tiprankstipranks
Yancoal Australia Ltd. (AU:YAL)
ASX:YAL
Want to see AU:YAL full AI Analyst Report?

Yancoal Australia (YAL) AI Stock Analysis

407 Followers

Top Page

AU:YAL

Yancoal Australia

(Sydney:YAL)

Select Model
Select Model
Select Model
Neutral 68 (OpenAI - Gpt-5.6Sol)
Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
AU$7.00
â–²(17.45% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/20/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial flexibility from a low-leverage balance sheet and a generally positive earnings call with solid FY2026 operating guidance. Offsetting this are weakened and volatile earnings/cash flow versus cycle highs, a still-challenged longer-term technical trend (below 100/200-day averages), and a relatively high P/E for a cyclical coal name with only a moderate dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Production growth
Record first-half production and progress toward the upper half of FY2026 guidance indicate strong operating execution across the mining portfolio. Higher saleable volumes can support revenue growth, improve fixed-cost absorption, and strengthen Yancoal’s competitive position over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Cyclical earnings decline
The multi-year revenue decline and sharp reduction in net income demonstrate high exposure to the coal cycle and limited earnings consistency. Even with positive current operations, this volatility can constrain dividend visibility, investment planning, and confidence in normalized profitability.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Production growth
Record first-half production and progress toward the upper half of FY2026 guidance indicate strong operating execution across the mining portfolio. Higher saleable volumes can support revenue growth, improve fixed-cost absorption, and strengthen Yancoal’s competitive position over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors

Yancoal Australia (YAL) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)

Yancoal Australia Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description
Yancoal Australia Ltd is actively involved in the entire lifecycle of coal production, encompassing the exploration, development, extraction, and global distribution of both metallurgical and thermal coal. The company's reach extends across numero...
How the Company Makes Money
Yancoal Australia makes money primarily by mining coal and selling it to customers under a mix of term contracts and spot/shorter-term arrangements. Its main revenue stream is the sale of thermal coal and metallurgical coal, with sales volumes and...

Yancoal Australia Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 19, 2026
(Q2-2026)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 19, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a predominantly positive operational and financial story: record first-half production, double-digit revenue growth, a 29% rise in operating EBITDA, low cash costs relative to peers, strong cash balance and maintained dividends. Key negatives were largely accounting-driven non‑operating items (totaling ~$272 million) that materially reduced statutory profits (PBT $56m; NPAT $17m), diesel cost inflation pressure, safety metric deterioration (TRIFR) that is being addressed, and the near-term financing and integration implications of the Kestrel acquisition (significant cash outlay, contingent payments and planned debt raising). Overall the strengths (recurring operational performance, cash position, EBITDA growth, strategic acquisition) outweigh the lowlights, though investors should note the noncash accounting items and the near-term balance sheet / cost sensitivities associated with Kestrel and fuel prices.
Positive Updates
Record First-Half Production
Attributable saleable coal production reached a first-half record of 19.8 million tonnes (ROM production 32.5 million tonnes). Attributable production was up ~5% versus the first half last year and Yancoal is on track to deliver in the upper half of FY2026 guidance (36.5–40.5 Mt).
Negative Updates
Large Non‑Operating / Accounting Items Reduced Statutory Profits
Non‑operating items totaled ~$272 million, largely noncash, including a $188 million hedge reversal (FX translation) and a $49 million impairment on the Middlemount equity investment. This reduced statutory profit before tax to $56 million and profit after tax to $17 million despite strong operating results.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Negative
Record First-Half Production
Attributable saleable coal production reached a first-half record of 19.8 million tonnes (ROM production 32.5 million tonnes). Attributable production was up ~5% versus the first half last year and Yancoal is on track to deliver in the upper half of FY2026 guidance (36.5–40.5 Mt).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Guidance for FY2026 is to deliver attributable saleable production in the upper half of the 36.5–40.5 Mt range (after a record H1 of 19.8 Mt), cash operating costs of A$90–98/t (H1 was A$96/t and management expects the full‑year outcome in the upper half of that range given diesel), revised capital expenditure guidance of A$600–750m (down A$150m from prior guidance; H1 capex A$254m), and continued dividend discipline (an interim A$92.4m payment = A$0.07/share, fully franked, with policy targeting ~50% of NPAT or free cash flow); the group held A$2.1bn cash at 30 June (about half expected to be used towards the upfront US$1.85bn Kestrel consideration with potential US$550m contingent payments), Kestrel completion is targeted around the start of October, and pro‑rata gearing after taking on debt for Kestrel is expected to be ~15–18%.

