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Kogan.com
(Sydney:KGN)
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Rating:63Neutral
Price Target:
AU$3.50
▼(-5.66% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/25/26
The score is driven primarily by improving financial performance (profitability recovery and strong free cash flow) and a constructive earnings update with reaffirmed margin ambitions and positive early FY27 trading. Offsetting this are weak technicals (price below major moving averages) and a relatively high P/E (~33), which increases reliance on execution—especially the Mighty Ape turnaround and ongoing margin progress.
Positive Factors
Core revenue and earnings growth
Strong double-digit growth in the core Kogan.com business indicates improving customer activity and operating leverage. Rising gross profit and adjusted earnings provide greater capacity to fund platform investment, strengthen the core franchise, and support earnings growth over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Thin and historically volatile profitability
Despite the latest recovery, a thin net margin leaves limited protection if sales, gross margin, or operating costs move unfavourably. The history of losses and uneven growth also reduces confidence that current profitability is fully durable across different trading conditions.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Core revenue and earnings growth
Strong double-digit growth in the core Kogan.com business indicates improving customer activity and operating leverage. Rising gross profit and adjusted earnings provide greater capacity to fund platform investment, strengthen the core franchise, and support earnings growth over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Kogan.com (KGN) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$358.26M
Dividend Yield4.27%
Average Volume (3M)187.01K
Price to Earnings (P/E)33.4
Beta (1Y)1.49
Revenue Growth4.64%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryAU
Employees350
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustrySpecialty Retail
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.11
Shares Outstanding95,536,530
10 Day Avg. Volume249,622
30 Day Avg. Volume187,011
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.31
Price to Book (P/B)12.63
Price to Sales (P/S)0.85
P/FCF Ratio10.40
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$5.22Price Target Upside40.61% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)0.22
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$554.23M
Kogan.com Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Kogan.com Ltd is a prominent Australian e-commerce company, established in Melbourne in 2006. The business primarily functions as an online retailer, offering a diverse selection of goods across categories like electronics, appliances, homewares, ...
How the Company Makes Money
Kogan.com makes money primarily through multiple digital retail and services revenue streams: (1) Product sales (retail/e-commerce): The company sells products directly to consumers via its websites and apps. Revenue is recognized from the sale of...
Kogan.com Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 23, 2026
(Q4-2026)
| Next Earnings Date:Feb 24, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a broadly positive picture driven by strong performance at Kogan.com (double‑digit revenue and earnings growth, expanding margins and healthy cash generation), meaningful progress on the Mighty Ape reset (inventory reduction, cost cuts, margin recovery and Q4 profitability), and active moves to scale platform and AI capabilities. Key risks remain: Mighty Ape’s FY'26 revenue decline and full‑year loss (though Q4 turned positive), a group adjusted earnings margin below the stated medium‑term target, elevated marketing investment, and an announced but undated senior leadership departure. On balance, the positives — notably Kogan.com strength, cash generation, platform mix and constructive operational improvements at Mighty Ape — outweigh the negatives, though execution on the Mighty Ape turnaround and maintaining margin momentum will be important for delivering the medium‑term targets.Positive Updates
Group Gross Sales Exceed $1 Billion
Group gross sales topped $1.0 billion, representing growth of 12% year-on-year, demonstrating scale expansion across the group.
Negative Updates
Mighty Ape Revenue Decline and FY'26 Loss
Mighty Ape revenue declined 30% to $85.6 million and recorded a $3.3 million adjusted earnings loss for the full year. Although Q4 returned to positive adjusted earnings, the recovery remains at an early stage and the business is operating from a materially lower sales base.
