Biogen (BIIB) AI Stock Analysis

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Biogen

(NASDAQ:BIIB)

Rating:68Neutral

Price Target:―

Biogen's overall stock score reflects its solid financial stability and attractive valuation, despite revenue decline risks. The technical analysis suggests mixed momentum, while the earnings call highlights strong growth in new products but ongoing challenges in core segments.

Positive Factors

Competitive Advantage

Approval of subcutaneous maintenance dosing and a blood-based biomarker test could provide future competitive advantages.

Financial Performance

Biogen highlighted strong growth for Leqembi marking a 395% year-over-year increase and an 11% sequential growth from the previous quarter.

Market Expansion

The recent EU approval of Leqembi might help gain more traction.

Negative Factors

Growth Expectations

Leqembi's future sales guidance is below consensus expectations, indicating lower anticipated growth.

Market Concerns

The stock has experienced a significant pullback, decreasing by 21% this year and around 50% since its 52-week high, due to investor concerns over competitive pressures.

Product Sales

The disappointing news was the US Skyclarys and US Leqembi sales ramps remain subdued.

Biogen (BIIB) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$18.51B

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)1.64M

Price to Earnings (P/E)12.5

Beta (1Y)0.62

Revenue Growth1.25%

EPS Growth26.10%

CountryUS

Employees7,605

SectorHealthcare

Sector Strength42

IndustryDrug Manufacturers - General

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)3.02

Shares Outstanding146,527,830

10 Day Avg. Volume1,742,522

30 Day Avg. Volume1,641,223

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio-1.24

Price to Book (P/B)1.02

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio7.54

Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.15

Enterprise Value/Revenue0.56

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.99

Enterprise Value/Ebitda2.11

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$169.68

Price Target Upside34.87% Upside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering29

Biogen Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionBiogen Inc. discovers, develops, manufactures, and delivers therapies for treating neurological and neurodegenerative diseases. The company offers TECFIDERA, VUMERITY, AVONEX, PLEGRIDY, TYSABRI, and FAMPYRA for multiple sclerosis (MS); SPINRAZA for spinal muscular atrophy; and FUMADERM to treat plaque psoriasis. It also provides BENEPALI, an etanercept biosimilar referencing ENBREL; ADUHELM for the treatment of Alzheimer's disease; IMRALDI, an adalimumab biosimilar referencing HUMIRA; and FLIXABI, an infliximab biosimilar referencing REMICADE. In addition, the company offers RITUXAN for treating non-Hodgkin's lymphoma, chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL), rheumatoid arthritis, two forms of ANCA-associated vasculitis, and pemphigus vulgaris; RITUXAN HYCELA for non-Hodgkin's lymphoma and CLL; GAZYVA to treat CLL and follicular lymphoma; and OCREVUS for treating relapsing MS and primary progressive MS; and other anti-CD20 therapies. Further, it develops BIIB135, BIIB061, BIIB091, and BIIB107 for MS and neuroimmunology; Aducanumab, Lecanemab, BIIB076, and BIIB080 to treat Alzheimer's disease and dementia; BIIB067, BIIB078, BIIB105, BIIB100, and BIIB110 to treat neuromuscular disorders; BIIB124, BIIB094, BIIB118, BIIB101, and BIIB122 for treating Parkinson's disease and movement disorders; BIIB125 and BIIB104 for treating neuropsychiatry; Dapirolizumab pegol and BIIB059 to treat immunology related diseases; BIIB093 and BIIB131 to treat acute neurology; BIIB074 for neuropathic pain; and BYOOVIZ, BIIB800, and SB15 biosimilars, which are under various stages of development. The company has collaboration and license agreements with Acorda Therapeutics, Inc.; Alkermes Pharma Ireland Limited; Denali Therapeutics Inc.; Eisai Co., Ltd.; Genentech, Inc.; Neurimmune SubOne AG; Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc.; Samsung Bioepis Co., Ltd.; Sangamo Therapeutics, Inc.; and Sage Therapeutics, Inc. Biogen Inc. was founded in 1978 and is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts.

How the Company Makes MoneyBiogen generates revenue primarily through the sale of its pharmaceutical products, which are aimed at treating neurological and neurodegenerative diseases. Key revenue streams include its multiple sclerosis franchise, featuring notable products such as Tecfidera, Avonex, and Tysabri, which have been significant contributors to the company's earnings. Additionally, Biogen has invested in the development of treatments for Alzheimer's disease, with products like Aduhelm aimed at addressing unmet medical needs in this area. The company also engages in strategic collaborations and partnerships, which can offer both financial support and expanded market reach. Biogen's revenue model is heavily reliant on the success and market penetration of its therapies, as well as continuous innovation to maintain its competitive edge in the biotechnology industry.

