Want to see AU:ASX full AI Analyst Report?
Top Page
ASX
(Sydney:ASX)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
AU$62.00
▲(11.77% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/17/26
The score is primarily constrained by weaker financial quality signals—volatile cash flow with FY2026 turning materially negative and a step-up in leverage—despite strong profitability. Technicals are supportive with a clear trend above key moving averages and positive momentum indicators. Valuation is reasonable-to-slightly premium (P/E ~21.7) but helped by a ~3.6% dividend yield, while the earnings call was balanced: solid growth and guidance reaffirmation offset by elevated cost/capex outlook and capital/regulatory pressures.
Positive Factors
High structural profitability
ASX combines strong revenue expansion with structurally high margins, supporting resilient earnings generation. This profitability provides capacity to fund technology investment and absorb cyclical changes in trading activity over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Higher leverage reduces flexibility
The step-change in leverage weakens financial flexibility and increases sensitivity to refinancing and funding conditions. It may constrain future capital allocation while raising the financial risk associated with ongoing technology and regulatory commitments.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High structural profitability
ASX combines strong revenue expansion with structurally high margins, supporting resilient earnings generation. This profitability provides capacity to fund technology investment and absorb cyclical changes in trading activity over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
ASX (ASX) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$10.77B
Dividend Yield3.92%
Average Volume (3M)654.95K
Price to Earnings (P/E)22.1
Beta (1Y)0.57
Revenue Growth2.73%
EPS Growth-3.76%
CountryAU
Employees1,453
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryFinancial - Data & Stock Exchanges
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.50
Shares Outstanding195,409,850
10 Day Avg. Volume836,253
30 Day Avg. Volume654,953
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-5.55
Price to Book (P/B)2.60
Price to Sales (P/S)5.90
P/FCF Ratio-3.63
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$58.12Price Target Upside4.78% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)2.63
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$1.33B
ASX Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
ASX Limited operates as a comprehensive, integrated exchange entity, managing diverse asset classes both within Australia and across global markets. The company facilitates marketplaces for various types of assets, such as shares, bonds, raw mater...
How the Company Makes Money
ASX makes money primarily by charging fees for the use of its markets and post-trade infrastructure, plus revenues from information and technology services. Key revenue streams typically include: (1) Trading services: fees linked to on-exchange tr...
ASX Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 12, 2026
(Q4-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 18, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a balanced picture: strong top-line performance, cross-business revenue growth, successful delivery of key technology milestones (notably CHESS Release 1), significant listings momentum and early FY'27 market strength. Offsetting these positives are substantial and continuing expense increases (driven by technology modernisation, Accelerate remediation and licence/consultancy costs), statutory profit impacts from significant items, a credit rating downgrade and capital accumulation requirements tied to regulatory commitments. Management has set clear FY'27 guidance (higher expense and capex ranges), reset governance and outlined multi-year transformation priorities, but near-term margin and capital pressures remain material.Positive Updates
Strong Top-Line Revenue Growth
Operating revenue of $1.25 billion, up 13.3% year-on-year, driven by volume and product activity across the portfolio.
Negative Updates
Expense Growth and Margin Pressure
Total expenses increased 21.1% to $557.4 million; EBITDA margin declined 180 bps to 61%. Excluding ASIC Inquiry costs, expense growth was 14.4% and EBITDA margin would be 63.4% (up 60 bps). FY'27 total expense growth guidance 18–21%.
Read all updates
Q4-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Top-Line Revenue Growth
Operating revenue of $1.25 billion, up 13.3% year-on-year, driven by volume and product activity across the portfolio.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
ASX reconfirmed FY‑27 guidance with total expense growth of 18–21% (operating expense growth excluding depreciation & amortisation 13–16%), noting ~5% of the FY‑27 expense increase will come from higher D&A; capital expenditure is guided to $180–200m in FY‑27 (FY‑28: $170–190m). The Board set a final FY‑26 dividend of $1.047/share (total FY‑26 dividend $2.065/share), operating the DRP with a 2.5% discount and lowering the payout to ~75% of underlying NPAT (target range 75–85%); ASX reiterated a medium‑term underlying ROE target of 12–14% and aims to accumulate $150m above the 31‑Dec‑2025 NTA by 30‑Jun‑2027 (currently $132.9m remaining). Management also highlighted liquidity and capital actions (holding $250m cash above regulatory requirements, a $400m undrawn debt facility and planned refinancing of $275m bonds in H1 FY‑27) and referred to FY‑26 metrics underpinning the guidance: operating revenue $1.25bn (+13.3%), total expenses $557.4m (+21.1%), underlying NPAT +5.2%, EBITDA margin 61% (‑180bps), underlying EPS $2.758 and underlying ROE 13.7% (up 10bps).ASX Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
