Want to see AU:GNC full AI Analyst Report?
Top Page
Graincorp Limited Class A
(Sydney:GNC)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
AU$7.00
▲(12.36% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/17/26
The score is driven primarily by solid financial performance (especially strong cash flow and revenue growth) and a constructive but risk-aware earnings outlook with reaffirmed FY26 guidance and transformation savings. These positives are tempered by weak/uncertain profitability signals (low net margin and negative P/E) and mixed technicals, with the share price still below key longer-term moving averages.
Positive Factors
Cash Generation
Strong free cash flow growth and efficient cash conversion provide internal funding for capital expenditure, dividends, and transformation investment. This improves financial resilience and gives GrainCorp flexibility to manage seasonal working capital while sustaining its core supply-chain operations.
Negative Factors
Low Profitability
Very low net profitability and modest returns on equity indicate that substantial operating activity is converting into limited bottom-line earnings. This reduces the cushion available to absorb cost, pricing, or volume pressure and makes durable earnings improvement dependent on margin recovery.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash Generation
Strong free cash flow growth and efficient cash conversion provide internal funding for capital expenditure, dividends, and transformation investment. This improves financial resilience and gives GrainCorp flexibility to manage seasonal working capital while sustaining its core supply-chain operations.
Read all positive factors
Graincorp Limited Class A (GNC) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$1.42B
Dividend Yield5.93%
Average Volume (3M)1.37M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.58
Revenue Growth-1.68%
EPS Growth-119.86%
CountryAU
Employees2,380
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryAgricultural Farm Products
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.06
Shares Outstanding222,323,640
10 Day Avg. Volume928,926
30 Day Avg. Volume1,374,259
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.40
Price to Book (P/B)1.41
Price to Sales (P/S)0.27
P/FCF Ratio11.19
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$7.15Price Target Upside14.71% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)0.31
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$6.83B
Graincorp Limited Class A Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
GrainCorp Limited operates as an agribusiness and processing enterprise with a broad international presence spanning Australasia, Asia, North America, Europe, the Middle East, and North Africa. Its activities are structured into two primary divisi...
How the Company Makes Money
GrainCorp generates revenue primarily by monetising key stages of the grain and oilseed value chain.
1) Grain handling, storage, and logistics fees: A major source of earnings comes from providing grain receival, storage, and handling services to...
Graincorp Limited Class A Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 13, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a balanced picture: strong operational execution (H1 underlying EBITDA $136M), continued dividend and portfolio optimisation, progress on transformation and sustainability initiatives, and clear capital discipline. However, cyclical headwinds — notably a global grain oversupply compressing margins, mark-to-market derivative effects in nutrition & energy, lower agri-energy demand and one-off exit and transformation costs — meaningfully constrained reported results. Management reiterated FY26 guidance and emphasised confidence in through-the-cycle earnings and transformation savings, but several near-term timing and commodity-market risks remain.Positive Updates
Solid Half-Year Underlying EBITDA
Reported underlying EBITDA of $136 million for H1 FY26 and the Board reaffirmed FY26 guidance of $200–$240 million underlying EBITDA and underlying NPAT of $20–$50 million.
Negative Updates
Compressed Margins from Global Grain Oversupply
Management cited a cyclical global oversupply of grains that depressed prices, reduced grower selling activity and compressed margins across the East Coast Australia (ECA) agribusiness, contributing to a lower agribusiness segment result year-on-year.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Solid Half-Year Underlying EBITDA
Reported underlying EBITDA of $136 million for H1 FY26 and the Board reaffirmed FY26 guidance of $200–$240 million underlying EBITDA and underlying NPAT of $20–$50 million.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
