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Evolution Mining
(Sydney:EVN)
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Rating:80Outperform
Price Target:
AU$13.50
▼(-14.99% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/20/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (material margin/profit expansion, improved balance sheet, and solid cash generation) and a positive earnings outlook with enhanced shareholder returns. Technicals support the view with an uptrend across key moving averages, while valuation is acceptable but not especially cheap and guidance highlights cost inflation as the main near-term risk.
Positive Factors
Revenue and margin expansion
Substantial revenue growth alongside wider gross and net margins indicates stronger earnings power and improved operating performance. If these gains persist, Evolution can fund mine investment, support shareholder returns, and strengthen its position across the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Higher operating costs
Higher all-in sustaining costs can reduce margins and cash conversion even when production remains on plan. Labour, maintenance, and sustaining-capital inflation may therefore constrain the earnings benefit of strong gold operations and require continued cost discipline.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue and margin expansion
Substantial revenue growth alongside wider gross and net margins indicates stronger earnings power and improved operating performance. If these gains persist, Evolution can fund mine investment, support shareholder returns, and strengthen its position across the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Evolution Mining (EVN) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$24.81B
Dividend Yield3.38%
Average Volume (3M)11.58M
Price to Earnings (P/E)16.6
Beta (1Y)1.47
Revenue Growth27.74%
EPS Growth56.65%
CountryAU
Employees2,000
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryGold
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.73
Shares Outstanding2,045,015,400
10 Day Avg. Volume9,362,912
30 Day Avg. Volume11,582,230
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.27
Price to Book (P/B)4.08
Price to Sales (P/S)4.28
P/FCF Ratio16.61
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$13.44Price Target Upside-15.36% Downside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering11
EPS Forecast (FY)0.88
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$5.77B
Evolution Mining Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Based in Sydney, Australia, Evolution Mining Limited is a company primarily focused on the discovery, development, operation, and commercialization of gold and gold-copper concentrates throughout Australia and Canada. The firm also actively seeks ...
How the Company Makes Money
Evolution Mining primarily makes money by producing and selling gold (and, where applicable, silver by-products) from its operated mines. Revenue is generated when mined ore is processed (e.g., via milling and recovery circuits) to produce gold-be...
Evolution Mining Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 18, 2026
(Q4-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 10, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a strongly positive financial and operational story: record earnings, margins, cash flow, deleveraging to net cash, a materially increased dividend and a clear pipeline of self‑funding growth projects on schedule and budget. Negative elements were present — notably inflationary cost pressures raising AISC guidance, a weather-related disruption at Ernest Henry with insurance timing uncertainty, closure provisions at Mt Rawdon, and localized production resets (Red Lake) — but these appear manageable against the company’s robust cash generation, balance sheet strength and disciplined capital allocation.Positive Updates
Record financial performance
Underlying EBITDA of $3.2 billion (up 44% YoY), underlying EBITDA margin 57% (up 12 percentage points), underlying NPAT $1.6 billion (up 63% YoY), group cash flow nearly $1.4 billion (up 76% YoY), and EPS $0.73 (up 57% YoY).
Negative Updates
Higher AISC guidance and cost escalation
Group AISC guided at $1,795–$1,995/oz (versus FY'26 AISC $1,717/oz), reflecting assumed cost escalation of 4%–5% which adds ~$150–$160/oz; midpoint AISC implies an increase vs FY'26 (~$178/oz midpoint increase).
