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Evolution Mining
(Sydney:EVN)
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Rating:80Outperform
Price Target:
AU$15.50
â–Ľ(-2.39% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/20/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (material margin/profit expansion, improved balance sheet, and solid cash generation) and a positive earnings outlook with enhanced shareholder returns. Technicals support the view with an uptrend across key moving averages, while valuation is acceptable but not especially cheap and guidance highlights cost inflation as the main near-term risk.
Positive Factors
Strong revenue and profit expansion
Material growth in revenue, margins and earnings shows stronger operating performance across the portfolio. Although gold prices influence results, the improved scale and profitability provide a stronger base for funding mine investment and shareholder returns.
Negative Factors
Higher all-in sustaining costs
Higher AISC, driven by 4%–5% cost escalation and additional sustaining capital, could compress margins if metal prices weaken. Persistent labour, maintenance and infrastructure inflation may also limit the durability of recent profitability gains.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong revenue and profit expansion
Material growth in revenue, margins and earnings shows stronger operating performance across the portfolio. Although gold prices influence results, the improved scale and profitability provide a stronger base for funding mine investment and shareholder returns.
Read all positive factors
Evolution Mining (EVN) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$32.42B
Dividend Yield2.05%
Average Volume (3M)7.03M
Price to Earnings (P/E)21.2
Beta (1Y)1.48
Revenue Growth27.74%
EPS Growth56.65%
CountryAU
Employees2,000
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryGold
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.73
Shares Outstanding2,041,823,500
10 Day Avg. Volume8,964,585
30 Day Avg. Volume7,029,608
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.27
Price to Book (P/B)4.08
Price to Sales (P/S)4.28
P/FCF Ratio16.61
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$13.20Price Target Upside-16.88% Downside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering13
EPS Forecast (FY)0.89
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$5.76B
Evolution Mining Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Based in Sydney, Australia, Evolution Mining Limited is a company primarily focused on the discovery, development, operation, and commercialization of gold and gold-copper concentrates throughout Australia and Canada. The firm also actively seeks ...
How the Company Makes Money
Evolution Mining primarily makes money by producing and selling gold (and, where applicable, silver by-products) from its operated mines. Revenue is generated when mined ore is processed (e.g., via milling and recovery circuits) to produce gold-be...
Evolution Mining Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 18, 2026
(Q4-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 17, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a strongly positive financial and operational story: record earnings, margins, cash flow, deleveraging to net cash, a materially increased dividend and a clear pipeline of self‑funding growth projects on schedule and budget. Negative elements were present — notably inflationary cost pressures raising AISC guidance, a weather-related disruption at Ernest Henry with insurance timing uncertainty, closure provisions at Mt Rawdon, and localized production resets (Red Lake) — but these appear manageable against the company’s robust cash generation, balance sheet strength and disciplined capital allocation.Positive Updates
Record financial performance
Underlying EBITDA of $3.2 billion (up 44% YoY), underlying EBITDA margin 57% (up 12 percentage points), underlying NPAT $1.6 billion (up 63% YoY), group cash flow nearly $1.4 billion (up 76% YoY), and EPS $0.73 (up 57% YoY).
Negative Updates
Higher AISC guidance and cost escalation
Group AISC guided at $1,795–$1,995/oz (versus FY'26 AISC $1,717/oz), reflecting assumed cost escalation of 4%–5% which adds ~$150–$160/oz; midpoint AISC implies an increase vs FY'26 (~$178/oz midpoint increase).
Read all updates
Q4-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record financial performance
Underlying EBITDA of $3.2 billion (up 44% YoY), underlying EBITDA margin 57% (up 12 percentage points), underlying NPAT $1.6 billion (up 63% YoY), group cash flow nearly $1.4 billion (up 76% YoY), and EPS $0.73 (up 57% YoY).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The FY‑27 guidance targets group gold production of 660,000–730,000 oz and copper of 63,000–70,000 t (Sept‑quarter guide 160,000–166,000 oz and 16,000–17,000 t), with production weighted to 2H (semi‑annual major shutdowns at Cowal and Ernest Henry in Sept and Mar; Mt Rawdon finishes this quarter). Group AISC is guided at A$1,795–1,995/oz (assumes copper at US$5.72/lb and cost escalation of ~4–5% equivalent to ~$150–160/oz, plus an extra A$50–60m p.a. sustaining capital on fleet/infrastructure). At current prices operating mine cash flow is estimated at ~US$/AUD $3.6bn (consensus case ~ $3.4bn; group cash flow ~$3.4–3.6bn range), supporting the increased dividend payout target of 60% of annual group cash flow; planned study spend this year is A$70–90m and approved growth projects (E22, CPF, Northparkes expansion study, Cowal OPC, Bert) remain on schedule and budget.Evolution Mining Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
86
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
80
Positive
Cash Flow
78
Positive
| Breakdown | Jun 2026 | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 5.56B | 4.35B | 3.22B | 2.23B | 2.06B |
| Gross Profit | 2.49B | 1.56B | 923.26M | 416.20M | 486.60M |
| EBITDA | 3.14B | 2.15B | 1.43B | 847.36M | 934.85M |
| Net Income | 1.48B | 926.17M | 422.27M | 163.51M | 323.32M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 10.55B | 9.64B | 8.82B | 6.75B | 6.63B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.35B | 759.63M | 403.30M | 46.15M | 572.43M |
| Total Debt | 1.42B | 1.79B | 2.02B | 1.82B | 1.86B |
| Total Liabilities | 4.72B | 4.68B | 4.68B | 3.46B | 3.38B |
| Stockholders Equity | 5.83B | 4.96B | 4.14B | 3.29B | 3.25B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.43B | 790.20M | 363.16M | -103.39M | 107.58M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.64B | 1.97B | 1.28B | 735.28M | 776.68M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.19B | -1.19B | -1.51B | -1.03B | -1.83B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -847.70M | -435.81M | 586.65M | -226.28M | 1.47B |
Evolution Mining Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
82 Outperform | AU$8.14B | 15.36 | 12.39% | 2.08% | 12.65% | 11.08% | |
80 Outperform | AU$32.42B | 21.21 | 25.74% | 2.89% | 27.74% | 56.65% | |
78 Outperform | AU$6.45B | 8.99 | 27.80% | 3.29% | 42.59% | 180.54% | |
77 Outperform | AU$7.50B | 62.94 | 3.01% | 2.72% | -14.16% | -84.78% | |
76 Outperform | AU$34.94B | 20.53 | 10.76% | 2.74% | 18.83% | 3.43% | |
70 Outperform | AU$6.19B | 24.63 | 12.35% | 0.65% | 101.97% | 237.66% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
AU:EVN
Evolution Mining
15.68
7.40
89.28%
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84.06%
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Ramelius Resources Limited
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AU:WGX
Westgold Resources
6.56
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93.97%
Evolution Mining Corporate Events
Evolution Mining Reports Lapse of Performance Rights
Aug 19, 2026
Evolution Mining Limited has reported the lapse of 346,208 performance rights, which have ceased because the conditions attached to those rights were not met or are no longer capable of being satisfied as of 18 August 2026. The cessation of these ...