GrainCorp reaffirmed FY‑26 guidance of underlying EBITDA $200–240m and underlying NPAT $20–50m after reporting H1 underlying EBITDA of $136m and core cash of $163m, and the Board declared an ordinary fully‑franked interim dividend of $0.14 per share; full‑year CapEx is guided to $85–90m (H1 CapEx $30m, sustaining $15m). Management expects a normal net‑working‑capital unwind into H2, FY‑26 crush margins broadly in line with FY‑25 (H1 mark‑to‑market derivative losses expected to unwind in H2), and reiterated transformation targets of $5–10m run‑rate exit savings in FY‑26 and $20–30m EBITDA uplift on completion (H1 Transformation OpEx $17m); other H1 items included an estimated $16m loss on the GrainsConnect Canada exit. Key operational metrics cited were 277,000 t canola crushed, 3.3m t exported via ports (vs 3.2m pcp), 1.5m t bulk materials handled (up from 1.2m), 390,000 t animal nutrition sales (up from 370,000) and 26.5m t total grain handled, with management noting through‑the‑cycle earnings of ~$320m.Graincorp Limited Class A Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
65
Positive
Cash Flow
78
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Sep 2025 | Sep 2024 | Sep 2023 | Sep 2022 | Sep 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 7.08B | 7.29B | 6.49B | 8.21B | 7.85B | 5.48B |
| Gross Profit | 173.90M | 939.20M | 680.40M | 781.40M | 1.18B | 392.30M |
| EBITDA | 86.90M | 270.10M | 288.30M | 584.50M | 717.60M | 340.50M |
| Net Income | -13.60M | 39.90M | 61.80M | 249.70M | 380.40M | 139.30M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 3.97B | 2.69B | 2.90B | 3.47B | 3.41B | 2.75B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 287.40M | 511.30M | 596.50M | 734.80M | 322.40M | 126.60M |
| Total Debt | 1.90B | 833.90M | 940.00M | 1.21B | 1.10B | 967.60M |
| Total Liabilities | 2.62B | 1.29B | 1.40B | 1.83B | 1.89B | 1.49B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.35B | 1.40B | 1.50B | 1.59B | 1.45B | 1.21B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -52.30M | 176.70M | 76.00M | 509.00M | 364.20M | 123.30M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 19.40M | 249.10M | 130.70M | 575.30M | 445.00M | 177.90M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -76.40M | -76.90M | 33.70M | -91.20M | -105.40M | -55.10M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 16.00M | -257.40M | -177.10M | -197.30M | -143.80M | -120.90M |
Graincorp Limited Class A Technical Analysis
Positive
6.23
Price Trends
6.43
Positive
5.78
Positive
5.87
Positive
Market Momentum
>-0.01
Positive
46.63
Neutral
17.72
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:GNC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 6.23 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.60, below the 50-day MA of 6.43, and above the 200-day MA of 5.87, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of >-0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 46.63 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 17.72 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:GNC.
Graincorp Limited Class A Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 Neutral | AU$1.35B | 22.73 | 4.83% | 5.72% | 11.05% | -30.84% | |
68 Neutral | AU$1.42B | -101.67 | -0.99% | 5.93% | -1.68% | -119.86% | |
63 Neutral | AU$966.30M | 13.44 | 11.22% | 5.02% | -2.43% | -0.05% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
44 Neutral | AU$7.20M | -1.33 | -128.91% | ― | -83.83% | 84.80% | |
41 Neutral | AU$36.42M | -0.72 | -28.98% | 22.86% | -9.65% | -23.93% | |
40 Underperform | AU$1.23M | -1.71 | 304.44% | 9.23% | -99.88% | 50.00% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
AU:GNC
Graincorp Limited Class A
6.46
-1.72
-21.07%
AU:ELD
Elders Limited
6.39
-0.70
-9.82%
AU:WOA
Wide Open Agriculture Ltd.
0.01
-0.01
-52.38%
AU:WNR
Wingara Ag Ltd.
0.01
0.00
0.00%
AU:DBF
Duxton Farms Limited
0.34
-0.55
-62.01%
AU:SGLLV
Ricegrowers Ltd. Class B
14.25
-2.91
-16.94%
Graincorp Limited Class A Corporate Events
GrainCorp Cuts Share Count with On-Market Buy-Back
Oct 23, 2026
GrainCorp Limited has cancelled 5,245,597 ordinary fully paid Class A shares following an on-market buy-back completed on 23 October 2026. The reduction in issued capital reflects the company’s use of excess funds to repurchase equity, which...
GrainCorp Corrects Figures in Daily Share Buy-back Notice
Oct 11, 2026
GrainCorp Limited has issued a correction to a previously lodged daily share buy-back notice, revising the number of shares repurchased on 19 August 2025 to 75,575 instead of 76,149. The total consideration for that day’s buy-back has been a...
GrainCorp Dropped as S&P Dow Jones Unveils Broad ASX Index Rebalance
Sep 4, 2026
SP Dow Jones Indices has announced the September 2026 quarterly rebalance of the SP/ASX indices, with a series of additions and removals across the 50, 100, 200, and 300 benchmarks, while the SP/ASX 20 remains unchanged. The reshuffle reflects evo...
Macquarie Group Ends Substantial Holding in GrainCorp
Aug 4, 2026
Macquarie Group Limited and its controlled entities have lodged a notice stating they have ceased to be substantial holders in GrainCorp Limited, signaling a reduction in their voting interest below the regulatory threshold that requires disclosur...
Macquarie Group Withdraws as Substantial Holder in GrainCorp
Jul 27, 2026
Macquarie Group Limited and its controlled entities have lodged a formal notice confirming they have ceased to be substantial holders in GrainCorp Limited, under section 671B of the Corporations Act 2001. The filing, signed by Macquarie’s co...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.