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BayFirst Financial Corp
(NASDAQ:BAFN)
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Rating:55Neutral
Price Target:
$7.50
▲(2.88% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/21/26
BAFN scores mid-range primarily due to severe financial-performance weakness (sharp revenue decline and deeply negative profitability) despite positive cash flow and manageable reported leverage. Technicals are a clear offset with strong upside trend signals, but valuation is constrained by negative earnings. The earnings call adds a cautious positive tilt from strengthened capital and remediation progress, tempered by large losses, restatements/control issues, and balance-sheet contraction.
Positive Factors
Stronger Capitalization
The capital raise materially improves loss-absorption capacity and regulatory flexibility. Higher equity and capital ratios give BayFirst more time to resolve legacy exposures and rebuild its core community-banking franchise.
Negative Factors
Severe Earnings and Revenue Deterioration
The sharp revenue contraction and deeply negative profitability show that BayFirst's earnings power has materially weakened. Persistent losses can consume capital, restrict strategic investment and make the recovery dependent on successful remediation.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Stronger Capitalization
The capital raise materially improves loss-absorption capacity and regulatory flexibility. Higher equity and capital ratios give BayFirst more time to resolve legacy exposures and rebuild its core community-banking franchise.
Read all positive factors
BayFirst Financial Corp Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Loan Portfolio Breakdown
Breaks down the bank's loan mix — commercial, commercial real estate, consumer, and mortgage — along with credit-quality metrics and borrower or sector concentrations. A portfolio weighted toward commercial real estate or construction can drive income in good times but increases exposure to local economic weakness and property-price swings; a diversified mix with low delinquencies and limited borrower concentrations points to steadier earnings and lower credit risk. Tracking originations, average loan size, yields, and nonperforming loans highlights growth momentum, margin drivers, and early signs of potential charge-offs.
Breaks down the bank's loan mix — commercial, commercial real estate, consumer, and mortgage — along with credit-quality metrics and borrower or sector concentrations. A portfolio weighted toward commercial real estate or construction can drive income in good times but increases exposure to local economic weakness and property-price swings; a diversified mix with low delinquencies and limited borrower concentrations points to steadier earnings and lower credit risk. Tracking originations, average loan size, yields, and nonperforming loans highlights growth momentum, margin drivers, and early signs of potential charge-offs.
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The Fly
The FlyBayFirst Financial Corp (BAFN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$198.72M
Dividend Yield1.33%
Average Volume (3M)11.15K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.50
Revenue Growth-35.76%
EPS Growth-909.39%
CountryUS
Employees148
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Regional
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-14.91
Shares Outstanding26,962,814
10 Day Avg. Volume16,746
30 Day Avg. Volume11,146
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio<0.01
Price to Book (P/B)0.37
Price to Sales (P/S)0.31
P/FCF Ratio0.11
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit>-0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda>-0.01
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
BayFirst Financial Corp Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Founded in 1999 and headquartered in Saint Petersburg, Florida, BayFirst Financial Corp. functions as the parent entity for First Home Bank. This financial institution offers a comprehensive array of commercial and consumer banking solutions for b...
How the Company Makes Money
null...
BayFirst Financial Corp Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 13, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 22, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Negative
The call conveyed a mix of proactive remediation, strengthened capital and leadership changes but also significant near-term financial damage from legacy SBA exposures and accounting misstatements. Management took decisive actions—an $80M capital raise, a comprehensive asset resolution plan, restatements and leadership hires—that materially improved capital ratios (Tier 1 leverage to 8.3%) and clarified the bank's path forward. However, the quarter was dominated by large one-time losses (~$43.8M pretax), a Q2 net loss of $32.7M, a sharp drop in tangible book value per share (≈‑66% q/q), negative noninterest income, and meaningful contraction in loans and deposits. The improvements in normalized NIM (4.07%), falling cost of funds, and declining nonperforming loans are positive operational signals, but they do not yet fully offset the material financial and control issues disclosed this quarter.Positive Updates
Significant Capital Raise and Improved Regulatory Capital
$80.0 million capital raise completed in April; shareholders' equity of $115.9 million (up $40.3 million q/q). Tier 1 leverage improved to 8.3% (from 5.89% at 3/31/26) and total capital to risk-weighted assets rose to 12.77% (from 9.00% at 3/31/26).
