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LiveWire Group
(NYSE:LVWR)
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Rating:46Neutral
Price Target:
$2.00
▲(45.99% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/26/26
The score is pulled down primarily by weak financial performance—negative gross profit, very large operating/net losses, heavy ongoing cash burn, and elevated leverage with a thin equity base. Technicals provide some offset with improving price trends and neutral-to-positive momentum indicators, but valuation support is limited given continued unprofitability and no dividend yield data.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
Revenue growth indicates LiveWire is expanding sales despite operating in an early-stage electric motorcycle market. Continued top-line progress can support greater production scale, broader customer adoption, and eventual operating leverage if unit economics improve.
Negative Factors
Persistent Unprofitability
Negative gross profit shows that LiveWire has not yet demonstrated sustainable product-level economics, while substantial operating and net losses indicate limited operating leverage. Without meaningful margin improvement, revenue growth may continue requiring significant external funding.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue Growth
Revenue growth indicates LiveWire is expanding sales despite operating in an early-stage electric motorcycle market. Continued top-line progress can support greater production scale, broader customer adoption, and eventual operating leverage if unit economics improve.
Read all positive factors
LiveWire Group Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Geography
Breaks revenue into regions so you can see where demand is strongest and where the company is exposed to market or regulatory risks. For an EV-focused manufacturer, geographic splits reveal how well the company is penetrating key markets, benefiting from local incentives, and diversifying revenue beyond any single country.
Breaks revenue into regions so you can see where demand is strongest and where the company is exposed to market or regulatory risks. For an EV-focused manufacturer, geographic splits reveal how well the company is penetrating key markets, benefiting from local incentives, and diversifying revenue beyond any single country.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyLiveWire Group (LVWR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$328.66M
Dividend Yield2.07%
Average Volume (3M)328.33K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)2.43
Revenue Growth31.33%
EPS Growth12.63%
CountryUS
Employees151
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryAuto - Recreational Vehicles
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.36
Shares Outstanding205,412,460
10 Day Avg. Volume131,400
30 Day Avg. Volume328,335
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.61
Price to Book (P/B)19.56
Price to Sales (P/S)35.08
P/FCF Ratio-15.70
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.77
Enterprise Value/Revenue7.60
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit-512.27
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-5.37
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.27
Revenue Forecast (FY)$180.98M
LiveWire Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
LiveWire Group, Inc. specializes in the production of electric motorcycles, catering to markets across North America, Europe/Middle East/Africa, and Asia Pacific. The company markets its zero-emission two-wheelers under the LiveWire brand name. Fu...
How the Company Makes Money
LiveWire primarily makes money by selling electric motorcycles to customers, generating revenue from the sale of complete vehicles through its sales and distribution channels (including dealer networks and other commercial arrangements used to rea...
LiveWire Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 05, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 11, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Negative
The call presented a mixed picture: solid retail momentum (North America +14%, global +8), inventory normalization (-22% dealer inventory) and a clear strategic plan with cost-savings targets, product reintroductions (Sportster, Sprint) and P&A growth opportunities provide a constructive medium-term outlook. However, near-term financials are challenged — consolidated revenue and operating income declined sharply, EPS fell materially, margins were compressed by tariffs and mix, operating expenses rose, and operating cash flow deteriorated. The strategy and early operational improvements are encouraging, but significant near-term headwinds and execution risks remain.Positive Updates
Strong Retail Performance in North America and Global Growth
North American retail sales of new motorcycles increased 14% year-over-year (U.S. +16%, Canada -8) with ~24,000 motorcycles sold in Q1; global retail sales of new motorcycles grew 8% year-over-year with ~34,000 motorcycles retailed (10,000 outside North America).
