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Sandfire Resources Limited
(Sydney:SFR)
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Rating:75Outperform
Price Target:
AU$22.00
â–¼(-3.42% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/27/26
The score is driven primarily by stronger financial performance (deleveraging to net cash and sharply improved cash generation) and a positive earnings outlook with reaffirmed guidance and capital returns. Technicals support the uptrend, but overbought signals increase near-term downside risk. The biggest offset is valuation: the high P/E implies elevated expectations and reduces margin for error.
Positive Factors
Strong earnings and cash generation
The sharp improvement in revenue, EBITDA and operating cash flow shows that the operating portfolio is currently converting production into substantial financial resources. This supports debt reduction, reinvestment and shareholder returns while strengthening resilience through the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Commodity-cycle earnings volatility
The uneven multi-year earnings and cash-flow record demonstrates that strong current results remain exposed to the copper cycle and operating conditions. Such volatility can reduce predictability, complicate capital planning and make future profitability less durable than the latest year alone suggests.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong earnings and cash generation
The sharp improvement in revenue, EBITDA and operating cash flow shows that the operating portfolio is currently converting production into substantial financial resources. This supports debt reduction, reinvestment and shareholder returns while strengthening resilience through the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Sandfire Resources Limited (SFR) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$9.18B
Dividend Yield1.78%
Average Volume (3M)2.07M
Price to Earnings (P/E)19.1
Beta (1Y)1.93
Revenue Growth31.56%
EPS Growth256.29%
CountryAU
Employees1,503
SectorGeneral
Sector StrengthN/A
IndustryCopper
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.76
Shares Outstanding467,954,560
10 Day Avg. Volume2,236,333
30 Day Avg. Volume2,065,780
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.08
Price to Book (P/B)4.01
Price to Sales (P/S)5.28
P/FCF Ratio16.53
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$23.11Price Target Upside1.45% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)1.1
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$1.96B
Sandfire Resources Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Sandfire Resources Limited operates as a mining enterprise, specializing in the prospecting, appraisal, and advancement of various mineral deposits and ventures. Its core exploration activities concentrate on discovering reserves of copper, gold, ...
Sandfire Resources Limited Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 25, 2026
(Q4-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 25, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call communicated a strongly positive operational and financial year — record revenue, record throughput and sizeable EBITDA increases at both Motheo and MATSA, a strengthened balance sheet (net cash $353m), a maiden reserve at A1 and multiple encouraging exploration results. Those positives were tempered by a tragic workplace fatality, rising unit costs (driven by A4 transition, royalties and fuel), a higher tax charge and weather-related delays at Kalkaroo, plus some execution and concentrate-pricing volatility risk. On balance the company demonstrated resilient cash generation, disciplined capital allocation (first dividend in >4 years) and material exploration optionality, while acknowledging risks to manage.Positive Updates
Record Financial Performance
FY'26 sales revenue of $1.7 billion and underlying EBITDA of $867 million; underlying profit tripled to $350 million and statutory profit $354 million, demonstrating strong cash generation.
Negative Updates
Workplace Fatality and Safety Impact
Company reported its first ever fatality (contractor) at Magdalena on 25 February 2026; TRIF declined incrementally to 1.6 — a significant human and reputational setback highlighted as the most difficult year despite favorable benchmark TRIF.
