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Viva Energy Group Ltd.
(Sydney:VEA)
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Rating:47Neutral
Price Target:
AU$2.00
â–¼(-20.95% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:03/21/26
The score is held down primarily by deteriorating profitability and a significantly weakened balance sheet with sharply higher leverage and falling equity. Technicals are supportive (price above key moving averages and positive MACD) but show signs of being overextended (high RSI/Stoch). Valuation is mixed, with losses (negative P/E) offset only modestly by a mid-level dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Integrated refinery and retail network
Owning the Geelong refinery plus a branded service-station network gives Viva vertical integration across refining, supply and retail. This durable structure helps capture margins across the chain, secures supply for customers and supports long-term commercial resilience despite commodity cycles.
Negative Factors
Sharply increased leverage
Debt rising and equity falling pushed leverage to very high levels in 2025, materially reducing financial flexibility. Elevated leverage raises refinancing, interest and covenant risk and amplifies earnings sensitivity, limiting strategic options over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Integrated refinery and retail network
Owning the Geelong refinery plus a branded service-station network gives Viva vertical integration across refining, supply and retail. This durable structure helps capture margins across the chain, secures supply for customers and supports long-term commercial resilience despite commodity cycles.
Read all positive factors
Viva Energy Group Ltd. (VEA) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$3.51B
Dividend Yield3.21%
Average Volume (3M)3.95M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.40
Revenue Growth-5.35%
EPS Growth-449.16%
CountryAU
Employees15,201
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.26
Shares Outstanding1,642,521,000
10 Day Avg. Volume2,886,009
30 Day Avg. Volume3,951,103
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.02
Price to Book (P/B)2.30
Price to Sales (P/S)0.11
P/FCF Ratio22.47
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$2.64Price Target Upside4.40% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)0.33
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$29.80B
Viva Energy Group Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Viva Energy Group Limited functions as a prominent energy provider with operations spanning Australia, Singapore, and Papua New Guinea. Its operations are structured across three primary segments: Retail, Fuels and Marketing; Refining; and Supply,...
How the Company Makes Money
Viva Energy primarily makes money by manufacturing, importing, and wholesaling refined petroleum products and by selling fuel and convenience-related offerings through its distribution channels. A core earnings driver is the margin between the cos...
Viva Energy Group Ltd. Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
38
Negative
Balance Sheet
22
Negative
Cash Flow
56
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 28.53B | 29.99B | 26.74B | 26.43B | 15.87B |
| Gross Profit | 1.79B | 2.95B | 1.34B | 1.69B | 1.04B |
| EBITDA | 940.60M | 625.30M | 562.40M | 1.34B | 923.00M |
| Net Income | -421.10M | -76.30M | 3.80M | 514.30M | 232.90M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 13.40B | 12.13B | 9.08B | 9.31B | 8.02B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 170.50M | 192.70M | 215.50M | 290.50M | 96.70M |
| Total Debt | 9.17B | 5.53B | 3.00B | 2.46B | 2.67B |
| Total Liabilities | 11.97B | 10.23B | 7.07B | 6.95B | 5.91B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.43B | 1.90B | 2.01B | 2.36B | 2.11B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 145.80M | 17.50M | 181.60M | 802.70M | 342.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 703.30M | 605.60M | 674.30M | 1.11B | 528.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -628.60M | -1.54B | -694.30M | -284.50M | -217.40M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -96.90M | 909.10M | -55.00M | -628.10M | -263.00M |
Viva Energy Group Ltd. Technical Analysis
Positive
2.53
Price Trends
2.23
Negative
2.19
Negative
2.05
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.04
Negative
49.00
Neutral
64.67
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:VEA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 2.53 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.15, above the 50-day MA of 2.23, and above the 200-day MA of 2.05, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.04 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 49.00 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 64.67 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:VEA.
Viva Energy Group Ltd. Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | AU$52.93B | 13.38 | 7.67% | 7.16% | -5.14% | -22.20% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
65 Neutral | AU$23.01B | 18.83 | 5.26% | 6.00% | -5.72% | -31.55% | |
63 Neutral | AU$991.19M | 5.79 | 12.44% | 4.74% | -17.21% | 8.09% | |
60 Neutral | AU$1.91B | -15.34 | -3.66% | 7.72% | 11.40% | -225.74% | |
56 Neutral | AU$8.07B | 99.84 | 2.68% | 1.40% | -10.26% | -32.72% | |
47 Neutral | AU$3.51B | -8.25 | -27.20% | 3.21% | -5.35% | -449.16% |
* Energy Sector Average
AU:VEA
Viva Energy Group Ltd.
2.14
-0.06
-2.95%
AU:BPT
Beach Energy
0.84
-0.42
-33.28%
AU:ALD
Ampol Limited
33.88
8.86
35.41%
AU:KAR
Karoon Energy Ltd
1.40
-0.45
-24.27%
AU:STO
Santos Limited
7.10
-0.26
-3.48%
AU:WDS
Woodside Energy Group
27.87
5.63
25.29%
Viva Energy Group Ltd. Corporate Events
Viva Energy strengthens board with appointment of energy sector veteran Sally Martin
Jul 2, 2026
Viva Energy Group Ltd. has appointed Sally Martin as an independent non-executive director, effective 1 September 2026. Martin brings extensive international experience across refining, trading, distribution and high-risk operations, built over a ...
