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Northern Star Resources Ltd
(Sydney:NST)
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Rating:76Outperform
Price Target:
AU$27.00
▲(10.02% Upside)
Action:Upgraded
Date:08/21/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (growth, low leverage, and healthy operating cash generation). Technicals are supportive with positive momentum and price above key moving averages, though near-term indicators are somewhat stretched. Valuation is reasonable but not cheap (P/E ~20) with a moderate dividend yield, while the latest earnings call highlights meaningful FY'27 execution and capital-intensity risks that temper the outlook.
Positive Factors
Strong earnings and cash generation
Strong earnings and operating cash flow demonstrate the profitability of Northern Star’s producing assets. This supports reinvestment, shareholder distributions and resilience through operating variability, although substantial mine investment continues to limit free-cash-flow conversion.
Negative Factors
High FY27 capital intensity
The unusually large investment program will place sustained demands on cash flow and management execution. High sustaining and growth spending can reduce cash available for dividends, buybacks or debt reduction if operating outcomes weaken.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong earnings and cash generation
Strong earnings and operating cash flow demonstrate the profitability of Northern Star’s producing assets. This supports reinvestment, shareholder distributions and resilience through operating variability, although substantial mine investment continues to limit free-cash-flow conversion.
Read all positive factors
Northern Star Resources Ltd (NST) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$33.38B
Dividend Yield2.3%
Average Volume (3M)5.82M
Price to Earnings (P/E)19.3
Beta (1Y)1.74
Revenue Growth18.83%
EPS Growth3.43%
CountryAU
Employees10,062
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryGold
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.17
Shares Outstanding1,424,805,000
10 Day Avg. Volume7,127,010
30 Day Avg. Volume5,818,927
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio4.58
Price to Book (P/B)1.73
Price to Sales (P/S)3.55
P/FCF Ratio39.24
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$23.04Price Target Upside-6.11% Downside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering11
EPS Forecast (FY)1.24
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$8.83B
Northern Star Resources Ltd Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Northern Star Resources Limited is deeply engaged in all facets of gold production, from exploring and discovering new deposits to developing mines, extracting the ore, and processing it. The company also handles the sale of its refined gold outpu...
How the Company Makes Money
NST primarily makes money by producing and selling gold. Revenue is generated from the sale of refined gold (typically produced as doré from its processing plants and then sold into the gold market), with sales value driven by the quantity of gold...
Northern Star Resources Ltd Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 19, 2026
(Q4-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 16, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call communicated a largely positive financial and strategic position: robust earnings, strong margins, a healthy balance sheet, continued shareholder returns and significant long‑life resources. However, FY'27 is a high capital and execution‑risk year driven by KCGM commissioning, elevated sustaining/growth capital, inflationary cost pressures, and operational transitions at assets such as Jundee. Management framed the year as a move from investment to value realization but emphasized measured ramp‑up assumptions and downside scenarios. Overall the positives (strong profitability, balance sheet, resource base and clear guidance) outweigh the near‑term operational and capital risks.Positive Updates
Strong underlying earnings and cash generation
Reported underlying EBITDA of $4.3 billion (up 22% year‑on‑year) and cash earnings of $2.9 billion. The business also reported $190 million of underlying free cash flow in FY'26 despite being in a peak investment phase.
Negative Updates
Operational challenges and transition year
Management acknowledged operational challenges during FY'26 and that the year represented a significant investment and transition phase, with production and costs impacted by construction and commissioning activities.