Read all updates
Q4-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Financial Performance
FY'26 sales revenue of $1.7 billion and underlying EBITDA of $867 million; underlying profit tripled to $350 million and statutory profit $354 million, demonstrating strong cash generation.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reiterated FY‑27 production guidance is unchanged and provided cost and capital guidance: operating unit costs are expected to be $90/tonne at MATSA and $47/tonne at Motheo (both ~$1/tonne higher year‑on‑year) with both assets forecast to operate at under $1.00/lb payable copper on a C1 basis; total FY‑27 capital expenditure is guided to $299 million (with ~$51 million allocated to Kalkaroo). Exploration and development plans include a 27% step‑up in drilling to ~55 km across the Iberian Pyrite and Kalahari belts and the ~130 km Kalkaroo infill/extension program (currently weather‑impacted); Motheo will see a temporary peak in deferred waste stripping in FY‑27 that falls sharply in FY‑28. Balance‑sheet/capital management metrics disclosed include a net cash position of $353 million at 30 June 2026, a prudent net‑cash buffer target in the order of ~$300 million, and a fully franked final dividend of AUD 0.35/share; FY‑26 operating context cited Motheo mill throughput of 6.1 Mt and copper‑equivalent production of 59,700 t, with FY‑26 implied C1 costs of $1.00/lb (Motheo) and $0.88/lb (MATSA).Sandfire Resources Limited Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
86
Very Positive
Cash Flow
82
Very Positive
| Breakdown | Jun 2026 | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.68B | 1.19B | 921.57M | 782.37M | 1.42B |
| Gross Profit | 569.02M | 1.20B | 917.78M | -40.98M | 435.96M |
| EBITDA | 875.18M | 531.94M | 373.44M | 240.14M | 468.03M |
| Net Income | 363.62M | 93.25M | -17.35M | -76.68M | 153.66M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 3.22B | 2.87B | 3.00B | 4.75B | 4.93B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 352.48M | 110.67M | 183.34M | 141.94M | 463.09M |
| Total Debt | 36.42M | 253.24M | 582.58M | 596.59M | 813.90M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.01B | 1.09B | 1.33B | 2.14B | 2.51B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.22B | 1.79B | 1.67B | 2.61B | 2.42B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 537.32M | 337.16M | 122.95M | -372.25M | 252.22M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 746.71M | 523.71M | 344.89M | 113.86M | 536.68M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -240.07M | -185.65M | -215.95M | -297.47M | -1.63B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -263.82M | -411.19M | -86.42M | -124.39M | 1.29B |
Sandfire Resources Limited Technical Analysis
Negative
22.78
Price Trends
21.65
Negative
20.45
Negative
19.20
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.67
Positive
39.95
Neutral
30.64
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:SFR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 22.78 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 21.04, above the 50-day MA of 21.65, and above the 200-day MA of 19.20, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.67 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 39.95 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 30.64 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:SFR.
Sandfire Resources Limited Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (55)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | AU$9.18B | 19.14 | 17.19% | 1.78% | 31.56% | 256.29% | |
55 Neutral | $6.65B | 3.83 | -15.92% | 6.20% | 10.91% | 7.18% | |
44 Neutral | AU$263.77M | -23.10 | -4.15% | ― | ― | 22.68% | |
43 Neutral | AU$117.34M | -5.70 | 634.53% | ― | ― | -163.77% | |
43 Neutral | AU$41.91M | -20.91 | -1.15% | ― | -100.00% | 99.56% | |
41 Neutral | AU$205.22M | -12.07 | -9.20% | ― | ― | 81.09% |
* General Sector Average
AU:SFR
Sandfire Resources Limited
19.62
3.94
25.15%
AU:HCH
Hot Chili Limited
1.30
0.38
41.30%
AU:CYM
Cyprium Metals Limited
0.36
>-0.01
-1.11%
AU:CVV
Caravel Minerals Limited
0.21
0.04
23.53%
AU:TNC
True North Copper
0.22
-0.02
-8.33%
Sandfire Resources Limited Corporate Events
Sandfire posts strong Q1, boosts exploration as cash and low costs support growth
Oct 26, 2026
Sandfire Resources reported a solid start to FY27, delivering 38.9kt of group copper equivalent production in the September quarter, in line with the run-rate needed to achieve the midpoint of annual guidance, and maintaining processing rates of 4...
Sandfire Extends High-Grade La Juliana Discovery at MATSA
Oct 26, 2026
Sandfire has reported strong follow-up drilling results at the La Juliana prospect, about 700 metres from current underground workings at the Castillejitos orebody within its MATSA complex in Spain. New holes have intersected thick zones of high-g...
Sandfire sets date and briefing for September 2026 quarterly update
Oct 8, 2026
Sandfire Resources Limited has scheduled the release of its September 2026 Quarterly Report for 27 October 2026, signaling an upcoming update on its recent operational and financial performance. The report will be made available via the ASX announ...
Sandfire sets hybrid 2026 AGM and shifts to online meeting materials
Sep 30, 2026
Sandfire Resources Limited has scheduled its 2026 Annual General Meeting as a hybrid event at the Parmelia Hilton in Perth on 30 October, enabling shareholders and proxyholders to participate either in person or via live webcast through an online ...