Read all updates
Q4-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record financial performance
Underlying EBITDA of $3.2 billion (up 44% YoY), underlying EBITDA margin 57% (up 12 percentage points), underlying NPAT $1.6 billion (up 63% YoY), group cash flow nearly $1.4 billion (up 76% YoY), and EPS $0.73 (up 57% YoY).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The FY‑27 guidance targets group gold production of 660,000–730,000 oz and copper of 63,000–70,000 t (Sept‑quarter guide 160,000–166,000 oz and 16,000–17,000 t), with production weighted to 2H (semi‑annual major shutdowns at Cowal and Ernest Henry in Sept and Mar; Mt Rawdon finishes this quarter). Group AISC is guided at A$1,795–1,995/oz (assumes copper at US$5.72/lb and cost escalation of ~4–5% equivalent to ~$150–160/oz, plus an extra A$50–60m p.a. sustaining capital on fleet/infrastructure). At current prices operating mine cash flow is estimated at ~US$/AUD $3.6bn (consensus case ~ $3.4bn; group cash flow ~$3.4–3.6bn range), supporting the increased dividend payout target of 60% of annual group cash flow; planned study spend this year is A$70–90m and approved growth projects (E22, CPF, Northparkes expansion study, Cowal OPC, Bert) remain on schedule and budget.Evolution Mining Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
86
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
80
Positive
Cash Flow
78
Positive
| Breakdown | Jun 2026 | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 5.56B | 4.35B | 3.22B | 2.23B | 2.06B |
| Gross Profit | 2.49B | 1.56B | 923.26M | 416.20M | 486.60M |
| EBITDA | 3.14B | 2.19B | 1.43B | 847.36M | 934.85M |
| Net Income | 1.48B | 926.17M | 422.27M | 163.51M | 323.32M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 10.55B | 9.64B | 8.82B | 6.75B | 6.63B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.35B | 759.63M | 403.30M | 46.15M | 572.43M |
| Total Debt | 1.42B | 1.79B | 2.02B | 1.82B | 1.86B |
| Total Liabilities | 4.72B | 4.68B | 4.68B | 3.46B | 3.38B |
| Stockholders Equity | 5.83B | 4.96B | 4.14B | 3.29B | 3.25B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.43B | 790.20M | 363.16M | -103.39M | 107.58M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.64B | 1.97B | 1.28B | 735.28M | 776.68M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.19B | -1.19B | -1.51B | -1.03B | -1.83B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -847.70M | -435.81M | 586.65M | -226.28M | 1.47B |
Evolution Mining Technical Analysis
Negative
15.88
Price Trends
13.71
Negative
12.77
Negative
13.10
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.39
Positive
31.54
Neutral
10.10
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:EVN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 15.88 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 12.85, above the 50-day MA of 13.71, and above the 200-day MA of 13.10, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.39 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 31.54 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 10.10 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:EVN.
Evolution Mining Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
82 Outperform | AU$7.85B | 12.85 | 18.90% | 2.36% | 12.65% | 11.08% | |
80 Outperform | AU$24.81B | 16.61 | 25.74% | 3.38% | 27.74% | 56.65% | |
78 Outperform | AU$5.20B | 6.95 | 35.03% | 2.87% | 42.59% | 180.54% | |
77 Outperform | AU$6.72B | 57.27 | 3.01% | 1.68% | -14.16% | -84.78% | |
76 Outperform | AU$35.70B | 21.60 | 10.76% | 2.19% | 18.83% | 3.43% | |
73 Outperform | AU$4.67B | 11.16 | 19.72% | 1.97% | 79.44% | 1173.17% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
AU:EVN
Evolution Mining
11.84
1.49
14.41%
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24.14%
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Northern Star Resources Ltd
24.79
1.18
5.02%
AU:RRL
Regis Resources Limited
6.38
0.39
6.58%
AU:RMS
Ramelius Resources Limited
3.53
0.06
1.85%
AU:WGX
Westgold Resources
5.16
>-0.01
-0.12%
Evolution Mining Corporate Events
Evolution Mining to Showcase Record FY26 at November AGM
Oct 21, 2026
Evolution Mining has called shareholders to its 2026 Annual General Meeting, to be held as a physical event at The Mint in Sydney on 26 November, where it will present what it describes as a record financial year to 30 June 2026 and highlight the ...
Evolution Mining lodges updated ASX corporate governance statement for FY26
Oct 21, 2026
Evolution Mining has lodged its corporate governance statement for the year ended 30 June 2026 with the ASX, opting to host the full statement on its website in line with listing rules. The document confirms the company’s adherence to the AS...
Evolution Mining Strengthens Governance With Comprehensive FY26 Reporting Suite
Oct 21, 2026
Evolution Mining has released its FY26 Annual Report, presenting a consolidated view of operations, financial performance and sustainability outcomes as at 30 June 2026 in Australian dollars. The document integrates the company’s Sustainabil...
Evolution Mining posts strong cash flows and advances growth projects despite slower start to FY27
Oct 13, 2026
Evolution Mining reported September quarter production of 154 thousand ounces of gold and 18 thousand tonnes of copper, while maintaining one of the lowest all-in sustaining costs in the sector at A$1,653 per ounce and improving its safety perform...
Evolution Mining Seeks ASX Quotation for New Dividend Plan Shares
Oct 2, 2026
Evolution Mining Limited has applied for quotation of 466,963 new ordinary fully paid shares on the ASX, expanding its listed equity base under code EVN. The issuance is dated October 2, 2026 and is conducted under a dividend or distribution plan,...
