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Hillgrove Resources Limited
(Sydney:HGO)
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Rating:62Neutral
Price Target:
AU$1.50
▲(41.51% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/20/26
The score is driven primarily by improving financial trajectory and a strong, low-leverage balance sheet, supported by constructive technical trends. This is tempered by still-thin net profitability and negative free cash flow, while valuation is a notable headwind given the high P/E. Earnings call guidance and operational/resource progress are broadly positive but carry execution and near-term cost/production timing risks.
Positive Factors
Operational turnaround
The return to positive EBIT and higher revenue indicates that Kanmantoo is converting improved operating performance into a stronger earnings base. If production gains are sustained, this turnaround can support reinvestment, improve resilience, and provide a foundation for better profitability over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Thin net profitability
The improvement has not yet translated into meaningful bottom-line profitability, leaving limited earnings protection if costs rise or operating performance softens. Thin net margins also reduce internal capital-generation capacity and show that the recent turnaround remains vulnerable to depreciation, finance, and other below-EBIT charges.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Operational turnaround
The return to positive EBIT and higher revenue indicates that Kanmantoo is converting improved operating performance into a stronger earnings base. If production gains are sustained, this turnaround can support reinvestment, improve resilience, and provide a foundation for better profitability over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Hillgrove Resources Limited (HGO) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$278.43M
Dividend Yield20.2%
Average Volume (3M)550.88K
Price to Earnings (P/E)12.9
Beta (1Y)1.44
Revenue Growth31.20%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryAU
Employees10
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryCopper
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.09
Shares Outstanding235,955,000
10 Day Avg. Volume605,057
30 Day Avg. Volume550,877
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-13.28
Price to Book (P/B)1.27
Price to Sales (P/S)0.73
P/FCF Ratio-6.40
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$1.53Price Target Upside43.87% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)0.15
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$256.13M
Hillgrove Resources Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Kantra Copper Ltd engages in the operation, exploration, and development of mineral properties in Australia. It primarily explores for copper, gold, and silver deposits. The company's project is the Kanmantoo Copper mine located approximately 55 k...
How the Company Makes Money
Hillgrove Resources primarily makes money by producing and selling copper-bearing product from its mining operations. Revenue is generated from the sale of copper (typically as a concentrate or other saleable copper product depending on processing...
Hillgrove Resources Limited Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 24, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Mar 02, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a broadly positive operational and growth story: production met FY2025 guidance, quarterly production hit a record, reserves and resources materially increased (ore reserve +43%, resource tonnes +14%), Nugent achieved key milestones and is driving a 2026 production uplift (guidance 12,750–14,000 t). Strong drilling progress and capital discipline were highlighted, along with completed equity funding. Near‑term challenges include one‑off costs, unplanned maintenance, inventory drawdown, modest gold recovery and geological variability (pinch/swell), and some conservative near‑term cost guidance. Overall, the positives around production, resource growth, project delivery and funding outweigh the short‑term operational and cost headwinds.Positive Updates
Full‑Year Copper Production Within Guidance
FY2025 copper production of 11,315 tonnes, within guidance range of 11,000–11,500 tonnes.
Negative Updates
One‑Off Costs and Unplanned Maintenance
December quarter experienced one‑off costs including stock write‑offs and unplanned plant maintenance, which increased absolute all‑in sustaining costs quarter‑on‑quarter and reduced inventory credit.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Full‑Year Copper Production Within Guidance
FY2025 copper production of 11,315 tonnes, within guidance range of 11,000–11,500 tonnes.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Guidance for 2026: copper production 12,750–14,000 tonnes (supported by a targeted mining rate of 1.7–1.8 Mtpa and a 1.8 Mtpa H2 run‑rate), all‑in sustaining costs AUD 5.75–6.25 per pound of payable copper sold (note 2025 AISC USD 4.29/lb within USD 4.20–4.45 guidance and Q4 AISC USD 4.03/lb = AUD 6.30), major capital AUD 8–10 million (vs $21m major and $20.5m sustaining capex invested in 2025), Nugent now in production driving higher H2 gold (2025 gold 2,249 oz, Q4 753 oz, ~55% recovery planned and gold grade expected to nearly double in H2), FY2025 copper 11,315 t (within 11,000–11,500 guidance) and Q4 copper 2,962 t (3,121 t payable sold at an average realized AUD 14,754/t), company liquidity $30.8m (cash $20.6m), operating cash flow $12.7m Q4 and $35.8m FY, 3,560 t of hedges outstanding at a weighted AUD 14,459/t for Jan–Sep 2026, and a 2025 reserve/resource of 4 Mt ore reserve (34,000 t Cu, 29,000 oz Au) and 22 Mt mineral resource (160,000 t Cu, 120,000 oz Au).Hillgrove Resources Limited Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
56
Neutral
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
42
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 201.38M | 167.62M | 112.39M | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Gross Profit | 35.55M | 29.82M | 1.46M | -5.98M | -165.00K | -2.00K |
| EBITDA | 48.00M | 27.11M | 21.24M | -12.68M | -4.46M | -5.43M |
| Net Income | 18.11M | 92.00K | -24.03M | -16.33M | -5.97M | -5.86M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 176.00M | 150.24M | 107.39M | 101.06M | 52.90M | 51.29M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 32.53M | 20.95M | 3.26M | 10.24M | 5.30M | 10.74M |
| Total Debt | 4.10M | 4.59M | 8.69M | 19.30M | 7.20M | 0.00 |
| Total Liabilities | 52.83M | 54.22M | 65.81M | 46.18M | 20.33M | 13.35M |
| Stockholders Equity | 123.17M | 96.03M | 41.57M | 54.88M | 32.57M | 37.94M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 2.31M | -19.10M | -11.22M | -31.29M | -13.58M | -14.29M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 40.89M | 20.73M | 21.00M | -8.78M | -5.71M | -4.89M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -40.74M | -40.31M | -32.02M | -22.46M | -5.57M | -9.39M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 21.77M | 37.27M | 4.04M | 36.17M | 5.89M | 19.42M |
Hillgrove Resources Limited Technical Analysis
Positive
1.06
Price Trends
0.94
Positive
0.81
Positive
0.73
Positive
Market Momentum
0.06
Negative
69.10
Neutral
75.23
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:HGO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 1.06 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.02, above the 50-day MA of 0.94, and above the 200-day MA of 0.73, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.06 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 69.10 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 75.23 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:HGO.