Read all updates
Q4-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong underlying earnings and cash generation
Reported underlying EBITDA of $4.3 billion (up 22% year‑on‑year) and cash earnings of $2.9 billion. The business also reported $190 million of underlying free cash flow in FY'26 despite being in a peak investment phase.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Northern Star guided FY‑27 group production of 1.50–1.65Moz (weighted to H2), with KCGM 550–650koz (underground ore 3.5–4.0Mtpa; targeted material movement 60–65Mt) as the key driver alongside a 27Mtpa processing expansion; FY‑27 AISC AUD3,050–3,450/oz, sustaining capital ~AUD850–915M (including Bannockburn ~$85–95M), total group capital AUD2.6–2.9B, growth capital AUD1.5–1.77B, Hemi project spend AUD200–250M, exploration AUD230–250M, depreciation AUD1,000–1,200/oz, effective tax 30–32% and cash tax AUD450–550M (including ~AUD300–350M Hemi cash tax benefits). KCGM‑specific FY‑27 spend includes operational growth capital AUD895–945M, mill expansion and readiness AUD350–470M (Stage 2 AUD150–210M), tailings AUD100–120M and power AUD100–140M; the company enters FY‑27 with ~AUD1.2B cash/bullion, investment‑grade ratings, and a FY‑26 dividend of AUD0.55/share (final AUD0.30) plus $129M of a $500M buyback completed.Northern Star Resources Ltd Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
82
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
86
Very Positive
Cash Flow
78
Positive
| Breakdown | Jun 2026 | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 7.62B | 6.41B | 4.92B | 4.13B | 3.81B |
| Gross Profit | 2.82B | 3.63B | 1.16B | 577.90M | 529.90M |
| EBITDA | 4.27B | 3.43B | 2.17B | 1.97B | 1.78B |
| Net Income | 1.66B | 1.34B | 638.50M | 585.20M | 429.80M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 21.97B | 20.43B | 13.08B | 12.71B | 11.48B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.02B | 1.69B | 1.12B | 1.13B | 571.10M |
| Total Debt | 1.72B | 1.71B | 1.34B | 1.32B | 511.50M |
| Total Liabilities | 6.29B | 5.52B | 4.29B | 4.22B | 3.24B |
| Stockholders Equity | 15.68B | 14.92B | 8.79B | 8.48B | 8.25B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 689.90M | 657.00M | 565.90M | 292.30M | 570.50M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 3.18B | 2.95B | 2.07B | 1.35B | 1.63B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -2.56B | -1.53B | -1.50B | -1.04B | -913.20M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.19B | -965.60M | -577.60M | 245.70M | -927.40M |
Northern Star Resources Ltd Technical Analysis
Positive
24.54
Price Trends
21.42
Positive
21.19
Positive
23.48
Positive
Market Momentum
0.83
Positive
57.05
Neutral
60.14
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:NST, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 24.54 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 23.31, above the 50-day MA of 21.42, and above the 200-day MA of 23.48, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.83 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 57.05 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 60.14 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:NST.
Northern Star Resources Ltd Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
82 Outperform | AU$8.60B | 14.72 | 18.86% | 2.08% | 12.65% | 11.08% | |
80 Outperform | AU$30.42B | 19.55 | 25.74% | 2.89% | 27.74% | 56.65% | |
78 Outperform | AU$6.30B | 8.47 | 35.03% | 3.29% | 42.59% | 180.54% | |
77 Outperform | AU$7.24B | 59.82 | 3.01% | 2.72% | -14.16% | -84.78% | |
76 Outperform | AU$33.38B | 19.26 | 10.76% | 2.74% | 18.83% | 3.43% | |
73 Outperform | AU$6.01B | 12.85 | 19.72% | 0.65% | 79.44% | 1173.17% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
AU:NST
Northern Star Resources Ltd
23.69
3.99
20.27%
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Perseus Mining
6.61
2.58
64.18%
AU:EVN
Evolution Mining
14.92
5.98
66.95%
AU:RRL
Regis Resources Limited
8.42
3.71
78.92%
AU:RMS
Ramelius Resources Limited
3.90
0.56
16.84%
AU:WGX
Westgold Resources
6.46
2.81
76.99%
Northern Star Resources Ltd Corporate Events
Northern Star lifts profit and confirms FY26 dividend and DRP dates
Aug 20, 2026
Northern Star Resources has reported a strong preliminary result for the year ended 30 June 2026, with revenue up 19% to $7,623.1 million and net profit attributable to members rising 24% to $1,664.3 million, while cash earnings increased modestly...
Northern Star details corporate governance compliance for FY26
Aug 19, 2026
Northern Star Resources has lodged its corporate governance statement for the year ended 30 June 2026 with the ASX, making it available via its website in line with listing requirements. The statement has been approved by the board and is current ...
Northern Star Releases FY26 Corporate Governance Statement Emphasising Responsible Mining
Aug 19, 2026
Northern Star Resources has released its FY26 Corporate Governance Statement as part of a broader FY26 Annual Reporting Suite, which also includes environmental, social and responsibility reporting and a modern slavery statement. The document unde...
Northern Star Reaffirms 2026 Gold Resources and Reserves
Aug 19, 2026
Northern Star Resources has reaffirmed its mineral resource and ore reserve estimates as at 31 March 2026, stating that no material new information has emerged beyond normal mining depletion to 19 August 2026. The company reports total attributabl...
Northern Star posts record profit as KCGM expansion ushers in next growth phase
Aug 19, 2026
Northern Star Resources reported record full-year financial results, with statutory net profit after tax rising 24% to A$1.7 billion and underlying net profit up 26% to A$1.8 billion, driven by a 19% jump in revenue to A$7.6 billion on higher real...
Northern Star lifts profit and streamlines portfolio as FY26 dividends rise
Aug 19, 2026
Northern Star Resources reported a robust performance for the year to 30 June 2026, with revenue up 19% to $7.62 billion and net profit attributable to members rising 24% to $1.66 billion. Cash earnings edged 1% higher to $2.91 billion, and net ta...