Biogen Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any

Revenue by Segment

Revenue by Segment
Breaks down revenue by different business units, highlighting which segments drive growth and profitability, and indicating areas of strategic focus or potential risk.

Chart InsightsBiogen's Multiple Sclerosis segment continues to face significant revenue declines, exacerbated by competitive pressures and biosimilar entry, as highlighted in the earnings call. However, the Rare Disease segment shows resilience with a notable recovery, potentially driven by strong product launches like SKYCLARYS. Despite challenges in MS, Biogen's strategic focus on new product growth is evident, with LEQEMBI and other launches contributing significantly to revenue. This shift in revenue composition underscores Biogen's adaptive strategy in response to market dynamics and competitive threats.

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Main Street Data

Biogen Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Biogen shows financial stability with a strong equity base and efficient cost management, reflected in high profit margins. However, the declining revenue trend poses a risk to future profitability and cash flow growth. Maintaining this financial position will require addressing revenue challenges to ensure sustainable growth.

Income Statement

Positive

Biogen's income statement reflects a stable financial position with a strong gross profit margin of 86.2% for TTM, indicating efficient cost management. However, revenue has been declining over the years, with a slight decrease of 1.7% in the latest TTM compared to the previous year. The net profit margin stands at 15.2% for TTM, showcasing decent profitability despite the revenue decline. EBIT and EBITDA margins are relatively healthy, but the overall revenue trend poses a risk.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The balance sheet of Biogen reveals a solid equity base with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.27, indicating low leverage and financial stability. The equity ratio is 63.2%, highlighting a strong financial structure with more reliance on equity than debt. However, the overall asset base has been relatively stable with minimal growth, which could limit future expansion.

Cash Flow

Positive

Biogen's cash flow performance shows a robust operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.75 for TTM, indicating strong cash generation relative to profitability. However, the free cash flow growth rate has been negative due to declining revenue, with a slight decrease in free cash flow compared to previous periods. This highlights potential challenges in sustaining cash flow growth if revenue decline continues.

TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
9.70B	9.68B	9.84B	10.17B	10.98B	13.44B
	Gross Profit
7.15B	9.68B	7.30B	7.90B	8.87B	11.64B
	EBIT
2.22B	5.23B	2.10B	2.32B	2.84B	4.55B
	EBITDA
2.15B	0.00	2.38B	4.36B	2.49B	5.73B
	Net Income Common Stockholders
1.48B	1.63B	1.16B	3.05B	1.56B	4.00B
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
1.07B	2.38B	1.05B	4.89B	3.80B	2.61B
	Total Assets
26.57B	28.05B	26.84B	24.55B	23.88B	24.62B
	Total Debt
6.95B	6.63B	7.34B	6.61B	7.60B	7.83B
	Net Debt
5.87B	4.26B	6.29B	3.19B	5.34B	6.50B
	Total Liabilities
11.35B	11.33B	12.05B	11.17B	12.92B	13.93B
	Stockholders Equity
15.21B	16.72B	14.80B	13.39B	10.96B	10.69B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
2.30B	2.52B	1.24B	1.14B	3.35B	3.68B
	Operating Cash Flow
2.58B	2.88B	1.55B	1.38B	3.64B	4.23B
	Investing Cash Flow
-780.50M	-799.20M	-4.10B	1.58B	-563.70M	-608.60M
	Financing Cash Flow
-266.90M	-683.50M	149.30M	-1.76B	-2.09B	-5.27B

Biogen Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Neutral

Last Price125.81

Price Trends

50DMA

126.06

Negative

100DMA

134.95

Negative

200DMA

158.06

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

0.88

Negative

RSI

53.08

Neutral

STOCH

60.70

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BIIB, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 125.81 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 122.67, below the 50-day MA of 126.06, and below the 200-day MA of 158.06, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.88 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 53.08 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 60.70 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for BIIB.

