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Yancoal Australia
(Sydney:YAL)
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Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
AU$7.00
â–²(17.45% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/20/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial flexibility from a low-leverage balance sheet and a generally positive earnings call with solid FY2026 operating guidance. Offsetting this are weakened and volatile earnings/cash flow versus cycle highs, a still-challenged longer-term technical trend (below 100/200-day averages), and a relatively high P/E for a cyclical coal name with only a moderate dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Production growth
Record first-half production and progress toward the upper half of FY2026 guidance indicate strong operating execution across the mining portfolio. Higher saleable volumes can support revenue growth, improve fixed-cost absorption, and strengthen Yancoal’s competitive position over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Cyclical earnings decline
The multi-year revenue decline and sharp reduction in net income demonstrate high exposure to the coal cycle and limited earnings consistency. Even with positive current operations, this volatility can constrain dividend visibility, investment planning, and confidence in normalized profitability.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Production growth
Record first-half production and progress toward the upper half of FY2026 guidance indicate strong operating execution across the mining portfolio. Higher saleable volumes can support revenue growth, improve fixed-cost absorption, and strengthen Yancoal’s competitive position over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Yancoal Australia (YAL) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$8.48B
Dividend Yield2.96%
Average Volume (3M)2.80M
Price to Earnings (P/E)28.9
Beta (1Y)-0.60
Revenue Growth-1.15%
EPS Growth-69.35%
CountryAU
Employees3,900
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryCoal
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.22
Shares Outstanding1,320,439,500
10 Day Avg. Volume3,376,869
30 Day Avg. Volume2,802,702
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.23
Price to Book (P/B)0.72
Price to Sales (P/S)1.11
P/FCF Ratio12.57
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$7.14Price Target Upside19.72% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)0.63
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$6.96B
Yancoal Australia Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Yancoal Australia Ltd is actively involved in the entire lifecycle of coal production, encompassing the exploration, development, extraction, and global distribution of both metallurgical and thermal coal. The company's reach extends across numero...
How the Company Makes Money
Yancoal Australia makes money primarily by mining coal and selling it to customers under a mix of term contracts and spot/shorter-term arrangements. Its main revenue stream is the sale of thermal coal and metallurgical coal, with sales volumes and...
Yancoal Australia Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 19, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 19, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a predominantly positive operational and financial story: record first-half production, double-digit revenue growth, a 29% rise in operating EBITDA, low cash costs relative to peers, strong cash balance and maintained dividends. Key negatives were largely accounting-driven non‑operating items (totaling ~$272 million) that materially reduced statutory profits (PBT $56m; NPAT $17m), diesel cost inflation pressure, safety metric deterioration (TRIFR) that is being addressed, and the near-term financing and integration implications of the Kestrel acquisition (significant cash outlay, contingent payments and planned debt raising). Overall the strengths (recurring operational performance, cash position, EBITDA growth, strategic acquisition) outweigh the lowlights, though investors should note the noncash accounting items and the near-term balance sheet / cost sensitivities associated with Kestrel and fuel prices.Positive Updates
Record First-Half Production
Attributable saleable coal production reached a first-half record of 19.8 million tonnes (ROM production 32.5 million tonnes). Attributable production was up ~5% versus the first half last year and Yancoal is on track to deliver in the upper half of FY2026 guidance (36.5–40.5 Mt).
Negative Updates
Large Non‑Operating / Accounting Items Reduced Statutory Profits
Non‑operating items totaled ~$272 million, largely noncash, including a $188 million hedge reversal (FX translation) and a $49 million impairment on the Middlemount equity investment. This reduced statutory profit before tax to $56 million and profit after tax to $17 million despite strong operating results.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record First-Half Production
Attributable saleable coal production reached a first-half record of 19.8 million tonnes (ROM production 32.5 million tonnes). Attributable production was up ~5% versus the first half last year and Yancoal is on track to deliver in the upper half of FY2026 guidance (36.5–40.5 Mt).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Guidance for FY2026 is to deliver attributable saleable production in the upper half of the 36.5–40.5 Mt range (after a record H1 of 19.8 Mt), cash operating costs of A$90–98/t (H1 was A$96/t and management expects the full‑year outcome in the upper half of that range given diesel), revised capital expenditure guidance of A$600–750m (down A$150m from prior guidance; H1 capex A$254m), and continued dividend discipline (an interim A$92.4m payment = A$0.07/share, fully franked, with policy targeting ~50% of NPAT or free cash flow); the group held A$2.1bn cash at 30 June (about half expected to be used towards the upfront US$1.85bn Kestrel consideration with potential US$550m contingent payments), Kestrel completion is targeted around the start of October, and pro‑rata gearing after taking on debt for Kestrel is expected to be ~15–18%.Yancoal Australia Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
66
Positive
Balance Sheet
90
Very Positive
Cash Flow
61
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 6.19B | 5.88B | 6.77B | 7.80B | 10.66B | 5.52B |
| Gross Profit | 2.24B | 2.27B | 5.37B | 4.55B | 7.51B | 2.70B |
| EBITDA | 1.36B | 1.45B | 2.47B | 3.51B | 6.34B | 2.18B |
| Net Income | 294.00M | 440.00M | 1.22B | 1.82B | 3.59B | 791.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 11.99B | 12.21B | 12.36B | 11.81B | 13.37B | 12.34B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.09B | 2.13B | 2.46B | 1.40B | 2.70B | 1.50B |
| Total Debt | 60.00M | 84.00M | 112.00M | 146.00M | 673.00M | 3.44B |
| Total Liabilities | 2.97B | 3.17B | 3.04B | 3.37B | 5.34B | 6.19B |
| Stockholders Equity | 9.02B | 9.03B | 9.31B | 8.44B | 8.03B | 6.14B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 662.00M | 520.00M | 1.43B | 639.00M | 6.01B | 1.64B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.26B | 1.27B | 2.13B | 1.26B | 6.56B | 1.91B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -663.00M | -757.00M | -687.00M | -596.00M | -334.00M | -317.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -287.00M | -816.00M | -498.00M | -1.98B | -5.13B | -761.00M |
Yancoal Australia Technical Analysis
Positive
5.96
Price Trends
5.71
Positive
6.14
Positive
6.10
Positive
Market Momentum
0.16
Negative
72.03
Negative
73.55
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:YAL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 5.96 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.94, above the 50-day MA of 5.71, and below the 200-day MA of 6.10, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.16 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 72.03 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 73.55 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:YAL.
