American Express (AXP) Risk Analysis

We face heightened and evolving regulatory expectations and scrutiny in the U.S. and globally, which significantly affects our business and requires continual enhancement of our compliance efforts. Supervision efforts and the enforcement of existing laws and regulations impact the scope and profitability of our existing business activities, limit our ability to pursue certain business opportunities and adopt new technologies, compromise our competitive position (particularly where we may be treated differently from our competitors), and affect our relationships with Card Members, partners, merchants, service providers and other third parties. New laws or regulations could similarly affect our business, increase the costs and complexity of doing business, impact what we are able to charge for, or offer in connection with, our products and services, impose conflicting obligations, and require us to change certain of our business practices and invest significant management attention and resources, all of which could adversely affect our results of operations and financial condition. Political developments, including those relating to recent shifts in trade policy and heightened geopolitical tensions, have resulted in and may further result in an increase in the number, complexity and scope of laws and regulations, heightened legislative and regulatory uncertainty, changes to supervisory and enforcement priorities, and increased risk of fragmentation in global financial regulation. In addition, legislators and regulators around the world are aware of each other's approaches to the regulation of the financial services industry, so a development in one jurisdiction may influence regulatory approaches in another. If we fail to satisfy regulatory requirements and expectations or maintain our financial holding company status or other applicable licenses and charters, our financial condition and results of operations could be adversely affected, and we may be restricted in our ability to take certain capital actions (such as declaring dividends or repurchasing outstanding shares) or engage in certain business activities or acquisitions, which could compromise our competitive position. Additionally, our banking regulators have wide discretion in the examination and the enforcement of applicable banking statutes and regulations and may restrict our ability to engage in certain business activities or acquisitions or require us to maintain more capital. We are currently a Category III firm for purposes of the U.S. federal bank regulatory agencies' tailoring framework, which subjects us to heightened regulatory expectations and more stringent regulatory requirements. As we continue to grow, these expectations and requirements may further increase, such as if we become a Category II firm, which may increase our compliance costs and adversely affect our business. Legislators and regulators continue to focus on the operation of card networks, including interchange fees paid to card issuers in payment networks such as Visa and Mastercard, network routing practices and the fees merchants are charged to accept cards. While in some cases our business is subject to exemptions related to certain of these regulations, there is no guarantee that such exemptions will continue to be available and even where we are not directly regulated, regulation of bankcard fees significantly negatively impacts the discount revenue derived from our business, including as a result of downward pressure on our discount rate from decreases in competitor pricing in connection with caps on interchange fees. In some cases, regulations also extend, or may extend, to certain aspects of our business, such as network and cobrand arrangements, new products or services we may offer, or the terms of card acceptance for merchants, including terms relating to non-discrimination and honor-all-cards. For example, we have exited our network licensing businesses in the EU and Australia as a result of regulation in those jurisdictions. In addition,there is uncertainty as to when or how interchange fee caps and other provisions of payments legislation might apply when we work with cobrand partners and agents in the EU. See "Supervision and Regulation - Payments Regulation" under "Business" for more information. Given differing interpretations by regulators and participants in cobrand arrangements, we are subject to regulatory action, penalties and the possibility we will not be able to maintain our existing cobrand and agent relationships in the EU. In addition, a number of federal and state laws to regulate various aspects of network operations are being considered or have passed, including regarding information associated with electronic transactions (such as the use of specific merchant categories codes or limitations on the use of transaction data) and pricing of electronic transactions (such as interchange fees on sales tax or gratuities). Legislators and regulators also continue to focus on consumer protection, including product design and pricing constructs, account management and security, creditworthiness assessments, credit bureau reporting, disclosure rules, marketing, forbearance measures and debt collection practices. This focus has included fees, interest rates and rewards associated with card and banking products, such as recent proposals to cap credit card interest rates. In addition, government agencies are reviewing financial institutions' policies and practices for providing, maintaining or discontinuing financial products or services to certain clients or potential clients. Any new requirements or increased enforcement of existing requirements could materially and adversely impact our revenue growth and profitability, including, as a result of increased scrutiny of our pricing, underwriting and account management practices; the imposition of fines and customer remediation; higher compliance costs; reputational harm; impacts to our ability to issue cards or extend credit to current and prospective Card Members, appropriately price for the value of our products or work with certain business partners; and changes to our business practices generally. We are subject to significant supervision and regulation with respect to compliance with AML/CFT laws, sanctions regimes and anti-corruption laws in numerous jurisdictions. As regulators increase their focus with respect to these financial crimes laws, new technologies such as digital currencies develop, near real-time money movement solutions are adopted, we introduce new products and geopolitical tensions increase, we face increased costs related to oversight, supervision and potential fines. We have been engaging with our federal regulators in relation to certain aspects of our financial crimes compliance program and we are working to enhance our existing programs, policies and procedures and identify and remediate deficiencies to strengthen our program and address regulatory feedback. From time to time, we identify transactions or accounts relating to certain sanctioned parties that we terminate, block and report to our regulators, as applicable. Errors, failures or delays in complying with financial crimes laws, deficiencies in our related compliance programs or association of our business with money laundering, terrorist financing, tax fraud or other illicit activities or sanctioned persons, entities, governments or countries could give rise to significant supervisory, criminal and civil proceedings and lawsuits, which could result in significant penalties and forfeiture of assets, loss of licenses or restrictions on business activities, or other enforcement actions, and our reputation may suffer due to our customers' association with certain countries, persons or entities or the existence of any such transactions. Additionally, our financial crimes compliance programs may limit our ability to pursue certain business opportunities or affect our relationships with certain partners, service providers and other third parties. See "Supervision and Regulation" under "Business" for more information about certain laws and regulations to which we are subject and their impact on us.