Northern Star Resources Issues New Shares on Option Conversion
Aug 14, 2026
Northern Star Resources has issued 231,652 new ordinary fully paid shares following the conversion or exercise of previously unquoted options or other convertible securities. The new shares, dated August 13, 2026, modestly increase the companyR...
Northern Star Tightens Capital Base as Performance Rights Lapse
Aug 14, 2026
Northern Star Resources has reported the cessation of 160,327 performance rights, which lapsed after the underlying conditions were not met or became incapable of being satisfied. The rights were tied to conditional entitlements to securities and ...
Northern Star Pushes Back on Elliott’s Board Demands While Advancing Own Renewal Plan
Aug 13, 2026
Northern Star has detailed its engagement with activist investor Elliott Investment Management, which holds a 5.35% economic interest in the company via cash‑settled swaps but has no disclosed voting stake. The board says it has already been...
Northern Star appoints Terry Bowen to board and audit chair role
Aug 13, 2026
Northern Star Resources has appointed seasoned executive Terry Bowen as an independent Non-Executive Director, effective 1 September 2026, as part of a planned board transition. Bowen, who has held senior roles at Wesfarmers and Jetstar and served...
Northern Star to Unveil FY26 Results and Host Investor Call
Aug 11, 2026
Northern Star Resources will release its financial results for the year ended 30 June 2026 before market open on the ASX on 20 August 2026. The timing underscores the company’s commitment to promptly updating investors on its performance in ...
Northern Star updates market on lapse of CEO performance rights
Aug 7, 2026
Northern Star Resources has reported a change in the equity interests of managing director Stuart Peter Tonkin, updating the market on his direct and indirect holdings in shares and performance rights. The disclosure follows ASX requirements and o...
Northern Star Reports Lapse of 2.6 Million Performance Rights
Aug 7, 2026
Northern Star Resources has notified the market that 2,629,903 performance rights, trading under the ASX code NSTAA, have ceased following a lapse of conditional rights. The securities lapsed because the conditions attached to these performance ri...
Northern Star Issues New Unquoted Performance Rights Under Incentive Plan
Aug 7, 2026
Northern Star Resources has notified the market of the issue of 47,152 unquoted performance rights under its employee incentive scheme. The new securities, classified as NSTAA performance rights, were issued on August 3, 2026 and are not intended ...
Northern Star Reaffirms JORC-Compliant Gold Reserves and Resources
Aug 3, 2026
Northern Star Resources has reaffirmed its current Ore Reserves and Mineral Resources estimates for the Northern Star Group and KCGM Operations, stating that there has been no material change since its June 3, 2026 update aside from normal mining ...
Northern Star lifts cashflow as KCGM mill expansion hits key commissioning milestone
Jul 28, 2026
Northern Star Resources reported June quarter gold sales of 433,482 ounces at an all-in sustaining cost of A$2,651 per ounce, contributing to FY26 sales of 1,543,000 ounces with costs within guidance and positive net mine cashflow of A$1,179 milli...
Elliott Reveals Large Equity Derivative Position in Northern Star Resources
Jul 26, 2026
Northern Star Resources Ltd has disclosed that Elliott Associates, L.P. and Elliott International, L.P. hold a significant long equity derivative position over its fully paid ordinary shares. The derivatives are structured as cash-settled equity s...
Northern Star Updates On-Market Share Buy-Back Details
Jul 10, 2026
Northern Star Resources Ltd has updated its previously announced on-market share buy-back, clarifying the total number of ordinary fully paid NST securities currently on issue. The update, lodged as an Appendix 3C notification with the ASX on 10 J...
Northern Star Names New Director With No Current Shareholdings
Jul 8, 2026
Northern Star Resources Ltd has appointed Jeffrey Allan Quartermaine as a director effective 9 July 2026, and lodged an Initial Director’s Interest Notice with the ASX. The filing confirms that Quartermaine currently holds no relevant intere...
Northern Star Adds Veteran Gold Executive Jeff Quartermaine to Board
Jul 8, 2026
Northern Star Resources has appointed veteran mining executive Jeff Quartermaine as an independent non-executive director, effective 9 July 2026. Quartermaine, the former managing director and CEO of Perseus Mining, brings more than 35 years of ex...
Northern Star sets date for June quarter results and investor call
Jul 6, 2026
Northern Star Resources Ltd, a global gold miner focused on shareholder returns through operational excellence and exploration-led growth, continues to position itself as a leading player in the gold sector. The company’s strategy emphasises...
Northern Star issues new shares from conversion of unquoted securities
Jul 3, 2026
Northern Star Resources Ltd has issued 5,971 new fully paid ordinary shares following the exercise or conversion of previously unquoted securities. The small equity issuance modestly increases the company’s share capital and reflects the rea...