Negative Updates
Consolidated Revenue and Operating Income Declines
Consolidated revenue fell 12% year-over-year in Q1; consolidated operating income dropped to $23 million from $160 million in Q1 2025.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Retail Performance in North America and Global Growth
North American retail sales of new motorcycles increased 14% year-over-year (U.S. +16%, Canada -8) with ~24,000 motorcycles sold in Q1; global retail sales of new motorcycles grew 8% year-over-year with ~34,000 motorcycles retailed (10,000 outside North America).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Harley‑Davidson reaffirmed full‑year 2026 guidance with HDMC retail units and wholesale units each expected at 130,000–135,000 and retail/wholesale largely one‑to‑one; it forecasts incremental tariff costs of $75–$90 million for 2026 (Q1 tariffs were $45M), HDMC operating income of +$10M to -$40M, HDFS operating income of $45–$60M, and a LiveWire operating loss of $70–$80M. Management reiterated a path to $350M+ EBITDA in 2027 driven by at least $150M of annual run‑rate cost saves (impacting 2027+), and set medium‑term targets of mid‑single‑digit retail unit growth, mid‑single‑digit P&A and A&L growth, gross margins approaching ~30%, operating expenses <20% of sales (vs 25% in 2025), and a 10%–12% EBITDA margin. Q1 results that framed the guidance included consolidated revenue down 12%, consolidated operating income $23M (Q1 EPS $0.22 vs $1.07 prior year), HDMC revenue $1.1B (-2%) with motorcycles $836M, HDMC gross profit 25.3% (vs 29.1%), HDFS revenue $112M (-54%) with operating income $22M, LiveWire revenue +87% with an $18M operating loss, global retail sales +8% (~34,000 units: North America +14%/~24,000; ex‑NA -4%/~10,000), wholesale shipments ~37,300 (-3%), dealer inventory down 22% YoY and ~2/3 of NA inventory current model year, net cash used in operations $228M (cash $1.8B), retail originations $671M (+14%), and gross financing receivables $2.5B (retail $1.3B; commercial $1.2B).LiveWire Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
18
Very Negative
Balance Sheet
28
Negative
Cash Flow
14
Very Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 33.45M | 25.67M | 26.63M | 38.02M | 46.83M | 35.81M |
| Gross Profit | -496.00K | -4.43M | -12.78M | -5.77M | 2.90M | -2.57M |
| EBITDA | -47.31M | -64.53M | -83.84M | -103.64M | -74.09M | -63.14M |
| Net Income | -72.58M | -75.11M | -93.92M | -109.55M | -78.94M | -68.29M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 103.83M | 146.41M | 147.96M | 266.15M | 351.81M | 61.95M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 39.92M | 82.78M | 64.44M | 167.90M | 265.24M | 2.67M |
| Total Debt | 77.62M | 75.97M | 799.00K | 1.94M | 3.23M | 9.37M |
| Total Liabilities | 109.36M | 100.38M | 32.84M | 60.28M | 45.01M | 42.03M |
| Stockholders Equity | -5.52M | 46.03M | 115.11M | 205.86M | 306.80M | 19.93M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -36.87M | -57.36M | -101.93M | -96.92M | -103.76M | -84.49M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -34.31M | -53.55M | -93.86M | -83.46M | -89.68M | -74.54M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -2.94M | -3.81M | -8.07M | -13.46M | -14.08M | -9.95M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 73.89M | 75.73M | -1.44M | -412.00K | 366.33M | 84.76M |
LiveWire Group Technical Analysis
Neutral
1.37
Price Trends
1.43
Positive
1.30
Positive
1.58
Positive
Market Momentum
0.07
Negative
51.43
Neutral
70.53
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For LVWR, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 1.37 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.61, below the 50-day MA of 1.43, and below the 200-day MA of 1.58, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.07 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 51.43 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 70.53 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for LVWR.
LiveWire Group Risk Analysis
LiveWire Group disclosed 91 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. LiveWire Group reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
LiveWire Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
68 Neutral | $43.51M | 11.09 | 17.21% | ― | -15.40% | ― | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
54 Neutral | $4.46B | -53.37 | -5.32% | 2.54% | 10.46% | -305.37% | |
54 Neutral | $3.34B | -16.11 | -25.30% | 4.62% | 9.46% | -37.29% | |
46 Neutral | $328.66M | -4.43 | -198.18% | 2.07% | 31.33% | 12.63% | |
44 Neutral | $4.79M | >-0.01 | -343.09% | ― | ― | ― | |
41 Neutral | $1.78M | ― | -20.77% | ― | 6.06% | -619.20% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
LVWR
LiveWire Group
1.60
-3.93
-71.07%
BC
Brunswick
68.85
2.01
3.00%
PII
Polaris
58.64
-6.20
-9.56%
VMAR
Vision Marine Technologies
7.33
-5,992.67
-99.88%
EZGO
EZGO Technologies
0.77
-549.73
-99.86%
MAMO
Massimo Group
1.05
-2.16
-67.34%
LiveWire Group Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesFinancial Disclosures
LiveWire Group appoints restructuring leadership amid transition
Negative
Oct 26, 2026
On October 21, 2026, Chief Executive Officer Karim Donnez resigned from LiveWire Group, Inc., and on October 22, 2026, the board appointed David Barse and Harley-Davidson executive Scott Nash as directors, while simultaneously dissolving its Confl...
Executive/Board Changes
LiveWire Adds Harley-Davidson Executive Matt Ryan to Board
Positive
Sep 3, 2026
On August 31, 2026, LiveWire Group, Inc. announced that Paul Krause resigned from its Board of Directors, marking the end of his tenure and creating a vacancy in the company’s governance structure. On September 1, 2026, the Board appointed M...
Business Operations and StrategyDelistings and Listing ChangesRegulatory Filings and ComplianceStock Split
LiveWire Group Faces NYSE Compliance and Listing Pressure
Negative
Jul 29, 2026
On July 23, 2026, LiveWire Group received formal notice from the New York Stock Exchange that its shares had fallen below the $1.00 minimum average closing price over the 30 trading days ended July 22, 2026, putting the company out of compliance w...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.