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ATI (ATI)
NYSE:ATI
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ATI (ATI) AI Stock Analysis

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ATI

ATI

(NYSE:ATI)

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Outperform 74 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:74Outperform
Price Target:
$110.00
▲(11.14% Upside)
ATI's strong earnings call performance and robust financials are the primary drivers of its overall score. The company's raised guidance and significant growth in key sectors bolster its outlook. However, technical indicators suggest caution due to overbought conditions, and the high P/E ratio indicates potential overvaluation. Continued focus on debt reduction and maintaining cash flow growth will be crucial for sustaining positive momentum.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
Consistent revenue growth indicates strong demand for ATI's products, particularly in aerospace and defense, supporting long-term business stability.
Market Position
Dominance in aerospace and defense sectors strengthens ATI's market position, ensuring sustained demand and competitive advantage.
Cash Flow Generation
Improved cash flow generation enhances ATI's financial flexibility, enabling strategic investments and shareholder returns.
Negative Factors
Debt Levels
While leverage has improved, ongoing reliance on debt could limit financial flexibility and increase risk during downturns.
Contract Restructuring
Restructuring contracts can impact revenue stability, potentially affecting short-term financial performance and predictability.
Moderation in Defense Shipments
Moderation in defense shipments could slow revenue growth, affecting short-term financial performance despite overall demand strength.

ATI (ATI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

ATI Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionATI Inc. manufactures and sells specialty materials and components worldwide. The company operates in two segments: High Performance Materials & Components (HPMC) and Advanced Alloys & Solutions (AA&S). The HPMC segment produces various materials, including titanium and titanium-based alloys, nickel- and cobalt-based alloys and superalloys, advanced powder alloys and other specialty materials, in long product forms, such as ingot, billet, bar, rod, wire, shapes and rectangles, and seamless tubes, as well as precision forgings, components, and machined parts. The segment serves aerospace and defense, medical, and energy markets. The AA&S segment produces zirconium and related alloys, including hafnium and niobium, nickel-based alloys, titanium and titanium-based alloys, and specialty alloys in a variety of forms, such as plate, sheet, and precision rolled strip products. It also provides hot-rolling conversion services, including carbon steel products, and titanium products. This segment offers its solutions to the energy, aerospace and defense, automotive, and electronics markets. The company was formerly known as Allegheny Technologies Incorporated. ATI Inc. was founded in 1960 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.
How the Company Makes MoneyATI generates revenue through the sale of its high-performance materials, primarily focusing on aerospace and defense sectors, which represent a significant portion of its business. The company earns money by supplying these specialized materials to major OEMs (Original Equipment Manufacturers) and other manufacturers who require high-quality materials for their products. Key revenue streams include contracts for aerospace components, sales of titanium and alloy products, and services related to material processing. Additionally, ATI has established strategic partnerships with leading companies in the aerospace and energy sectors, enhancing its market position and enabling it to capitalize on growing demand for advanced materials. The company's focus on innovation, including research and development of new materials and processes, also contributes to its ability to maintain competitive pricing and secure long-term contracts.