Evolution Mining Seeks ASX Quotation for New Employee Incentive Shares
Aug 19, 2026
Evolution Mining Limited has applied to the ASX for quotation of 10,732,898 ordinary fully paid shares under an employee incentive scheme, with the securities issued on August 19, 2026. The new shares are to be quoted despite any transfer restrict...
Evolution Mining Declares AUD 0.21 Interim Dividend for June 2026 Period
Aug 18, 2026
Evolution Mining Limited has declared a fully franked interim dividend of AUD 0.21 per ordinary share for the six‑month period ended 30 June 2026, reinforcing its capital return strategy to investors. The dividend timetable sets an ex‑...
Evolution Mining refreshes board as long‑serving director retires
Aug 18, 2026
Evolution Mining has announced a series of board changes, with long‑serving Non‑Executive Director Tommy McKeith set to retire following the company’s November 2026 annual general meeting. McKeith, who joined the board in 2014 an...
Evolution Mining lifts payout on record profits and cash flow
Aug 18, 2026
Evolution Mining has reported record financial results for the year to 30 June 2026, driven by higher margins, stronger cash flow and a net cash balance following substantial reinvestment in its operations. The company’s Cowal and Mungari as...
Evolution Mining details climate risks and emissions in first AASB S2 report
Aug 18, 2026
Evolution Mining has released its 2026 Climate Report, providing a complete set of climate-related financial disclosures for the year ended 30 June 2026 in line with Australia’s Corporations Act and the new AASB S2 Climate-related Disclosure...
Evolution Mining sets 19 August briefing on FY26 financial results
Aug 5, 2026
Evolution Mining has confirmed it will release its financial report for the year ended 30 June 2026 to the ASX before market open on 19 August, followed by a results conference call led by its chief executive and chief financial officer. The compa...
Evolution Mining outlines Mungari Operations and reporting framework
Aug 2, 2026
Evolution Mining has released materials for a site visit to its Mungari Operations, outlining management oversight and operational context for the Western Australian gold asset. The presentation forms part of the company’s broader strategy t...
Evolution Mining Emphasises Transparency and Risk in Diggers & Dealers Update
Aug 2, 2026
Evolution Mining has released a presentation for the Diggers Dealers forum outlining its strategy as a premier global gold company and reaffirming its focus on transparent disclosure. The document stresses that all production and financial figure...
Evolution Mining Plans New Share Placement on ASX
Jul 27, 2026
Evolution Mining Limited, an Australian gold miner listed on the ASX as EVN, operates a portfolio of gold assets supplying bullion and related products to global and local markets. The company relies on public equity issuance and capital markets t...
Evolution Mining to buy Carnaby Resources, boosting Ernest Henry copper growth
Jul 26, 2026
Evolution Mining has agreed to acquire Carnaby Resources via a Scheme of Arrangement, valuing the ASX-listed explorer at about $213 million and granting Carnaby shareholders 0.0682 Evolution shares for each Carnaby share. The deal delivers the adv...
Evolution Mining moves to acquire Carnaby Resources in A$213m scheme
Jul 26, 2026
Evolution Mining has agreed to acquire 100% of Carnaby Resources via a court-approved scheme of arrangement, offering 0.0682 Evolution shares for each Carnaby share, implying a value of A$0.77 per Carnaby share and an equity valuation of about A$2...
Evolution Mining Reports Lapse of 231,999 Performance Rights
Jul 1, 2026
Evolution Mining has notified the market that 231,999 performance rights, trading under the ASX code EVNAS, have lapsed. The cessation results from the specified conditions attached to these conditional rights not being met, or becoming incapable ...
Evolution Mining sets July 15 call to unveil June quarter results
Jun 29, 2026
Evolution Mining will release its quarterly report for the period ended 30 June 2026 to the ASX before market open on 15 July, underscoring ongoing transparency around production and costs. Managing director and chief executive officer Lawrie Conw...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.