State Street Group Drops Below Substantial Holder Threshold in Viva Energy
Jul 2, 2026
State Street Corporation and a group of its global asset management and banking subsidiaries have lodged a notice with Viva Energy Group Ltd. advising that they have ceased to be substantial holders in the company. The filing, made under section 6...
State Street Group ceases to be substantial holder in Viva Energy
Jun 26, 2026
Viva Energy Group Limited has disclosed that State Street Corporation and several of its asset management subsidiaries, including State Street Global Advisors entities, have ceased to be substantial shareholders in the company as of 24 June 2026. ...
Viva Energy Restores Key Geelong Refinery Unit as Alkylation Outage Persists
Jun 23, 2026
Viva Energy has completed the restart of the Residue Catalytic Cracking Unit at its Geelong Refinery, restoring a key processing capability and lifting production to more than 90 percent of normal capacity after an April fire. The restart enhances...
State Street Group Ceases to Be Substantial Holder in Viva Energy
May 22, 2026
State Street Corporation and several of its asset management subsidiaries have notified Viva Energy Group Limited that they have ceased to be substantial shareholders in the company as of 20 May 2026. The change reflects a reduction in their relev...
Viva Energy Shareholders Back All Resolutions at 2026 AGM
May 21, 2026
Viva Energy Group Ltd. reported that all resolutions put to shareholders at its 2026 Annual General Meeting were passed by poll, with the hybrid meeting accessible via webcast on the company’s website. The adoption of the remuneration report...
Viva Energy Director Trims Shareholding to Cover Tax Obligations
May 7, 2026
Viva Energy Group Limited has disclosed a change in the shareholding of director Scott Wyatt, who conducted an on‑market sale of 250,000 ordinary shares on 5 May 2026 to meet tax obligations. Following the transaction, Wyatt’s direct h...
Viva Energy Targets June Restart for Geelong Refinery RCCU After April Fire
May 3, 2026
Viva Energy has provided an operational update following the 15 April fire at its Geelong Refinery, confirming that work to secure and isolate the affected alkylation unit is progressing without major impediments. The company expects repairs that ...
Viva Energy Announces Departure of Director Nicola Wakefield Evans
May 1, 2026
Viva Energy Group Limited has announced that director Nicola Wakefield Evans AM ceased to be a director of the company effective 30 April 2026. The filing discloses that she holds no securities as a registered holder, but has an indirect interest ...
Viva Energy Director Sarah Ryan Increases Shareholding Through On-Market Purchase
Apr 23, 2026
Viva Energy Group has disclosed a change in director Sarah Ryan’s interests, with Ryan acquiring 20,000 additional ordinary shares in the company via an on-market trade. The transaction, completed on 21 April 2026 for approximately $46,964, ...
Viva Energy Issues 281,698 New Shares Following Conversion of Unquoted Securities
Apr 21, 2026
Viva Energy Group Ltd. has notified the market of the issue of 281,698 new ordinary fully paid shares on 21 April 2026, following the exercise or conversion of previously unquoted options or other convertible securities. The issuance, disclosed vi...
Viva Energy Announces Lapse of 116,766 Deferred Share Rights
Apr 21, 2026
Viva Energy Group Limited has notified the market of changes to its issued capital following the lapse of a tranche of deferred share rights. The affected securities, identified as VEAAC deferred share rights, have ceased after certain conditions ...
Viva Energy Issues New Unquoted Equity Rights Under Employee Incentive Scheme
Apr 21, 2026
Viva Energy Group Limited has issued 1,338,488 deferred share rights and 3,393,514 performance rights under its employee incentive schemes, with the new securities unquoted on the ASX. The move reinforces the company’s use of equity incentiv...
Viva Energy lifts fuel volumes and margins as Geelong refinery weathers Middle East disruption
Apr 19, 2026
Viva Energy reported that its Geelong refinery has maintained robust crude supply despite Middle East conflict disruptions, with firm feedstock secured through July and import flows supported by its Vitol partnership. The refinery ran at full prod...
Viva Energy Moves to Restore Geelong Refinery After Gasoline Unit Fire
Apr 19, 2026
Viva Energy has reported a fire in the Alkylation Unit of the Gasoline complex at its Geelong Refinery, which occurred on the evening of 15 April and was fully extinguished the following morning without injuries. Key processing units such as the c...
Viva Energy Halts Trading After Significant Fire at Geelong Refinery
Apr 15, 2026
Viva Energy Group Ltd. has requested a trading halt on its securities on the ASX following a significant fire at its Geelong Refinery, with trading suspended until an announcement detailing the impact is released or until normal trading resumes on...
Viva Energy Sets May 2026 AGM, Underscoring Governance and National Fuel Network
Apr 13, 2026
Viva Energy Group Limited, a major Australian convenience retail, fuel supply and energy infrastructure operator, runs over 1,280 retail stores and supplies nearly 1,550 service stations nationwide. The company also owns the Geelong Refinery in Vi...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.