Yancoal Australia Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Financials are mixed: a very strong, low-leverage balance sheet (debt-to-equity ~0.01–0.02 in 2023–2024) supports resilience, but profitability and cash flow are clearly cyclical and have weakened from 2022 highs (revenue down three straight years and net income falling to ~0.44B in 2025; free cash flow also declined materially in 2025).
Income Statement
66
Positive
Balance Sheet
90
Very Positive
Cash Flow
61
Positive
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue6.19B5.88B6.77B7.80B10.66B5.52B
Gross Profit2.24B2.27B5.37B4.55B7.51B2.70B
EBITDA1.36B1.45B2.47B3.51B6.34B2.18B
Net Income294.00M440.00M1.22B1.82B3.59B791.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets11.99B12.21B12.36B11.81B13.37B12.34B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments2.09B2.13B2.46B1.40B2.70B1.50B
Total Debt60.00M84.00M112.00M146.00M673.00M3.44B
Total Liabilities2.97B3.17B3.04B3.37B5.34B6.19B
Stockholders Equity9.02B9.03B9.31B8.44B8.03B6.14B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow662.00M520.00M1.43B639.00M6.01B1.64B
Operating Cash Flow1.26B1.27B2.13B1.26B6.56B1.91B
Investing Cash Flow-663.00M-757.00M-687.00M-596.00M-334.00M-317.00M
Financing Cash Flow-287.00M-816.00M-498.00M-1.98B-5.13B-761.00M

Yancoal Australia Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price5.96
Price Trends
50DMA
5.71
Positive
100DMA
6.14
Positive
200DMA
6.10
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.16
Negative
RSI
72.03
Negative
STOCH
73.55
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:YAL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 5.96 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.94, above the 50-day MA of 5.71, and below the 200-day MA of 6.10, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.16 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 72.03 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 73.55 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:YAL.

Yancoal Australia Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
70
Neutral
AU$2.83B-49.67-2.42%3.76%-6.27%-1593.02%
68
Neutral
AU$8.48B28.873.26%2.96%-1.15%-69.35%
65
Neutral
$15.17B7.614.09%5.20%3.87%-62.32%
63
Neutral
AU$7.30B18.646.64%1.12%-7.39%-39.72%
59
Neutral
AU$5.41B34.765.87%3.10%-20.55%-72.75%
47
Neutral
AU$427.50M-0.43-135.56%2.97%-7.35%-115.78%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AU:YAL
Yancoal Australia
6.49
1.34
25.90%
AU:NHC
New Hope Corporation Limited
6.45
2.24
53.21%
AU:WHC
Whitehaven Coal Limited
8.96
2.80
45.34%
AU:SMR
Stanmore Resources Ltd
3.11
1.46
88.83%
AU:CRN
Coronado Global Resources Inc. Shs Chess Depository Interests Repr 10 Sh
0.25
-0.09
-26.47%

Yancoal Australia Corporate Events

Yancoal Adjusts Capital Structure as 2024 LTIP Rights Lapse
Sep 2, 2026
Yancoal Australia has notified the market of the cessation of 618,769 performance share rights from its 2024 long-term incentive plan, effective 1 September 2026. The adjustment to its issued capital reflects changes in executive or employee equit...
Yancoal Updates Market on Lapsed 2024 LTIP Performance Rights
Sep 2, 2026
Yancoal Australia has updated the market on its 2024 long‑term incentive plan (LTIP), confirming that 618,769 performance share rights scheduled to vest in December 2026 have lapsed following employee departures. As a result, 859,415 2024 LT...
Yancoal files monthly Hong Kong securities return with no change in share capital
Sep 2, 2026
Yancoal Australia has filed its latest monthly return with Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing for the period ended 31 August 2026. The submission covers movements in its securities, including Hong Kong depositary receipts, and confirms that authoris...
Yancoal Renews Connected Coal Sales Agreements With Major Shareholder Group
Aug 25, 2026
Yancoal Australia has renewed its framework agreements governing coal sales to its controlling shareholder Yankuang Energy and to YIT, a wholly owned subsidiary of Shandong Energy. The new agreements will apply from 1 November 2026 to 31 December ...
Yancoal Doubles 2026 Coal Sales Cap Under Glencore Agreement
Aug 24, 2026
Yancoal Australia has revised the annual cap on its continuing connected transactions under the Glencore Framework Coal Sales Agreement for 2026. The company now expects aggregate coal sales to Glencore and related entities to reach up to US$750 m...
Yancoal Australia Adds New Director Without Shareholding Change
Aug 24, 2026
Yancoal Australia Ltd is a publicly listed coal mining company based in Australia, focused on the production and sale of thermal and metallurgical coal to domestic and international markets. The company operates multiple mining assets and supplies...
Yancoal Australia Discloses Departure of Director Ang Li
Aug 24, 2026
Yancoal Australia has notified the ASX that Ang Li ceased to be a director of the company effective 19 August 2026. The filing confirms that, at the time of departure, Ang Li held no relevant interests in Yancoal securities, either directly as a r...
Yancoal lodges July 2026 HKEX monthly return with no capital changes
Aug 3, 2026
Yancoal Australia has filed its monthly return notice with the Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited for the period ending 31 July 2026, covering movements in its listed securities and Hong Kong Depositary Receipts. The company reported no appl...
Yancoal to Release 2Q 2026 Results and Host Investor Webcast
Jul 13, 2026
Yancoal Australia will release its second-quarter 2026 report on 20 July, with the publication scheduled for after 6:30 p.m. AEST. The update is expected to provide investors and analysts with detailed information on recent operational and financi...
Yancoal Files Routine Monthly Securities Return with HKEX
Jul 7, 2026
Yancoal Australia Ltd has submitted its monthly return notice to Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing for the month ended 30 June 2026, covering movements in its listed securities and Hong Kong depositary receipts. The filing notes that authorised or ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 20, 2026