Bapcor Ltd (BAP) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: €1.76B
• Dividend Yield: 3.08%
• Average Volume (3M): 830.54K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.06
• Revenue Growth: -0.30%
• EPS Growth: -267.50%
• Country: AU
• Employees: 5,400
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 91
• Industry: Specialty Retail
• EPS (TTM): 0.12
• Shares Outstanding: 339,412,500
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 896,100
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 830,541
• PEG Ratio: -1.17
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.79
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 11.70
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: €5.49
• Price Target Upside: 4.80% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7

• Rating: 47 Neutral
• Price Target: AU$5.00 ▼(-4.58%Downside)

Bapcor Ltd's stock score is primarily impacted by its weak financial performance and valuation concerns, highlighted by negative profitability metrics and a declining cash flow. Technical analysis further supports a bearish outlook with negative momentum indicators. The stock's dividend yield is a minor positive factor, but overall, the risks outweigh the benefits.

Bapcor Ltd Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Bapcor Limited sells and distributes vehicle parts, accessories, automotive equipment, and services and solutions in Australia, New Zealand, and Thailand. The company operates through four segments: Bapcor Trade, Bapcor Specialist Wholesale, Bapcor Retail, and Bapcor NZ. The Bapcor Trade segment offers automotive aftermarket parts and consumables to trade workshops for the service and repair of passenger and commercial vehicles; automotive workshop equipment, such as vehicle hoists and scanning equipment, including the servicing of the equipment; and automotive accessories and maintenance products to do-it-yourself vehicle owners. As of June 30, 2022, it operated 210 stores. The Bapcor Specialist Wholesale segment engages in the automotive aftermarket wholesale of brake, bearing, electrical, suspension, 4WD, cooling, diesel, and engine control systems and parts for light and heavy commercial vehicles. The Bapcor Retail segment operates 404 company owned and franchise stores comprising 136 Autobarn stores, 94 Autopro stores, 108 Midas and ABS stores, and 66 Opposite Lock stores. Bapcor NZ segment is involved in the wholesale of batteries, steering and suspension products, auto electrical and precision equipment, and vehicle workshop equipment; and diesel distribution activities. This segment also supplies automotive parts and accessories to workshops, trucks, and trailer parts through the Truck and Trailer Parts brand. It operates through a network of 76 stores in 88 locations, as well as 130 Battery Town and shock Shop locations. The company was formerly known as Burson Group Limited and changed its name to Bapcor Limited in July 2016. Bapcor Limited was founded in 1971 and is based in Melbourne, Australia.

How the Company Makes Money

Bapcor Ltd generates revenue through a diverse range of business segments. The company's primary revenue streams include the trade segment, which involves supplying automotive parts and accessories to workshops and mechanics, and the retail segment, which markets directly to consumers through various retail brands. Additionally, Bapcor benefits from its specialist wholesale segment, which focuses on niche markets such as heavy-duty trucks and electrical components. The company leverages strategic partnerships with suppliers and maintains a robust supply chain to ensure the availability of a wide product range, contributing significantly to its earnings. Bapcor's extensive distribution network and brand portfolio enable it to capture various market segments and drive revenue growth across the automotive aftermarket industry.

Bapcor Ltd Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Bapcor Ltd faces challenges with profitability and cash generation, as reflected in declining margins and a significant net loss. The balance sheet presents a more stable picture with manageable leverage, although the negative ROE is concerning. The company needs to address operational efficiency and improve cash flow to enhance financial stability.

Income Statement

The income statement reflects a decrease in gross profit margin from 19.8% in 2023 to 16.8% in 2024, alongside negative net income, significantly impacting profitability. The revenue growth rate is modest at 0.8% from 2023 to 2024, indicating stagnation. The EBIT margin has dropped to 5.5% from 8.6% in the previous year, and the EBITDA margin is negative, reflecting operational challenges. Overall, the financial health in terms of profitability is concerning.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.78 in 2024, indicating moderate leverage. Return on equity (ROE) is negative due to the net loss, which is a red flag. The equity ratio stands at 46.9%, reflecting a stable equity position relative to assets. Despite the net income challenges, the company maintains a reasonable balance between debt and equity.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals a significant decline in free cash flow from 2023 to 2024, dropping by 60.2%, which raises concerns about cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, which is problematic. However, free cash flow remains positive, indicating some capacity to manage operational needs despite profitability issues.

