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Sandfire Resources Limited
(Sydney:SFR)
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Rating:75Outperform
Price Target:
AU$27.00
▲(18.53% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/27/26
The score is driven primarily by stronger financial performance (deleveraging to net cash and sharply improved cash generation) and a positive earnings outlook with reaffirmed guidance and capital returns. Technicals support the uptrend, but overbought signals increase near-term downside risk. The biggest offset is valuation: the high P/E implies elevated expectations and reduces margin for error.
Positive Factors
De-risked Balance Sheet
The sharp reduction in debt and move to net cash materially improve financial resilience. Lower interest obligations and a stronger equity base give Sandfire greater flexibility to fund mine development, exploration and shareholder returns through commodity cycles.
Negative Factors
Commodity-Cycle Earnings Volatility
The uneven multi-year earnings record shows exposure to copper prices, grades, recoveries and operating conditions. Although the latest rebound is strong, this cyclicality can make cash generation and returns less predictable over the next several years.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
De-risked Balance Sheet
The sharp reduction in debt and move to net cash materially improve financial resilience. Lower interest obligations and a stronger equity base give Sandfire greater flexibility to fund mine development, exploration and shareholder returns through commodity cycles.
Read all positive factors
Sandfire Resources Limited (SFR) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$10.50B
Dividend Yield0%
Average Volume (3M)1.65M
Price to Earnings (P/E)21.4
Beta (1Y)1.96
Revenue Growth31.56%
EPS Growth256.29%
CountryAU
Employees1,355
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryCopper
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.76
Shares Outstanding467,932,680
10 Day Avg. Volume1,992,051
30 Day Avg. Volume1,654,053
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.08
Price to Book (P/B)4.01
Price to Sales (P/S)5.28
P/FCF Ratio16.53
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$20.13Price Target Upside-11.63% Downside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering11
EPS Forecast (FY)1.06
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$1.89B
Sandfire Resources Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Sandfire Resources Limited operates as a mining enterprise, specializing in the prospecting, appraisal, and advancement of various mineral deposits and ventures. Its core exploration activities concentrate on discovering reserves of copper, gold, ...
How the Company Makes Money
Sandfire makes money primarily by selling copper-bearing products produced from its mines. Its core revenue stream is the sale of copper concentrate (and associated by-product credits where applicable) into global metals markets under offtake/sale...
Sandfire Resources Limited Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 25, 2026
(Q4-2026)
| Next Earnings Date:Feb 25, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call communicated a strongly positive operational and financial year — record revenue, record throughput and sizeable EBITDA increases at both Motheo and MATSA, a strengthened balance sheet (net cash $353m), a maiden reserve at A1 and multiple encouraging exploration results. Those positives were tempered by a tragic workplace fatality, rising unit costs (driven by A4 transition, royalties and fuel), a higher tax charge and weather-related delays at Kalkaroo, plus some execution and concentrate-pricing volatility risk. On balance the company demonstrated resilient cash generation, disciplined capital allocation (first dividend in >4 years) and material exploration optionality, while acknowledging risks to manage.Positive Updates
Record Financial Performance
FY'26 sales revenue of $1.7 billion and underlying EBITDA of $867 million; underlying profit tripled to $350 million and statutory profit $354 million, demonstrating strong cash generation.
Negative Updates
Workplace Fatality and Safety Impact
Company reported its first ever fatality (contractor) at Magdalena on 25 February 2026; TRIF declined incrementally to 1.6 — a significant human and reputational setback highlighted as the most difficult year despite favorable benchmark TRIF.
Read all updates
Q4-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Financial Performance
FY'26 sales revenue of $1.7 billion and underlying EBITDA of $867 million; underlying profit tripled to $350 million and statutory profit $354 million, demonstrating strong cash generation.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reiterated FY‑27 production guidance is unchanged and provided cost and capital guidance: operating unit costs are expected to be $90/tonne at MATSA and $47/tonne at Motheo (both ~$1/tonne higher year‑on‑year) with both assets forecast to operate at under $1.00/lb payable copper on a C1 basis; total FY‑27 capital expenditure is guided to $299 million (with ~$51 million allocated to Kalkaroo). Exploration and development plans include a 27% step‑up in drilling to ~55 km across the Iberian Pyrite and Kalahari belts and the ~130 km Kalkaroo infill/extension program (currently weather‑impacted); Motheo will see a temporary peak in deferred waste stripping in FY‑27 that falls sharply in FY‑28. Balance‑sheet/capital management metrics disclosed include a net cash position of $353 million at 30 June 2026, a prudent net‑cash buffer target in the order of ~$300 million, and a fully franked final dividend of AUD 0.35/share; FY‑26 operating context cited Motheo mill throughput of 6.1 Mt and copper‑equivalent production of 59,700 t, with FY‑26 implied C1 costs of $1.00/lb (Motheo) and $0.88/lb (MATSA).Sandfire Resources Limited Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
86
Very Positive
Cash Flow
82
Very Positive
| Breakdown | Jun 2026 | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.68B | 1.19B | 921.57M | 782.37M | 1.42B |