Read all updates
Q4-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Group Gross Sales Exceed $1 Billion
Group gross sales topped $1.0 billion, representing growth of 12% year-on-year, demonstrating scale expansion across the group.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company reaffirmed its medium‑term guidance to progressively grow adjusted earnings margins toward ~12% and signalled it expects Mighty Ape to deliver a full‑year adjusted EBITDA profit in FY27 after Q4 positivity; July trading provided an encouraging start with Kogan.com gross sales up ~13% and revenue up ~18% (David: gross sales +12.8%, revenue +17.9%), group gross sales +9% and group revenue +6%. FY26 metrics underpinning the guidance include Kogan.com revenue $425.2m (+16%), gross profit $184.8m (+18%) and adjusted earnings $45.1m (+22%); group revenue $510.7m (+5%), gross profit $210.9m (+11%) and adjusted earnings $41.8m (+14%) at an 8.2% margin; platform‑based sales now generate 61% of group gross profit (up from 59%) and 73% of gross profit comes from exclusive products/services. The Board emphasised disciplined profitable growth, continued investment in Kogan.com and platform expansion, a strong balance sheet (cash $36.4m, no external debt, free cash flow $38.3m +18.2%), capital returns last year of $34.9m ($14.7m dividends, $20.2m buyback) and a declared final fully franked dividend of $0.080 with a DRP at a 2.5% discount.Kogan.com Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
Cash Flow
78
Positive
| Breakdown | Jun 2026 | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 510.61M | 488.11M | 459.70M | 488.38M | 717.60M |
| Gross Profit | 210.81M | 189.91M | 168.44M | 135.44M | 183.52M |
| EBITDA | 39.93M | 31.68M | 38.09M | -19.12M | -21.43M |
| Net Income | 11.17M | -39.47M | 83.00K | -25.85M | -35.46M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 193.47M | 190.15M | 243.43M | 274.06M | 360.31M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 36.43M | 42.27M | 41.34M | 65.44M | 66.23M |
| Total Debt | 17.36M | 16.66M | 23.04M | 15.73M | 57.53M |
| Total Liabilities | 159.04M | 129.62M | 119.83M | 106.34M | 187.67M |
| Stockholders Equity | 34.43M | 60.53M | 123.60M | 167.72M | 172.64M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 41.82M | 36.96M | 23.17M | 66.70M | 56.28M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 41.95M | 37.29M | 28.19M | 70.86M | 61.84M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -3.60M | -4.90M | -15.96M | -18.05M | -32.78M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -41.60M | -31.57M | -36.39M | -53.79M | -54.24M |
Kogan.com Technical Analysis
Positive
3.71
Price Trends
3.42
Positive
3.83
Negative
3.72
Positive
Market Momentum
0.06
Negative
74.33
Negative
93.51
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:KGN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 3.71 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.36, above the 50-day MA of 3.42, and below the 200-day MA of 3.72, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.06 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 74.33 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 93.51 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:KGN.
Kogan.com Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Neutral | AU$3.03B | 14.95 | 16.02% | 4.84% | 3.19% | -7.17% | |
68 Neutral | AU$7.91B | 16.15 | 29.54% | 4.66% | 4.82% | 5.95% | |
63 Neutral | AU$358.26M | 33.42 | 23.74% | 4.27% | 4.64% | ― | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
61 Neutral | AU$420.84M | 15.11 | 14.04% | 4.09% | 3.42% | -8.75% | |
55 Neutral | AU$241.58M | -6.23 | -19.53% | 8.55% | 3.83% | -251.57% | |
51 Neutral | AU$593.22M | 148.18 | 3.54% | ― | 10.63% | -62.61% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
AU:KGN
Kogan.com
3.75
0.63
20.31%
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Kogan.com Corporate Events
Kogan.com Sets November Date for In-Person Annual General Meeting
Oct 22, 2026
Kogan.com Ltd has announced it will hold its Annual General Meeting of shareholders as a physical event at Arnold Bloch Leibler’s Melbourne offices on 23 November 2026 at 10:00am AEDT. The company’s decision to convene an in-person AGM...
Kogan.com Investors Back Executive Incentive Packages at Extraordinary Meeting
Oct 22, 2026
Kogan.com has outlined the results of its Extraordinary General Meeting held in Melbourne on 22 October 2026, where shareholders voted on key remuneration-related resolutions for directors. The company confirmed that all resolutions put to members...
Kogan.com Details Corporate Governance Compliance for FY2026
Sep 29, 2026
Kogan.com Limited has confirmed that its corporate governance statement for the year ended 30 June 2026 is available on its corporate website and current as of 29 September 2026, as approved by the board. The statement outlines how the company app...
Kogan.com Tops $1 Billion in Sales as Cash Generation Fuels Shareholder Returns
Sep 29, 2026
Kogan.com reported robust growth in its 2026 financial year, with gross sales exceeding $1.042 billion, a 12% year-on-year increase, and gross profit rising 11% to $210.9 million. Adjusted EBITDA climbed 14% to $41.8 million, underscoring improved...
Kogan.com Updates Half-Year Dividend Details and DRP Pricing
Sep 28, 2026
Kogan.com has updated its dividend notification for holders of its ordinary fully paid shares listed on the ASX under code KGN. The update relates to a distribution covering the six-month period ended 30 June 2026, tied to an ex-dividend date of 1...
Kogan.com Announces Lapse of 50,939 Performance Rights
Sep 24, 2026
Kogan.com has notified the ASX of the cessation of 50,939 performance rights, following the lapse of conditional rights that could not be satisfied. The move slightly reduces the company’s pool of potential equity-linked securities and may s...