We are, and have been in the past, a defendant in a number of actions, including legal proceedings, arbitrations and proposed class actions, challenging certain provisions of our card acceptance agreements. See Note 12 to the "Consolidated Financial Statements" for a description of certain outstanding legal proceedings. An adverse outcome in these proceedings could have a material adverse effect on our business and results of operations, require us to change our merchant agreements in a way that could expose our cards to increased merchant surcharging, steering and other forms of discrimination that could impair the Card Member experience, result in additional litigation and/or arbitrations, impose substantial monetary damages and damage our reputation and brand. Even if we were not required to change our merchant agreements, changes in Visa's and Mastercard's policies or practices as a result of legal proceedings, lawsuit settlements or regulatory actions pending against them could result in changes to our business practices and materially and adversely impact our profitability. For example, in November 2025 Visa and Mastercard proposed a lawsuit settlement agreement that would, among other things, require reductions and caps on interchange fees, provide merchants greater options to impose a surcharge on credit transactions, and allow merchants to choose not to accept certain categories of credit cards. If the settlement agreement is approved by the court, or Visa and Mastercard otherwise agree to make similar changes, it may result in greater surcharging generally, decreased acceptance by merchants of certain types of cards, such as premium cards, or downward pressure on our merchant discount rates from decreases in competitor pricing in connection with reductions and caps on interchange fees.

In the ordinary course of our business we enter into different types of contractual arrangements with business partners in a variety of industries. For example, we work with partners such as Delta, Marriott, British Airways and Hilton to offer cobranded cards for consumers and small businesses, and with partners in many industries, including Delta, to offer benefits and rewards to Card Members. Other aspects of our customer value propositions also increasingly rely on our ability to co-create and co-fund value with partners, such as statement credits for purchases with partners and travel and dining benefits. See "Partners and Relationships" under "Business" for additional information on our business partnerships, including with Delta. Competition for relationships with key business partners is very intense and there can be no assurance we will be able to grow or maintain these partner relationships or that they will remain as profitable or valued by our customers. Establishing and retaining attractive cobrand card partnerships is particularly competitive among card issuers and networks as these partnerships typically appeal to high-spending loyal customers. All of our cobrand portfolios in the aggregate accounted for approximately 26 percent of our worldwide billed business for the year ended December 31, 2025. Card Member loans related to our cobrand portfolios accounted for approximately 36 percent of our worldwide Card Member loans as of December 31, 2025. Cobrand and other partner arrangements are generally entered into for a fixed period and will terminate in accordance with their terms, including at the end of the fixed period unless extended or renewed at the option of the parties, or upon early termination as a result of an event of default or otherwise. We face the risk that we could lose partner relationships, even after we have invested significant resources in the relationships. Additionally, partners may make changes to the products and services they offer or otherwise become less desirable to our customers, which may lower the value of our products, such as cards with embedded partner value and the cobranded cards we issue to our customers. We also may not renew certain relationships, such as our Amazon and Lowe's small business cobrand portfolios, which, as previously disclosed, have been reclassified to held for sale on our Consolidated Balance Sheets. Billed business could decline and Card Member attrition could increase, in each case, significantly as a result of the termination of one or more partnership relationships. In addition, some of our cobrand arrangements provide that, upon expiration or termination, the cobrand partner may purchase or designate a third party to purchase the loans generated with respect to such cobranded card portfolio, which could result in the loss of the card accounts and a significant decline in our Card Member loans outstanding. We regularly seek to extend or renew cobrand and other partner arrangements in advance of the end of the contract term and face the risk that existing relationships will be renegotiated with less favorable terms for us or that we may be unable to renegotiate on terms that are acceptable to us, as competition for such relationships continues to increase. We make payments to our cobrand partners, which can be significant, based primarily on the amount of Card Member spending and corresponding rewards earned on such spending and, under certain arrangements, on the number of accounts acquired and retained. The amount we pay to our cobrand partners has increased, particularly in the United States, and may continue to increase as arrangements are renegotiated due to increasingly intense competition for cobrand partners among card issuers and networks. The loss of exclusivity arrangements with business partners, the loss of the partner relationship altogether (whether by non-renewal at the end of the contract period, such as the end of our relationship with Costco in the United States in 2016, or as the result of a merger, legal or regulatory action or otherwise) or the renegotiation of existing partnerships with terms that are significantly worse for us could have a material adverse impact on our business and results of operations. See "Our business is subject to evolving and comprehensive government regulation and supervision, which could materially adversely affect our results of operations and financial condition" above for information on the uncertainty regarding our cobrand and agent relationships in the EU. In addition, any publicity associated with the loss of any of our key business partners could harm our reputation, making it more difficult to attract and retain Card Members and merchants, and could weaken our negotiating position with our remaining and prospective business partners.