Evolution Mining Reports Lapse of 403,797 Performance Rights
Oct 1, 2026
Evolution Mining has reported the cessation of 403,797 performance rights, which lapsed after the underlying conditions were not met or became incapable of being satisfied. The rights, classified under ASX code EVNAS, ceased effective 30 September...
Evolution Mining Sets Date for September Quarter Results Call
Sep 30, 2026
Evolution Mining will release its quarterly report for the period ended 30 September 2026 to the ASX before market open on 14 October, followed by a results conference call hosted by its managing director and chief operating officer. The company i...
Evolution Mining outlines 2026 performance metrics under strict disclosure caveats
Sep 28, 2026
Evolution Mining has released a presentation dated 29 September 2026 outlining information current to that date and referring investors to its financial results for the year ended 30 June 2026. The document emphasises that figures may include non-...
Carnaby Sends Scheme Booklet as Evolution Mining Takeover Advances
Sep 25, 2026
Evolution Mining is an Australia-based gold producer pursuing growth through strategic acquisitions, while Carnaby Resources focuses on copper and gold exploration and development across key Australian mining jurisdictions. The combination would a...
Carnaby Shareholders to Vote on Evolution Mining Takeover as Scheme Booklet Registered
Sep 21, 2026
Evolution Mining has moved forward with its planned acquisition of all Carnaby Resources shares it does not already own via a court-approved scheme of arrangement, reflecting its strategy to expand its asset base in the Australian mining sector. T...
Evolution Mining Sets Timetable for 2026 AGM and Board Nominations
Sep 20, 2026
Evolution Mining has scheduled its 2026 Annual General Meeting for 26 November at 11:00am AEDT, with full meeting details to be released to the market and posted on its website on 22 October. The company has also set 5:00pm AEST on 25 September as...
Carnaby Sets October Vote on Evolution Mining Takeover Scheme
Sep 18, 2026
Carnaby Resources has secured initial court orders in Western Australia to convene a shareholder meeting on 26 October 2026 to vote on a proposed scheme of arrangement under which Evolution Mining will acquire all Carnaby shares it does not alread...
Evolution Sets DRP Price and Final Dividend for 2026 Payout
Sep 18, 2026
Evolution Mining has set the issue price for shares under its Dividend Reinvestment Plan at $13.3119 per share for the final fully franked dividend relating to the year ended 30 June 2026. Participation in the plan reached 1.45% of ordinary shares...
Evolution Mining outlines projects, growth strategy and use of non-IFRS metrics
Sep 15, 2026
Evolution Mining has released a presentation dated 15 September 2026 outlining its current projects and future growth opportunities as it seeks to build a premier global gold company. The update is positioned to be read in conjunction with the gro...
Evolution Mining Showcases Long-Life Portfolio and Growth Options at Investor Briefing
Sep 14, 2026
Evolution Mining outlined its position as a high-margin, long-life gold and copper producer, emphasising a substantial resource base and growing copper exposure that underpin its future growth ambitions. The company highlighted production guidance...
Evolution Mining to Outline Growth Strategy at September Investor Briefing
Sep 13, 2026
Evolution Mining will host an investor briefing in Sydney on 15 September 2026, with a live webcast running from 12:30pm to 4:00pm AEST for pre-registered participants. The event underscores the company’s engagement with investors, providing...
Evolution Mining Seeks ASX Quotation for New Employee Incentive Shares
Sep 2, 2026
Evolution Mining Limited has applied to the ASX for quotation of 141,624 ordinary fully paid shares, issued on 1 September 2026 under an employee incentive scheme. The new securities, which are not subject to transfer restrictions, modestly increa...
Evolution Mining Issues New Shares Under Disclosure Exemption
Aug 27, 2026
Evolution Mining has issued 2,583,333 new fully paid ordinary shares as part of a share sale and purchase agreement completed on 27 August 2026, expanding its issued capital base. The company confirmed the issuance was conducted without a prospect...
Evolution Mining Seeks ASX Quotation for New Share Issue
Aug 27, 2026
Evolution Mining Limited has applied to the ASX for quotation of 2,583,333 new ordinary fully paid shares, issued on August 27, 2026. The securities were created as part of a board-approved transaction that had not previously been disclosed via an...