ATI Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Oct 28, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jan 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflected a strong financial and operational performance with significant growth in the aerospace and defense sectors, leading to increased full-year guidance. Despite some moderation expected in defense shipments and a contract restructuring impacting revenue, the positive aspects overwhelmingly outweigh the negatives.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Revenue and Earnings Performance
Revenue was up 7% year-over-year, exceeding $1.1 billion. Adjusted EPS was $0.85, $0.10 above the high end of the projected range. Adjusted EBITDA totaled $225 million.
Aerospace and Defense Growth
Total aerospace and defense revenue rose 21% year-over-year, reaching an all-time high of 70% of total revenue. Jet engine revenue grew 19% year-over-year.
Operational Excellence
Productivity gains achieved with higher uptime, improved first pass yield, and expanded manufacturing capabilities. Expanded powder atomization capacity by over 25%.
Increased Full Year Guidance
Adjusted EBITDA for 2025 now forecast between $848 million and $858 million, a $28 million increase at the midpoint. Adjusted free cash flow now forecast between $330 million and $370 million, a $40 million increase at the midpoint.
Defense Segment Outperformance
Defense revenue increased 51% year-over-year and 36% sequentially. Record performance across naval nuclear, rotary craft, missile, and armored vehicle programs.
Negative Updates
Moderation in Defense Shipments
Significant defense shipments in Q3 will moderate in Q4, though overall demand remains strong.
Contract Restructuring Impact on Revenue
A contract transition to conversion-only structure resulted in a $10 million effect on revenue.
Company Guidance
In the ATI Third Quarter 2025 conference call, the company reported strong financial performance, exceeding projections with a 7% year-over-year revenue increase, totaling over $1.1 billion. Adjusted EPS reached $0.85, surpassing the high end of ATI's projected range by $0.10. Adjusted EBITDA was $225 million, with a margin exceeding 20%, nearly double the margin from 2019. The High Performance Materials & Components segment achieved margins above 24%, while the Advanced Alloys & Solutions segment exceeded 17%. Operational cash flow for the year reached $299 million, a $273 million improvement from the previous year. The company returned $150 million to shareholders through share repurchases, with $120 million remaining under authorization. Given this performance, ATI raised its full-year guidance, projecting 2025 adjusted EBITDA between $848 million and $858 million, a $28 million increase at the midpoint, and adjusted free cash flow between $330 million and $370 million, a $40 million increase at the midpoint. The aerospace and defense (A&D) segment was a significant driver, with A&D revenue rising 21% year-over-year in Q3, making up 70% of total revenue. Jet engine revenue grew by 19% year-over-year, and ATI's order book extended into mid-2027, ensuring continued growth and profitability.

ATI Financial Statement Overview

Summary
ATI exhibits strong financial performance with consistent revenue growth and healthy profit margins. The company has improved its leverage position, although further debt reduction could enhance financial stability. Cash flow generation has significantly improved, supporting operational and strategic initiatives. Continued focus on cost management and debt reduction will be key to sustaining this positive trajectory.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
ATI's income statement shows strong performance with a consistent increase in revenue over the years, highlighted by a TTM revenue growth rate of 1.65%. The company maintains healthy margins, with a TTM gross profit margin of 21.43% and a net profit margin of 9.71%. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are also robust at 10.98% and 16.34%, respectively. This indicates effective cost management and operational efficiency. However, the slight decline in EBIT margin from the previous year suggests potential pressure on operating costs.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
ATI's balance sheet reflects a moderate financial position. The debt-to-equity ratio has improved to 1.12 in the TTM, indicating a reduction in leverage compared to previous years. The return on equity is strong at 24.80%, showcasing effective utilization of shareholder funds. However, the equity ratio stands at 34.12%, suggesting a moderate reliance on debt financing. Continued focus on reducing debt could enhance financial stability.
Cash Flow
78
Positive
ATI's cash flow statement demonstrates significant improvement, with a TTM free cash flow growth rate of 115.25%. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.64, indicating good cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.75 further supports the company's ability to generate cash. Despite these strengths, maintaining consistent cash flow growth remains crucial for future financial flexibility.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue4.58B4.36B4.17B3.84B2.80B2.98B
Gross Profit1.00B913.50M826.30M714.20M334.00M292.80M
EBITDA778.90M670.70M539.10M678.50M492.50M198.40M
Net Income444.80M367.80M410.80M323.50M184.60M-1.57B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets5.00B5.23B4.99B4.45B4.29B4.03B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments372.20M721.20M743.90M584.00M687.70M645.90M
Total Debt1.91B1.90B2.18B1.75B1.84B1.57B
Total Liabilities3.18B3.28B3.50B3.29B3.45B3.39B
Stockholders Equity1.71B1.85B1.37B1.05B685.60M521.10M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow506.70M168.10M-114.80M94.00M-136.50M30.40M
Operating Cash Flow679.40M407.20M85.90M224.90M16.10M166.90M
Investing Cash Flow-130.40M-159.60M-193.20M-126.70M-77.30M-128.70M
Financing Cash Flow-606.80M-260.40M267.20M-201.90M103.00M116.90M

ATI Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price98.97
Price Trends
50DMA
81.84
Positive
100DMA
82.77
Positive
200DMA
71.64
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
4.97
Negative
RSI
68.18
Neutral
STOCH
88.71
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ATI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 98.97 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 87.31, above the 50-day MA of 81.84, and above the 200-day MA of 71.64, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 4.97 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 68.18 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 88.71 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ATI.