We face risks from fraudulent activity associated with Card Members, merchants and others, including through bad actors obtaining access to our customer accounts and information and frauds committed by our customers against us. Large financial services firms such as American Express and our customers are regularly targeted by a range of fraudulent activity, including fraud on our card and banking products, false disputes, account takeovers, identity theft and electronic-transaction related crimes, with sophisticated perpetrators increasingly utilizing a range of advanced techniques and multiple parties acting in concert. New or emerging technologies, such as generative AI capabilities, have increased these fraud risks. For example, we have seen our customers targeted by elaborate and voluminous social engineering attacks, which may utilize advanced methods of deception, such as synthetic voice and conversation generation. Information and cybersecurity breaches and other operational incidents that we or third parties experience also increase our fraud risk. Additionally, our introduction of new products and services, expansion into new jurisdictions or usage of new partners or vendors may create new fraud risks or heighten existing risks. While we have policies and procedures designed to address fraud risks, such as customer authentication controls and fraud detection systems, they may be insufficient to accurately predict, prevent or detect fraud. Increased fraudulent activity associated with our products and services could materially adversely affect our financial condition and results of operations, including as a result of credit losses and other expenses. Furthermore, fraudulent activity could harm our brand and reputation, negatively impact the use or acceptance of our products and services and lead to regulatory intervention or other actions (such as mandatory card reissuance).

Market risk includes the loss in value of portfolios and financial instruments due to adverse changes in market variables, which could negatively impact our financial condition. We have experienced realized and unrealized losses in our Amex Ventures™ equity investments and may experience further losses in the future. As of December 31, 2025, we held approximately $1.0 billion of investment securities, primarily consisting of debt securities, and equity investments, including certain equity method investments, totaling approximately $2.4 billion. Negative market conditions, changes in valuations or increases in default rates or bankruptcies with respect to these investments, due to economic conditions, business performance or otherwise, could have a material adverse impact on the value of our investments, potentially resulting in impairment charges. Defaults, threats of defaults or economic disruptions, even in countries or territories in which we do not have material investment exposure, conduct business or have operations, could adversely affect us.