Yancoal Australia Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Neutral | AU$2.83B | -49.67 | -2.42% | 3.76% | -6.27% | -1593.02% | |
68 Neutral | AU$8.48B | 28.87 | 3.26% | 2.96% | -1.15% | -69.35% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
63 Neutral | AU$7.30B | 18.64 | 6.64% | 1.12% | -7.39% | -39.72% | |
59 Neutral | AU$5.41B | 34.76 | 5.87% | 3.10% | -20.55% | -72.75% | |
47 Neutral | AU$427.50M | -0.43 | -135.56% | 2.97% | -7.35% | -115.78% |
* Energy Sector Average
AU:YAL
Yancoal Australia
6.49
1.34
25.90%
AU:NHC
New Hope Corporation Limited
6.45
2.24
53.21%
AU:WHC
Whitehaven Coal Limited
8.96
2.80
45.34%
AU:SMR
Stanmore Resources Ltd
3.11
1.46
88.83%
AU:CRN
Coronado Global Resources Inc. Shs Chess Depository Interests Repr 10 Sh
0.25
-0.09
-26.47%
Yancoal Australia Corporate Events
Yancoal Adjusts Capital Structure as 2024 LTIP Rights Lapse
Sep 2, 2026
Yancoal Australia has notified the market of the cessation of 618,769 performance share rights from its 2024 long-term incentive plan, effective 1 September 2026. The adjustment to its issued capital reflects changes in executive or employee equit...
Yancoal Updates Market on Lapsed 2024 LTIP Performance Rights
Sep 2, 2026
Yancoal Australia has updated the market on its 2024 long‑term incentive plan (LTIP), confirming that 618,769 performance share rights scheduled to vest in December 2026 have lapsed following employee departures. As a result, 859,415 2024 LT...
Yancoal files monthly Hong Kong securities return with no change in share capital
Sep 2, 2026
Yancoal Australia has filed its latest monthly return with Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing for the period ended 31 August 2026. The submission covers movements in its securities, including Hong Kong depositary receipts, and confirms that authoris...
Yancoal Renews Connected Coal Sales Agreements With Major Shareholder Group
Aug 25, 2026
Yancoal Australia has renewed its framework agreements governing coal sales to its controlling shareholder Yankuang Energy and to YIT, a wholly owned subsidiary of Shandong Energy. The new agreements will apply from 1 November 2026 to 31 December ...
Yancoal Doubles 2026 Coal Sales Cap Under Glencore Agreement
Aug 24, 2026
Yancoal Australia has revised the annual cap on its continuing connected transactions under the Glencore Framework Coal Sales Agreement for 2026. The company now expects aggregate coal sales to Glencore and related entities to reach up to US$750 m...
Yancoal Australia Adds New Director Without Shareholding Change
Aug 24, 2026
Yancoal Australia Ltd is a publicly listed coal mining company based in Australia, focused on the production and sale of thermal and metallurgical coal to domestic and international markets. The company operates multiple mining assets and supplies...
Yancoal Australia Discloses Departure of Director Ang Li
Aug 24, 2026
Yancoal Australia has notified the ASX that Ang Li ceased to be a director of the company effective 19 August 2026. The filing confirms that, at the time of departure, Ang Li held no relevant interests in Yancoal securities, either directly as a r...
Yancoal lodges July 2026 HKEX monthly return with no capital changes
Aug 3, 2026
Yancoal Australia has filed its monthly return notice with the Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited for the period ending 31 July 2026, covering movements in its listed securities and Hong Kong Depositary Receipts. The company reported no appl...
Yancoal to Release 2Q 2026 Results and Host Investor Webcast
Jul 13, 2026
Yancoal Australia will release its second-quarter 2026 report on 20 July, with the publication scheduled for after 6:30 p.m. AEST. The update is expected to provide investors and analysts with detailed information on recent operational and financi...
Yancoal Files Routine Monthly Securities Return with HKEX
Jul 7, 2026
Yancoal Australia Ltd has submitted its monthly return notice to Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing for the month ended 30 June 2026, covering movements in its listed securities and Hong Kong depositary receipts. The filing notes that authorised or ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.