Negative Updates
Large Quarterly Net Loss Largely Driven by One-Time Charges
Net loss of $32.7 million in Q2 2026 vs. a restated net loss of $5.9 million in Q1 2026. Asset resolution and related one-time items accounted for approximately $43.8 million of pretax adjustments; provision expense for the quarter was $29.7 million.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Significant Capital Raise and Improved Regulatory Capital
$80.0 million capital raise completed in April; shareholders' equity of $115.9 million (up $40.3 million q/q). Tier 1 leverage improved to 8.3% (from 5.89% at 3/31/26) and total capital to risk-weighted assets rose to 12.77% (from 9.00% at 3/31/26).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management said the bank is positioned to return to profitable, relationship-driven lending after an $80.0M capital raise and deployment of an asset‑resolution plan, will launch a shareholder rights offering in mid‑August (mailings to record holders of May 12 next week) and plans to open a South Tampa branch in September; key Q2 metrics cited include a net loss of $32.7M (pretax loss ≈$44M driven by $43.8M of one‑time asset‑resolution and related items), a near‑core breakeven operating loss of ~$0.2M, net interest income $9.4M with NIM 3.48% (normalized NIM 4.07% excl. one‑time items), cost of funds 2.66% (down 24 bps Q/Q, 49 bps YTD), loans held for investment $882.8M (‑$41.4M Q/Q, ‑$237.7M Y/Y), deposits $989M (‑$97M Q/Q, ‑$175M Y/Y) with 80% FDIC‑insured, liquidity ratio 14.95%, shareholders’ equity $115.9M (up $40.3M Q/Q), tangible book $4.82/share (from $14.22), allowance for credit losses $45.1M (ACL/loans 5.37%; excl. government‑guaranteed 5.82%), provision $29.7M, annualized charge‑offs 2.08% of average loans, unguaranteed SBA balances $142M (BOLT $60M reserved ~33%, Flash $29M reserved 25%; two portfolios = $83M unguaranteed), nonperforming loans excl. government guaranteed $14.4M (1.72% of loans, down 10 bps Q/Q), Tier 1 leverage 8.3% and total capital/RWA 12.77%, tax rate ~25% with no DTA valuation allowance, and a focus on growing commercial lending, treasury fee income and improving deposit mix to drive future profitability.BayFirst Financial Corp Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
18
Very Negative
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
Cash Flow
62
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 65.18M | 104.19M | 125.24M | 110.85M | 66.41M | 63.35M |
| Gross Profit | -11.82M | 39.59M | 65.73M | 68.32M | 58.54M | 59.55M |
| EBITDA | -76.06M | -21.71M | 25.71M | 14.79M | 12.01M | 16.05M |
| Net Income | -59.71M | -22.94M | 12.60M | 5.70M | -349.00K | 24.62M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.13B | 1.30B | 1.29B | 1.12B | 938.89M | 917.10M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 212.92M | 206.98M | 88.94M | 102.61M | 113.28M | 143.00M |
| Total Debt | 18.66M | 20.82M | 22.40M | 20.96M | 37.37M | 12.71M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.02B | 1.21B | 1.18B | 1.02B | 847.01M | 820.80M |
| Stockholders Equity | 115.95M | 87.57M | 110.92M | 100.71M | 91.88M | 96.29M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 147.80M | 285.00M | 388.84M | 447.21M | 432.19M | 482.27M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 147.84M | 285.30M | 390.53M | 454.80M | 440.25M | 495.39M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 59.01M | -194.94M | -515.93M | -641.28M | -510.61M | 207.62M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -142.14M | 38.84M | 144.80M | 178.82M | 26.67M | -648.66M |
BayFirst Financial Corp Technical Analysis
Positive
7.29
Price Trends
5.90
Positive
6.30
Positive
6.70
Positive
Market Momentum
0.39
Negative
63.84
Neutral
78.55
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BAFN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 7.29 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.64, above the 50-day MA of 5.90, and above the 200-day MA of 6.70, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.39 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 63.84 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 78.55 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for BAFN.
BayFirst Financial Corp Risk Analysis
BayFirst Financial Corp disclosed 51 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. BayFirst Financial Corp reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
BayFirst Financial Corp Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
83 Outperform | $113.10M | 5.34 | 16.39% | ― | 24.01% | 20.16% | |
79 Outperform | $78.85M | 12.70 | 10.69% | 2.53% | 7.71% | 60.72% | |
73 Outperform | $84.05M | 10.01 | 7.13% | 2.76% | 4.91% | 127.20% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
65 Neutral | $50.75M | 14.43 | 5.66% | 1.30% | 5.94% | 51.02% | |
55 Neutral | $198.72M | -0.49 | -63.67% | 1.33% | -35.76% | -909.39% |
* Financial Sector Average
BAFN
BayFirst Financial Corp
7.29
-2.15
-22.78%
ASRV
Ameriserv Financial
5.08
2.12
71.62%
HFBL
Home Federal Bancorp Of Louisiana
25.92
12.92
99.45%
OPHC
Optimumbank Holdings
9.24
4.94
114.88%
TCBS
Texas Community
17.31
1.24
7.70%
BayFirst Financial Corp Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and ComplianceShareholder Meetings
BayFirst Details Q2 Losses and Restated Financials
Negative
Aug 18, 2026
On August 14, 2026, BayFirst Financial Corp detailed a tumultuous second quarter marked by a net loss of $32.7 million, largely driven by a $41.5 million asset resolution plan focused on legacy unguaranteed SBA 7(a) loans and related portfolio adj...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
BayFirst Posts Larger Loss, Shifts Strategy Toward Core Banking
Negative
Aug 13, 2026
BayFirst Financial Corp. reported on August 13, 2026, a sharply wider net loss of $32.7 million for the second quarter of 2026, driven primarily by $41.5 million of expenses tied to an asset resolution plan targeting problem government guaranteed ...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
BayFirst Financial delays Q2 results amid restatements
Negative
Jul 28, 2026
BayFirst Financial Corp., parent of BayFirst National Bank, said on July 28, 2026 that it will report second-quarter 2026 results after the market closes on August 13, 2026, delaying its usual schedule. Management plans to discuss the June 30 quar...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and FinancingShareholder Meetings
BayFirst Shareholders Approve Key Equity Expansion Measures
Positive
Jul 17, 2026
On July 14, 2026, BayFirst Financial Corp held a Special Meeting of shareholders, with 80.9% of the 4,106,905 outstanding common shares represented in person or by proxy. Shareholders approved a proposal authorizing the issuance of common stock up...
Financial Disclosures
BayFirst Schedules Release of Q2 2026 Results
Neutral
Jun 30, 2026
BayFirst Financial Corp., the St. Petersburg-based parent of BayFirst National Bank, operates eleven full-service branches in the Tampa Bay-Sarasota corridor and offers a full suite of commercial and consumer banking services to regional businesse...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.