Geopolitical conditions, terrorist attacks, military conflicts, supply chain issues, natural disasters, severe weather, widespread health emergencies or pandemics, information or cybersecurity incidents (including intrusion into or degradation or unavailability of systems or technology by cyberattacks), operational incidents and other catastrophic events can have a material adverse effect on our business. Political and social conditions, including geopolitical instability (such as from tensions involving China and the United States), fiscal and monetary policies (including developments related to the U.S. federal deficit, debt ceiling, government shutdowns and other budgetary issues), trade wars and tariffs, labor shortages, regional or domestic hostilities, economic sanctions and the prospect or occurrence of more widespread conflicts could also negatively affect our business, operations and partners, consumer and business spending, including travel patterns and business investment, and demand for credit. Pandemics and other health emergencies can have widespread and unpredictable impacts on global society, economic conditions and consumer and business behavior. Because we derive a portion of our revenues from travel-related spending and many of our partners' businesses relate to travel, our business is sensitive to impacts to travel and tourism, such as health and safety concerns and limitations on travel and mobility. In addition, disruptions in air travel and other forms of travel can result in the payment of claims under travel protection products we offer. We are a multinational company that derives a substantial portion of its revenues from activities outside of the United States and many of our U.S. customers have an international presence or are otherwise affected by global developments. Accordingly, events that impact international relations and geopolitical stability may have a significant impact on our business. For example, several countries have implemented and are considering the further implementation of tariffs, trade barriers or restrictions and other retaliatory international or domestic policies, as well as other measures affecting cross-border commerce, migration and the flow of information. These actions have had and may likely continue to have broad consequences for the global economy and regional and country economies, as well as impacts to global supply chains and negative effects on our customers and partners, which may adversely affect our business. There are multiple ongoing military conflicts around the world and geopolitical tensions may result in additional conflicts or escalate existing conflicts. Such conflicts have led to economic uncertainty and market disruptions. For example, as a result of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, we exited our business operations in Russia and Belarus. Geopolitical conditions may adversely affect macroeconomic conditions and our business in a number of ways, including potential retaliatory action against companies such as us and our clients and partners, further sanctions activity and export controls, heightened regulatory scrutiny, increased inflation, further increases or fluctuations in goods and energy prices, decreases in global travel, further disruptions to the global supply chain and increased prevalence and sophistication of cyberattacks. If international political instability and geopolitical tensions continue or increase, our business and results of operations could be harmed. Hurricanes, wildfires and other natural disasters have impacted, and may continue to impact, spending and credit performance in the areas affected. Disasters and catastrophic events, and the impact of such events on certain industries or the overall economy, could have a negative effect on our business, results of operations and infrastructure, including our technology and systems and those of our partners and suppliers. Climate-related risks may exacerbate certain of these threats, including the frequency and severity of weather-related events. Card Members in California, Florida, New York, Texas, Georgia and New Jersey account for a significant portion of U.S. consumer and small business billed business and Card Member loans, and our results of operations could be impacted by events or conditions that disproportionately or specifically affect one or more of those states.

Our ability to obtain financing in the capital markets, such as from unsecured term debt issuances and asset securitizations, is dependent on financial market conditions. Disruptions, uncertainty or volatility across the financial markets, as well as adverse developments affecting us, our competitors, the financial industry or the economy generally, could negatively impact market liquidity and limit our access to funding required to operate and grow our business and satisfy cash needs, maturing liabilities and regulatory capital requirements. In some circumstances, our business growth or funding needs may increase unexpectedly and/or we may incur an unattractive cost to raise capital, which could decrease profitability and significantly reduce financial flexibility. Additional factors affecting the extent to which we may securitize loans and receivables in the future include the overall credit quality of our loans and receivables, the costs of securitizing our loans and receivables, the demand for credit card asset-backed securities and the legal, regulatory, accounting or tax rules affecting securitization transactions and asset-backed securities, generally. Our liquidity and cost of funds would also be adversely affected by the occurrence of events that could result in the early amortization of our existing securitization transactions. For a further discussion of our liquidity and funding needs, see "Consolidated Capital Resources and Liquidity" under "MD&A."

We use models and automation throughout our business, including to inform and support decision making, manage risks, estimate financial values and forecast liquidity and funding needs. Although we have a governance framework for model development and independent model validation, the modeling methodology or key assumptions could be erroneous or the models could be misused. In addition, issues with completeness, accuracy and timeliness of data inputs, the quality or effectiveness of our data aggregation and validation procedures, and the quality and integrity of formulas and algorithms, could result in ineffective or inaccurate model outputs and reports. Models based on historical data sets might not be accurate predictors of future outcomes, such as when we lack recent precedent or recent precedent deviates from current circumstances because of changes in customer behavior, the credit or demographic profiles of our Card Members, the geopolitical or macroeconomic environment or otherwise. We periodically review our models, and updates that we make may result in significantly different outputs. Additionally, we increasingly use models that leverage AI, which are subject to additional risks such as biased or inaccurate results or lowered interpretability. The complexity of these models and our limited transparency into the AI may make it difficult to understand certain outputs or identify errors. Certain models, such as models used to estimate reserves for credit losses under Current Expected Credit Loss (CECL) and Membership Rewards liability, require us to make difficult, subjective and complex judgments, and utilize forward-looking information and information provided by third parties over which we have limited oversight or control. If our business decisions, risk management practices or financial estimates and forecasts are based on incorrect or misused models and assumptions or we fail to manage data inputs effectively and to aggregate or analyze data in an accurate and timely manner, our results of operations and financial condition may be materially adversely affected.