Blue Bird (BLBD) AI Stock Analysis

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Blue Bird

(NASDAQ:BLBD)

73Outperform

Blue Bird scores well overall due to strong financial performance and strategic positioning in the alternative power vehicle market. Key strengths include robust revenue growth and a strong backlog, though reliance on liabilities and tariff challenges pose risks. Technical indicators suggest caution due to potential overbought conditions, while the valuation remains reasonable.

Positive Factors

Earnings

FQ2 saw record revenue of $359mn, 1% ahead of expectations and record EBITDA of $49.2mn, 4% ahead of consensus.

Financial Health

The company's elevated margin profile with mid teens adjusted EBITDA margins is a strong indicator of financial health.

Operational Performance

Blue Bird beat and maintained outlook as revamped operations drive outperformance.

Negative Factors

EV Funding Uncertainty

Heightened uncertainty over federal subsidies is a significant concern affecting the company's performance.

Tariffs Impact

The 145% tariffs on China severely impact the firm’s EV kits from Accelera, with the potential to add 10% to the price of an EV bus.

Valuation Concerns

Concerns around funding for EV school buses continue to weigh on the stock, with Blue Bird trading at a historically low valuation.

Blue Bird (BLBD) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Market Cap

$1.29B

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)492.25K

Price to Earnings (P/E)12.6

Beta (1Y)1.08

Revenue Growth7.57%

EPS Growth34.82%

CountryUS

Employees1,945

SectorConsumer Cyclical

Sector Strength75

IndustryAuto - Manufacturers

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.96

Shares Outstanding31,565,453

10 Day Avg. Volume486,265

30 Day Avg. Volume492,248

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio4.62

Price to Book (P/B)6.80

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio9.95

Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.90

Enterprise Value/Revenue0.22

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.58

Enterprise Value/Ebitda1.96

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$49.60

Price Target Upside20.24% Upside

Rating ConsensusStrong Buy

Number of Analyst Covering6

Blue Bird Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionBlue Bird Corporation designs, engineers, manufactures, and sells school buses and related parts in the United States, Canada, and internationally. It operates through two segments, Bus and Parts. The company offers Type C, Type D, and specialty buses; and alternative fuel applications through its propane powered, gasoline powered, compressed natural gas powered, and electric powered school buses. Blue Bird Corporation sells its products through a network of dealers, as well as directly to fleet operators, the United States government, and state governments; and maintains a parts distribution center. Blue Bird Corporation was formerly known as Hennessy Capital Acquisition Corp. The company was founded in 1927 and is headquartered in Macon, Georgia.

How the Company Makes MoneyBlue Bird Corporation generates revenue primarily through the sale of school buses and associated parts and services. The company's key revenue streams include the manufacturing and direct sale of new school buses to school districts and transportation contractors. Additionally, Blue Bird offers aftermarket parts and services, which provide ongoing support and maintenance for their buses, further contributing to their revenue. The company also benefits from strategic partnerships with engine and component suppliers, allowing them to offer a range of fuel options and configurations, appealing to environmentally conscious customers and those looking for cost-effective transportation solutions. Blue Bird's focus on innovation, particularly in alternative fuels, positions them to capitalize on trends toward sustainability and cleaner transportation solutions, enhancing their earnings potential.

Blue Bird Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Blue Bird has demonstrated significant financial improvement, with strong revenue and profit growth, improved margins, and effective cash flow management. The balance sheet is solid with a decrease in leverage and high return on equity. While the company shows financial strength, maintaining prudence in debt management is crucial for long-term sustainability.

Income Statement

Very Positive

Blue Bird shows a robust revenue growth trajectory with substantial improvements in profitability. The gross profit margin is healthy at 18.81% for TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months). Net profit margin has significantly improved to 8.05%, indicating effective cost management. Revenue growth rate from 2023 to TTM is impressive at 18.62%. Both EBIT and EBITDA margins have strengthened, indicating operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The balance sheet exhibits a strong equity position with an equity ratio of 33.57% for TTM. Debt-to-equity ratio has improved, reflecting reduced leverage risk. Return on equity is strong at 60.18%, showcasing high profitability relative to shareholder equity. However, the company needs to maintain a cautious approach to debt management to sustain its financial health.

Cash Flow

Very Positive

Cash flow metrics are robust, with free cash flow showing notable growth of 12.44% from 2023 to TTM. Operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 1.27, indicating solid cash generation relative to net earnings. Free cash flow to net income ratio is also favorable at 1.16, suggesting efficient conversion of profits into cash flow.

TTM	Sep 2024	Sep 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
1.34B	1.35B	1.13B	800.64M	684.00M	879.22M
	Gross Profit
252.62M	256.16M	138.85M	36.55M	72.14M	96.20M
	EBIT
134.42M	139.33M	51.66M	-40.70M	6.52M	21.99M
	EBITDA
153.83M	152.34M	60.92M	-23.23M	21.95M	37.14M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
108.12M	105.55M	23.81M	-41.60M	-787.00K	8.97M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
93.10M	127.69M	78.99M	10.48M	11.71M	44.51M
	Total Assets
456.48M	524.89M	417.77M	366.13M	356.02M	317.42M
	Total Debt
98.60M	95.97M	131.91M	172.33M	215.29M	181.26M
	Net Debt
5.50M	-31.71M	52.93M	161.85M	203.58M	136.76M
	Total Liabilities
350.69M	387.73M	377.77M	364.74M	388.68M	370.64M
	Stockholders Equity
105.79M	159.56M	40.00M	1.38M	-32.66M	-53.23M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
120.35M	95.85M	111.41M	-30.89M	-66.45M	-15.51M
	Operating Cash Flow
137.31M	111.11M	119.93M	-24.44M	-54.24M	3.46M
	Investing Cash Flow
-18.00M	-15.81M	-8.52M	-6.45M	-11.31M	-18.80M
	Financing Cash Flow
-60.48M	-46.60M	-42.90M	29.66M	32.75M	-11.11M

Blue Bird Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Positive

Last Price41.25

Price Trends

50DMA

35.32

Positive

100DMA

36.48

Positive

200DMA

40.74

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

1.67

Negative

RSI

70.36

Negative

STOCH

92.04

Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BLBD, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 41.25 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 37.64, above the 50-day MA of 35.32, and above the 200-day MA of 40.74, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.67 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 70.36 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 92.04 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for BLBD.