| Gross Profit | 569.02M | 1.20B | 917.78M | -40.98M | 435.96M |
| EBITDA | 875.18M | 539.76M | 358.32M | 397.19M | 565.76M |
| Net Income | 363.62M | 93.25M | -17.35M | -76.68M | 153.66M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 3.22B | 2.87B | 3.00B | 4.75B | 4.93B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 352.48M | 110.67M | 183.34M | 141.94M | 463.09M |
| Total Debt | 36.42M | 253.24M | 582.58M | 596.59M | 813.90M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.01B | 1.09B | 1.33B | 2.14B | 2.51B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.22B | 1.79B | 1.67B | 2.61B | 2.42B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 537.32M | 337.16M | 122.95M | -372.25M | 252.22M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 746.71M | 523.71M | 344.89M | 113.86M | 536.68M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -240.07M | -185.65M | -215.95M | -297.47M | -1.63B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -263.82M | -411.19M | -86.42M | -124.39M | 1.29B |
Sandfire Resources Limited Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | AU$10.50B | 21.42 | 17.19% | 0.00% | 31.56% | 256.29% | |
62 Neutral | AU$257.19M | 12.91 | 16.52% | 20.20% | 31.20% | ― | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
52 Neutral | AU$309.27M | -8.92 | -14.19% | ― | ― | 78.60% | |
46 Neutral | AU$67.85M | -6.57 | -9.21% | ― | -100.00% | 98.64% | |
44 Neutral | AU$328.70M | -31.21 | -3.91% | ― | ― | 17.44% | |
39 Underperform | AU$162.04M | -13.10 | -242.58% | ― | ― | -79.69% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
AU:SFR
Sandfire Resources Limited
22.59
10.29
83.66%
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94.67%
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Hillgrove Resources Limited
1.18
0.60
101.71%
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Cyprium Metals Limited
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0.25
89.96%
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Caravel Minerals Limited
0.30
0.15
97.37%
AU:TNC
True North Copper
0.36
0.02
5.88%
Sandfire Resources Limited Corporate Events
Sandfire Resources lodges updated ASX corporate governance statement for 2026
Aug 25, 2026
Sandfire Resources Limited has lodged its corporate governance statement for the year ended 30 June 2026 with the ASX, making it available via its website in line with listing rules. The statement, approved by the board, outlines the extent to whi...
Sandfire details FY26 financial results framework and reporting metrics
Aug 25, 2026
Sandfire Resources has released its FY26 financial results presentation, outlining operating and financial information for the year in conjunction with its 2026 Annual Report. The company uses both IFRS and non-IFRS measures, such as Underlying Ea...
Sandfire Resources Declares AUD 0.35 Full-Year Dividend for FY2026
Aug 25, 2026
Sandfire Resources Limited has declared a full-year dividend of AUD 0.35 per ordinary fully paid share for the twelve-month period ended 30 June 2026. The distribution applies to ASX-listed SFR securities and reflects the company’s latest ca...
Sandfire Resources Delivers Strong FY26 Profit Surge and Declares Higher Dividend
Aug 25, 2026
Sandfire Resources reported a strong improvement in its financial performance for the year ended 30 June 2026, with revenue from ordinary activities rising 41% to US$1,653.7 million and net profit attributable to members surging 282% to US$355.8 m...
Sandfire flags reserve growth potential after near-mine exploration success
Aug 25, 2026
Sandfire has reported strong near-mine exploration results across its MATSA and Motheo hubs, confirming high-grade copper and polymetallic mineralisation at several prospects. The work highlights the potential to grow reserves in the Iberian Pyrit...
Sandfire boosts MATSA resource base as reserves adjust to depletion
Aug 25, 2026
Sandfire has reported updated Mineral Resources for MATSA of 190 Mt at 1.2% Cu, 2.7% Zn, 1.0% Pb and 37 g/t Ag, a 12% increase in tonnage versus the prior year. The update reflects higher resource confidence, with significant growth in Measured an...
Sandfire Resources Posts Record Quarter and Strengthens Balance Sheet as Copper Output Climbs
Jul 22, 2026
Sandfire Resources reported a strong operational finish to FY26, driven by higher copper equivalent output at its Motheo and MATSA operations. Group copper equivalent production reached 154.2kt for the year, with Q4 output up 38% to 47.6kt, suppor...
Sandfire Resources Seeks ASX Quotation for Newly Issued Shares
Jul 13, 2026
Sandfire Resources Limited has applied for quotation on the ASX of a small parcel of 1,926 ordinary fully paid shares. These securities are associated with the exercise or conversion of existing options or other convertible instruments, reflecting...
Sandfire Resources Reports Lapse of 10,076 Performance Rights
Jul 13, 2026
Sandfire Resources Limited has notified the market that 10,076 performance rights, trading under the ASX code SFRAAE, have lapsed. The lapse occurred because the conditions attached to these rights were not met or became incapable of being satisfi...
Sandfire boosts Black Butte copper reserves and extends mine life with Lowry integration
Jul 9, 2026
Sandfire Resources has reported an updated pre-feasibility study for the Black Butte Copper Project in Montana, integrating the Lowry deposit into the existing Johnny Lee mine plan. The study outlines an underground operation expected to produce a...
Sandfire Sets Date for June Quarter Report and Investor Call
Jul 8, 2026
Sandfire Resources Limited has scheduled the release of its June 2026 Quarterly Report for Thursday, 23 July 2026, and will host a teleconference and webcast that day for investors and media. The report will be posted on the ASX announcements plat...
Sandfire tightens securities dealing rules for insiders
Jun 25, 2026
Sandfire Resources Limited has updated its Securities Dealing Policy governing how directors, employees, officers and contractors may trade in its securities and those of related entities. The revised policy is designed to ensure personnel act app...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.