remains the gating constraint—so focus on backlog conversion, EV delivery cadence and free‑cash‑flow trends (not just top‑line) to judge whether growth will sustainably translate into profits.
The FlyBlue Bird (BLBD) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
- Market Cap
- $1.80B
- Dividend Yield
- ―
- Average Volume (3M)
- 552.18K
- Price to Earnings (P/E)
- 6.8
- Beta (1Y)
- 0.71
- Revenue Growth
- 13.46%
- EPS Growth
- 133.27%
- Country
- US
- Employees
- 2,010
- Sector
- Industrials
- Sector Strength
- 63
- Industry
- Auto - Manufacturers
Blue Bird Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Blue Bird Corporation specializes in the design, engineering, production, and distribution of school buses and related components. The company serves customers across the United States, Canada, and international markets, structured into two primary d...
How the Company Makes Money
Blue Bird primarily makes money by selling school buses to customers (typically school districts and school transportation contractors) through its sales and distribution channels; revenue is recognized from the delivery of these vehicles and is driv...
Blue Bird Earnings Call Summary
The call conveyed a strongly positive operational and financial performance with record Q3 adjusted EBITDA, revenue growth year-to-date, raised full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance, robust liquidity, and strategic growth moves (Micro Bird consolidation and a major collaboration with Ford). Headwinds discussed were largely related to acquisition consolidation effects (margin compression), seasonal working capital build, policy/tariff volatility, and the execution and investment risk associated with entering the Class 5-6 chassis market. Overall, the highlights (record profitability, guidance raise, strategic expansions, EV leadership, and solid liquidity) substantially outweigh the manageable lowlights.
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Negative Updates
Company Guidance
Blue Bird raised and clarified fiscal and multi‑year guidance: for fiscal 2026 it expects revenue of $1.74–$1.76 billion (≈$1.75B midpoint) with adjusted EBITDA of $245–$250 million (raised to $247M, ≈14% margin) and adjusted free cash flow of $125–$135 million (roughly 50% of adjusted EBITDA); Q4 is expected at about 14% adjusted EBITDA margin despite a small unit reduction, and up to $5M of extraordinary CapEx (Blue Bird’s 50% fiscal ’26 portion) is anticipated related to the new plant (DOE MESC grant partially funds it). Looking out, pro forma 2026/27 (with full Micro Bird consolidation) implies ≈$2.0B revenue and ≈$260M adjusted EBITDA (~13%), the new Ford/Detroit chassis initiative carries a 2027 investment of ≈$90M (≈$50M CapEx) with a path to ~10,000 units by 2030 and >$100M long‑run EBITDA at 14–15%, medium‑term EBITDA target of ~$275M (≈13.5%), and a long‑term objective of roughly $3.0B revenue and $400–$500M+ adjusted EBITDA (≈14.5–15%+); management also plans to refinance/expand the credit facility by year‑end 2026, maintain leverage <2.0x adjusted EBITDA, and has ≈$90M remaining on its buyback program.
Blue Bird Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Strong turnaround profile: consistent revenue growth into TTM, healthy profitability (TTM gross margin ~21%, net margin ~17%), and robust free cash flow generation (~$224M TTM) with FCF roughly matching net income. Balance sheet has improved with modest leverage (debt-to-equity ~0.18) and rebuilt equity, but prior-cycle volatility (losses and weak cash flow as recently as 2022) raises sustainability risk through a downturn.