Evolution Mining Lifts Stake in Carnaby Resources Ahead of Full Takeover
Aug 27, 2026
Evolution Mining has increased its strategic exposure to copper and gold by acquiring the QIC Queensland Critical Minerals Fund’s 13.7% stake in Carnaby Resources through a share-swap transaction. The deal, executed at the same share exchang...
Evolution Mining Updates Lawrie Conway’s Equity Interests After FY24 Performance Vesting
Aug 21, 2026
Evolution Mining has reported a change in managing director Lawrie Conway’s interests in the company’s securities, reflecting the vesting and lapse of certain performance-related equity awards. Following these movements, Conway’s...
Evolution Mining Updates Market on Director Jacob Klein’s Equity Holdings
Aug 21, 2026
Evolution Mining has disclosed a change in the interests of director Jacob Klein, reflecting the vesting and lapse of certain performance-based equity awards. Klein’s holding of fully paid ordinary shares increased following the vesting of p...
Evolution Mining Reports Lapse of Performance Rights
Aug 19, 2026
Evolution Mining Limited has reported the lapse of 346,208 performance rights, which have ceased because the conditions attached to those rights were not met or are no longer capable of being satisfied as of 18 August 2026. The cessation of these ...
Evolution Mining Seeks ASX Quotation for New Employee Incentive Shares
Aug 19, 2026
Evolution Mining Limited has applied to the ASX for quotation of 10,732,898 ordinary fully paid shares under an employee incentive scheme, with the securities issued on August 19, 2026. The new shares are to be quoted despite any transfer restrict...
Evolution Mining Declares AUD 0.21 Interim Dividend for June 2026 Period
Aug 18, 2026
Evolution Mining Limited has declared a fully franked interim dividend of AUD 0.21 per ordinary share for the six‑month period ended 30 June 2026, reinforcing its capital return strategy to investors. The dividend timetable sets an ex‑...
Evolution Mining refreshes board as long‑serving director retires
Aug 18, 2026
Evolution Mining has announced a series of board changes, with long‑serving Non‑Executive Director Tommy McKeith set to retire following the company’s November 2026 annual general meeting. McKeith, who joined the board in 2014 an...
Evolution Mining lifts payout on record profits and cash flow
Aug 18, 2026
Evolution Mining has reported record financial results for the year to 30 June 2026, driven by higher margins, stronger cash flow and a net cash balance following substantial reinvestment in its operations. The company’s Cowal and Mungari as...
Evolution Mining details climate risks and emissions in first AASB S2 report
Aug 18, 2026
Evolution Mining has released its 2026 Climate Report, providing a complete set of climate-related financial disclosures for the year ended 30 June 2026 in line with Australia’s Corporations Act and the new AASB S2 Climate-related Disclosure...
Evolution Mining sets 19 August briefing on FY26 financial results
Aug 5, 2026
Evolution Mining has confirmed it will release its financial report for the year ended 30 June 2026 to the ASX before market open on 19 August, followed by a results conference call led by its chief executive and chief financial officer. The compa...
Evolution Mining outlines Mungari Operations and reporting framework
Aug 2, 2026
Evolution Mining has released materials for a site visit to its Mungari Operations, outlining management oversight and operational context for the Western Australian gold asset. The presentation forms part of the company’s broader strategy t...
Evolution Mining Emphasises Transparency and Risk in Diggers & Dealers Update
Aug 2, 2026
Evolution Mining has released a presentation for the Diggers Dealers forum outlining its strategy as a premier global gold company and reaffirming its focus on transparent disclosure. The document stresses that all production and financial figure...
Evolution Mining Plans New Share Placement on ASX
Jul 27, 2026
Evolution Mining Limited, an Australian gold miner listed on the ASX as EVN, operates a portfolio of gold assets supplying bullion and related products to global and local markets. The company relies on public equity issuance and capital markets t...
Evolution Mining to buy Carnaby Resources, boosting Ernest Henry copper growth
Jul 26, 2026
Evolution Mining has agreed to acquire Carnaby Resources via a Scheme of Arrangement, valuing the ASX-listed explorer at about $213 million and granting Carnaby shareholders 0.0682 Evolution shares for each Carnaby share. The deal delivers the adv...
Evolution Mining moves to acquire Carnaby Resources in A$213m scheme
Jul 26, 2026
Evolution Mining has agreed to acquire 100% of Carnaby Resources via a court-approved scheme of arrangement, offering 0.0682 Evolution shares for each Carnaby share, implying a value of A$0.77 per Carnaby share and an equity valuation of about A$2...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.