Hillgrove Resources Limited Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | AU$10.57B | 21.42 | 17.19% | 0.00% | 31.56% | 256.29% | |
62 Neutral | AU$278.43M | 12.91 | 16.52% | 20.20% | 31.20% | ― | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
52 Neutral | AU$306.38M | -8.92 | -14.19% | ― | ― | 78.60% | |
46 Neutral | AU$67.85M | -6.57 | -9.21% | ― | -100.00% | 98.64% | |
44 Neutral | AU$333.77M | -31.21 | -3.91% | ― | ― | 17.44% | |
39 Underperform | AU$167.63M | -13.10 | -242.58% | ― | ― | -79.69% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
AU:HGO
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Hillgrove Resources Limited Corporate Events
Kantra Copper Adjusts Director Holdings After 15:1 Share Consolidation
Aug 27, 2026
Kantra Copper Limited has reported a change in the indirect holdings of director Derek Carter, following a consolidation of the company’s capital on a 15:1 basis. His interests, held via the Salamanca Superannuation Fund and The Carter Famil...
Kantra Copper completes rebrand and prepares ASX code change
Aug 17, 2026
Kantra Copper Limited has formally changed its name from Hillgrove Resources Limited, with the new identity now recorded by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission and an upcoming change of its ASX ticker to KAN once a planned capital...
Hillgrove Investors Back Mutooroo Deal, Name Change and Capital Consolidation
Aug 17, 2026
Hillgrove Resources shareholders have approved all resolutions put to a general meeting held on 17 August 2026, with each motion carried by poll. The ratification of the issue of Mutooroo Stage 1 consideration shares and options, along with a chan...
Hillgrove Issues Nearly 4 Million Unquoted Performance Rights Under Incentive Scheme
Aug 6, 2026
Hillgrove Resources Limited has notified the market of the issue of 3,960,457 unquoted performance rights under its employee incentive scheme, to be recorded with an issue date of 7 August 2026. These performance rights, which are not intended to ...
Hillgrove Taps CBA as Tier-1 Banking Partner to Support Copper Mine Growth
Jul 29, 2026
Hillgrove Resources Limited has appointed Commonwealth Bank of Australia as its tier-1 banking partner following a competitive selection process. The move consolidates existing security arrangements with Freepoint Metals Concentrates and the Sout...
Hillgrove Cash Flow Surges as Kanmantoo Copper Output Ramps Up
Jul 21, 2026
Hillgrove Resources reported a strong June quarter, with Kanmantoo achieving a sustained annualised production run rate of 1.8 million tonnes in June and 1.65 million tonnes for the quarter. This operational momentum supported delivery of 3,170 to...
Hillgrove Resources to Present at Noosa Mining Conference
Jul 21, 2026
Hillgrove Resources has released the investor presentation that its CEO and Managing Director, Bob Fulker, will deliver at the Noosa Mining Conference on 24 July 2026. The presentation, available through the conference’s online platform, und...
Hillgrove Resources Seeks ASX Quotation for New Employee-Incentive Shares
Jul 14, 2026
Hillgrove Resources Limited has applied for quotation on the ASX of 3,906,200 ordinary fully paid shares, issued on July 15, 2026 under its employee incentive scheme. The move modestly increases the company’s free-floating equity and reflect...
Hillgrove Director’s Vesting Boosts Ordinary Shareholding
Jul 2, 2026
Hillgrove Resources Limited has reported a change in the securities held by director Robert Fulker, reflecting the vesting of previously issued performance rights. Following the transaction on 2 July 2026, Fulker’s direct holdings increased ...
Hillgrove Resources Seeks Quotation for 5 Million New ASX Shares
Jul 2, 2026
Hillgrove Resources Limited has applied for quotation of 5,000,000 new ordinary fully paid shares on the ASX, with an issue date of 2 July 2026. The securities are being listed under the existing HGO code, expanding the company’s quoted shar...
Hillgrove Hits 1.8Mtpa at Kanmantoo and Fast-Tracks Emily Star Decision
Jul 2, 2026
Hillgrove Resources has reached an annualised run rate of 1.8 million tonnes per annum at its flagship Kanmantoo Copper Mine in June, in line with its ramp-up plan. Mining and milling performance both achieved this level, underscoring the effectiv...
Hillgrove drills deepest copper-gold intersection yet at Kanmantoo
Jun 29, 2026
Hillgrove Resources reported new surface drilling results from the Kanmantoo Copper Mine’s Kavanagh mineralised zone, confirming significant copper-gold intersections at depths more than 100 metres below previously known mineralisation. The ...
Hillgrove Confirms High-Grade Emily Star Results as It Advances Stage 2 Decision at Kanmantoo
Jun 16, 2026
Hillgrove Resources has reported further high-grade copper-gold intersections from underground drilling at the Emily Star prospect within the Kanmantoo Copper Mine, with recent holes confirming consistent mineralisation. These results strengthen t...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.