80
Positive
Balance Sheet
52
Neutral
Cash Flow
28
Negative
| Breakdown | Jun 2026 | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.76B | 1.71B | 1.59B | 1.42B | 1.10B |
| Gross Profit | 1.62B | 1.61B | 1.51B | 1.34B | 991.70M |
| EBITDA | 1.19B | 1.27B | 1.18B | 819.40M | 796.50M |
| Net Income | 484.90M | 502.60M | 474.20M | 317.30M | 508.50M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 14.54B | 17.57B | 16.89B | 16.83B | 18.24B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 10.65B | 13.90B | 13.42B | 13.51B | 14.46B |
| Total Debt | 9.65B | 12.60B | 334.30M | 78.60M | 67.60M |
| Total Liabilities | 10.55B | 13.70B | 13.16B | 13.19B | 14.43B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.99B | 3.87B | 3.72B | 3.64B | 3.81B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -2.86B | 302.90M | 544.40M | -3.51B | 97.60M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -2.67B | 1.02B | 682.20M | -405.70M | 1.66B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -189.00M | -132.80M | -93.00M | -121.30M | -126.90M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -377.10M | -408.30M | -149.60M | -447.20M | -450.80M |
ASX Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | AU$22.57B | 26.52 | 27.34% | 2.56% | 0.11% | -2.37% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
64 Neutral | AU$10.77B | 22.13 | 12.29% | 3.86% | 2.73% | -3.76% | |
64 Neutral | AU$221.19M | 13.28 | 16.81% | 17.89% | 41.52% | 62.58% | |
63 Neutral | AU$1.13B | 24.95 | 9.94% | 2.07% | 19.06% | 47.53% | |
62 Neutral | AU$92.35B | 19.70 | 13.72% | 2.74% | 4.80% | 30.56% | |
45 Neutral | AU$4.28M | -0.82 | 236.32% | ― | -18.21% | 12.67% |
* Financial Sector Average
AU:ASX
ASX
55.32
-4.94
-8.20%
AU:CPU
Computershare Limited
39.27
2.37
6.41%
AU:MQG
Macquarie Group Limited
251.78
33.60
15.40%
AU:EZL
Euroz Hartleys Group Limited
1.43
0.47
49.84%
AU:ABE
Australian Bond Exchange Holdings Ltd.
0.03
>-0.01
-13.33%
AU:CCL
Cuscal Limited
5.49
1.88
51.87%
ASX Corporate Events
ASX Publishes 2026 Corporate Governance Statement
Aug 13, 2026
ASX Limited has released its Corporate Governance Statement for 2026, outlining the board-approved framework under which the exchange is governed. The publication reaffirms the company’s focus on transparency and regulatory compliance, and i...
ASX Lodges 2026 Appendix 4G Corporate Governance Disclosure
Aug 13, 2026
ASX Limited has lodged its 2026 Appendix 4G, outlining how the group complies with the ASX Corporate Governance Council’s principles and recommendations for the year ended 30 June 2026. The filing confirms that ASX’s corporate governan...
ASX Publishes Full-Year 2026 Financial Results Presentation
Aug 13, 2026
ASX Limited has released its full-year 2026 financial results presentation, outlining the exchange operator’s performance and key metrics for the period. The board-authorised release signals the official disclosure of ASX’s latest annu...
ASX lifts revenue and underlying profit despite higher costs and ASIC-related charges
Aug 13, 2026
ASX Limited reported a 13.3% rise in operating revenue to $1.25 billion for the year to 30 June 2026, with all four business units contributing and listings activity rebounding to 100 new entities and $32.6 billion in added market capitalisation. ...
ASX Shareholder Moves to Sue Former Directors Over CHESS Project
Aug 11, 2026
ASX Limited has disclosed that shareholder Rosherville Pty Ltd intends to seek Federal Court approval to launch a Statutory Derivative Action on ASX’s behalf against certain former officers and directors. The proposed claim alleges breaches ...
ASX July Data Shows Strong Growth in New Capital Raised
Aug 5, 2026
ASX Limited has reported its monthly activity figures for July 2026, highlighting its role as a key platform for company listings, secondary raisings and broader capital formation in the Australian market. The exchange continues to support a wide ...
ASX Reports Softer May Capital Raisings but Stronger Year-to-Date Growth
Jun 3, 2026
ASX Limited has reported its May 2026 activity figures, showing total new capital quoted of $3.5 billion, down sharply from $6.8 billion a year earlier, as well as a negative net new capital quoted position of $2.0 billion for the month. Despite t...
ASX files final director interest notice as Helen Lofthouse exits board
May 29, 2026
ASX Limited has announced the cessation of Helen Lofthouse as a director effective 29 May 2026, lodging a final director’s interest notice that details her remaining equity interests in the company. The filing confirms her holdings of fully ...
ASX lifts tech spending guidance, trims ROE target and exits Sympli venture
May 26, 2026
ASX has issued guidance for FY27 indicating total expense growth of 18% to 21%, driven mainly by an accelerated technology modernisation program, remediation work following the ASIC inquiry and investment in customer-focused growth initiatives. Ca...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.