Income Statement
82Very PositiveBalance Sheet
74PositiveCash Flow
79Positive| Breakdown | TTM | Sep 2025 | Sep 2024 | Sep 2023 | Sep 2022 | Sep 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.61B | 1.48B | 1.35B | 1.13B | 800.64M | 684.00M |
| Gross Profit | 331.66M | 303.51M | 256.16M | 138.85M | 36.55M | 72.14M |
| EBITDA | 79.93M | 192.35M | 152.34M | 59.80M | -24.33M | 21.15M |
| Net Income | 281.81M | 127.72M | 105.55M | 23.81M | -45.76M | -289.00K |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.17B | 625.25M | 524.89M | 417.77M | 366.13M | 356.02M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 116.82M | 229.31M | 127.69M | 78.99M | 10.48M | 11.71M |
| Total Debt | 115.75M | 90.32M | 95.97M | 131.91M | 174.48M | 220.82M |
| Total Liabilities | 511.63M | 369.84M | 365.33M | 377.77M | 364.74M | 388.68M |
| Stockholders Equity | 654.89M | 255.41M | 159.56M | 40.00M | 1.38M | -32.66M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 153.14M | 153.34M | 95.85M | 111.41M | -30.89M | -66.45M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 180.50M | 176.21M | 111.11M | 119.93M | -24.44M | -54.24M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -77.33M | -23.87M | -15.81M | -8.52M | -6.45M | -11.31M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -159.40M | -50.72M | -46.60M | -42.90M | 29.66M | 32.75M |
Blue Bird Technical Analysis
Price Trends
Market Momentum
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BLBD, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 55.45 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 57.65, below the 50-day MA of 58.44, and below the 200-day MA of 63.54, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of 0.10 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 48.52 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 50.70 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for BLBD.
Blue Bird Risk Analysis
Blue Bird disclosed 41 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Blue Bird reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Latest Risks Added
3 New RisksBlue Bird Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
- BLBD77Outperform
GM69Neutral
F45Neutral
WKHS44Neutral
XOS40Underperform
GP39Underperform
Financial Indicators
| Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BLBD | 77Outperform | $1.80B | 6.81 | 76.19% | ― | 13.46% | 133.27% |
| GM | 69Neutral | $74.81B | 20.11 | 6.32% | 0.78% | -0.26% | -11.45% |
| Sector * | 63Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% |
| F | 45Neutral | $49.04B | -6.25 | -21.35% | 4.90% | -1.38% | -252.96% |
| WKHS | 44Neutral | $37.38M | -0.53 | -253.36% | ― | 112.11% | 96.59% |
| XOS | 40Underperform | $32.56M | -1.48 | -80.31% | ― | -26.88% | 72.36% |
| GP | 39Underperform | $951.83K | -0.00 | 194.59% | ― | -16.96% | 88.81% |
* Industrials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
| Show on chart | Ticker | Company Name | Price | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BLBD | Blue Bird Corporation | 55.45 | 4.28 | 8.36% | |
| F | Ford Motor Company | 11.90 | -0.70 | -5.52% | |
| GM | General Motors Company | 86.25 | 16.33 | 23.36% | |
| WKHS | Workhorse Group | 3.02 | -4.41 | -59.34% | |
| GP | GreenPower Motor Company Inc. | 1.23 | -6.20 | -83.43% | |
| XOS | Xos, Inc. | 2.29 | -0.14 | -5.76% |
Blue Bird Corporate Events
Blue Bird Expands Liquidity with New Credit Facility
PositiveOn October 6, 2026, Blue Bird Corporation announced that it closed a new $600 million senior secured credit facility, replacing its prior $250 million package and extending debt maturity from November 2028 to September 2031. The financing, comprising...
Blue Bird Details Micro Bird Acquisition Share Resale Plan
NeutralOn October 1, 2026, Blue Bird filed a prospectus supplement with the Securities and Exchange Commission covering the potential resale by a selling stockholder of up to 2,702,180 shares of its common stock. These shares are issuable upon exchange or s...
Blue Bird Expands via Ford Chassis Collaboration Deal
PositiveOn August 3, 2026, Blue Bird entered into agreements to acquire key assets of Detroit Chassis LLC and to collaborate with Ford Motor Company on the next generation F-53 and F-59 commercial stripped chassis. The deal includes purchasing Detroit Chassi...
Blue Bird boosts guidance on strong Q3 results
PositiveOn August 5, 2026, Blue Bird reported fiscal 2026 third-quarter net sales of $517.2 million, GAAP net income of $185.3 million and adjusted EBITDA of $71.4 million, with 3,525 buses sold and a 14% EBITDA margin. The results were driven largely by the...
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.
Date of analysis: Oct 06, 2026