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New Hope Corporation Limited
(Sydney:NHC)
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Rating:62Neutral
Price Target:
AU$7.00
▲(17.65% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:09/17/26
The score is driven primarily by financially durable fundamentals (low leverage and continued positive cash flow) offset by a significant decline in profitability and returns since 2023. Technicals are supportive but currently overbought, and valuation is a headwind due to a high P/E relative to the recent earnings compression.
Positive Factors
Low Leverage
Conservative leverage provides resilience through a cyclical operating environment and reduces financial strain when earnings weaken. A solid equity base and stable assets also preserve flexibility to fund operations, maintain investment, and absorb commodity-driven volatility over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Sharp Margin Compression
The substantial decline in net margin indicates that earnings power has reset well below peak-cycle levels. Weaker pricing or realizations and higher costs are reducing profitability, making future results more dependent on commodity conditions and limiting the durability of recent earnings.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Low Leverage
Conservative leverage provides resilience through a cyclical operating environment and reduces financial strain when earnings weaken. A solid equity base and stable assets also preserve flexibility to fund operations, maintain investment, and absorb commodity-driven volatility over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
New Hope Corporation Limited (NHC) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$4.95B
Dividend Yield6.83%
Average Volume (3M)3.17M
Price to Earnings (P/E)30.7
Beta (1Y)-0.13
Revenue Growth0.19%
EPS Growth-63.33%
CountryAU
Employees1,339
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryCoal
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.19
Shares Outstanding844,185,550
10 Day Avg. Volume3,565,194
30 Day Avg. Volume3,171,321
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.43
Price to Book (P/B)1.67
Price to Sales (P/S)2.50
P/FCF Ratio11.55
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$6.40Price Target Upside7.56% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)0.48
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$2.21B
New Hope Corporation Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
New Hope Corporation Limited engages in the development and operation of coal mines. It operates through three segments: Coal Mining in Queensland, Coal Mining in New South Wales, and Other. The company holds interests in the New Acland mine, an o...
How the Company Makes Money
NHC makes money primarily by selling products and services across multiple agribusiness stages: (1) Animal nutrition/feed: revenue is generated from manufacturing and selling compound animal feed and related nutrition products to external customer...
New Hope Corporation Limited Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Sep 14, 2026
(Q4-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Mar 22, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was strongly constructive, with record-level cash generation, higher EBITDA, FY2026 production above guidance, strong Bengalla performance, and continued progress at New Acland. These positives were tempered by the increase in high-potential safety events, rail disruptions affecting New Acland sales, quarterly Bengalla cost volatility, ongoing inflationary impacts, and pending worker contract negotiations.Positive Updates
Strong Fourth-Quarter EBITDA Growth
Underlying EBITDA was $169 million in the quarter, up 30% from the previous quarter. The uplift was driven by improvements in realized pricing, including favorable movements in benchmark indices and foreign exchange.
Negative Updates
High-Potential Event Frequency Increased
Although the total recordable injury frequency rate decreased to 3.89, down 12% from the previous quarter, high-potential event frequency increased unfavorably from 1.21 to 4.65. Management also referenced two recent fatalities across the east coast mining industry.
Read all updates
Q4-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Fourth-Quarter EBITDA Growth
Underlying EBITDA was $169 million in the quarter, up 30% from the previous quarter. The uplift was driven by improvements in realized pricing, including favorable movements in benchmark indices and foreign exchange.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management said New Acland is ramping toward its 5 million tonnes per annum target, with access to the Manning Vale West pit scheduled for the second half of the calendar year 2026, first coal beginning of next calendar year and, subsequently, “first quarter calendar year next year”; around $130 million is required to complete the pit, and the target probably hasn’t changed, although the operation is “probably a little bit ahead of schedule.” Bengalla’s strip ratio is expected to remain “in the 4s on average for Bengalla for the life of the mine,” while Acland’s strip ratio is “probably a fair estimate” in “the range of 4.” Bengalla’s FY2026 FOB cash cost was $81.30 per sales tonne, “right at the lower end” of the guidance range of between $81 to $89 per sales tonne.New Hope Corporation Limited Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
58
Neutral
Balance Sheet
76
Positive
Cash Flow
67
Positive
| Breakdown | Jul 2026 | Jul 2025 | Jul 2024 | Jul 2023 | Jul 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.75B | 1.75B | 1.77B | 2.70B | 2.54B |
| Gross Profit | 622.83M | 801.96M | 859.09M | 1.74B | 1.55B |
| EBITDA | 512.05M | 827.80M | 873.83M | 1.70B | 1.57B |
| Net Income | 160.96M | 439.37M | 475.86M | 1.09B | 983.01M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 3.61B | 3.54B | 3.47B | 3.24B | 3.43B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 778.50M | 707.28M | 824.52M | 730.65M | 815.71M |
| Total Debt | 389.23M | 372.85M | 372.87M | 84.92M | 288.52M |
| Total Liabilities | 999.90M | 911.04M | 925.42M | 721.90M | 1.11B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.61B | 2.63B | 2.54B | 2.52B | 2.32B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 378.89M | 259.61M | 289.66M | 1.34B | 1.06B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 564.13M | 570.80M | 561.96M | 1.52B | 1.14B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -161.04M | -505.35M | -508.54M | -98.29M | -222.52M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -249.56M | -372.75M | -145.40M | -1.41B | -628.13M |
New Hope Corporation Limited Technical Analysis
Neutral
5.95
Price Trends
5.89
Negative
5.51
Positive
5.22
Positive
Market Momentum
0.05
Positive
47.32
Neutral
67.72
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:NHC, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 5.95 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.95, above the 50-day MA of 5.89, and above the 200-day MA of 5.22, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.05 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 47.32 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 67.72 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for AU:NHC.
