Brown-Forman B (BF.B) AI Stock Analysis

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Brown-Forman B

(NYSE:BF.B)

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Rating:63Neutral

Price Target:$33.00▲(7.67% Upside)

Action:reiterated

Date:09/15/26

BF.B’s score is driven primarily by solid financial quality (strong margins and free-cash-flow generation) and a reasonable valuation supported by a ~3.5% dividend yield. These positives are tempered by weak technical momentum (trading below key moving averages with negative MACD) and an earnings outlook that, while more confident, still anticipates operating-income decline amid margin and demand headwinds.

Positive Factors

Innovation and RTD growthA growing innovation and ready-to-drink pipeline broadens Brown-Forman’s occasions, channels, and consumer reach beyond its established spirits base. New products can offset weakness in mature categories while supporting portfolio relevance, distribution expansion, and future organic growth.

Negative Factors

Deteriorating revenue growthThe sharp TTM revenue decline and flat sales outlook indicate that current brand strength is not translating into broad-based growth. Persistent weakness in volumes, price mix, or major markets could limit operating leverage and reduce the resources available for reinvestment.

Brown-Forman B Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Sales by GeographyBreaks down sales across regions to show where the company is strongest and where it’s expanding, highlighting reliance on the U.S. market versus international and emerging markets. Geography-driven trends expose currency and regulatory risks, regional growth opportunities, and how well the company can offset slower markets with gains elsewhere.

Chart Insights

The US, long the revenue anchor, has softened from prior peaks while Emerging markets are the clearest area of acceleration and Developed International is staging a recovery — signaling a structural mix shift toward faster‑growing regions. Travel Retail remains lumpy but improving, and Non‑branded/Bulk sales have collapsed, implying deliberate migration away from low‑margin channels; watch whether regional mix and premiumization can offset US softness and sustain margin upside.

Data provided by:

The Fly

Brown-Forman B (BF.B) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap: $14.21B
Dividend Yield: 3.01%
Average Volume (3M): 2.51M
Price to Earnings (P/E): 19.9
Beta (1Y): 0.45
Revenue Growth: -0.18%
EPS Growth: -13.00%
Country: US
Employees: 4,900
Sector: Consumer Defensive
Sector Strength: 62
Industry: Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries

Brown-Forman B Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Brown-Forman Corporation, along with its subsidiaries, operates globally within the alcoholic beverage industry. The company is actively involved in the production, distillation, bottling, international trade (importing and exporting), marketing, and...

How the Company Makes Money

Brown-Forman makes money primarily by selling branded beverage alcohol to distributors and other wholesale customers, who then sell to retailers (e.g., liquor stores, supermarkets where permitted) and on-premise accounts (e.g., bars, restaurants, hot...

Brown-Forman B Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Sep 02, 2026(Q1-2027)|% Change Since:17.27%|Next Earnings Date:Dec 03, 2026

Earnings Call SentimentPositive

The call was positive overall. First-quarter performance was largely in line with expectations, organic operating income, EPS, and cash flow grew, innovation and RTDs generated meaningful momentum, emerging international markets grew 9%, and management reaffirmed full-year guidance with greater confidence toward the favorable end of the operating-income range. These strengths outweighed significant but acknowledged pressures from used barrel sales, tequila, developed-market demand, higher future input costs, whiskey inventory mix, and certain brands and channels.

Positive Updates

First-Quarter Results In Line and Full-Year Outlook Reaffirmed

Management said fiscal 2027 first-quarter performance unfolded largely as expected and supports the full-year outlook. The company reaffirmed expectations for approximately flat organic net sales and organic operating income declining between 3% and 5%, with increased confidence that results will trend toward the more favorable end of the range.

Negative Updates

Used Barrel Sales Declined More Than 60%

Organic net sales for the non-branded and bulk business, primarily used barrel sales, declined more than 60%. Sales fell from more than $100 million two years ago to approximately $30 million, as demand from Scotch and Irish whiskey producers remained well below unusually high prior levels.

Company Guidance

Brown-Forman reaffirmed its fiscal 2027 guidance, continuing to expect organic net sales to be approximately flat, organic operating income to decline between 3% and 5%, capital expenditures to be in the range of $60 million to $70 million, and its effective tax rate to be approximately 20%-22% for fiscal 2027; the company also expects depletions exceeding shipments for the full fiscal year, continued pressure on used barrel sales with the impact to moderate through the remainder of the year and the year-over-year dollar impact on net sales to be significantly less, and increased confidence that results will trend toward the more favorable end of the range.