Blue Bird Risk Analysis

Blue Bird disclosed 41 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Blue Bird reported the most risks in the “Production” category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Blue Bird Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (61)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
BLBD	73 Outperform	$1.29B	12.61	73.02%	―	7.57%	34.82%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$6.97B	11.38	2.88%	3.90%	2.64%	-22.07%
CENN	48 Neutral	$30.87M	―	-32.49%	―	36.58%	-62.75%
WKHS	39 Underperform	$8.22M	―	-188.79%	―	-53.55%	65.29%
LVWR	39 Underperform	$236.14M	―	-63.74%	―	-30.76%	20.33%
EVTV	35 Underperform	$5.82M	―	-42.59%	―	-34.68%	34.15%
FFAI	27 Underperform	$110.31M	―	-186.28%	―	8.52%	98.75%

* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average

Performance Comparison

BLBD

Blue Bird

41.25

-14.30

-25.74%

WKHS

Workhorse Group

0.87

-57.75

-98.52%

CENN

Cenntro Electric Group

1.02

-0.90

-46.87%

EVTV

Envirotech Vehicles

0.22

-1.26

-85.14%

FFAI

Faraday Future Intelligent Electric

1.13

-70.87

-98.43%

LVWR

LiveWire Group

1.16

-5.34

-82.15%

Blue Bird Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2025

(Q2-2025)

% Change Since: 9.30%|

Next Earnings Date:Aug 06, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

Blue Bird reported a record-breaking quarter in terms of revenue and adjusted EBITDA, driven by strong demand and effective cost management. The company maintained its leadership in alternative power vehicles and debuted a promising new commercial chassis. However, significant tariff impacts pose challenges, particularly for EV production, potentially delaying some builds. Despite these challenges, Blue Bird's strong backlog and strategic pricing actions position it well for continued stability.

Q2-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Record Quarterly Revenue and Profit

Blue Bird achieved record quarterly revenue of $359 million and a record adjusted EBITDA of $49 million, marking a 6.5% improvement over the previous year's second quarter.

Strong Backlog and Demand

The company ended the quarter with nearly 5,000 units in backlog, representing over six months of production, totaling $770 million in revenue.

Lead Position in Alternative Power Vehicles

Blue Bird maintained its leadership in the alternative power vehicles segment with a 57% mix of unit sales, significantly higher than competitors.

Commercial Chassis Debut

Blue Bird debuted its commercial chassis at the Work Truck Show, receiving overwhelming positive feedback, with a planned launch in 2026.

Negative Updates

Impact of Tariffs on EV Production

New tariffs, particularly a 145% tariff on Chinese imports, are affecting Blue Bird's EV kit costs, potentially leading to a 10% price increase on EV buses.

Decrease in Adjusted Free Cash Flow

Adjusted free cash flow decreased by $35 million compared to the previous year, mainly due to increased tax expenses.

Potential Delay in EV Production

Due to tariff impacts, Blue Bird may intentionally push some EV builds to fiscal 2026, affecting the planned production schedule.

Company Guidance

In the Blue Bird fiscal 2025 second quarter earnings call, the company reported record quarterly revenue and profit, with revenue reaching $359 million and adjusted EBITDA at $49 million, representing a 14% margin. The company maintained its full-year guidance despite challenges such as tariff impacts from the current administration's policies. Blue Bird sold 2,295 buses, including 265 electric vehicles (EVs), which contributed to its strong order intake. The firm's backlog included 4,900 buses, translating to $770 million in revenue. Average selling prices for buses increased by $4,000 per unit over the previous year, driven by higher bus and parts margins, although adjusted free cash flow decreased by $35 million year-over-year, attributed to increased tax expenses. The company also highlighted its first half fiscal year results, including a record revenue of $673 million and adjusted EBITDA of $95 million. Despite the challenges posed by new tariffs, particularly those affecting EVs, Blue Bird's strategic pricing actions and robust demand have positioned it well to achieve its fiscal 2025 targets.

Blue Bird Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures

Blue Bird Reports Record Q2 Sales and Income

Positive

May 7, 2025

On May 7, 2025, Blue Bird Corporation announced its fiscal 2025 second quarter results, reporting record net sales of $359 million and a GAAP net income of $26 million. The company reaffirmed its fiscal year 2025 guidance, highlighting a strong market demand with a backlog of approximately 4,900 units and a significant push in electric-powered buses, with 265 units delivered in the quarter. The results underscore Blue Bird’s robust operational performance and its leadership in the alternative-powered school bus market.

Spark’s Take on BLBD Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, BLBD is a Outperform.

Blue Bird’s overall score is driven by strong financial performance and strategic initiatives in the electric vehicle segment. While technical indicators show some bearish trends, the company’s robust backlog and reasonable valuation provide a solid foundation. The recent appointment of a seasoned CEO and strategic focus on EVs further enhance the growth outlook, despite potential challenges from federal policy changes.

To see Spark’s full report on BLBD stock, click here.

Glossary

OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.

NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.

UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.