Breakdown	TTM	Jun 2024	Jun 2023	Jun 2022	Jun 2021	Jun 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.03B	2.04B	2.02B	1.84B	1.76B	1.46B
Gross Profit	935.03M	923.60M	400.40M	377.77M	353.93M	278.66M
EBITDA	157.49M	-28.49M	272.06M	285.63M	271.85M	211.19M
Net Income	-164.42M	-158.31M	106.45M	125.76M	118.77M	79.17M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.89B	1.90B	2.21B	2.09B	1.87B	1.75B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	89.48M	71.59M	78.63M	80.21M	39.60M	126.30M
Total Debt	628.90M	694.16M	642.42M	599.71M	430.56M	410.88M
Total Liabilities	971.62M	1.01B	1.08B	996.18M	826.91M	767.87M
Stockholders Equity	918.07M	893.51M	1.12B	1.09B	1.04B	980.25M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	162.92M	68.54M	172.38M	47.42M	80.82M	161.71M
Operating Cash Flow	189.38M	125.80M	213.73M	104.82M	135.86M	200.25M
Investing Cash Flow	-39.47M	-57.62M	-59.01M	-64.50M	-70.59M	-109.82M
Financing Cash Flow	-149.70M	-76.26M	-157.22M	771.00K	-150.84M	-11.95M

Bapcor Ltd Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 5.24
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:BAP, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 5.24 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.00, above the 50-day MA of 5.10, and above the 200-day MA of 4.83, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.04 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 61.89 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 73.26 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:BAP.

Bapcor Ltd Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SUL	77 Outperform	AU$3.47B	15.32	17.52%	4.16%	2.56%	-13.62%
JBH	75 Outperform	AU$11.83B	25.71	29.07%	3.14%	6.21%	0.20%
BLX	69 Neutral	AU$761.42M	25.48	17.54%	2.40%	5.33%	-4.25%
NCK	68 Neutral	AU$1.61B	23.34	29.48%	3.25%	9.36%	-21.69%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$10.85B	15.47	5.22%	1.89%	3.09%	-26.84%
BAP	47 Neutral	€1.76B	―	-16.06%	3.08%	-0.30%	-267.50%
TPLWF		$1.70B	321.56	5.83%	―	―	―

Bapcor Ltd Corporate Events

Bapcor Ltd Sees Increased Stake by Host-Plus Pty Limited

Bapcor Limited has announced a change in the interests of a substantial holder, Host-Plus Pty Limited, which has increased its voting power from 5.68% to 6.92%. This change reflects a significant shift in the ownership structure, potentially impacting the company’s governance and stakeholder dynamics.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:BAP) stock is a Hold with a A$5.40 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Bapcor Ltd stock, see the AU:BAP Stock Forecast page.

Bapcor Ltd Announces Cessation of Performance Rights

Bapcor Ltd has announced the cessation of 176,830 performance rights, as the conditions for these securities were not met or became incapable of being satisfied. This cessation may impact the company’s capital structure and could have implications for stakeholders, particularly in terms of employee incentives and future financial planning.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:BAP) stock is a Hold with a A$5.40 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Bapcor Ltd stock, see the AU:BAP Stock Forecast page.

Bapcor Ltd Announces Cessation of Performance Rights

Bapcor Ltd has announced the cessation of 369,288 performance rights, as the conditions for these securities were not met or became incapable of being satisfied as of June 30, 2025. This cessation may impact Bapcor’s capital structure and could have implications for stakeholders, particularly in terms of performance-based incentives and the company’s operational strategies moving forward.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:BAP) stock is a Hold with a A$5.40 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Bapcor Ltd stock, see the AU:BAP Stock Forecast page.

Bapcor Limited’s Strategic Presentation at Macquarie Conference

Bapcor Limited announced that its Executive Chair and CEO, Angus McKay, will present at the Macquarie Australia Conference. This presentation is significant as it offers insights into Bapcor’s current strategies and future plans, potentially impacting its market positioning and stakeholder interests.

Bapcor Appoints Kim Kerr as New CFO

Bapcor Limited has appointed Kim Kerr as its new Chief Financial Officer, effective 12 May 2025. Kim brings extensive experience from her previous role as CFO at Orica Ltd and will be instrumental in implementing Bapcor’s recently announced business strategy. Her appointment follows the resignation of former CFO George Saoud, who will assist in the transition.

Bapcor Limited Hosts Strategy Update and Distribution Centre Tour

Bapcor Limited announced a strategy update presentation and tour of its Queensland Distribution Centre, emphasizing its commitment to enhancing operational efficiency and stakeholder engagement. This initiative is part of Bapcor’s efforts to strengthen its market position and improve service delivery in the automotive aftermarket industry.

Bapcor Restructures Leadership to Propel Strategic Growth

Bapcor Limited has announced significant changes to its Group Leadership Team to support its revised business strategy aimed at future growth. The restructuring includes the appointment of Simon Bromell as Executive General Manager Trade and the merging of Specialist Networks and Wholesale businesses into a new ‘Networks’ segment, led by Craig Magill. These changes are intended to enhance Bapcor’s market competitiveness and operational efficiency, setting the stage for the company’s strategic priorities and growth plans.