Biogen Risk Analysis

Biogen disclosed 30 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Biogen reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 1 New Risks

The increasing use of AI-based software presents new risks and challenges and could adversely affect our business and reputation. Q4, 2024

Biogen Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (53)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
GILD	71 Outperform	$132.78B	22.44	32.51%	2.90%	4.63%	1144.01%
SNY	71 Outperform	$128.65B	21.85	7.34%	2.81%	-4.57%	2.96%
AMGN	70 Outperform	$146.20B	24.82	105.67%	3.36%	15.59%	56.99%
BIIB	68 Neutral	$18.51B	12.47	9.19%	―	1.25%	26.10%
BMY	63 Neutral	$95.71B	17.66	31.99%	5.19%	4.62%	―
GSK	63 Neutral	$77.45B	19.97	22.26%	3.97%	4.17%	-29.96%
Sector *	53 Neutral	$5.14B	3.03	-43.89%	2.83%	16.75%	-0.06%

* Healthcare Sector Average

Performance Comparison

BIIB

Biogen

125.81

-92.00

-42.24%

AMGN

Amgen

271.66

-24.62

-8.31%

BMY

Bristol-Myers Squibb

46.85

7.54

19.18%

GILD

Gilead Sciences

107.37

44.07

69.62%

GSK

GlaxoSmithKline

38.66

-4.60

-10.63%

SNY

Sanofi

51.98

4.94

10.50%

Biogen Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 01, 2025

(Q1-2025)

% Change Since: 3.91%|

Next Earnings Date:Jul 23, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

The earnings call indicates a positive outlook for Biogen, with strong growth in new product segments and significant pipeline progress. However, challenges remain in the form of declining MS revenue and potential tariff impacts.

Q1-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Strong Start to the Year

Biogen reported a strong first quarter with a significant shift in its revenue composition. The new product portfolio, including ZURZUVAE, LEQEMBI, and VUMERITY, now represents about 45% of the company's product revenue.

LEQEMBI Commercial Success

LEQEMBI achieved $96 million in revenue. The product has received marketing authorization in the EU, reinforcing its efficacy, safety profile, and importance.

SKYCLARYS Growth

SKYCLARYS generated worldwide sales of $124 million, marking a 59% year-over-year increase and 21% quarter-over-quarter growth. The product has been launched in 26 markets.

Pipeline Progress

Biogen initiated the Phase 3 TRANSCEND study for felzartamab in AMR and received FDA Fast Track designation for their ASO targeting BIIB080 in Alzheimer's before even reading out Phase 2.

Negative Updates

Decline in MS Revenue

Biogen's global MS product revenue declined by 11% year-over-year, driven primarily by competition from biosimilars in Europe and generic competition for TECFIDERA globally.

Tariff Uncertainties

Biogen is facing complex and uncertain tariff situations, which could potentially impact its financial outlook in the future, although it is not expected to affect 2025 materially.

Company Guidance

In the recent Biogen earnings call, the company provided guidance for the fiscal year 2025, emphasizing the evolution of its product portfolio and financial outlook. Biogen anticipates a mid-single-digit decline in total revenue for 2025, primarily due to increased competition and expected declines in its MS business. Despite these challenges, the company projects growth in its launch products, which together generated approximately $200 million in revenue in Q1, reflecting a 22% increase quarter-over-quarter. The company also highlighted its strong balance sheet, with $2.6 billion in cash and $3.7 billion in net debt, enabling continued investment in both internal and external growth opportunities. Biogen's full-year non-GAAP diluted earnings per share guidance has been updated to $14.50-$15.50, reflecting the impact of a $165 million upfront payment for the Stoke transaction and a $0.20 tailwind from foreign exchange impacts. Additionally, Biogen indicated that even if the recently announced U.S. tariffs were implemented, they would not materially affect the company's 2025 financial outlook, largely due to its U.S.-based manufacturing and global inventory positions.

Biogen Corporate Events

Executive/Board Changes

Biogen Announces New Chief Accounting Officer Appointment

Neutral

Jan 15, 2025

On January 13, 2025, Biogen Inc. announced the appointment of Sean Godbout as Vice President, Chief Accounting Officer & Global Corporate Controller, effective March 1, 2025. This appointment aligns with the retirement of current Chief Financial Officer Michael McDonnell, after which Robin Kramer, the current Chief Accounting Officer, will transition to the CFO role. Godbout’s extensive experience within Biogen since 2007, and his previous roles at PricewaterhouseCoopers, underline his qualifications for this new position, potentially impacting Biogen’s financial strategy and operations.

Glossary

OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.

NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.

UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.