Brown-Forman B Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong underlying quality with resilient gross margins (~59–61%) and solid operating profitability, supported by strong free cash flow and good cash conversion (~0.9x FCF-to-net income). Offsetting this, the latest top-line momentum is weak (notably a sharp TTM revenue decline) and net margin has compressed versus prior peaks, while leverage remains meaningful even if improved versus 2023–2024.

Income Statement

70Positive

Balance Sheet

66Positive

Cash Flow

78Positive

Financial statement breakdown
Breakdown	TTM	Apr 2026	Apr 2025	Apr 2024	Apr 2023	Apr 2022
Income Statement
Total Revenue	3.92B	3.93B	3.98B	4.18B	4.23B	3.93B
Gross Profit	2.38B	2.38B	2.34B	2.53B	2.49B	2.39B
EBITDA	1.09B	1.20B	1.29B	1.51B	1.19B	1.27B
Net Income	721.00M	715.00M	869.00M	1.02B	783.00M	838.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	7.83B	7.89B	8.09B	8.17B	7.78B	6.37B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	301.00M	308.00M	444.00M	446.00M	374.00M	868.00M
Total Debt	2.44B	2.15B	2.73B	3.10B	2.91B	2.27B
Total Liabilities	3.86B	3.87B	4.09B	4.65B	4.51B	3.64B
Stockholders Equity	3.97B	4.02B	3.99B	3.52B	3.27B	2.74B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	925.00M	893.00M	431.00M	419.00M	457.00M	798.00M
Operating Cash Flow	1.01B	1.00B	598.00M	647.00M	640.00M	936.00M
Investing Cash Flow	-86.00M	-71.00M	249.00M	49.00M	-1.35B	-127.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-1.10B	-1.07B	-843.00M	-618.00M	239.00M	-1.04B

Brown-Forman B Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentPositive

Last Price30.65

Price Trends

50DMA27.70Positive

100DMA27.36Positive

200DMA26.89Positive

Market Momentum

MACD0.81Negative

RSI60.45Neutral

STOCH53.97Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BF.B, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 30.65 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 29.46, above the 50-day MA of 27.70, and above the 200-day MA of 26.89, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.81 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 60.45 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 53.97 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for BF.B.

Brown-Forman B Risk Analysis

Brown-Forman B disclosed 25 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Brown-Forman B reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.

Legal & Regulatory - Litigation, compliance, new legislation, and taxation risks

Latest Risks Added

3 New Risks

1.A downgrade or potential downgrade of our credit ratings could adversely impact our borrowing costs and access to credit and capital markets, which could negatively affect our financial condition.Q1, 2026

2.We are subject to risks from changes to the trade policies, tariffs, and import and export regulations of the U.S. and foreign governments.Q1, 2025

3.We are subject to risks from changes to the trade policies, tariffs and import and export regulations of the U.S. and foreign governments.Q4, 2024

Brown-Forman B Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (62)

Financial Indicators

BF.B against its peers
Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
STZ	79Outperform	$24.47B	13.05	23.58%	2.82%	-4.31%	62.57%
FIZZ	73Outperform	$3.39B	20.02	32.60%	―	-1.80%	-5.87%
BF.B	63Neutral	$13.93B	19.90	17.80%	3.01%	-0.18%	-13.00%
Sector *	62Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%
COKE	62Neutral	$13.78B	24.25	-104.99%	0.47%	10.22%	21.45%
TAP	56Neutral	$7.35B	8.65	8.78%	4.68%	-1.58%	―

* Consumer Defensive Sector Average

Performance Comparison

BF.B and its peers over the selected period
Ticker	Company Name	Price	Change	% Change
BF.B	Brown-Forman Corp (BF-B)	30.65	3.80	14.17%
COKE	Coca-cola Bottling Co. Consolidated	214.34	55.57	35.00%
STZ	Constellation Brands	145.61	18.38	14.45%
TAP	Molson Coors Beverage	40.84	-2.81	-6.44%
FIZZ	National Beverage	37.23	7.80	26.50%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Sep 15, 2026

Brown-Forman B AI Stock Analysis