New Hope Corporation Limited Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Neutral | AU$2.33B | -41.89 | -2.42% | 4.53% | -6.27% | -1593.02% | |
68 Neutral | AU$7.95B | 27.46 | 3.26% | 3.19% | -1.15% | -69.35% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
64 Neutral | AU$6.34B | 16.67 | 6.64% | 1.28% | -7.39% | -39.72% | |
62 Neutral | AU$4.95B | 30.74 | 6.17% | 6.83% | 0.19% | -63.33% | |
44 Neutral | AU$69.26M | -0.95 | -37.07% | 4.83% | -21.07% | -150.50% | |
44 Neutral | AU$251.47M | -0.27 | -135.56% | 2.97% | -7.35% | -115.78% |
* Energy Sector Average
AU:NHC
New Hope Corporation Limited
5.99
2.06
52.53%
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AU:CRN
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New Hope Corporation Limited Corporate Events
New Hope Corporation Declares Final FY2026 Dividend of AUD 0.30 Per Share
Sep 14, 2026
New Hope Corporation Limited has declared an ordinary final dividend of AUD 0.30 per share for the financial year ending 31 July 2026, payable on its ordinary fully paid shares. The payment date is set for 15 October 2026, with the ex-dividend dat...
New Hope profit tumbles but final dividend lifted as asset portfolio reshaped
Sep 14, 2026
New Hope Corporation reported statutory revenue of $1.77 billion for the year ended 31 July 2026, broadly flat compared with the prior year, while net profit attributable to members fell 63.4% to $160.96 million. Net tangible assets per security e...
New Hope lifts coal resources as Bengalla and New Acland models upgraded
Sep 14, 2026
New Hope Corporation Limited has reported a substantial increase in coal resources across its portfolio, led by updated geological models at the Bengalla and New Acland mines prepared under the JORC Code 2012. Exploration drilling and model revisi...
New Hope sets date for 2026 full-year results and investor webcast
Sep 7, 2026
New Hope Corporation Limited will release its 2026 full-year financial results for the period ending 31 July 2026 on 15 September 2026. The company will accompany the release with an investor and analyst webcast led by Chief Executive Officer Rob ...
New Hope Converts Unquoted Securities Into 139,394 New Ordinary Shares
Aug 21, 2026
New Hope Corporation Limited has announced the issue of 139,394 ordinary fully paid shares following the conversion or exercise of previously unquoted equity securities. The new shares, which relate to unquoted options or other convertible instrum...
New Hope Posts Strong Coal Earnings and Volumes as Safety Focus Intensifies
Aug 16, 2026
New Hope Corporation Limited reported a strong operational year, with run-of-mine coal output rising to 16.9 million tonnes and saleable production of 11.5 million tonnes, both above guidance. Coal sales reached 11.8 million tonnes, up 11.8 per ce...
New Hope schedules investor webcast for July-quarter 2026 results
Aug 9, 2026
New Hope Corporation Limited will release its Quarterly Activities Report for the quarter ending 31 July 2026 on 17 August 2026, providing investors with an update on its operational and financial performance. The company continues its practice of...
New Hope flags lapse of 47,704 performance rights after vesting conditions unmet
Aug 6, 2026
New Hope Corporation Limited has announced a change to its issued capital structure, notifying the market that a tranche of performance rights has ceased. The update reflects the company’s ongoing management of equity-based incentives and hi...
New Hope Corporation Expands Equity Base With Conversion of Unquoted Securities
Aug 6, 2026
New Hope Corporation Limited has notified the ASX of the conversion of unquoted options or other convertible securities into 54,745 ordinary fully paid shares. The new shares, issued on 23 September 2022, represent an increase in the company’...
JPMorgan Ceases to Be Substantial Holder in New Hope Corporation
Jun 18, 2026
JPMorgan Chase Co. and a range of its global affiliates have notified New Hope Corporation that they have ceased to be a substantial holder in the company as of 16 June 2026. The change reflects a series of transactions and securities-lending rel...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.