ATI Risk Analysis

ATI disclosed 29 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. ATI reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

ATI Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
$11.75B15.8226.06%0.90%15.71%29.60%
$13.45B31.9225.43%7.75%6.84%
$15.74B38.6423.16%0.25%2.40%81.54%
$3.00B9.6027.28%0.74%1.55%701.41%
$2.79B26.2411.50%1.25%-39.38%175.22%
$7.09B29.5013.86%0.31%1.19%-7.78%
$10.79B15.437.44%2.01%2.89%-14.66%
* Industrials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
ATI
ATI
98.97
45.46
84.96%
AZZ
AZZ
99.85
23.04
30.00%
CRS
Carpenter Technology
315.90
162.26
105.61%
MLI
Mueller Industries
105.87
23.82
29.03%
WOR
Worthington Industries
56.09
17.93
46.99%
ESAB
ESAB Corporation
116.82
-5.32
-4.36%

ATI Corporate Events

ATI Inc. Reports Strong Q3 2025 Earnings Growth
Oct 29, 2025

ATI Inc., a global leader in high performance materials and solutions, primarily serves the aerospace and defense sectors, along with electronics, medical, and specialty energy markets. The company is renowned for its innovative materials science solutions that enable advanced applications across various industries.

ATI Inc. Reports Strong Earnings and Raises Guidance
Oct 29, 2025

ATI Inc. recently held its earnings call, revealing a robust financial and operational performance, particularly in the aerospace and defense sectors. The company reported significant growth, leading to an increased full-year guidance. While there are expectations of moderation in defense shipments and some revenue impact due to contract restructuring, the overall sentiment remains highly positive.

Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
ATI Establishes $125 Million Securitization Facility
Positive
Sep 25, 2025

On September 19, 2025, ATI Specialty Materials, LLC, a subsidiary of ATI Inc., established a three-year, $125 million accounts receivable securitization facility. This move involves selling or contributing receivables to a special purpose entity, which can borrow up to $125 million. As of September 25, 2025, $80 million was outstanding under the facility, which is expected to enhance ATI’s financial operations and flexibility.

The most recent analyst rating on (ATI) stock is a Buy with a $87.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ATI stock, see the ATI Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
ATI Announces CFO Retirement and Board Expansion
Neutral
Sep 10, 2025

On September 9, 2025, ATI Inc. announced the upcoming retirement of Donald P. Newman, its Executive Vice President, Finance and Chief Financial Officer, effective March 1, 2026. To ensure a smooth transition, Newman will provide consulting services for ten months post-retirement. Concurrently, ATI’s Board of Directors expanded from ten to twelve members, appointing Elizabeth Lund and Jean Lydon-Rodgers as independent directors, effective November 1, 2025. Both bring extensive experience in aerospace and defense, enhancing the board’s expertise. These changes reflect ATI’s strategic focus on leadership continuity and strengthening its market position.

The most recent analyst rating on (ATI) stock is a Buy with a $84.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ATI stock, see the ATI Stock Forecast page.

ATI Inc. Reports Strong Q2 2025 Financial Results
Aug 1, 2025

ATI Inc. is a global producer of high-performance materials and solutions, primarily serving the aerospace and defense sectors, as well as critical applications in electronics, medical, and specialty energy industries.

ATI Inc. Earnings Call Highlights Growth and Challenges
Aug 1, 2025

ATI Inc. Reports Robust Earnings Amidst Market Challenges

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Oct 29, 2025