Want to see ATI full AI Analyst Report?
Top Page
ATI
(NYSE:ATI)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:75Outperform
Price Target:
$212.00
▼(-1.50% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/06/26
ATI scores well on improving fundamentals and cash generation, reinforced by a strongly positive earnings call with materially raised full-year guidance and record backlog. Technicals also support the uptrend with price above key moving averages, while the main constraint on the score is valuation (high P/E) alongside still-meaningful leverage.
Positive Factors
Record backlog and visibility
The record backlog provides substantial revenue visibility and supports planning across ATI’s aerospace and defense businesses. Its growth, conversion profile, and increasing representation of long-term and sole-source positions can reinforce customer relationships and create a durable base for future sales.
Negative Factors
Meaningful leverage
Debt remains roughly comparable with equity, so ATI is exposed to greater financial and refinancing pressure if end-market demand weakens or costs rise. Although leverage has improved from earlier years, interest obligations can still constrain investment flexibility during a cyclical downturn.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Record backlog and visibility
The record backlog provides substantial revenue visibility and supports planning across ATI’s aerospace and defense businesses. Its growth, conversion profile, and increasing representation of long-term and sole-source positions can reinforce customer relationships and create a durable base for future sales.
Read all positive factors
ATI (ATI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$26.12B
Dividend Yield1.81%
Average Volume (3M)1.76M
Price to Earnings (P/E)55.0
Beta (1Y)1.80
Revenue Growth4.58%
EPS Growth15.71%
CountryUS
Employees7,600
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryManufacturing - Metal Fabrication
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)3.49
Shares Outstanding136,170,380
10 Day Avg. Volume1,320,148
30 Day Avg. Volume1,758,398
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio11.26
Price to Book (P/B)8.96
Price to Sales (P/S)3.52
P/FCF Ratio48.44
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.10
Enterprise Value/Revenue6.11
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit26.18
Enterprise Value/Ebitda33.16
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$244.17Price Target Upside13.44% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)5.05
Revenue Forecast (FY)$5.13B
ATI Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Globally, ATI Inc. stands as a premier manufacturer and supplier of specialized materials and complex components. The enterprise's operations are strategically divided into two primary divisions: High Performance Materials & Components (HPMC) and ...
How the Company Makes Money
ATI makes money by selling specialty metals and engineered products to customers that require high-performance materials and components. Its revenues primarily come from (1) supplying titanium and nickel-based alloy materials and products into aer...
ATI Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 06, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 03, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a clearly positive picture: strong Q2 results that materially exceeded guidance, significant margin expansion, record backlog, a meaningfully raised full‑year outlook across EBITDA, EPS and free cash flow, and clear evidence of AA&S becoming a durable second earnings engine. There are execution and timing headwinds—primarily HPMC qualification delays that shifted revenue into the second half, a quarter‑over‑quarter decline in Specialty Energy, and working capital/inventory build to support future ramps—but management provided detailed plans (Elevation, targeted investments, customer‑funded capex) and reaffirmed confidence in sequential H2 strength and sustainable mid‑ to long‑term improvements. Overall, highlights substantially outweigh the lowlights.Positive Updates
Strong Adjusted EBITDA and Margin Expansion
Second quarter adjusted EBITDA of $284 million, up 37% year-over-year and $29 million above the high end of prior guidance. Consolidated adjusted EBITDA margin expanded 440 basis points year-over-year to 22.6%.