Northern Star appoints Michael Ashforth as new chairman in planned board transition
Jul 1, 2026
Northern Star Resources has announced a planned leadership transition, with Independent Non-Executive Director and current Deputy Chairman Michael Ashforth set to succeed Michael Chaney as Chairman following the company’s Annual General Meet...
Northern Star names Glencore executive Suresh Vadnagra as new CEO
Jul 1, 2026
Northern Star Resources has appointed experienced global mining executive Suresh Vadnagra as its new Managing Director and CEO, effective 5 October 2026, following a comprehensive internal and external search. Vadnagra, currently leading Glencore&...
Northern Star Meets FY26 Gold Guidance and Advances KCGM Expansion
Jul 1, 2026
Northern Star Resources reported preliminary June quarter gold sales of 433koz, taking FY26 gold sold to 1,543koz and meeting its revised guidance of above 1,500koz across the Kalgoorlie, Yandal and Pogo production centres. The company ended June ...
Northern Star continues daily on-market share buy-back program
Jun 23, 2026
Northern Star Resources Ltd has continued its on-market share buy-back program, repurchasing a total of 6,169,044 ordinary fully paid shares prior to the latest reporting date. The company bought back an additional 149,444 shares on the previous d...
Northern Star Updates Market on Progress of On‑Market Share Buy‑Back
Jun 21, 2026
Northern Star Resources has provided an updated notification to the ASX regarding its ongoing on-market share buy-back program for its ordinary fully paid shares. The company reported that it had repurchased a cumulative total of 5,698,592 shares ...
Northern Star Responds to Activist Investor as Major Gold Projects Advance
Jun 10, 2026
Northern Star Resources is reinforcing its strategy around large, long-life Australian gold assets, highlighting recent achievements such as the remediation of the KCGM wall slip to unlock Golden Pike reserves, the near-complete multi-billion-doll...
Northern Star Continues Daily On-Market Share Buy-Back Program
Jun 9, 2026
Northern Star Resources Ltd has provided an update on its ongoing on-market share buy-back program for its ordinary fully paid shares, identified on the ASX as NST. The company reported that a total of 4,417,990 shares had been repurchased prior t...
Northern Star Issues Daily Update on Ongoing Share Buy-Back
Jun 4, 2026
Northern Star Resources has provided an updated notification to the ASX regarding its ongoing on-market share buy-back of ordinary fully paid shares under code NST. The company reported that a total of 3,863,638 shares had been bought back prior t...
Northern Star Updates Details of On-Market Share Buy-Back
Jun 3, 2026
Northern Star Resources has updated details of its on-market share buy-back for its ordinary fully paid shares, confirming a change to the total number of securities on issue in the class subject to repurchase. The latest notice, dated 3 June 2026...
Northern Star Cancels 2.55 Million Shares After On-Market Buy-Back
Jun 3, 2026
Northern Star Resources has cancelled 2,547,457 ordinary fully paid shares following completion of an on-market buy-back, as disclosed in its latest capital announcement. The reduction in issued capital may enhance earnings per share and signals c...
Northern Star boosts gold resources and reserves, cementing long-term growth platform
Jun 2, 2026
Northern Star Resources has reported a sharp increase in its mineral inventory, with group Mineral Resources rising 26% to 88.9 million ounces and Ore Reserves up 27% to 28.4 million ounces as at 31 March 2026, even after mining depletion. The com...
Northern Star responds to Elliott as MD search and KCGM expansion advance
Jun 2, 2026
Northern Star Resources has acknowledged correspondence and public commentary from shareholder Elliott Investment Management, noting it shares Elliott’s view that the company’s asset portfolio is capable of delivering superior sharehol...
Northern Star updates market on ongoing share buy-back activity
May 28, 2026
Northern Star Resources Ltd has provided an update on its on-market share buy-back program, confirming that a total of 3,396,803 ordinary fully paid shares had been repurchased before the previous trading day. The company reported that an addition...
Northern Star Updates Market on Progress of On-Market Share Buy-Back
May 27, 2026
Northern Star Resources Ltd has provided an update on its ongoing on-market share buy-back, covering ordinary fully paid shares under the ASX code NST. The company is executing the buy-back as part of a previously announced capital management init...
Northern Star Extends On-Market Share Buy-Back Programme
May 26, 2026
Northern Star Resources Ltd has continued its on-market share buy-back program, purchasing a total of 243,691 ordinary fully paid shares on the most recent trading day. This takes the cumulative number of shares bought back to 2,939,336 since the ...
Northern Star Updates Market on Progress of On‑Market Share Buy‑Back
May 25, 2026
Northern Star Resources Ltd has provided an updated notification to the ASX on its ongoing on-market share buy-back program for its ordinary fully paid shares. The filing records cumulative buy-backs of 2,662,528 shares prior to the latest reporti...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.