Sandfire Showcases High-Performing Motheo Copper Hub to Financial Community
Sep 21, 2026
Sandfire Resources is hosting members of the financial community at its Motheo copper mining complex in Botswana, underscoring the strategic importance of the operation within the Kalahari Copper Belt. The site visit highlights Motheo’s inte...
Sandfire Resources Reports Lapse of Performance Rights
Sep 2, 2026
Sandfire Resources has confirmed the lapse of 21,897 performance rights, which ceased on 27 August 2026 after the relevant vesting conditions were not satisfied or became incapable of being met. The notification, lodged with the ASX as an Appendix...
Sandfire Resources Withdraws Cessation of Securities Notice Pending Correction
Sep 2, 2026
Sandfire Resources Limited has withdrawn a previously lodged Appendix 3H notification relating to the cessation of securities in its issued capital. The company stated that the earlier announcement, dated 2 September 2026, was cancelled because a ...
Sandfire Resources Adds 947,775 New Shares to ASX Quotation
Sep 2, 2026
Sandfire Resources Limited has applied to the ASX for quotation of 947,775 new ordinary fully paid shares, following the exercise of options or conversion of other securities. The shares were issued on 27 August 2026, modestly increasing the compa...
Sandfire Resources Seeks ASX Quotation for New Employee Incentive Shares
Sep 2, 2026
Sandfire Resources Limited, an ASX-listed mining company trading under the code SFR, has expanded its pool of ordinary fully paid shares. The company utilises employee incentive schemes as part of its approach to capital management and staff reten...
Sandfire Resources Reports Lapse of Conditional Rights and Cessation of Shares
Sep 2, 2026
Sandfire Resources Limited has notified the market of a minor adjustment to its issued capital, confirming that 21,897 ordinary fully paid shares have ceased due to the lapse of conditional rights. These rights became incapable of being satisfied,...
Sandfire director adjusts shareholding after long-term incentives vest
Sep 2, 2026
Sandfire Resources has disclosed changes to the securities held by director Brendan Harris, reflecting the vesting of performance rights under the company’s Employee Long-Term Incentive plan. Harris received 246,688 fully paid ordinary share...
Sandfire Resources lodges updated ASX corporate governance statement for 2026
Aug 25, 2026
Sandfire Resources Limited has lodged its corporate governance statement for the year ended 30 June 2026 with the ASX, making it available via its website in line with listing rules. The statement, approved by the board, outlines the extent to whi...
Sandfire details FY26 financial results framework and reporting metrics
Aug 25, 2026
Sandfire Resources has released its FY26 financial results presentation, outlining operating and financial information for the year in conjunction with its 2026 Annual Report. The company uses both IFRS and non-IFRS measures, such as Underlying Ea...
Sandfire Resources Declares AUD 0.35 Full-Year Dividend for FY2026
Aug 25, 2026
Sandfire Resources Limited has declared a full-year dividend of AUD 0.35 per ordinary fully paid share for the twelve-month period ended 30 June 2026. The distribution applies to ASX-listed SFR securities and reflects the company’s latest ca...
Sandfire Resources Delivers Strong FY26 Profit Surge and Declares Higher Dividend
Aug 25, 2026
Sandfire Resources reported a strong improvement in its financial performance for the year ended 30 June 2026, with revenue from ordinary activities rising 41% to US$1,653.7 million and net profit attributable to members surging 282% to US$355.8 m...
Sandfire flags reserve growth potential after near-mine exploration success
Aug 25, 2026
Sandfire has reported strong near-mine exploration results across its MATSA and Motheo hubs, confirming high-grade copper and polymetallic mineralisation at several prospects. The work highlights the potential to grow reserves in the Iberian Pyrit...
Sandfire boosts MATSA resource base as reserves adjust to depletion
Aug 25, 2026
Sandfire has reported updated Mineral Resources for MATSA of 190 Mt at 1.2% Cu, 2.7% Zn, 1.0% Pb and 37 g/t Ag, a 12% increase in tonnage versus the prior year. The update reflects higher resource confidence, with significant growth in Measured an...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.