Negative Updates
HPMC Qualification Timing Delays
Qualification timing at the new Mexico facility and the EB2 titanium furnace shifted certain HPMC shipments into future periods; management estimated ~$30–$40 million of revenue was moved from H1 into the second half, delaying associated margins and cash conversion.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Adjusted EBITDA and Margin Expansion
Second quarter adjusted EBITDA of $284 million, up 37% year-over-year and $29 million above the high end of prior guidance. Consolidated adjusted EBITDA margin expanded 440 basis points year-over-year to 22.6%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
ATI meaningfully raised its 2026 outlook, targeting adjusted EBITDA of $1.135–$1.185 billion (midpoint $1.160B, ~35% YoY), adjusted EPS $4.90–$5.18 (midpoint $5.04, +56% YoY) and adjusted free cash flow $550–$600M (midpoint $575M, +51% YoY, implying ~$430M of FCF in H2); quarterly guidance is Q3 adj. EBITDA $305–$315M (adj. EPS $1.31–$1.37; midpoint +38% YoY, +9% sequential) with Q4 seen as the strongest quarter (~$335M EBITDA implied, ~ $1.35B annualized exit rate). Management now expects full‑year consolidated EBITDA margins in the low‑20% range, consolidated incremental margins of ~50% (up from 40%), HPMC full‑year EBITDA in the mid‑20% range and AA&S in the low‑to‑mid‑20% range; they assume high‑80s % FCF conversion with a >90% conversion target. Other guide detail: record backlog $4.4B (up 18% YoY, 7% seq; ~70% converts in 12 months), Q2 adj. EBITDA $284M and margin 22.6%, Q2 FCF $69M / H1 FCF $143M (vs. H1 2025 use of $50M), managed working capital 34% of sales, gross CapEx $280–$300M with $55–$65M customer‑funded and customer‑funded CapEx supporting capacity that should raise nickel capacity ~15–20% by early 2028 and add ~$350M of annual revenue by 2028; $50M of repurchases completed in Q2 with ~$495M remaining.ATI Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
63
Positive
Cash Flow
74
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 4.72B | 4.59B | 4.36B | 4.17B | 3.84B | 2.80B |
| Gross Profit | 1.10B | 999.80M | 913.50M | 826.30M | 714.20M | 334.00M |
| EBITDA | 869.50M | 801.10M | 696.40M | 564.60M | 698.00M | 511.00M |
| Net Income | 475.80M | 404.30M | 367.80M | 410.80M | 323.50M | 184.60M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 5.74B | 5.10B | 5.23B | 4.99B | 4.45B | 4.29B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 783.00M | 416.70M | 721.20M | 743.90M | 584.00M | 687.70M |
| Total Debt | 2.19B | 1.95B | 1.90B | 2.18B | 1.75B | 1.84B |
| Total Liabilities | 3.74B | 3.18B | 3.28B | 3.50B | 3.29B | 3.45B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.88B | 1.80B | 1.85B | 1.37B | 1.05B | 685.60M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 526.30M | 333.70M | 168.10M | -114.80M | 94.00M | -136.50M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 805.30M | 614.30M | 407.20M | 85.90M | 224.90M | 16.10M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -232.10M | -234.50M | -159.60M | -193.20M | -126.70M | -77.30M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -110.70M | -699.90M | -260.40M | 267.20M | -201.90M | 103.00M |
ATI Technical Analysis
Positive
215.23
Price Trends
202.79
Negative
194.50
Negative
169.06
Positive
Market Momentum
-2.56
Negative
48.29
Neutral
61.86
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ATI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 215.23 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 188.54, above the 50-day MA of 202.79, and above the 200-day MA of 169.06, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -2.56 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 48.29 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 61.86 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ATI.
ATI Risk Analysis
ATI disclosed 60 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. ATI reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
ATI Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
84 Outperform | $13.43B | 15.55 | 27.33% | 1.07% | 14.81% | 21.29% | |
76 Outperform | $3.06B | 18.59 | 16.19% | 1.23% | 18.44% | 54.40% | |
75 Outperform | $26.12B | 54.97 | 26.59% | 1.81% | 4.58% | 15.71% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
53 Neutral | $191.09M | -3.15 | -152.73% | 2.14% | 3.27% | -1069.57% | |
50 Neutral | $1.36B | -21.33 | -3.18% | 2.87% | 31.54% | -171.56% | |
49 Neutral | $385.31M | -18.20 | -6.63% | ― | 11.77% | -196.68% |
* Industrials Sector Average
ATI
ATI
191.84
108.86
131.19%
AP
Ampco-Pittsburgh
9.25
7.04
318.55%
MLI
Mueller Industries
60.71
12.13
24.98%
WOR
Worthington Industries
62.45
7.77
14.21%
RYZ
Ryerson Holdings
26.23
4.27
19.46%
MEC
Mayville Engineering Company
15.11
1.86
14.04%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.