Kogan.com calls EGM to overhaul executive pay and tie rewards to shareholder returns
Sep 18, 2026
Online retailer Kogan.com, which operates a portfolio of e-commerce and services brands across Australia and New Zealand, derives revenue from exclusive and third-party products, subscription offerings, and digital platforms, with a strategic emph...
Kogan.com updates market on director David Shafer’s revised equity holdings
Sep 10, 2026
Kogan.com has disclosed a change in director David Shafer’s interests, reflecting movements in his holdings of ordinary shares and performance rights. The update, filed with the ASX, shows the conversion of certain performance rights into or...
Kogan.com Updates Director Ruslan Kogan’s Equity Holdings After LTI Vesting
Sep 10, 2026
Kogan.com Ltd has reported a change in founder and director Ruslan Kogan’s interests, following the partial vesting of a long‑term incentive (LTI) tranche tied to total shareholder return performance. The update reflects the conversion...
Kogan.com Director Ronn Bechler Increases Indirect Shareholding
Sep 9, 2026
Kogan.com director Ronn Bechler has increased his indirect shareholding in the company through an on-market trade. Bechler, who holds a beneficial interest via Ketom Pty Ltd , acquired 29,500 ordinary shares at $3.3768 each on 8 September 2026.Fol...
Kogan.com Issues New Shares Under Equity Incentive Plan and Confirms Compliance
Sep 8, 2026
Kogan.com Ltd has issued 741,883 fully paid ordinary shares following the vesting of performance rights under its Equity Incentive Plan, and has applied for their quotation on the ASX. The company states that the shares were issued without a prosp...
Kogan.com Adds 741,883 New Shares to ASX Listing
Sep 8, 2026
Kogan.com Ltd has applied for quotation on the ASX of 741,883 ordinary fully paid shares under the code KGN, with an issue date of 8 September 2026. The new securities result from the exercise or conversion of existing options or other convertible...
Kogan.com Reports Lapse of Performance Rights, Tweaks Equity Structure
Sep 8, 2026
Kogan.com has reported the lapse of 109,446 performance rights, which have ceased because the conditions attached to them were not met or became incapable of being satisfied. The cessation reduces the company’s pool of outstanding equity-lin...
Kogan.com Ties Executive Pay to Robust Shareholder Return Hurdles
Sep 7, 2026
Kogan.com has outlined proposed remuneration changes for founder and CEO Ruslan Kogan and CFO/COO David Shafer, in a move the board says is designed to tighten the alignment between executive rewards and shareholder returns. The announcement comes...
Kogan.com Options Expire, Trimming Convertible Securities Pool
Sep 4, 2026
Kogan.com has disclosed the cessation of 178,773 listed options, identified by ASX code KGNAI and carrying an exercise price of $3.68, following their expiry on 2 September 2026 without being exercised or converted. The expiry reduces the company&...
Kogan.com Releases FY26 Results Presentation with Cautions on Forward-Looking Data
Aug 24, 2026
Kogan.com has released its unaudited FY26 results presentation, providing a general summary of its activities and financial performance compared with FY25. The company stresses that the information is current as of 24 August 2026, may change witho...
Kogan Group tops $1bn in sales as margins and cash returns climb
Aug 24, 2026
Kogan Group reported strong FY26 results, surpassing $1 billion in gross sales as Kogan.com drove double-digit revenue and profit growth, margin expansion and operating leverage. The core business benefited from AI-driven process automation, which...
Kogan.com Announces AUD 0.08 Interim Dividend and DRP Timetable
Aug 24, 2026
Kogan.com has declared a fully franked interim dividend of AUD 0.08 per ordinary share for the six-month period ended 30 June 2026, reflecting the company’s ongoing practice of returning capital to shareholders. The dividend will be paid on ...
Kogan.com Returns to Profit as Platform Strategy and Mighty Ape Reset Boost Earnings
Aug 24, 2026
Kogan.com reported a return to profitable growth in the year to 30 June 2026, with group revenue rising 4.6% to $510.7 million and a swing from a $39.5 million loss to an $11.2 million statutory profit after tax. The turnaround was driven by impro...
Kogan.com Sets Date for FY26 Results Release and Investor Webinar
Aug 17, 2026
Kogan.com has scheduled the release of its FY26 Appendix 4E and Financial Report to the ASX for Monday, 24 August 2026, reinforcing its ongoing disclosure obligations as a listed Australian e-commerce and services group. The company continues to l...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.